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Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




some plague rats posted:

School closures were more harmful than getting covid? What? Didn't the school closures happen when vaccine uptake was in it's infancy and the vast majority of people were unvaccinated...?

Where I am schools closed and were full remote from the first March though the next January and then were only hybrid the remainder of that year. It was almost a year and a half. Other places lol, they barely closed.

But let me tell you remote hosed my kid’s poo poo right up, probably more than most as we are special needs with a 504 (that the district refused to pursue getting while the schools were closed!) We are just now getting behavior back to where it was prepandemic.

K-5 socialization is a need not a want for kids. Communities are centered around the schools and if the schools are closed community evaporates. Kids that aren’t going their needs (and socialization and community are a need at that age) met have problems. Not all of them but a good half of them.

It was demonstrated by district data where I am ( prior to omicron ) that masking was an effective at prevention of transmission in school. We chose as a society that opening bars and restaurants was more important than critical socialization years in elementary students.

Parents are and have been pissed. Because nobody was listening to them. That anger has been being targeted by the GOP to push racism.

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slurm
Jul 28, 2022

by Hand Knit
Communities are only centered around school because of really really aberrant American land use patterns, communities aren't solely a function of school (with childless adults left to radicalize online) anywhere but the car-dependent wastes

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

slurm posted:

Communities are only centered around school because of really really aberrant American land use patterns, communities aren't solely a function of school (with childless adults left to radicalize online) anywhere but the car-dependent wastes

I don't think he meant that communities for children are literally/physically centered around schools. Every country in the world regardless of income or density probably has "family" and "schools" as two of the top 3 places where kids are socialized. And family can only socialize a child so much, because there aren't any peers there. School is very much the largest and most consistent place for socialization of kids in modern society.

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

It’s purely a US phenomenon. Everyone else has discotheques.

-Blackadder-
Jan 2, 2007

Game....Blouses.

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

They were part of a student loan reform program that was eventually partially added to the original BBB.

They basically converted all student loans, past and future, into a new type of student loan whose payment was capped at 5% of your disposable income above $25k. So, someone making around $50k would have about a $35-$40 a month payment, and it would all be forgiven after 20 years.

The college thing was meant to direct people to community college or trade schools for free or give 2 years of a public college for free. Part of the goal was to reduce demand for 4-year universities for people who wanted certain degrees. It may have driven up costs for community colleges, but those costs would be absorbed by the government instead of the student. I don't know if anyone ever did any serious attempt at modeling/predicting the plan's overall impact on costs and not just costs to students.

Ok, that's fair, that seems pretty good actually. Even without modeling costs, it sounds like it would have mitigated many of the issues with the current proposal and would have been by far, a better plan that we could build on.

But if the current plan is all Biden can do executively, why did the important additional parts (loan conversion + 2 yrs free CC) that actually made the whole thing function beyond being just a band-aid fix, get left out of what eventually passed in the IRA? And is any chance of legislation with those critical additional elements attached getting passed before the end of the session?

Killer robot
Sep 6, 2010

I was having the most wonderful dream. I think you were in it!
Pillbug

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

I don't think he meant that communities for children are literally/physically centered around schools. Every country in the world regardless of income or density probably has "family" and "schools" as two of the top 3 places where kids are socialized. And family can only socialize a child so much, because there aren't any peers there. School is very much the largest and most consistent place for socialization of kids in modern society.

Worth adding to this, even if you still feel that dense urban societies have a lot of alternate non-school venues for socialization of children, have I got big news for you about how covid affected them.

I was generally in favor of more school lockdowns over less, but unlike closing Olive Garden that was a choice with actual cost and not all the parents who disagreed were motivated by slavish capitalism.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

-Blackadder- posted:

Ok, that's fair, that seems pretty good actually. Even without modeling costs, it sounds like it would have mitigated the majority of the issues with the current proposal and would have been the far preferred plan that we could build on.

But if the current plan is all Biden can do executively, why did the important additional parts (loan conversion + 2 yrs free CC) that actually made the whole thing function beyond being just a band-aid fix, get left out of what eventually passed in the IRA? And is any chance of legislation with those critical additional elements attached getting passed before the end of the session?

Because Joe Manchin wouldn’t vote for it. The way that legislation happens is Dems hold the house and pick up a senate seat or two.

