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what are you talking about, russia started the war with less than 200 iskanders and has burned through most of that already. Their supply of precision munitions is clearly limited. they've just got a mountain of dumb rocket artillery
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Aug 17, 2022 17:14
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Herstory Begins Now posted:what are you talking about, russia started the war with less than 200 iskanders and has burned through most of that already. Their supply of precision munitions is clearly limited. they've just got a mountain of dumb rocket artillery  but I doubt they just ran the stockpile dry.
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Aug 17, 2022 17:23
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the launcher is an afterthought in cost compared to the missile itself
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Aug 17, 2022 17:34
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Herstory Begins Now posted:
In the case of the Wagner HQ, not only was a geolocation not turned off on the photos, but one of the photos literally contained a sign with the full address of the building. And, at least in this case, if the person who posted those photos just wanted a quick promotion he was doing it wrong, since he literally was killed by the resulting Ukrainian strike.
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Aug 17, 2022 17:44
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saratoga posted:It's pretty clear they had someone close to Putin on the payroll It's not exactly a buried lede but it's still pretty wild how casually the article tosses off "yeah the CIA has pretty much penetrated every level of the Russian state apparatus."
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Aug 17, 2022 17:46
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Moon Slayer posted:It's not exactly a buried lede but it's still pretty wild how casually the article tosses off "yeah the CIA has pretty much penetrated every level of the Russian state apparatus." Most of them have their wives and kids living in western countries. Peskov has I think five kids and Nalany joked that a NATO brigade could be formed out of them because they're citizens of various EU countries. Hard to conceptualize what people at that level of power on a dictatorship think, but I imagine a lot of them want a cool peaceful rich life for themselves and their families and not recreating USSRv2 and they're only there because they're too deep in to leave now
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Aug 17, 2022 17:51
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Jesus Christ Europe https://twitter.com/RobinBrooksIIF/status/1559897156429189121
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Aug 17, 2022 18:12
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Nenonen posted:
Casus porkbelli.
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Aug 17, 2022 18:17
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Vox Nihili posted:Jesus Christ Europe If you you tell people that something will become harder to get, they'll start hoarding 
Tamba fucked around with this message at 18:42 on Aug 17, 2022 |
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Aug 17, 2022 18:39
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appears to be the pandemic related reduction in demand that caused the dip and then renewed demand and war-related uncertainty that fueled the increase in cost
Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 18:47 on Aug 17, 2022 |
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Aug 17, 2022 18:42
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Vox Nihili posted:Jesus Christ Europe
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Aug 17, 2022 18:42
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Supplying the Ukrainians with a diversity of hardware creates logistics challenges but it’s probably preferable to not being supplied with hardware. While it would be nice to standardize on supplying specific hardware, extra production capacity doesn’t magically exist and that would mean that specific countries would give up a lot more gear. And in the current environment, why would you empty your own stockpiles without replacements lined up?
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Aug 17, 2022 18:52
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Cicero posted:I mean that sucks but in terms of expectations it probably makes more sense to look at volume of imports rather than price. Same volume at a higher price is actually better for Russia. Means enormous margins to fund their war.
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Aug 17, 2022 19:05
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Vox Nihili posted:Same volume at a higher price is actually better for Russia. Means enormous margins to fund their war. Hence the point of the sanctions. They have lots of money, but can't buy anything useful.
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Aug 17, 2022 19:07
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I think the price per barrel of oil is down to $90, if/when it goes below $62 it hurts the russians.
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Aug 17, 2022 19:17
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Moon Slayer posted:It's not exactly a buried lede but it's still pretty wild how casually the article tosses off "yeah the CIA has pretty much penetrated every level of the Russian state apparatus." I think the most surprising thing about this is we still had that much Intel on Russia after the Trump admin.
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Aug 17, 2022 19:23
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Charliegrs posted:I think the most surprising thing about this is we still had that much Intel on Russia after the Trump admin. Why would that be surprising? The people who do the spying and analysis, civil servants, don't leave just because an administration changes.
