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re the battle for kyiv: The kyiv push was a whole bunch of costly russian fuckups. they took gostomel, then did nothing there except get shelled by Ukrainians for several days. When some re-enforcements from the north did eventually meet up with the vdv remnants from gostomel they eventually pushed out towards Kiev but only made it another 2 miles towards Irpin before having a half mile column completely destroyed. That was as far as Russia pushed towards Kiev. For whatever number of reasons, the pre-staged sf and other paramilitary forces they were counting on in Kiev were ultimately almost completely ineffective and were mostly all hunted down and killed. There's still a ton of that early timeline that isn't known, but something held up the bulk of Russian forces from meeting up for several days (and it sure does appear to have been much stiffer than expected Ukrainian resistance). On that note, the roads north of kyiv are largely through terrain where you could put easily concealed defensive positions, like, anywhere at all. Because they staged a lot of materiel to push through pripyat/chernobyl area, they were limited by there only being a single major road south from there so that entire push was easily held up by attacking the front of it. The other pushes towards Kyiv didn't go to much better and all of them particularly bogged down once they started approaching artillery range of the defenses around Kyiv. idk about the specific 'single brigade hosed up Russians for several days north of kiev' but it's entirely possible. The terrain they were fighting in would've made it really easy to force unfavorable engagements and history is full of battles fought on highways that had just horrifically skewed casualty figures, and that was before modern anti-vehicle weaponry. Hell the Vietnamese had a stretch of highway where tiny numbers of vietnamese troops were routinely wrecking French columns outnumbering them 10 or more to 1. With the right terrain and good weapons, pretty much anything is possible. Highway fighting is especially brutal because the defenders you can knock out a vehicle in the middle or rear of a column and then from protected, elevated positions shoot at them with minimal danger while they're forced to clear the blockage under fire.
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Aug 30, 2022 02:28
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Crow Buddy posted:Gonna go out on a limb here and suggest you may not be able to make that determination for reasons that would be rude to point out. 100% do not care about some random internet person's opinion of me and their assessment of my reasoning skills. If I did, I wouldn't have posted here at all. This is a discussion board, where people discuss a certain topic, which is what I'm doing. If you cannot be tolerant of any opinion that is different from your own and your first instinct is to come up with things "that would be rude to point out", well this really speaks more about you than me. But in any case, everyone is entitled to their own opinion and there is no requirement for us to agree on everything. Or am I wrong about this?
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Aug 30, 2022 02:37
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saratoga posted:Sorry, I mean before the 2014 war. Pre-first war support for NATO was not high: Oh yeah, Russia's meddling in Ukraine's affairs is what really started the project 'Anti-Russia'. If they didn't interfere with the EU association agreement under Yanukovich, there'd be no Maidan and no war. It's like maybe Russia shouldn't have gone to a 'high-crime neighbourhood' to break some windows.
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Aug 30, 2022 02:40
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Herstory Begins Now posted:re the battle for kyiv: IIRC the early days of the war (god that already feels like a lifetime ago) it was pretty much a never-ending series of twitter and TikTok videos of tanks on roads getting blown the gently caress up by Javelins and the tanks not on roads getting eaten by Ukrainian Hell Mud. Looking back on it I think the Russians seriously miscalculated on when Rasputitsa was going to kick in and figured the terrain would be, while maybe not ideal, still at least be somewhat passible. That, combined with focusing on Kiev first and foremost (where and when the terrain was at its absolute worst) pretty much blunted their offense right from the get go.