(I wouldn’t bet a lot of money on that happening, to be clear, but it’s a lot more likely than people thought a month ago).

evilweasel fucked around with this message at 03:08 on Aug 23, 2022

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

-Blackadder- posted:

Ok, that's fair, that seems pretty good actually. Even without modeling costs, it sounds like it would have mitigated many of the issues with the current proposal and would have been by far, a better plan that we could build on.

But if the current plan is all Biden can do executively, why did the important additional parts (loan conversion + 2 yrs free CC) that actually made the whole thing function beyond being just a band-aid fix, get left out of what eventually passed in the IRA? And is any chance of legislation with those critical additional elements attached getting passed before the end of the session?

Because federal student loans currently fund the federal government's portion of medicaid expansion under Obamacare. They would have needed to revamp the funding mechanic for that long-term and they just wanted to pass a bill that everybody could agree on instead of hashing out the costs and funding sources of all of that when it may not have been able to get 50 votes.

And no, there isn't any reasonable chance of that stuff getting passed before the end of the session. They theoretically have another reconciliation bill they can pass between October and January 2023, but there is basically a 0% chance they are doing that with it. I doubt there will be any major new programs with several hundred billion in new spending or taxes from it, if they even use it for something other than adjusting budgets for FY2024.

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 03:42 on Aug 23, 2022

pencilhands
Aug 20, 2022

Man I am so so excited for this. I'm praying on my hands and knees that this happens. 10k is so much money, this would be more than any politician has ever helped me in my lifetime or even considered helping me. There have to be other people like me out there.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




slurm posted:

Communities are only centered around school because of really really aberrant American land use patterns, communities aren't solely a function of school (with childless adults left to radicalize online) anywhere but the car-dependent wastes

Community in general evaporated too. I lived on a nice park with the community center. Used to sit in the back and my son would talk to everybody he knew as they walked by. All that went away. All the things one does with kids story time, enrichments be it sports or interests (art,science, etc). All of that went away. It’s still only partially back. There hasn’t been a story time at a local library since the pandemic started.

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

Bar Ran Dun posted:

A large percentage of parents having had / done both will tell you the school closures were definitely worse and directly more harmful to their kids.

Oh cool, show me the numbers.

Parakeet vs. Phone
Nov 6, 2009
This whole argument is also ignoring that school closures were heavily about not having Covid just go nuts spreading through schools, because those kids with "mild" cases would go home and give very not mild cases to their family. Slow the spread and all that.

It did also reveal how few community options there are for much of the country and how libraries, churches and schools are carrying the weight of what's left of our social support structure. But nobody apparently wanted to do anything to help with that so...:shrug:

Ghost Leviathan
Mar 2, 2017

Exploration is ill-advised.
Because under neoliberalism, problems do not exist. Now smile and go to work, that's what makes Number go up.

idiotsavant
Jun 4, 2000

Parakeet vs. Phone posted:

This whole argument is also ignoring that school closures were heavily about not having Covid just go nuts spreading through schools, because those kids with "mild" cases would go home and give very not mild cases to their family. Slow the spread and all that.

It did also reveal how few community options there are for much of the country and how libraries, churches and schools are carrying the weight of what's left of our social support structure. But nobody apparently wanted to do anything to help with that so...:shrug:

I don't think parents were mad that schools were closing to protect their kids from COVID, I think many are mad because they got practically no support during any of it and were stuck with an insane poo poo soup of trying to help their kids learn from home while still being expected to work their own jobs, trying to help their kids socialize safely during a time when it's absolutely critical for normal human development, and what seemed to be a complete failure of many schools to handle any of the pandemic with foresight or clarity.

Parents had zero good choices and no stability whatsoever since the vaccine was not available for children and since schools were absolutely garbage about getting clear pandemic procedures set up. Send your kid to school and hope they don't get COVID or keep your kid home & home they don't end up with a bunch of developmental deficiencies, hmm. If I had kids I'd be loving pissed, too.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Jaxyon posted:

Oh cool, show me the numbers.

Do you have kids? Do you talk to other parents constantly? Cause that’s what your life is when you have kids. I’m telling you that’s what I see when I interact with other parents.

No you are a rational goon who wants data. I don’t think we’ll have good studies on the repercussions what happened for years.

Fo you have any idea what the last two years were like for families with special needs kids? Is me telling you that it was hell, invalid because there isn’t good data.

Do you see how phenomenally lovely that is?

Parakeet vs. Phone posted:

This whole argument is also ignoring that school closures were heavily about not having Covid just go nuts spreading through schools, because those kids with "mild" cases would go home and give very not mild cases to their family. Slow the spread and all that.