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Aug 17, 2022 19:25
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the popes toes posted:Why would that be surprising? The people who do the spying and analysis, civil servants, don't leave just because an administration changes. I think he was more referring to how Trump very stupidly exposed a lot of intelligence secrets, publicly and privately.
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Aug 17, 2022 19:31
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OddObserver posted:Something like not liking making more than a 100 shots a day and being picky about ammunition. Anywhere to read more details about this?
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Aug 17, 2022 19:32
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Anywhere to read more details about this? https://mobile.twitter.com/JakOSpades/status/1559103964045623297 Best I can find googling around is https://www.google.com/amp/s/gagadg...e-howitzer-amp/ which is rather light on details. Earlier report on the fire rate limits: https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2022/07/30/german-pzh-2000s-in-ukraine-wear-out-error-message-after-heavy-fire/ The real sources appear to be der Spiegel, and it's, well, in German.
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Aug 17, 2022 19:48
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The Tagesspiegel link makes no mention of the problems with PzH 2000. Both 'newsnpr' and 'bulgarianmilitary' seem dodgy sources from anonymous or possible automated writers. The URL for the Tagesspiegel link clearly is about exactly that, only 1/3 of the delivered howitzers are functioning but the URL goes to the general page for Ukraine war news and searching for the specific term in the site gives no result. https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik...n/28063400.html It seems you can put anything in this URL, like 'all howitzers are working' and you will also end up on the Ukraine news page. https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/krieg-in-der-ukraine-nur-alle-gelieferten-panzerhaubitzen-2000-funktionieren/28063400.html CeeJee fucked around with this message at 20:03 on Aug 17, 2022 |
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Aug 17, 2022 19:55
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Rad Russian posted:I assume the hope is that if Kherson falls then that means the Russian army is in full retreat at that point. At least in that general area. I don't think Ukraine will be crossing the rivers under heavy fire and will instead automatically push the lines to the Crimea border if Kherson is taken. Yeah, although the idea of Kherson's fall resulting in an automatic push toward Crimea relies on this presumption that Putin places all the bets on holding Kherson despite it being difficult to supply (even harder than Stalingrad during WW2). The Dnipro river delta around Kherson is extremely defensible and it's a drat shame that Ukrainians weren't able to blow the bridges at the first sign of Russian invasion because chances are that the front would still be there and Kherson would be free. There's not too many good crossing points and mostly you just end on a small marshy island in the middle of the waterways. If Ukrainians liberated Kherson and the north bank then the next issue on agenda would have to be to use drones and artillery to shut down Russian forward posts and send commando detachments to comb the area so that there's no one left, not even a single Spetsnaz guy with a radio. If you are able to cross the delta then there's a large forested area, some marshes and lots of villages and cottages and the like - very dense terrain. This is in theory very defendable, but if Ukraine was actually able to cross the river and expand their bridgeheads then at that point Russians probably would be losing such close terrain too, it'd be difficult to contain infiltrating attacks. But then comes the open farmland with quite evenly dispersed villages and small towns. If Russians made an orderly withdrawal they could use this region to create a network of fortified strong points around villages from which forward observers and ATGM teams could control the (heavily mined) fields between them and make Ukrainian advance slow. But before any of this can happen, Kherson will have to be taken first and we haven't seen yet how well Ukrainians can carry big offensive operations in an urban area. And we don't know how well Russians can supply their forces there via water and air ways when all bridges are cut. And there lies the conundrum: can Ukraine take the city back without turning it into ruins like Mariupol or taking heavy losses in the process? My guess is: yes, it's their city and they know all the streets, but it's going to take time or some great luck. If Russian supply lines are completely cut then the best chance for Russians would be to withdraw to the district of Korabel which is on its own island and has big apartment buildings and factories, like a mini-Azovstal. The most lovely place to die in.
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Aug 17, 2022 19:56
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Now other people might not think this is interesting, related to the current war, or possibly the internal politics of Tsar Putin’s Russia, but I sure as hell do. What is the current public opinion about the restoration of the Monarchy in Russia? Does anyone know… I couldn’t find much, but I remember reading some articles a couple years before the pandemic that, if my memory serves, but support for some form of restoration at around 30%.
