Ukraine: The Aristoblyats

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Internet VFW > Ukraine: The Aristoblyats

A.o.D.: Jan 15, 2006

CabooseRvB posted:

This war kicked off towards the very end of Winter. I cannot fathom how brutal it will become if it lasts to this Winter.

Frozen grounds would give the tanks a little more options to maneuver since the mud this spring kept them on the roads, making them very juicy targets.

Isn't there usually another rasputitsa in the autumn? I seem to recall that being a factor in the lead up to Stalingrad until the ground froze.

# ? Aug 15, 2022 15:53

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? Jun 5, 2024 22:36

Soul Dentist: Mar 17, 2009

Will there be any tanks left by winter?

# ? Aug 15, 2022 16:12

Wibla: Feb 16, 2011

Soul Dentist posted:

Will there be any tanks left by winter?

Probably not by t(h)anksgiving :sun:

# ? Aug 15, 2022 16:16

Valtonen: May 13, 2014; Tanks still suck but you don't gotta hand it to the Axis either.

If by �tank� you mean a vehicle that at some point iin history was considered an MBT and has a (hopefully working) gun that can move under Its own power, propably. Still a ton of rusted down t55s available to pull from deep storage, and they could propably be scraped for parts to make working ones in 3-1 ratio by christmas if russia really tries.

If you mean a tank with at least most of Its systems functioning, having at least a rudimentary night fighting capability and considered to meet at least Late 1980s USSR standards�

# ? Aug 15, 2022 16:25

Nick Soapdish: Apr 27, 2008

https://twitter.com/Deergsdoom/status/1558890257197809670?t=iX9BJApWrprRbvEVj-MKiA&s=19

Good to see orb pondering is back

# ? Aug 15, 2022 19:45

DJ_Mindboggler: Nov 21, 2013

Nick Soapdish posted:

https://twitter.com/Deergsdoom/status/1558890257197809670?t=iX9BJApWrprRbvEVj-MKiA&s=19

Good to see orb pondering is back

They are not all accounted for, the lost seeing stones. Someone may be watching.

# ? Aug 15, 2022 20:07

Comrade Blyatlov: Aug 4, 2007; should have picked four fingers

That's not a seeing stone it's a spicy rock and Igor there is moments from being a pile of mush

# ? Aug 15, 2022 20:47

Gaius Marius: Oct 9, 2012

The zone is expanding

# ? Aug 15, 2022 20:48

Woodchip: Mar 28, 2010

# ? Aug 15, 2022 23:22

madeintaipei: Jul 13, 2012

Humbug Scoolbus posted:

I enlisted in the 80s stayed into the 90s and wound up getting deployed to Honduras, Panama, Kuwait, and Somalia! What's this Afghani-thingy? Isn't that where all the Soviets are?

I say this with the utmost respect:

Humbug Schoolbus so old, they remember when it was Operation Bomb Useless Jungle.

From what you've shared, you had an interesting career. "No, jumping out of planes is too dangerous. Let me dive instead!"

# ? Aug 15, 2022 23:51

CabooseRvB: Aug 12, 2022; I miss Sheila :c

It depends on when the 'Rainy' Seasons are in Ukraine.

Worldbank.org posted:

Ukraine has a mostly temperate climate, with the exception of the Southern Coast of Crimea which has a subtropical Mediterranean climate. The country enjoys sufficient amount of sunshine and year-round rainfall, highly concentrated during the summer months (May to August). Rainfall is highly varied depending upon area of the country and seasonal variation patterns.

Ukraine has an annual mean temperature of 7-9�C. Mean summer temperatures (May to August) range from less than 18�C to 22�C. Mean winter (December to March) temperatures range from -4.8�С to 2�C. Precipitation falls predominately in summer to fall months, with June and July typically having the highest rainfall (67 mm).

The 'Rasputitsa' during the later stages of Op Barbarossa was just one of many, many other factors that led to the collapse of the German offensive leading into Russia (-cough- horse logistics trying to sustain a front line that spans from the Baltics to Crimea -cough-)

Just by the quick glance of some basic climatology of the country, I don't think there would be massive tracts of frozen land or any of the major rivers freezing over thankfully. If that were true, then that gives the Russians additional options for crossing.