I tracked cases in my district once remote started (and posted these in CSPAM covid thread regularly) and after they went back full time. District was fully masked. In school spread was considerably lower (nearly nonexistent) than community spread. Positives at the school were mostly picked up in the home. Masking worked quite well.

Back to school unmasked was stupid.
But back to school masked worked quite well.

Until Omicorn

But nearly everyone got covid during the first omicron wave based on the UW model (predicted actual infections model not actually tested positive model).

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

Bar Ran Dun posted:

Do you have kids? Do you talk to other parents constantly? Cause that’s what your life is when you have kids. I’m telling you that’s what I see when I interact with other parents.

No you are a rational goon who wants data. I don’t think we’ll have good studies on the repercussions what happened for years.

Fo you have any idea what the last two years were like for families with special needs kids? Is me telling you that it was hell, invalid because there isn’t good data.

Do you see how phenomenally lovely that is?

I think it certainly sucked. So does having a dead kid. So does having a dead family member because your kid infected them. So does having an immunocompromised child or other family member.

There's no good outcome of a pandemic that was this infectious. All of the options suck in some way.

But if you're going to make a numbers based claim, either admit you don't have data, or show the data.

Parakeet vs. Phone
Nov 6, 2009
Yeah, the thing that stuck with me from early in the pandemic was some teacher noting that they could figure out how to catch kids up on a year of classes and socialization. It was hard but doable (if they had government support, lol). Helping a kid deal with the lifetime trauma and practical effects of not having one or both parents anymore was a lot worse.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Jaxyon posted:

But if you're going to make a numbers based claim, either admit you don't have data, or show the data.

I tracked in school spread with full masking in my district and posted it regularly in the (edit CSPAM) covid thread. It was extremely low, much lower than community spread.

Again until omicron.

You can search my post history for it.

Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 07:24 on Aug 23, 2022

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

Bar Ran Dun posted:

I tracked in school spread with full masking in my district and posted it regularly in the (edit CSPAM) covid thread. It was extremely low, much lower than community spread.

Again until omicron.

You can search my post history for it.

I was asking data for the thing I quoted.

FizFashizzle
Mar 30, 2005







pencilhands posted:

Man I am so so excited for this. I'm praying on my hands and knees that this happens. 10k is so much money, this would be more than any politician has ever helped me in my lifetime or even considered helping me. There have to be other people like me out there.

Otoh this is actually worse for someone in my situation, as that amount is just a drop in the bucket and I might be better off with the pause just getting kicked down the road indefinitely. Not implying my debt load makes me better or whatever.

However I understand this is big as hell for a lot of people and we’re all getting hosed together. I’m never going to begrudge anyone no longer getting hosed by the system. So congratulations man. next rounds on you.

This is going to radicalize a ton of ortho and uruology residents though who never read anything more philosophically challenging than Rand.

FizFashizzle fucked around with this message at 11:30 on Aug 23, 2022

Sub Par
Jul 18, 2001


Dinosaur Gum
I have not yet read the book but I heard an interview with Anya Kamenetz on NPR the other day about her new book The Stolen Year that some people may find interesting given the COVID/schools/parents conversation happening ITT.

Kalit
Nov 6, 2006

The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

Jaxyon posted:

I was asking data for the thing I quoted.

Here’s various numbers, including one where most parents (55%) think their kids fell behind due to online learning: https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/usa-today-back-to-school-2021

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Parakeet vs. Phone posted:

Yeah, the thing that stuck with me from early in the pandemic was some teacher noting that they could figure out how to catch kids up on a year of classes and socialization. It was hard but doable (if they had government support, lol). Helping a kid deal with the lifetime trauma and practical effects of not having one or both parents anymore was a lot worse.

also, if your kid isn't neurotypical than its even harder.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
One of the four cops the feds arrested over Breonna Taylor has already agreed to plea guilty.

The other three haven't pled yet, but if she admits guilt to the falsifying a warrant, civil rights violations, and obstruction charges, then those other 3 are basically done for on those charges.

One of them is charged with the excessive force and shooting, but that charge wouldn't necessarily be impacted by one of them admitting to falsifying the warrant and obstruction.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1562049600843915265

Yawgmoft
Nov 15, 2004

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

The primary between Nadler and Maloney is tomorrow. After their districts were merged and moved slightly towards Manhattan after redistricting, they were forced to face off.