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Aug 17, 2022 20:10
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Kchama posted:I think he was more referring to how Trump very stupidly exposed a lot of intelligence secrets, publicly and privately. Yes that's what I was talking about. No doubt the Trump admin did a serious amount of damage to our Intel capabilities and publicly we have no idea the extent of it. So I found it kind of surprising that we still had good Intel on what Russia was up to prior to the invasion.
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Aug 17, 2022 20:31
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ZombieLenin posted:Now other people might not think this is interesting, related to the current war, or possibly the internal politics of Tsar Putin’s Russia, but I sure as hell do. Wait, Russian nobility still has titles within Russia? They weren't permanently abolished? What does it mean to be a Russian "Duke?"
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Aug 17, 2022 20:42
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Charliegrs posted:Yes that's what I was talking about. No doubt the Trump admin did a serious amount of damage to our Intel capabilities and publicly we have no idea the extent of it. So I found it kind of surprising that we still had good Intel on what Russia was up to prior to the invasion. Nah. I was somewhat adjacent to that field, but technical CI, and there were no suggestions (that I heard) that he damaged capabilities. If you heard something regarding damaging capabilities, I'd be interested.
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Aug 17, 2022 20:49
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DJ_Mindboggler posted:Wait, Russian nobility still has titles within Russia? They weren't permanently abolished? What does it mean to be a Russian "Duke?" Nothing whatsoever other than fringe monarchists masturbating furiously all over you
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Aug 17, 2022 21:11
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DJ_Mindboggler posted:Wait, Russian nobility still has titles within Russia? They weren't permanently abolished? What does it mean to be a Russian "Duke?" I don't know for sure about Russia, but I know that once communism ended in a lot of former Eastern European countries the people living there rapidly needed some sort of common national culture and symbolism to cling to for legitimacy and pride. In Serbia following the end of communism there was a big drive to try and bring back the monarchy and rehabilitate the Cetniks because the country had nothing else to refer to prior to communism and it helped fuel the usual nationalist crap Europe deals with right now. Fun fact, while all royal titles and privileges for the Habsburgs are formally abolished in Austria, they are still legal and official under Croatian laws. Meanwhile today's Germany while very much a product of Allied occupation in the post WW2 era draws its political heritage to the revolutions of 1848. I think it's very much a culmination of everything the revolutionaries of 1848 tried to achieve before Bismarck co-opted German nationalism under conservative/monarchist control. The US sort of owes him a debt indirectly because all the exiles from the failed '48 revolutions aka "forty eighters" fueled a strong liberal cultural tradition in antebellum USA that led to some very dedicated supporters of the Union in the civil war. If you've ever seen Tarantino's "Django Unchained" it's pretty much implied that Christoph Waltz' character was likely a forty-eighter who escaped to the US to make his living as a bounty hunter using his combat experience fighting the Prussian monarchy. A lot of countries that were supposed to become liberal democracies after shedding their ties to the Russian/Austrian/Prussian/Ottoman empires only really got their chance after the USSR fell. Many like Russia never had the chance to build a political tradition outside of Tsarist times and Soviet times because all the alternatives were so heavily demonized by both sides during the upheaval of the Russian civil war. Kraftwerk fucked around with this message at 21:16 on Aug 17, 2022 |
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Aug 17, 2022 21:12
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Hannibal Rex posted:Stuff It makes sense to me. Ukraine doesn't have the materiel to do a massive armored counter-attack, and doing one without that would likely just lead to a lot of casualties. Also, in a way, time is on Ukraine's side. The longer the war goes on, the more of their troops can be trained and the more equipment can be put to use from the west. The economic and human cost will likely be higher, but it is already going to be hell to recover from this as is.
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Aug 17, 2022 21:56
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Yureina posted:It makes sense to me. Ukraine doesn't have the materiel to do a massive armored counter-attack, and doing one without that would likely just lead to a lot of casualties. Also, in a way, time is on Ukraine's side. The longer the war goes on, the more of their troops can be trained and the more equipment can be put to use from the west. The economic and human cost will likely be higher, but it is already going to be hell to recover from this as is. From what I understand, Ukraine does have quite a few tanks. They may not be as advanced as what the Russians have but they do have a lot. But I wonder if Ukraine has decided that using them for massive assaults on defended towns would probably end as well for them as it does for the Russians when they do the same thing. Maybe even worse considering the Russians have helicopter gunships.
