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Blut posted:The Euro losing ~20% (and getting worse every day) of its value against the dollar, and all of the many many global currencies pegged to the dollar, is of absolutely massive benefit to the German export orientated economy though. Once again the Euro is serving to work primarily in their interests above everyone else on the continent. you'd think so, but the german trade deficit is apparently pretty bad at the moment, and that weakening euro is also loving with their primary market, i.e. the rest of the eurozone. i don't know if the germans can replace that loss of demand with other markets in the medium term, though, which would be a way out of that bind. recall back during the euro crisis the germans went hard on keeping the euro strong; i assume they did that for a reason. still, i don't expect the germans to just sit around and do nothing. they may find some clever workaround here - but there are interesting times ahead for the common market.
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Aug 25, 2022 00:23
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Yes, im sure having a weak euro while importing massive tons of lng from the us and trying to spin up a hydrogen ecosysten is just ideal.
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Aug 25, 2022 00:40
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And the hydrogen ecosystem will likely turn out to be some pie in the sky BS anyway.
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Aug 25, 2022 05:53
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V. Illych L. posted:the issue is that expensive power really fucks the germans, who've carefully maintained a very strong export-oriented industrial economy for decades now, to the point where maintaining that economy has been at the centre of a lot of EU policy (including the hardline austerity back in the day). the longer this lasts, the more businesses are going to permanently close, and once closed they're not generally coming back. france is somewhat less exposed to this, but iirc the netherlands are sort of in the same boat as the germans. with the euro also looking very unstable, there is going to be a lot of pressure on the german export economy and with it the economic policy base of the EU Posted this earlier, but based on the analysis in this video, the german export model isn't sustainable. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWjKvehIumg
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Aug 25, 2022 05:56
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His Divine Shadow posted:Posted this earlier, but based on the analysis in this video, the german export model isn't sustainable. blyth's been saying this for years. he may well be right, but this sounds a lot like his analysis from the sovereign debt crisis. a model being effectively a series of short-term solutions only means that it's risky, not that it can't keep going.
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Aug 25, 2022 10:43
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His Divine Shadow posted:And the hydrogen ecosystem will likely turn out to be some pie in the sky BS anyway. Hydrogen seems to work great where it's been tested, the problem is cleanly generating the hydrogen. It seems that so-called 'green hydrogen' costs $3-7 per kilogram compared to less than $0.90 for non-clean hydrogen generation.
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Aug 25, 2022 10:59
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Things always seem to work out when tested on a small scale so that's not really convincing me personally. I've been looking for numbers into energy grid storage and found some. It also states reliable estimates for hydrogen are impossible to make at this time. At least on the scale the article concerns itself with. https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/features/energy-storage-analysing-feasibility-grid-scale-options/
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Aug 25, 2022 11:12
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Tesseraction posted:Hydrogen seems to work great where it's been tested, the problem is cleanly generating the hydrogen. It seems that so-called 'green hydrogen' costs $3-7 per kilogram compared to less than $0.90 for non-clean hydrogen generation.
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Aug 25, 2022 11:38
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One may favor nuclear or renewables for hydrogen production but if we want to get off fossil fuels we'll have to do one of them for at the very least fertilizer and other chemical production. If green and pink hydrogen is an impossible pipedream then we're just poo poo out of luck.
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Aug 25, 2022 11:57
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There's been some leaps made in direct ammonia electrolysis from surplus renewables, apparently it's recently beat Haber-Bosch for efficiency, doesn't need pre-existing hydrogen, and can run for several days. A way to go before it can compete at scale, but a big part of the idea is that smaller scale plants can be placed where fertilizer is needed, reducing transport costs/emissions too. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSYCac7KD8o
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Aug 25, 2022 12:04
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Just turn our toilets into piss batteries (pissteries don't steal) bing bong so simple.
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Aug 25, 2022 12:12
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By a weird technicality nearly half the nitrogen in our waste was put there by Haber-Bosch, so using urea to get more efficient hydrogen electrolysis is burning natural gas by a very long route until we replace that with better ammonia synthesis. But it's not like we were doing anything more interesting with all that piss anyway.
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Aug 25, 2022 12:21
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Magically, the EU isn't going to become energy independent tomorrow and oil/gas imports will likely ruin whatever gains the export economies manage to scrap. Meanwhile, the EUR continues to devalue and the USD seems to stay strong. So, serious question here: what are you doing (or planning to do) with your EUR portfolio? With the EUR devaluing, the smart move was to pull out before it did, obviously. With that window gone for most people, what's one supposed to do today? If you had a savings account, that money devalued by like 10% in mere months and chances are it will get worse before it will get better (if ever). I'm wondering how anyone with a minimum grasp of market realities (i.e. anyone smarter than me) is dealing with this. I have no idea where to even start.
