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https://twitter.com/_Jon_Green/status/1560037285885796353?t=lC3O1durlcImauPv0R-vuQ&s=19 I cannot wait to buy shares in this absolute boondoggle. Adam needs to be given a super swirlie and shoved into a locker
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Aug 18, 2022 19:53
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a16z is the new softbank, just vomiting money at all kinds of garbage
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Aug 18, 2022 21:35
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WSB apes were convinced Cohen didn't actually sell his BBBY shares this week, he just filed papers saying he might in the future. Ooops https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/wrtqyw/ryan_cohen_sells_entire_bbby_stake_on_16th_and/ RC and that rich kid literally robbing WSB blind
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Aug 18, 2022 21:55
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Trevorrrrrrrrrrrrr posted:WSB apes were convinced Cohen didn't actually sell his BBBY shares this week, he just filed papers saying he might in the future. Ooops Ouch, down 40% in AH.
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Aug 18, 2022 23:43
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Any FOMO i get by not liquidating and going all on after hearing about these pump and dumps is immediately offset by the massive schaudenfreude I get reading WSB after they get caught holding the bag. I got burned heavily by ARKK and other flash in the pan stuff last year and it's just been  since then
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Aug 18, 2022 23:48
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Trevorrrrrrrrrrrrr posted:WSB apes were convinced Cohen didn't actually sell his BBBY shares this week, he just filed papers saying he might in the future. Ooops I almost sold half my shares yesterday on that news until I saw it was about potentially selling the shares, and that Cohen would have to file that form every 90 days anyway. Then today's news of the actual sale hit and I dashed off an AH sale. Profit if I'd sold at the recent peak: $600+ Profit if I'd sold when I wanted yesterday: ~$400 Profit from selling AH today: $180 Still way ahead of anyone who chased the pump!
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Aug 19, 2022 00:11
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Glad I sold yesterday for a ~$2500 profit, yikes
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Aug 19, 2022 00:39
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Leperflesh posted:
Was about to post this. I really feel that the internet has become much "smaller" and I really miss the age of homespun websites (which is why I love it when I come across someone still running one for a niche interest or something).
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Aug 19, 2022 06:20
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We don't surf the Internet anymore, we just scroll.
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Aug 19, 2022 15:18
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We crawl the web
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Aug 19, 2022 15:21
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Trevorrrrrrrrrrrrr posted:WSB apes were convinced Cohen didn't actually sell his BBBY shares this week, he just filed papers saying he might in the future. Ooops I'm not going to do all the math in the SEC doc, but it looks like he sold about 10M shares for an average price around $25. If he bought in at $5, thats a cool $200M profit with a bunch of reddit bros now holding a rapidly imploding bag (trading under $12 today).
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Aug 19, 2022 17:01
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drk posted:If he bought in at $5, thats a cool $200M profit with a bunch of reddit bros now holding a rapidly imploding bag (trading under $12 today). don't remember where I read it but I believe the avg cost on buying his shares was ~$15. Seen some headlines quoting his return as $50-70M on this one. Gotta respect the heel turn bilking your most loyal cultists.
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Aug 19, 2022 21:25
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Fate Accomplice posted:don't remember where I read it but I believe the avg cost on buying his shares was ~$15. Seen some headlines quoting his return as $50-70M on this one. Gotta respect the heel turn bilking your most loyal cultists. As someone who could live the rest of his life in
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Aug 19, 2022 21:42
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You can barely buy an A list beachfront 1 acre property in Malibu for that price, let alone pay property taxes and maintenance on it for $70mm At $50mm you might as well get a day job
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Aug 19, 2022 21:48
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Hadlock posted:You can barely buy an A list beachfront 1 acre property in Malibu for that price, let alone pay property taxes and maintenance on it for $70mm ill take my chances.
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Aug 19, 2022 23:50
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Enjoy your partial water view condo in manhattan beach
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Aug 20, 2022 00:18
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Anyone dumb enough to live on the coast deserves to get fleeced.
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Aug 20, 2022 00:27
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Hadlock posted:You can barely buy an A list beachfront 1 acre property in Malibu for that price, let alone pay property taxes and maintenance on it for $70mm I'm living in a lake front rental for $775/mo right now  I suppose my idea of decadence probably doesn't match Ryan Cohen's.