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Aug 17, 2022 22:03
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Ukraine just needs to, unfortunately, kill Russian soldiers as quickly and efficiently as possible without taking crippling losses. There's not really a need for a big singular decisive victory, and this whole "but what if Russia has time to hold their fake referendum and declare this land part of Russia" is not a thing. No one who matters will recognize that, and any threats to defend "new Russia" with nuclear weapons would be ignored.
Rigel fucked around with this message at 22:18 on Aug 17, 2022 |
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Aug 17, 2022 22:15
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Charliegrs posted:From what I understand, Ukraine does have quite a few tanks. They may not be as advanced as what the Russians have but they do have a lot. But I wonder if Ukraine has decided that using them for massive assaults on defended towns would probably end as well for them as it does for the Russians when they do the same thing. Maybe even worse considering the Russians have helicopter gunships. If Ukraine can succeed in cutting off the Russian supply lines and bombard them for a while, I'm not sure how well the defenders will hold up under any kind of assault. Russian morale is generally pretty low even when they're gaining ground, I doubt we'll see any heroic defending like with Mariupol. That's probably what it'll come down to, either they can cut off the defenders and roll them over, or any sort of assault will be out of the question. Lots of reasons to be hopeful that they can pull this off though.
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Aug 17, 2022 22:22
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Yureina posted:It makes sense to me. Ukraine doesn't have the materiel to do a massive armored counter-attack, and doing one without that would likely just lead to a lot of casualties. Also, in a way, time is on Ukraine's side. The longer the war goes on, the more of their troops can be trained and the more equipment can be put to use from the west. The economic and human cost will likely be higher, but it is already going to be hell to recover from this as is. It's a bit hazardous to say that time is on Ukraine's or Russia's side because we don't really know how long the war will continue and what will happen during that time. This is like saying in 1914 that the time is on the Entente's side. In a way, yes, but had USA stayed out of the war it would have dragged on longer - and even then it took four years and millions of dead people to see through. I guess my main point is that time is on the side of Death. But it's also that both sides are trying to get more battalions ready to fight (both fresh and ones needing refit), and there is no way of telling who is faring better. Maybe Ukraine has built a massive strategic reserve that they are about to unleash at any moment? Or maybe it hasn't? I don't think they're going to tell us things like that. Neither will Russia. Ukraine has gained plenty of new weapons systems lately. But is it enough to overcome the advantage Russia had before? It's really hard to tell.
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Aug 17, 2022 22:44
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Someone who’s more knowledgeable about Ukrainian climate: how much time left does Ukraine have for an offensive this year? When is fall mud season / winter?
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Aug 17, 2022 23:11
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Cantorsdust posted:Someone who’s more knowledgeable about Ukrainian climate: how much time left does Ukraine have for an offensive this year? When is fall mud season / winter? Traditionally you’re looking at late October through early December, but with the accursed weather of modern day I wouldn’t try to be more specific than that. This is to particularly keep in mind because snow accumulation through winter is a fair share more reliable than rain (which is the cause of autumn mud season).
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Aug 17, 2022 23:17
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This war begin with people claiming it would not start until the ground was frozen (long after it was in fact frozen) now people are claiming it'll end when the ground freezes.
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Aug 17, 2022 23:48
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FishBulbia posted:This war begin with people claiming it would not start until the ground was frozen (long after it was in fact frozen) Are they now? I think it’s sensible enough to expect mobile operations slow down when gravel roads will become unable to support large convoys.
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Aug 17, 2022 23:53
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FishBulbia posted:This war begin with people claiming it would not start until the ground was frozen (long after it was in fact frozen) Who's claiming this I missed that? Is it the same people from before?
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Aug 17, 2022 23:56
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e: gently caress wrong thread (again)
fuctifino fucked around with this message at 00:17 on Aug 18, 2022 |
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