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Aug 25, 2022 12:51
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Buy land, forest. But for real I guess keep a cool head, hope the economy recovers in enough time. It's always recovered so far. We have looming climate change that might throw that off however. But I don't really see there's much to do otherwise.
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Aug 25, 2022 12:57
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Saoshyant posted:So, serious question here: what are you doing (or planning to do) with your EUR portfolio? Nothing, your savings/stocks should be diversified anyway
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Aug 25, 2022 13:11
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yeah if you have a significant amount of money sitting in a savings account you weren't doing it right in the first place. stocks mostly protect from big domestic inflation, and foreign stocks help guard against your own currency making GBS threads the bed against others
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Aug 25, 2022 14:05
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Buy capital goods. Machines, tools, cars, houses. Whatever you are going to need or use. (Alternatively, what you think will sell later, but I don't reccomend) There is nothing in finance that helps the average person. That's the name of the game.
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Aug 25, 2022 14:12
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Don't forget it wasn't just the Germans who did dumb poo poo leading to the current power crisis. https://twitter.com/energybants/status/1562589041677152256 https://twitter.com/energybants/status/1562600350288293889 https://twitter.com/staunovo/status/1562729166910287877 Let's just stop maintaining all our nuclear power plants until an emergency occurs. Surely nothing bad will happen and we want to reduce nuclear power usage by half anyway. That's the French way. https://twitter.com/Jkylebass/status/1562799846758555649
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Aug 25, 2022 18:46
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The thing with hydrogen is that its going to be massively subsidized, and hope that some tech breakthrough brings the cost down.problem is, storage and transportation have been around for ages so some breakthrough there is unlikely unless some miracle happens and we find a way to transport good old H at room temperature. Electrolysis seems to be the hope of the future because you can get electricity from renewables.advances in PEM are happening almost weekly now, and there's some cool stuff happening My hope is that everything comes up aces and we find a way to get the price down to 1.5€-2€. We can probably live with that. Antifa Poltergeist fucked around with this message at 01:13 on Aug 26, 2022 |
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Aug 26, 2022 01:10
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I think there is going to have to be energy rationing during 2023 at least. Would also not be suprised if the increase in food scarcity necessitates a food rationing system as well. Ofcourse the ususal suspects will wail at this imposition. And there will much gnashing of teeth at the inclusion of special halal rations and perhaps also of special vegan rations. But i really do thing that Europe will have to do it. We might have to create public cafeterias served by industrial kitchens to get people warm food next year. Its more efficent energy wise and it will reduce food waste. With modern face recognition systems we can prevent a black market trade in ration cards. Get scanned, get your soup and bread, come back next day. Try to go twice and you`ll be banned for four days. People in professions that are critical for the physical functioning of society like doctors, nurses, binmen and nucelar engineers etc get access to better cafeterias that serve more food. To make our stand against Russia we have go full Soviet. If this really is a economic war then its time to start acting like it.
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Aug 26, 2022 15:13
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Baudolino posted:We might have to create public cafeterias served by industrial kitchens to get people warm food next year. Its more efficent energy wise and it will reduce food waste. With modern face recognition systems we can prevent a black market trade in ration cards. Get scanned, get your soup and bread, come back next day. Try to go twice and you`ll be banned for four days. People in professions that are critical for the physical functioning of society like doctors, nurses, binmen and nucelar engineers etc get access to better cafeterias that serve more food. Soup -and- bread, you say? Such luxury!