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Aug 20, 2022 00:27
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Warmachine posted:I'm living in a lake front rental for $775/mo right now I sometimes pay the $2 for a cup of fresh sliced jalapeños
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Aug 20, 2022 00:54
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SKULL.GIF posted:We don't surf the Internet anymore, we just scroll. Dude... that's a surprisingly accurate and depressing sentence.
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Aug 20, 2022 07:15
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Baddog posted:To try to spur some discussion - my biggest gains have come from just a few picks, great companies with such a good idea that people would be almost dumb not to use them. Amazon when aws came out. Netflix (pre streaming, when it was just obvious that their model was so much better than blockbuster). Costco - better prices for quality items, crazy lenient return policy, people are lining up to get in (still!). I remember my grandmother got into Walmart wayyyy back, cus when they came to her state and she saw how much better they were, it was a no-brainer to her. Dredging a post from weeks ago here, but I wanted to respond to this to say that this is something that has always worked well for me as well. I've done very well in the past buying companies where it has seemed like, they're #1 or #2 in their market, they have a very passionate fanbase, and subjectively from personal experience they seem to clearly be making the best quality products amongst everyone else. When I was getting into running and fitness I went out shopping and all the clothes seemed like dorky trash compared to Nike's stuff. Under Armour was kind of new and an investor darling at the time but seemed kinda like trash to me. I bought Nike. Did very well. Lululemon a similar experience where the product is clearly very good and even more so than Nike they have a passionate customer base. Like clearly um, it's very important to do all the regular research, but I consider this sort of evaluation as a sort of gateway to having a real solid look at the company. Like you're at the shop and thinking, "man this stuff is great, what's the deal with this company?" and then you go look up its stock ticker. People that go out and are always doing new things and have their eyes and ears open are advantaged in picking up on new things happening. I don't have personal experience with Chewy because I'm Canadian and it remains US only, but I've been intrigued by the fact that it seems to have the same sort of vibes of enthusiastic customers that strongly insist it's better than everything else. It was doing very well, but seems to have been punished by the pandemic reopen trade and decline in the market. If it is genuinely as good as all its passionate customers insist then we should expect to see it weather all this and keep going strong. We'll see. There are other companies that seem to be major winners in their market that seem to have a big fanbase that have also been incredibly beaten down, not necessarily because they stumbled in quality and execution, and more to do with the fact that pandemic easy money spiked their market share to unsustainable and stupid values. Stuff like Shopify still feels like a good company to me in that they're enabling so many small businesses to get online, but even if they continue to be successful, man I dunno if they (or CHWY or other pandemic high flyers) will ever gonna get to that insane pandemic price point again. Femtosecond fucked around with this message at 21:16 on Aug 20, 2022 |
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Aug 20, 2022 21:09
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Former chewy customer, back to shopping local. Shipping heavy boxes of pet food didnt work great at the best of times, but after a couple shipments disappeared (a neighbor came by with them over 6 months later!) I dropped them. Prices are lower locally and I dont have to deal with damaged or missing stuff.
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Aug 20, 2022 21:35
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Re-reading what I wrote it comes across as just a sort of vague "invest in good companies stupid" advice and I'm struggling to reframe my thoughts here. I guess what I'm trying to emphasize here is that when people are really passionate about some product, sometimes it can be a "where there's smoke there's fire" sort of signal, that maybe there's something to that company that suggests a further and deeper look. Maybe those people are so passionate for a reason. This hasn't always worked out for me though. I was hearing from all sorts of tech people I knew that were going gaga for Slack and when I started using it at the tiny company I was at I thought it had huge potential. I do think it was a great product, but ultimately I think I only made a pittance on that stock because it really didn't go anywhere. Microsoft ended up diving into the space and ate into their momentum. Even if you have a great product, a thousand ways things can fail.