One thing that is throwing the race into uncertainty: A large portion of the voters in the district are in the Hamptons for the summer, didn't request a mail-in ballot, and don't want to come back just to vote in-person. They could make the difference, especially when primaries are already so low turnout.

I am 99% sure that someone from the NYT is doing this as a troll. The quotes they get are too perfect and the concept of the article itself is basically a satire of Manhattan. The surprise cameo from Sarah Jessica Parker at the end seals it for me.

https://twitter.com/npfandos/status/1561066218722934788

I just moved out of this area after my Covid deal ended and I assure you these people are not self aware enough for it to be satire.

Judgy Fucker
Mar 24, 2006

This slapfight over trying to quantify the suffering over Covid lockdowns and schooling seems kinda pointless. Lockdowns were needed to stop the spread before vaccines were available, that much is true. But the U.S. doesn't have the social programs or policies needed to make educating kids well at home while also working--most especially if kids need support services--feasible. Additionally (and I know this from my own experiences teaching) for all too many kids school is an escape from abusive and dangerous situations at home.

Not closing schools down was going to be a death sentence for a lot of people. So was closing schools. People were going to suffer and die regardless because this country sucks and doesn't try to take care of its own.

slurm
Jul 28, 2022

by Hand Knit
The teachers I know seem a lot less concerned about "covid learning loss" than the most (or most loudly) concerned group, which is probably movement conservatives.

Judgy Fucker
Mar 24, 2006

slurm posted:

The teachers I know seem a lot less concerned about "covid learning loss" than the most (or most loudly) concerned group, which is probably movement conservatives.

I work with teachers, and the ones I know are most definitely concerned about it--and not just academic learning loss, but social-emotional as well. Schools have been open for over a year and it's still being felt.

Anecdote vs. anecdote I know, which is kinda my point. Trying to quantify the suffering and demanding data on it just seems fruitless.

Lib and let die
Aug 26, 2004

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

One of the four cops the feds arrested over Breonna Taylor has already agreed to plea guilty.

The other three haven't pled yet, but if she admits guilt to the falsifying a warrant, civil rights violations, and obstruction charges, then those other 3 are basically done for on those charges.

One of them is charged with the excessive force and shooting, but that charge wouldn't necessarily be impacted by one of them admitting to falsifying the warrant and obstruction.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1562049600843915265

Hang 'em.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

projecthalaxy
Dec 27, 2008

Yes hello it is I Kurt's Secret Son



On what charge? They haven't committed a capital crime like treason or being near a playground at the age of 12 or sleeping in your own house

cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Judgy Fucker posted:

This slapfight over trying to quantify the suffering over Covid lockdowns and schooling seems kinda pointless. Lockdowns were needed to stop the spread before vaccines were available, that much is true. But the U.S. doesn't have the social programs or policies needed to make educating kids well at home while also working--most especially if kids need support services--feasible. Additionally (and I know this from my own experiences teaching) for all too many kids school is an escape from abusive and dangerous situations at home.

Not closing schools down was going to be a death sentence for a lot of people. So was closing schools. People were going to suffer and die regardless because this country sucks and doesn't try to take care of its own.
We would have had a lot more latitude to keep schools open w.r.t. spread if we considered them a higher priority than Applebee's, but this is America.

Xombie
May 22, 2004

Soul Thrashing
Black Sorcery

mastershakeman posted:

I think it's horrendous policy if not park of a package completely revamping public undergrad/grad school. A one time forgiveness is a cynical election ploy and nothing more. It doesn't help anyone on ibr, anyone on paye,

As someone on IBR, It does help me. Please don't speak on my behalf.


quote:

barely helps those with private loans (especially those who paid off their higher interest public debt , still have private, and now get nothing),

The government can't "forgive" debt it doesn't own.

quote:

and it will only drive up costs further in the future.

This is some hand-wavey argumentation, here. This is the type of thing you need to back up with specifics.

quote:

And most importantly, it doesn't help anyone who didn't go to college and doesn't help anyone who went to a cheaper but worse school to avoid debt.

Why would debt forgiveness need to help people who don't have debt? Do you understand that many of us who are paying down student loans have already paid back as much if not more than the actual cost of our education?

quote:

IBR and PAYE were already mistakes that drove costs even higher, but at least they helped people at the end of the 25/20 year forgiveness.