# ? Aug 16, 2022 01:04

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

Intro then excerpts as I decide, based on however I feel.

From Friday, 12AUG. https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3127068/senior-military-official-holds-a-background-briefing/

Highlights:
-US does not know who or how Saky Airfield was struck, but knows there was significant damage or destruction to multiple aircraft. Not we won't talk about it, flat out "do not know."
-ATACMS were not used to strike Saky Airfield, because the US has never given Ukraine any ATACMS.
-Russians have fired artillery from vicinity of Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and has placed forces around it, but no expectation that Ukraine plans to strike the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant directly versus targeting Russian combat forces in vicinity of the power plant grounds.
-SMO has no information on filtration camps
-SMO chooses not to answer whether the war could be characterized as a stalemate, suggests the press ask Ukraine. (This is different from a few months ago, when the US rep said they would NOT call it a stalemate, because Russia was actively advancing and taking territory in the Donbas).
-Cautious optimism about grain shipments, given recent shipment success without interruption
-No evidence of Russia importing weapons from Syria, etc, other than open source reports of discussion about possible Iranian drone purchases
-SMO declines to assess whether or not Ukraine is capable of carrying out a Kherson offensive (but says Ukraine has achieved a lot, often exceeding expectations)

SMO Press Brief posted:

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Thanks, [Staff]. Hi, everybody, good afternoon. So 170th day of Russia's illegal and unprovoked large scale invasion of Ukraine. Let me just give you a quick rundown of what we're seeing from north to south on the battlefield in particular.

So, you know, across the -- across the area of operations, Russia is continuing to employ artillery and indirect fires indiscriminately. I'll talk on that here in a minute. In the north, in Kharkiv, we're actually seeing some Ukrainian gains. Again, these aren't -- these aren't large gains but they're -- they're certainly gaining, and in -- in many cases, have the Russians on their -- on their heels.

As you travel a little further south, Siversk, Bakhmut, the Russians continue to throw a bunch of things against the Ukrainians in an attempt to continue to gain ground in Bakhmut, and although they have made some gains, they're very small and -- and those gains have come at a pretty decent cost for the Russians. Very similar to what we saw in terms of those impacts on the Russians up in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, I think, six weeks ago or so, in terms of the impact that those very small gains are having on the Russians.

I would point out, as I was kind of alluding to earlier, since the last time I talked to you, the UN -- the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights estimates 600 civilians that have been killed over the course of that time period. And again, that's largely due to the indiscriminate bombing or bombardment that -- that the Russians conduct, and that -- there's -- that number is probably higher, quite honestly.

In Zaporizhzhia, no particular updates on the nuclear power plant. It is under Russian control and I'd just point you to the IAEA's comments in terms of, you know, there's -- there's no immediate threat to nuclear safety, but that could change at any moment.

In vicinity of Kherson, we have seen Ukrainian offensive efforts. We assess that they're continuing to -- to press hard on the Russians in -- in Kherson. We know recently, as an example, that they continue to inflict damage on -- on bridging of the Russians. And -- and, you know, again, I'd -- I'd comment very similar to how they're working in the north, have the Russians on the defensive.

And then in Crimea, other than, you know -- and I -- and I know you'll likely want to talk about the -- about what happened in Saky. I, quite honestly, like you, don't have any answers for that, any -- any particular answers. I -- I can tell you that it was not an ATACMS, because we have not given them ATACMS. But -- but as you do know, they -- it was a pretty significant impact to -- to Russian air and -- and air personnel.

In the maritime environment, about a half dozen ships underway right now in the Black Sea, including some Kalibr-capable ships, and -- and, you know, we, like the rest of the world, have been pleased to see that the grain shipments are -- continue to flow out of Odesa and then south to -- to a good portion of the world that needs that grain.

...