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Aug 21, 2022 04:25
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Femtosecond posted:Re-reading what I wrote it comes across as just a sort of vague "invest in good companies stupid" advice and I'm struggling to reframe my thoughts here. Yep, it can definitely seem like "duh" advice. But there's an obvious distinction between piling money into shitco stocks that you think might "squeeze", vs a company where you see people literally lining up to buy their crap. I like the Shopify concept. The stock still looks expensive, but it is only ~3x from where it was five years ago. And the product has obviously really matured, and revenues are way up from then. If you are starting up an online business, is shopify just the no-brainer choice? Does seem like it, with a pretty low monthly fee that covers a ton of ground. Seems to even be plenty of fulfillment/warehousing partners who promise to integrate with it seemlessly. Looks like they are losing Amazon fulfillment in a few weeks though, and you'll have to add another 3rd party service to keep that tied together (still only tens of dollars per month). Wonder what the story is there. Because Shopify is building it's own fulfillment network? https://www.shopify.com/fulfillment I see an estimate that 20% of e-commerce sites have been built with shopify, vs 10% with woocommerce. Which I hadn't even heard of, but it looks like it is an open source package? 20% sounds great in a big market - but is this almost all lovely dropshipping sites? What's the real market here? But if they are only 2x as good as the freeware software, I dunno. Can anyone who has used both speak to the differences? Chewy.... man I know people like it, but I just don't see the big idea. They are just shipping other peoples pet food? They aren't making their own super premium stuff, just shipping a 50 pound bag of pedigree to your door? I don't see where there is a competitive advantage, beyond some great marketing. And maybe selling at a loss to grow revenue.
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Aug 21, 2022 06:55
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I think we're gonna end up licencing some of shopify's technology. They have not terrible tech and I guess the documentation isn't terrible That said they just laid off 10% of their workforce, like 2 weeks ago so that's not amazing If you want to hear my hot stock tips on which Fintech people are just lining up around the block to buy their products, you can subscribe to my newsletter
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Aug 21, 2022 07:04
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Hadlock posted:I think we're gonna end up licencing some of shopify's technology. They have not terrible tech and I guess the documentation isn't terrible Software companies always seem to bloat up outrageously. They were at 10k employees? I guess they have big sales/support requirements because they are pushing to very small businesses. But still. Empire building instincts of middle managers. Good to hear other companies are actually licensing some of their software. They aren't just enabling the dropshipping "industry" then. Can you say which piece?
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Aug 21, 2022 07:23
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Not really. We're not a fortune 500 though I doubt a ton of people are licencing their tech; our shopping cart just so happens to be so incredibly hosed that it's cheaper to buy their tech than try and engineer a greenfield design and implement it right now, or at least that was the board's solution
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Aug 21, 2022 07:58
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Baddog posted:Chewy.... man I know people like it, but I just don't see the big idea. They are just shipping other peoples pet food? They aren't making their own super premium stuff, just shipping a 50 pound bag of pedigree to your door? I don't see where there is a competitive advantage, beyond some great marketing. And maybe selling at a loss to grow revenue. Chewy is an absolute mystery to me, especially since I'm not in a country that can use it so I can't have first hand experience, for the exact reasons you've said. Like yeah, really? Dog food delivery? There's gotta be something magic there in looping people into buying more once they snag them into convenient pet food delivery. I dunno. Don't get me wrong I'm not really advocating Chewy as good company to invest in, I was more pointing them out as an example of a company that seems to have a curiously beyond normal passionate customer base. That suggests that they could have something good going on. With a passionate customer base, I mean obviously that's great in creating repeat customers, but that's also great for creating valuable, free, word of mouth advertising. Those companies that seem to be able to turn their customers into advocates for the company seem like a big plus. (Apple a classic example of this)
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Aug 21, 2022 08:15
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My most first hand experience with Shopify is pals of mine with a retail store set up an online store with Shopify right before the pandemic. They said it saved them as foot traffic plummeted. So yea don't forget that aspect of the business. There's a huge amount of small brick n' mortar shops that are leveraging Shopify tech to expand their businesses online.