I can assure you that IBR is helping me not be literally constantly broke and homeless.

quote:

This doesn't do anything but try to win a few Congressional house seats , but even doing blanket forgiveness is still bad when it doesn't help anyone going forward.

I am 100% in favor of politicians enacting policies that help me in order to garner my vote. My vote is absolutely purchasable, for the cost of my college debt.

quote:

I guess if you just want Dems to win it's a good move since it will potentially drive turnout with a 'vote for us to get money" every few years.

You say this, yet I don't see a single thing bad about it.

Fifteen of Many
Feb 23, 2006
Team Trump released a letter that the National Archives sent them informing them they’d be giving materials to the FBI, presumably thinking that because Biden is mentioned and the letter says their lawyers had been talking for a while that it would be exculpatory or make the raid seem nefarious, but uh….

https://twitter.com/maggienyt/status/1562069180257648641?s=21&t=KmEN7pWaN_e290em11hszA

Rigel
Nov 11, 2016

Judgy Fucker posted:

This slapfight over trying to quantify the suffering over Covid lockdowns and schooling seems kinda pointless. Lockdowns were needed to stop the spread before vaccines were available, that much is true. But the U.S. doesn't have the social programs or policies needed to make educating kids well at home while also working--most especially if kids need support services--feasible. Additionally (and I know this from my own experiences teaching) for all too many kids school is an escape from abusive and dangerous situations at home.

Not closing schools down was going to be a death sentence for a lot of people. So was closing schools. People were going to suffer and die regardless because this country sucks and doesn't try to take care of its own.

Early on when everything was shut down, yeah there was no choice. I think the debate was during that weird time when some areas, for reasons that are hard to understand, decided it was OK to open up bars and restaurants, but kept schools shut down. Which seems odd in that if you were going to choose which to open first (rather than just say its either all OK or its all shut down), you'd probably recognize the harm being done to kids first vs going out to eat. But I guess the economy takes priority over the need for young children to socialize.

Even with that though, you are probably right that the discussion doesn't have much value since there won't be data for a while, so we have dueling anecdotes with people going "eh, the kids are fine" vs "no, they aren't fine, this harmed them", and unknowable arguments on which harm was worse, etc.

Rigel fucked around with this message at 15:01 on Aug 23, 2022

Lib and let die
Aug 26, 2004

projecthalaxy posted:

On what charge? They haven't committed a capital crime like treason or being near a playground at the age of 12 or sleeping in your own house

Guilty of being a police officer.

Papercut
Aug 24, 2005

Rigel posted:

Early on when everything was shut down, yeah there was no choice. I think the debate was during that weird time when some areas, for reasons that are hard to understand, decided it was OK to open up bars and restaurants, but kept schools shut down. Which seems odd in that if you were going to choose which to open first (rather than just say its either all OK or its all shut down), you'd probably recognize the harm being done to kids first vs going out to eat. But I guess the economy takes priority over the need for young children to socialize.

Even with that though, you are probably right that the discussion doesn't have much value since there won't be data for a while, so we have dueling anecdotes with people going "eh, the kids are fine" vs "no, they aren't fine, this harmed them", and unknowable arguments on which harm was worse, etc.

Schools were slower to reopen because the vaccine wasn't available for kids

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
Joe Manchin's weird obsession with American manufacturing requirements for the EV credit might have actually inadvertently worked.

Hyundai is building a U.S. manufacturing plant by the end of this year instead of late next year.

Volkswagen, Mercedes, and a relatively new electric truck company called Rivian also announced they are building American assembly and manufacturing plants for their electric vehicles.

https://twitter.com/CoreyBCantor/status/1562070865042444288

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Jaxyon posted:

I was asking data for the thing I quoted.

The isn’t going to be good data on the thing you quoted likely for years.

ozmunkeh
Feb 28, 2008

hey guys what is happening in this thread
Excellent news. Hyundai can save the environment and fix child socialization issues on their production line at the same time.

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evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Joe Manchin's weird obsession with American manufacturing requirements for the EV credit might have actually inadvertently worked.

Hyundai is building a U.S. manufacturing plant by the end of this year instead of late next year.

Volkswagen, Mercedes, and a relatively new electric truck company called Rivian also announced they are building American assembly and manufacturing plants for their electric vehicles.

i mean, that was the whole point - it wasn't inadvertent! people were somewhat skeptical it would work, but that's different (and I think a lot of that skepticism was car companies that didn't want to need to move stuff making a last-minute push to strip that stuff out)

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