Q: Hi, thank you for doing this. I realize you probably don't -- aren't able to take too much on the airbase, but is the U.S. able to assess or confirm that indeed this was a Ukrainian strike of some kind? And is there any way for you to tell if it came from the air or if it was some sort of ground attack?

And then secondly, you talked about Ukrainian gains around Kharkiv. Can you just give us a little bit more on that? What -- you said they're -- they have Russians on their heels, they're gaining. Are they -- give us a little bit bigger picture on what exactly is happening there.

Thank you.

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Yeah, sure, Lita. On the first one, you all are looking at the same picture as we are and -- and we haven't been able to make any determination as to was it some -- something that was fired or something that was detonated on the ground.

What we can tell you is exactly what you all are -- are reporting, as well, is that, again, there were a number of -- of Russian aircraft, fighters, fighter bombers, I think a surveillance aircraft, that were destroyed, in addition to a pretty significant cache of munitions for -- or ammunition dump, which my guess is led to, you know, the -- the worst part of that, and then some structures.

I think the -- the airfield was damaged, as well, certainly an impact to the Russians' ability to prosecute any kind of air activity out of that portion of the airfield, but again, those were all the things that -- you know, I'm seeing the same things you are in that regard and, you know, I -- so I don't have anything more on that.

And then on your second one, I'd just -- I'd give you an anecdote -- and I -- so I got this -- this is open source that I got, as well, and I was -- I was reading about the Ukrainian gains up to the east of Izyum, in a town -- and I'll -- I'm going to -- I'll butcher this -- but a town of Velyka -- and I think that's spelled V-E-L-Y-K-A -- Komyshuvakha -- and that's K-O-M-Y-S-H-U-V-A-K-H-A. So if -- if -- if you're of Ukrainian descent, I'm sorry if I just butchered that.

Anyways, what -- the open source I saw was that the Ukrainians had attacked Russian positions at that location -- it was an outpost located at the intersection of two -- two main roads -- and that the Ukrainians had isolated and surrounded the Russian position and that the Russians were unable to get any kind of artillery support.

I think what you're finding is you -- you've got Ukrainians who -- they are -- they are, you know, across the -- the area of operations, working to take it to the Russians. And as we've talked about in the past, you know, you -- the things that are going against the Russians, which is, as, you know, we all know, a pretty large force, the things going against the Russians are the continued impacts on their morale, their ability to sustain themselves, all of which have been impacted by the Ukrainians' ability to -- to get after command and control, ammunition locations, sustainment or logistics locations, all -- all really significant and I think that's having a large effect on the Russians on the front lines.

And I'll stop there.

...

Q: Thank you. Two quick questions. Just to make sure that I understand correctly, it's not that you can't tell us who carried out the attack on the airbase, you just don't know?

And secondly, just on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, can you say definitively -- or -- or maybe differently -- can you say that you -- you are not aware of any Ukrainian strikes in or near the nuclear power plant in recent days?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: So on the first one, I don't know. I just flat out don't know. But if -- if you all find out and report it, I'll be happy to hear it.

The -- on the Ukrainian piece down in -- in -- at the nuclear power plant, I think there are -- I mean, there were certainly reports of -- of indirect fire around to the �sort of landed in the vicinity, the -- the power plant. We -- we know that the Russians have been there for some time. We also know that the Russians have fired artillery, I think specifically, rockets from around the power plant.

I don't have any belief that the Ukrainians, who know very well what the impacts of hitting that power plant would be, have an interest in hitting the power plant. It just doesn't make any sense. They -- you know, they, as -- as you know, if you go back, you know, I -- I -- back to the only major nuclear power plant issue in that part of the world, they're the ones that paid a huge price for that before. They certainly know the impacts of a nuclear disaster. So I've got to believe that the Ukrainians have no interest in doing anything that would cause any kind of disaster around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

...

Q: Hello, thank you. The -- so I would like to go back to the -- the -- the Russian base in Crimea. You said that it was not an ATACMS missile. Would it be a problem if this base in Crimea had been struck by an American weapon? Would it be a problem for U.S.?