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Aug 21, 2022 08:18
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https://twitter.com/JerryCap/status/1483488810243657735?s=20&t=C9TSKCkwupyGdgN-K1tLCQ split-adjusted, $shop is now down to ~340 (-ish?) on that chart. tobi buying into .eth was a great tell for the $shop bubble
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Aug 21, 2022 14:02
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Femtosecond posted:Chewy is an absolute mystery to me, especially since I'm not in a country that can use it so I can't have first hand experience, for the exact reasons you've said. Like yeah, really? Dog food delivery? There's gotta be something magic there in looping people into buying more once they snag them into convenient pet food delivery. I dunno. Probably repeating myself, but I remember back in college (iPod era) when classmates would talk about needing a new laptop and they'd go with a $1,400 MacBook by default. I would gently advocate for a $300-500 Windows laptop on the basis of saving money, but they wouldn't listen. Apple products "just work," therefore four figures for an email/homework/browsing laptop is the only way. Should've dumped my early paychecks into Apple under such conditions. Regarding Chewy, I hear raves about them similar to those for Zappos. "I told the customer service rep my sob story and they gave me overnight delivery, a thoughtful card, and a bouquet of flowers" type deals. Any sign that a retailer will react to your specific situation instead of immediately loving you over or shutting you down is the start of a cult in America. I really wondered if Ryan Cohen would bring that approach to GameStop somehow instead of price-manipulation chicanery. There are plenty of families who would pledge allegiance to a retailer that notices their kid's favorite game/franchise and tosses in a free pair of licensed socks / Tshirt / poster / whatever. Having said that, their "get $10 for $5 every month" deal is a no-brainer to me.
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Aug 21, 2022 14:08
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pmchem posted:not really a typical question for this thread, but has anyone here ever allocated to managed futures / cross-asset trend-following funds? what are your thoughts? following up on this old post...: Bloomberg podcast and article this past week about DBMF with Andrew Beer, co-manager of the ETF. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2022-08-18/how-to-beat-the-s-p-500-by-30-percentage-points-podcast https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-20/how-to-beat-hedge-funds-at-their-game-according-to-baupost-alum
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Aug 21, 2022 14:16
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Femtosecond posted:Chewy is an absolute mystery to me, especially since I'm not in a country that can use it so I can't have first hand experience, for the exact reasons you've said. Like yeah, really? Dog food delivery? In the US dog food comes in 20/40/60 lb bags (27kg) When we lived in an urban apartment, a lot of chewy customers were 100lb (45kg) women who didn't own cars, or maybe they owned cars but just didn't use them except for out of town trips I think if you own a car with a hatchback (SUV, etc) and live in the suburbs where you don't need to fight with three other customers for an urban parking space and nearly get in a wreck trying to get across town just to get dog food, it makes a lot of sense If you're going to Walmart twice a week to get family groceries in your giant planet-crusher SUV it's not a lot more work to have the Petco cashier (or your teenage kid) haul a 60 lb bag of dog food into your car 100lb women who live in urban apartments, in my limited experience, very often grow up to drive planet-crusher SUVs and live in the suburbs, so even if you build them up as a long term customer, they end up aging out of your product
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Aug 21, 2022 15:46
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more weekend reading... the hedge funds of paul tudor jones and seth klarman bought made big new buys of WBD in Q2. totally underwater if they're still in it https://whalewisdom.com/filer/tudor-investment-corp-et-al#tabholdings_tab_link https://whalewisdom.com/filer/baupost-group-llc-ma#tabholdings_tab_link https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=WBD&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
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Aug 21, 2022 15:47
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Femtosecond posted:Chewy is an absolute mystery to me, especially since I'm not in a country that can use it so I can't have first hand experience, for the exact reasons you've said. Like yeah, really? Dog food delivery? There's gotta be something magic there in looping people into buying more once they snag them into convenient pet food delivery. I dunno. I just order cat food from Amazon because I hate my cat. I assume this is typical
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Aug 21, 2022 16:09
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My cat is a million years old and goes through like 12lb of food (+ like 20lbs of cat treats my wife feeds him) every six months 100 lb dogs eat as much as a teenager, especially if they're at all active
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Aug 21, 2022 16:22
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I wonder how much the pandemic impacted Chewy. On one hand it drove people to online shopping, but on the other all the retailers around me got good at curbside services and it’s hella easy to buy big stuff when you aren’t the one putting it in the cart and loading it into the car.
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Aug 21, 2022 16:50
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Baddog posted:Yep, it can definitely seem like "duh" advice. But there's an obvious distinction between piling money into shitco stocks that you think might "squeeze", vs a company where you see people literally lining up to buy their crap. Chewy's moat is the vast swathes of rural america where a local option simply doesn't exist.
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Aug 21, 2022 17:06
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shame on an IGA posted:Chewy's moat is the vast swathes of rural america where a local option simply doesn't exist. rural america, the part of the country famously unable to keep dogs or cats as pets before the advent of the internet and food delivery
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Aug 21, 2022 17:24
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gobbless chewy.com allowing rural americans the FREEDOM of pet ownership 
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Aug 21, 2022 17:28
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