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Aug 30, 2022 02:43
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Herstory Begins Now posted:re the battle for kyiv: the story about the shoot down of those two il-76 was corroborated by an unnamed american official but was never really confirmed to my satisfaction. if that did happen, and it was intended to be an immediate second wave to reinforce and build on the siezure of hostomel as was speculated, i wonder if it would have had a significant impact on the course of the battle Herstory Begins Now posted:idk about the specific 'single brigade hosed up Russians for several days north of kiev' but it's entirely possible. The terrain they were fighting in would've made it really easy to force unfavorable engagements and history is full of battles fought on highways that had just horrifically skewed casualty figures, and that was before modern anti-vehicle weaponry. Hell the Vietnamese had a stretch of highway where tiny numbers of vietnamese troops were routinely wrecking French columns outnumbering them 10 or more to 1. With the right terrain and good weapons, pretty much anything is possible. Highway fighting is especially brutal because the defenders you can knock out a vehicle in the middle or rear of a column and then from protected, elevated positions shoot at them with minimal danger while they're forced to clear the blockage under fire. yeah, i mean a bunch of videos documenting the aftermath and occasionally the ambushes themselves were posted in this thread as events played out edit: MechanicalTomPetty posted:IIRC the early days of the war (god that already feels like a lifetime ago) it was pretty much a never-ending series of twitter and TikTok videos of tanks on roads getting blown the gently caress up by Javelins and the tanks not on roads getting eaten by Ukrainian Hell Mud. Looking back on it I think the Russians seriously miscalculated on when Rasputitsa was going to kick in and figured the terrain would be, while maybe not ideal, still at least be somewhat passible. That, combined with focusing on Kiev first and foremost (where and when the terrain was at its absolute worst) pretty much blunted their offense right from the get go. well i think their real miscalculation was the assumption that their columns be cruising along the highways from major city to major city facing token opposition at best as they were greeted as liberators GhostofJohnMuir fucked around with this message at 02:47 on Aug 30, 2022 |
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Aug 30, 2022 02:43
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:well i think their real miscalculation was the assumption that their columns be cruising along the highways from major city to major city facing token opposition at best as they were greeted as liberators Safely assumed given that they were packing parade uniforms and had columns of riot police lined up.
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Aug 30, 2022 02:57
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:the story about the shoot down of those two il-76 was corroborated by an unnamed american official but was never really confirmed to my satisfaction. if that did happen, and it was intended to be an immediate second wave to reinforce and build on the siezure of hostomel as was speculated, i wonder if it would have had a significant impact on the course of the battle Remember the video of that APC sitting in the middle of a small city with a loud speaker telling Ukrainians to not worry and that Russians were coming, before getting blasted by multiple RPGs?
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Aug 30, 2022 02:57
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Pook Good Mook posted:Remember the video of that APC sitting in the middle of a small city with a loud speaker telling Ukrainians to not worry and that Russians were coming, before getting blasted by multiple RPGs? I missed this, can you repost this?
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Aug 30, 2022 02:59
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MechanicalTomPetty posted:IIRC the early days of the war (god that already feels like a lifetime ago) it was pretty much a never-ending series of twitter and TikTok videos of tanks on roads getting blown the gently caress up by Javelins and the tanks not on roads getting eaten by Ukrainian Hell Mud. Looking back on it I think the Russians seriously miscalculated on when Rasputitsa was going to kick in and figured the terrain would be, while maybe not ideal, still at least be somewhat passible. That, combined with focusing on Kiev first and foremost (where and when the terrain was at its absolute worst) pretty much blunted their offense right from the get go. Remember, Putin likely delayed the invasion until after the Olympics to not irritate Xi.
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Aug 30, 2022 03:11
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ZombieLenin posted:In fact, what about the article TASS accidentally published in March—because you know victory in three days or what not. RIA, not TASS. Big difference
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Aug 30, 2022 03:21
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Orthanc6 posted:I think Russia was simply incapable of doing anything about it. They already had to abandon the entire Kyiv front very early in the war, and have only been able to inch across land right next to Luhansk which Russia has been stewing in for 8 years. And then Ukraine did the exact right thing of finding a chokepoint to pinch off, and blow up as many ammo stores as possible in the lead up. To go back to this, I think their forces are just exhausted and wantonly overextended by commanders whose one goal is to stay the discontent of the dictator in the immediate term. I don't think they could keep up.