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Well, we haven't -- we haven't provided anything that allows -- or that would -- would enable them to strike into Crimea. You know, as I mentioned, I -- I say ATACMS very particularly because there've been a lot of questions about ATACMS, and -- and again, I'd just tell you, we've -- you know, we haven't given them to them so...

I -- I think, you know, what we want the Ukrainians to do is fight the -- the -- the fight against the Russians the way that they would fight it. And you know, we don't have -- we're not telling them how to -- how to do business. They're making it a choice as to how they want to fight. We -- we have told them in the past that we have given them munitions that allow them to fight Russians in Ukraine, and -- and you know, other than that, this is a Ukrainian war, so they're the ones that select the targets.

...

Q: Thanks very much for -- for doing this. It seems, like, from a -- the last couple of briefings that we've done that, you know, the situation in some ways is kind of steady. Would it be fair to characterize the war as a stalemate? And if so, what more does Ukraine need from the U.S. and other allies to start tipping this more in its favor? Also curious if you have any updated assessments of Russia's use of cyber operations to support its efforts in Ukraine, or any new information on Russia's use of filtration camps. Thank you.

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: On the last, I -- I'd tell you, no. I -- I don't have any information on the filtration camps or the -- or Russian use of cyber. And -- and I -- you know, I -- I mean, I hate to say I'll direct you to the Ukrainians, but I think the Ukrainians would probably be able to answer that better.

...
Q: Thank you so much. I was wondering if you could talk about the grain ships that we're seeing, and what went into being able to clear that lane to allow for ships to be able to come to and from Ukraine.

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: You -- you know, Heather, we -- we have not, as you know, been involved in that other than to encourage it. And you know, we -- we've been watching, like the rest of the world, the shipments and the movements of that grain down through the Black Sea and -- and out. I -- I wish I could give you better information on that, other than to say that, you know, again, there's some caution of -- cautious optimism here. You know, the world certainly needs the -- the grain that's coming out, and the fact the Ukrainians have been able to find a way to get those ships out safely, again, kind of speaks to -- to the -- to the abilities of the Ukrainians, this time, you know, at sea.

Q: Thank you. I'm checking -- I -- I just wanted to see -- are you seeing any evidence that the Russians are moving in weapon systems and other equipment from elsewhere in the world such as Syria into Ukraine? Thank you.

SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Jeff, I -- I don't have any information on movement of weapons from Syria. I think you all have reported that they've been engaging with the Iranians on potential use of Iranian UAVs, but I haven't seen anything other than -- than that.

...

Q: Number two, the Ukrainian counteroffensive, what do you rate their ability to launch that counteroffensive today? It seems like the shaping operations obviously have -- have already begun, as you discussed, but the actual counteroffensive, what's their capacity to do it today?

...

SMO: In terms of their ability to execute an offensive, if I've learned anything over the past six months, is that, boy, it sure is hard to put a number on, you know, if you were going rate them on a scale of 0 to 10 how good you thought the Ukrainians were, I think I'd probably put them at about a 12 just based on how impressive they've been to us in so many different ways. And I think, you know, we can all agree from the very beginning they have -- they have found ways to -- to do things that we might not have thought were possible. And so I, again, would hesitate to tell you whether or not I think, you know, the level of possibility in Kherson, I just think it's hard to rate them because they're so darn good. And -- and so I'm going to leave it at that. I'll just say they will be the ones.

# ? Aug 16, 2022 01:18

Humbug Scoolbus: Apr 25, 2008; The scarlet letter was her passport into regions where other women dared not tread. Shame, Despair, Solitude! These had been her teachers, stern and wild ones, and they had made her strong, but taught her much amiss.; Clapping Larry

madeintaipei posted:

I say this with the utmost respect:

Humbug Schoolbus so old, they remember when it was Operation Bomb Useless Jungle.

From what you've shared, you had an interesting career. "No, jumping out of planes is too dangerous. Let me dive instead!"

Jump then dive! Then get sent to loving Somalia and get shot at by loving warlords!