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Aug 26, 2022 15:21
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Baudolino posted:With modern face recognition systems we can prevent a black market trade in ration cards. Get scanned, get your soup and bread, come back next day. Try to go twice and you`ll be banned for four days. People in professions that are critical for the physical functioning of society like doctors, nurses, binmen and nucelar engineers etc get access to better cafeterias that serve more food. lmao (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Aug 26, 2022 15:23
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Baudolino posted:I think there is going to have to be energy rationing during 2023 at least. Would also not be suprised if the increase in food scarcity necessitates a food rationing system as well. you've already lost  (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Aug 26, 2022 15:36
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Baudolino posted:I think there is going to have to be energy rationing during 2023 at least. Would also not be suprised if the increase in food scarcity necessitates a food rationing system as well. Our hollowed out husk of a state barely even tried to rein in private interests in the name of public health, then immediately threw its hands up and we get the propaganda about how covid is seasonal and what can you do, actually brain fog helps you live better in trying times. That was an existential threat we just decided to handwave away and think really hard about it not being a big deal anymore. I don't see why the next existential threat will be any different. I sincerely hope your vision of the state trying to do something that is not turning up the racism dial to 11 has some foundations, because from where I'm watching it looks very, very bleak. mortons stork fucked around with this message at 16:22 on Aug 26, 2022 |
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Aug 26, 2022 16:20
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Saoshyant posted:
Serious answer... Get connected with a group of local amateur (as in, non-instutional) stock traders and investors. A FB group perhaps. Also SA has a business and finance subforum.
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Aug 26, 2022 16:42
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cheap euro is not great for Germany as their car market in the US is inaccessible as they like to build different spec German branded cars in the us and Mexico instead of dual speccing them. can't say I feel sorry for germany though
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Aug 26, 2022 22:47
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A devaluing currency is also one of the drivers of inflation.good thing thats totally under control. Lmao that a financial collapse, a fraudulent economic policy and priting more money than god barelly matered, and it took disruption of supply chains of actual physical goods to gum things up. I feel like someone somewhere might have written something about this.
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Aug 26, 2022 23:40
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yeah germany has won few friends and now the PIIGS are looking on rather sternly as they're scrambling to deal with getting involved in a trade war against a country they couldn't afford to have take any hostile actions against them re: EUR portfolio, just dump your assets in some index fund. you're not going to outperform those without having an arbitrary amount of money anyway
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Aug 26, 2022 23:45
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I've never been so happy not to have any money anyway. It doesn't affect me, I'm poor af anyway 
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Aug 28, 2022 15:39
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The recent Austrian proposal to redo the entire european energy market gives me some small hope. Right now the most expensive source of energy is determines 100% of the price. This has given renewables a great advantage in terms of profit margin. But during this crisis it is less than ideal. Von Leyen is in favor which is encouraging.
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Aug 29, 2022 18:03
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An insane mind posted:I've never been so happy not to have any money anyway. It doesn't affect me, I'm poor af anyway Do you live in a cave without elecricity and heating?
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Aug 31, 2022 17:15
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Pope Hilarius II posted:Do you live in a cave without elecricity and heating? ...I was talking about stock portfolios but go off fam. Of course the electricity, water and food poo poo affects me. What?
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Aug 31, 2022 17:31
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Some good news to balance that little bit of insanity from Baudolino: EU gas reserves hit 80.31% of capacity as of today. The original goal was to be at 80% by November 1st, so things are going much better than expected on that front.Saoshyant posted:So, serious question here: what are you doing (or planning to do) with your EUR portfolio? You can invest in stocks/ETFs in USD with plenty of major trading platforms that operate in Europe like eToro. If you invest (or withdraw) using a a card with very good FX rates like Revolut its even better.
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Sep 1, 2022 16:44
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Swedish government in an emergency press conference announces the enacting an emergency liquidity measure to avoid the risk a complete electricity-market collapse as markets open on monday, on account of the closing of Nord stream 1. Will call parliament into an emergency session to approve the measures. https://www.regeringen.se/pressmeddelanden/2022/09/presstraff-med-statsministern-3-september-2022/ MiddleOne fucked around with this message at 15:05 on Sep 3, 2022 |
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Sep 3, 2022 14:47
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Content is Coming.
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Sep 3, 2022 20:16
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One day I will take the Dutch seriously, but today is not that day https://nltimes.nl/2022/09/15/dutch-senator-tiny-kox-accused-ties-russian-secret-service-denounces-claim-nonsense
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Sep 16, 2022 12:09
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Tiny Kox, wtf.
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Sep 16, 2022 12:15
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Tesseraction posted:One day I will take the Dutch seriously, but today is not that day https://nltimes.nl/2022/09/15/dutch-senator-tiny-kox-accused-ties-russian-secret-service-denounces-claim-nonsense He speaks for all of us. E: in denouncing the claim of tiny cox Ee: it was funnier in my head -_-
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Sep 16, 2022 12:41
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Apparently Putin had Tiny Kox in his pocket all this time, who would have guessed.
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Sep 16, 2022 22:00
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Angry Lobster posted:Apparently Putin had Tiny Kox in his pocket all this time, who would have guessed.  I posted this story in the picture thread but only came up with a much weaker joke
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