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Aug 30, 2022 03:24
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Doccers posted:I missed this, can you repost this? https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1498368616617721857
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Aug 30, 2022 03:34
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Borlorg posted:Case in point: there is a high-crime neighborhood about 45 minutes away from where I live. Vast majority of its residents are of a different background than mine according to the census, so if I decided to go there to have a walk, it would be easier for me to get spotted as an outsider. Statistically speaking, violent crime occurs there a lot more frequently than in other areas and it is a known fact. Do the criminals have a legal right to assault me just because I put myself in an area where they feel I do not belong? Obviously, not. But, am I going to take those particular circumstances into consideration when deciding where to take a walk? Absolutely! Because at the end of the day, I own the consequences of my decision and it is foolish for me to expect anything otherwise.  (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Aug 30, 2022 03:36
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:i'm sorry that you're the victim of these assumptions. perhaps it would help if you clarified which census statistic you had in mind? perhaps it's educational attainment, and your mortarboard gives you away as an outsider? Men who know what's good for them do not walk alone in Little Amazontown after dark. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Aug 30, 2022 03:43
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Yeah I don't know if it's, uh, too heavy a degree of posting about posters or refusing to take someone in good faith, but borlog's tepid skit jumped right to the hot & heavy bait phase that was 100% racism so take the time to report immediately when you clown his introductory poo poo to cut down on the derails (for next time) (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Aug 30, 2022 03:46
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Kavros posted:Yeah I don't know if it's, uh, too heavy a degree of posting about posters or refusing to take someone in good faith, but borlog's tepid skit jumped right to the hot & heavy bait phase that was 100% racism so take the time to report immediately when you clown his introductory poo poo to cut down on the derails (for next time) Oh, believe me those posts were reported. About 11 times if I counted correctly.
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Aug 30, 2022 04:03
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That's probably enough posting about posting/posters. I'll let cinci decide how to handle that as it's his thread.
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Aug 30, 2022 04:12
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Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.   
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Aug 30, 2022 04:13
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:i wonder what amount of armor ukraine has been able to commit to this offensive. the lack of ifv and apcs specifically is something i've seen called out as impeding their ability to go on the offence, and while some armored vehicles have been included in western aid i don't recall it being a large part of any package. 
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Aug 30, 2022 05:40
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Ukraine: military situation update with maps August 28 2022 (Ukrainian attack on Kherson bridgehead) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJheVA9w88A
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Aug 30, 2022 06:05
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i do remember several western countries committing to deliver m113s, but if i remember correctly it was somewhere in the ballpark of 300 m113s total. i guess i assumed that wasn't enough to be the backbone of a major counter offensive
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Aug 30, 2022 06:10
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Mr. Apollo posted:Based on this photo claiming to be from the front of the counteroffensive, it looks like Ukraine is using M113s to fill the IFV/APC role. Man, fiddle with the settings on that photo and it could pass as a Vietnam war era shot.
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Aug 30, 2022 06:34
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I hope that the battle of Kherson does not turn into another Stalingrad. But the association keeps popping up I my head. Big city on the bank of a big river, surrounded by fields and steppe. High strategic and propaganda value. The force holding the city is supposedly inferior to the advancing much more modern and disciplined army. Big offensive in autumn. I hope that the similarities and there, and they it won't be a room-by-room battle that kills all the inhabitants.
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Aug 30, 2022 06:34
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Mr. Apollo posted:Based on this photo claiming to be from the front of the counteroffensive, it looks like Ukraine is using M113s to fill the IFV/APC role. And pictures like these dont help to alleviate the WW2 association
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Aug 30, 2022 06:38
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I recall there was a goon who mentioned they lived under an air corridor that was being used to send supplies from Poland to Ukraine. They said that the usual traffic was a couple of C-130s a week. However, recently it had increased to several C-130s a day. I’m guessing those were all shipments of equipment and supplies in preparation for this counteroffensive.