# ? Aug 16, 2022 01:47

golden bubble: Jun 3, 2011; yospos

Speaking of old things becoming new again.

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1559276015758839811

# ? Aug 16, 2022 03:34

Jimmy Smuts: Aug 8, 2000

$16K USD to have 10 kids? No thanks.

# ? Aug 16, 2022 03:56

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

golden bubble posted:

Speaking of old things becoming new again.

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1559276015758839811

Gonna be a little late for Ukraine...

# ? Aug 16, 2022 04:01

E. Revenant: Aug 26, 2002; If the abyss gazes long into you then stare right back;
make it blink.

CommieGIR posted:

Gonna be a little late for Ukraine...

Late for Ukraine war 2 but with all the material losses that need to be replaced means this set of new soldiers might be just in time for Ukraine war 3 in 2040.

# ? Aug 16, 2022 04:52

BIG HEADLINE: Jun 13, 2006; "Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

I don't know, I read that and see "oh, so now serial rapists in Russia are going to feel their actions are justified because they're just doing their part to help the population crisis and make women 'millionaires'" because, well, HellWorld and all. :sigh:

# ? Aug 16, 2022 05:16

cult_hero: Jul 10, 2001

CommieGIR posted:

Gonna be a little late for Ukraine...

I dunno, imagine if the U.S. had done similar for GWOT....

# ? Aug 16, 2022 05:25

Midjack: Dec 24, 2007

BIG HEADLINE posted:

I don't know, I read that and see "oh, so now serial rapists in Russia are going to feel their actions are justified because they're just doing their part to help the population crisis and make women 'millionaires'" because, well, HellWorld and all.

On the other hand, Russia has better protection for abortion rights than half the United States does now.

# ? Aug 16, 2022 05:26

McGavin: Sep 18, 2012

Isn't the abortion rate in Russia absurdly high? Like nearly double the next highest country high.

# ? Aug 16, 2022 05:55

Nuclear Tourist: Apr 7, 2005

E. Revenant posted:

Late for Ukraine war 2 but with all the material losses that need to be replaced means this set of new soldiers might be just in time for Ukraine war 3 in 2040.

The next generation of Ukrainian fertilizer.

# ? Aug 16, 2022 06:51

Duzzy Funlop: Jan 13, 2010; Hi there, would you like to try some spicy products?

golden bubble posted:

Speaking of old things becoming new again.

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1559276015758839811

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross_of_Honour_of_the_German_Mother

:thunk:

# ? Aug 16, 2022 06:55

Comrade Blyatlov: Aug 4, 2007; should have picked four fingers

Did this get posted?

https://i.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/300663229/russian-security-blunder-allows-ukraine-to-destroy-base-of-wagner-mercenaries

quote:

Ukraine used US-supplied Himars to destroy the military headquarters of notorious Russian private military contractor Wagner, after a Russian state television reporter seemed to give away its location by posting photos online.

Russian soldiers are pictured at the Wagner military base with the address clearly visible on a plaque in the top left corner.

# ? Aug 16, 2022 07:58

aphid_licker: Jan 7, 2009

You gotta admire the balls of not changing it to five kids or something. Did I stutter?? TEN kids.

# ? Aug 16, 2022 10:21

Alan Smithee: Jan 4, 2005; A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

do they have to be alive concurrently or do ten just gotta be popped out straight to the front total

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=brsI6z13Su8

# ? Aug 16, 2022 13:24

Alan Smithee: Jan 4, 2005; A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

Jimmy Smuts posted:

$16K USD to have 10 kids? No thanks.

1 million DOLLARS aint even worth it. Gotta have a reality TV grift. And a fundie cult that makes the daughters help raise the kids

# ? Aug 16, 2022 13:26

Cythereal: Nov 8, 2009; I love the potoo,
and the potoo loves you.

Ukraine has a new toy that wasn't announced.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1559259073031409666

# ? Aug 16, 2022 14:29

Just Another Lurker: May 1, 2009

Cythereal posted:

Ukraine has a new toy that wasn't announced.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1559259073031409666

Iv'e always considered them to be an underappreciated item in combat, though maybe actual troops think differently.