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Aug 30, 2022 06:51
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i'm a pessimist by nature, so i'm very prepared for this offensive to stall out for any number of reasons, but the russians fighting a desperate room by room defensive action is not one of them. i have a hard time seeing what might have changed in the 5-6 months that have passed since russian troops were abandoning their vehicles along the road to kyiv when confronted with supply issues and stiff resitance. they're invaders in an occupied city with an active (if probably smaller than advertised) partisan movement, not defenders of their own city in a war of extermination
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Aug 30, 2022 06:54
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:i'm a pessimist by nature, so i'm very prepared for this offensive to stall out for any number of reasons, but the russians fighting a desperate room by room defensive action is not one of them. i have a hard time seeing what might have changed in the 5-6 months that have passed since russian troops were abandoning their vehicles along the road to kyiv when confronted with supply issues and stiff resitance. they're invaders in an occupied city with an active (if probably smaller than advertised) partisan movement, not defenders of their own city in a war of extermination One major difference is that near Kyiv they had overextended into hostile territory with no real plan and were being shot at from every direction, including up. In Kherson they've had 6 months to - in theory -- set up defensive positions.
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Aug 30, 2022 07:30
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MechanicalTomPetty posted:IIRC the early days of the war (god that already feels like a lifetime ago) it was pretty much a never-ending series of twitter and TikTok videos of tanks on roads getting blown the gently caress up by Javelins and the tanks not on roads getting eaten by Ukrainian Hell Mud. Looking back on it I think the Russians seriously miscalculated on when Rasputitsa was going to kick in and figured the terrain would be, while maybe not ideal, still at least be somewhat passible. That, combined with focusing on Kiev first and foremost (where and when the terrain was at its absolute worst) pretty much blunted their offense right from the get go. I remember it being reported that Xi warned Putin not to do anything militarily during the Winter Olympics, and they ran from Feb 4 through Feb 20. The invasion kicked off 4 days later but that month of delays from when Putin was likely wanting to go cost them the frozen ground and gave them Hell Mud instead
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Aug 30, 2022 07:52
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TheRat posted:One major difference is that near Kyiv they had overextended into hostile territory with no real plan and were being shot at from every direction, including up. In Kherson they've had 6 months to - in theory -- set up defensive positions. Feels like they spent the time getting drunk and harassing (or worse) the locals instead of setting up defensive positions. That said it is probably too early to call.
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Aug 30, 2022 08:02
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Lord Stimperor posted:I hope that the battle of Kherson does not turn into another Stalingrad. But the association keeps popping up I my head. Big city on the bank of a big river, surrounded by fields and steppe. High strategic and propaganda value. The force holding the city is supposedly inferior to the advancing much more modern and disciplined army. Big offensive in autumn. I hope that the similarities and there, and they it won't be a room-by-room battle that kills all the inhabitants. The association popped into mine as well but i think that's just a surface level thing. Three defence lines to overcome before any city combat ensues.
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Aug 30, 2022 08:24
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Lord Stimperor posted:I hope that the battle of Kherson does not turn into another Stalingrad. But the association keeps popping up I my head. Big city on the bank of a big river, surrounded by fields and steppe. High strategic and propaganda value. The force holding the city is supposedly inferior to the advancing much more modern and disciplined army. Big offensive in autumn. I hope that the similarities and there, and they it won't be a room-by-room battle that kills all the inhabitants. I don't think the defenders have the morale for that. Defending your homeland vs defending some random city where everyone hates you and you never wanted to be there in the first place, your number one priority will be to get out alive. Also I'm not sure how house to house fighting would be affected by a large civilian population that are both hostile to the defenders and have access to their own weapons and communications with the attacking forces. One of the reasons you have to go house by house is not knowing which house the defenders are hiding in, but information from the population could really help here - it can also allow the Ukrainians to easily outflank defended positions if their are blocks of friendly buildings throughout the city. I really hope we see a rapid collapse rather than a drawn out bloodbath. I can't imagine the Russians fighting to the last man but modern warfare can be brutal.