# ? Aug 16, 2022 16:00

BIG HEADLINE: Jun 13, 2006; "Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Just Another Lurker posted:

Iv'e always considered them to be an underappreciated item in combat, though maybe actual troops think differently.

Especially the poor fucker(s) who drew the short straw for carrying the base plate.

# ? Aug 16, 2022 16:25

Pine Cone Jones: Dec 6, 2009; You throw me the acorn, I throw you the whip!

BIG HEADLINE posted:

Especially the poor fucker(s) who drew the short straw for carrying the base plate.

This is why we had them mounted in M113s.

# ? Aug 16, 2022 16:53

Rust Martialis: May 8, 2007; by Fluffdaddy
(and can't post for 4 days!)

Just Another Lurker posted:

Iv'e always considered them to be an underappreciated item in combat, though maybe actual troops think differently.

Iirc mortars do wonders against troops in forested positions

# ? Aug 16, 2022 16:53

Mzuri: Jun 5, 2004; Who's the boss?
Dudes is lost.
Don't think coz I'm iced out,
I'm cooled off.

I spent my conscription in a 120mm mortar platoon, although ours were wheeled and towed behind small trucks.

I also spent a couple of full days pushing/pulling that piece of poo poo up and down sandy hills in "familiarization" in summer in full combat gear. The ammo boxes for live grenades were heavy as gently caress, contained only two shells, and were to be hand-delivered at a run from 300m away on live fire drills for safety reasons. By me.

What I'm saying is that the Finns may not be on Ukraine's side :ninja:

# ? Aug 16, 2022 16:54

A.o.D.: Jan 15, 2006

BIG HEADLINE posted:

Especially the poor fucker(s) who drew the short straw for carrying the base plate.

One of the shittiest short straws an infantryman can draw. It's the easiest way to spot the FNG or the unit fuckup.

# ? Aug 16, 2022 16:55

Defenestrategy: Oct 24, 2010

Can someone explain what the use case is for a giant mortar thats probably a pain in the rear end to carry around vs a smaller mortar or a howitzer

# ? Aug 16, 2022 17:11

Valtonen: May 13, 2014; Tanks still suck but you don't gotta hand it to the Axis either.

Bigass mortar is still am order of magnitude less bulky than a howitzer, and a 120mm outranges the smaller mortars by a Good bit.

So it is as close to �in theory you dont Need a truck� combined with �earthshattering kaboom� as you can get without backpack nukes.

# ? Aug 16, 2022 17:20

bird food bathtub: Aug 9, 2003; College Slice

Defenestrategy posted:

Can someone explain what the use case is for a giant mortar thats probably a pain in the rear end to carry around vs a smaller mortar or a howitzer

On paper it's still "man portable" which some marketing department spent good money making flashy power points about.

loving sucks for the actual people carrying it but that's not really much of a concern at the decision making level.

# ? Aug 16, 2022 17:21

Eason the Fifth: Apr 9, 2020

BIG HEADLINE posted:

Especially the poor fucker(s) who drew the short straw for carrying the base plate.

It was the bipods i couldnt stand, but yeah im pretty sure i can trace my back problems to humping that goddamn weapon system

# ? Aug 16, 2022 17:29

Rust Martialis: May 8, 2007; by Fluffdaddy
(and can't post for 4 days!)

Eason the Fifth posted:

It was the bipods i couldnt stand, but yeah im pretty sure i can trace my back problems to humping that goddamn weapon system

A.o.D. posted:

One of the shittiest short straws an infantryman can draw. It's the easiest way to spot the FNG or the unit fuckup.

# ? Aug 16, 2022 17:34

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? Jun 5, 2024 22:36

bad_fmr: Nov 28, 2007

Portable, easy to camouflage, high projectile arc, high rate of fire and importantly, cheap. Finland has like 700 heavy mortars in case of a special operation.

# ? Aug 16, 2022 17:38

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Internet VFW > Ukraine: The Aristoblyats

«‹›987 »