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Aug 30, 2022 08:48
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Mr. Apollo posted:Based on this photo claiming to be from the front of the counteroffensive, it looks like Ukraine is using M113s to fill the IFV/APC role. Those are ex-Dutch YPR 765's and an odd choice to use offensively. It's only got a .50 gun for armament with the gunner behind a light shield and is just a metal box on tracks. They used to have a 25mm cannon but all those ones were sold off and only the ex-UN service ones, the ones who had their big guns removed for peacekeeping were left to donate. Maybe the weight saved that way means some extra armor can be bolted on.
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Aug 30, 2022 09:19
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https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1564494132910899200?t=4dorxOwq3-tZdb7HMAy6zg&s=19
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Aug 30, 2022 09:20
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fatherboxx posted:https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1564494132910899200?t=4dorxOwq3-tZdb7HMAy6zg&s=19 Is that a fake one in the photo? It looks incredibly convincing even from close up, like it even uses real lights. There's a long history of this ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dummy_tank ) but none of those in the photos look even remotely convincing from the distance taken in the photograph, although I'm sure from a plane or satellite they would look just fine. Seems like mass manufacturing rubber ones is probably a better use of time than getting a team of artisans to lovingly craft a beautiful HIMARS out of wood, but maybe modern satellites can really tell the difference. Although I doubt Russian ones can.
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Aug 30, 2022 09:56
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https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1562818177985544194?t=hQlhmLn-fyIkZ6hxwq94MA&s=19 Habeck has announced that since storage targets have been met and even exceeded, Germany will stop buying gas at any cost on the market. Other countries are announcing the same. Prices should start going down now as demand drops. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/gas-prices-fall-soon-germany-hits-storage-targets-says-minister-2022-08-29/ GABA ghoul fucked around with this message at 10:08 on Aug 30, 2022 |
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Aug 30, 2022 09:58
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https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1564534663430807553 Rats and sinking ships
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Aug 30, 2022 10:03
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Saladman posted:Is that a fake one in the photo? It looks incredibly convincing even from close up, like it even uses real lights. It's not. This is the caption for that photo in the story: "A Ukrainian serviceman opens the door to a vehicle equipped with a High Mobility Artillery Rocket System in eastern Ukraine on July 1. (Anastasia Vlasova for The Washington Post)"
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Aug 30, 2022 10:19
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Saladman posted:Is that a fake one in the photo? It looks incredibly convincing even from close up, like it even uses real lights. There's a long history of this ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dummy_tank ) but none of those in the photos look even remotely convincing from the distance taken in the photograph, although I'm sure from a plane or satellite they would look just fine. Looks like a wooden decoy built on top of a real automotive base, like some kind of cheap light truck
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Aug 30, 2022 10:19
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Moon Slayer posted:Unrelated to the Ukrainian counteroffensive, but I haven't been able to stop thinking about this excerpt from last week's Washington Post's story about the defense of Kyiv: Probably something like these 2 videos:  Russian armour gets blown up by various meanshttps://youtube.com/watch?v=icSJPqkzupI https://youtube.com/watch?v=BfTrQiFkWyk
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Aug 30, 2022 10:56
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NTRabbit posted:Looks like a wooden decoy built on top of a real automotive base, like some kind of cheap light truck In the WW2 days of decoy vehicles you only had to fool sporadic aerial reconnaissance. If your inflatable/cloth tank got moved around a bit every day, or the spy planes couldn't take clear pictures, it'd likely fool them. In the age of spy sats and high definition drone footage I'm guessing you're better off with a wooden fake that can actually drive around, to mimick a real vehicle moving into a firing position. This does explain why Russia keeps claiming to have destroyed X number of donated NATO artillery pieces, while Ukraine insists they're all actice. Russia sees a fake, falls for it and it gets obliterated, erroneously adding one to their tally.
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Aug 30, 2022 11:04
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