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mortons stork
Oct 13, 2012
is the new constitution actually gonna fail? i hope to gently caress this is just centrist rubbing their hands with glee at the thought of a left failure because god help us all if it does

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vyelkin
Jan 2, 2011

mortons stork posted:

is the new constitution actually gonna fail? i hope to gently caress this is just centrist rubbing their hands with glee at the thought of a left failure because god help us all if it does

supposedly polling has been showing more people intending to reject it than to approve it, but a) lol polling, and b) voting in the referendum is mandatory for everyone over 18, so it's especially hard to predict what effect that will have

we won't know until the counting's done, basically

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

SplitSoul posted:

Less tangibly, we plunged the country's democracy into decades of brutal military dictatorship.

"was being crushed" you say?

Ohh, wonder by whom?

zetamind2000
Nov 6, 2007

I'm an alien.

Doktor Avalanche posted:

so the new pink tide turns out to be a dud?

Bolivia and Colombia are looking pretty good

indigi
Jul 20, 2004

how can we not talk about family
when family's all that we got?

WhiskeyWhiskers posted:

Sure, until you want to update the definition of marriage again and have to go through the huge pain of changing a constitution again. Honestly, it's a weird thing to define in a constitution anyway.

ok so why didn't they pass a law in 2018

I’m trying to understand why they waited 5 years after party leaders said they planned to legalize it to do a referendum rather than simply pass a law and I can't find any beyond "they didn’t actually want to legalize it" which doesn't feel true but I’m not finding any alternatives

indigi has issued a correction as of 15:04 on Sep 4, 2022

unwantedplatypus
Sep 6, 2012
Why would a country constantly under threat of foreign intervention wait for a consensus before passing society-shifting legislation? The world may never know.

Polling looks good but there’s not insignificant pushback from, for example, religious groups. From what I can tell.

Submarine Sandpaper
May 27, 2007


WhiskeyWhiskers posted:

Sure, until you want to update the definition of marriage again and have to go through the huge pain of changing a constitution again. Honestly, it's a weird thing to define in a constitution anyway.

Not every country is purposefully dysfunctional as the US. Change can be enacted if desired.

Atrocious Joe
Sep 2, 2011

Cuban governance isn't just about making a change in law and saying the issue is fixed. Stuff like the Family Code and prior to that the Constitutional reform followed a process of popular consultation. The practical reason for delaying the family code was probably to give time for a separate process specifically for family code issues.

quote:

The final version of the new Family Code, which will be submitted to a popular referendum on September 25, was published in the Official Gazette of the Republic No. 87, Ordinary.

On June 22, the National Assembly of People's Power unanimously approved this Law after a broad process of widespread consultation. The approved version (number 25) modified 49.15 percent of the articles in relation to the previous proposal, based on the suggestions derived from the debates, and also incorporated issues that represent 2.06 percent of the document.

Such modifications did not include changes that would limit the access of people in equality to legal-family institutions such as marriage, affective union, adoption, and assisted reproduction techniques, nor those that threaten the positive notion of upbringing without violence, parental responsibility, and the progressive autonomy of children and adolescents.

Oscar Silvera Martínez, Minister of Justice, said during the Assembly sessions that this is a worthy norm, a reflection of the reality of Cubans, and a guarantor of the Constitution of the Republic and its principles.
https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Final-Version-of-Cubas-Family-Code-Released-in-Official-Gazette-20220818-0012.html


It's pretty clear the Cuban leadership wants to build widespread support for the code before sending it to a general vote. Look at the discussion about Chile to see how a good change in the country can still be voted down. In the context of Cuba, it's unlikely the code will be voted down, but if it only gets 51% support that's not good. The US is ready to exploit any divisions in the country. With the blockade leading to blackouts and shortages of other essentials, people in Cuba are under a lot of pressure.

quote:

"Intensive work has been done throughout the popular consultation on the draft Families Code, despite the difficulties the country is facing," stated Party First Secretary and President of the Republic Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez, during a May 10 meeting he held with members of the Drafting Commission, working on the text which must be an accurate reflection of Cuba’s current reality and our Constitution.

During the meeting, also attended by Political Bureau members Salvador Valdés Mesa, Vice President of the Republic; Roberto Morales Ojeda, Party Secretary of Organization; along with other Secretariat members, Alina Balseiro Gutiérrez, President of the National Electoral Council, stressed that the extensive consultation process of the text across the country concluded with the participation of more than 6,480,000 persons, in more than 79,000 meetings.

Among the issues that generated the greatest number of proposals, she highlighted those referring to "marriage, parental responsibility, adoption, solidarity gestation, progressive autonomy, order of surnames, discrimination and violence within the family, as well as assisted reproduction."

According to Roberto Morales Ojeda, the popular consultation process concluded favorably, but much work remains in creating a Code that he defined as "modern and inclusive, one which eliminates inequalities."

In this sense, Minister of Justice Oscar Silvera Martínez, explained the schedule of tasks to be completed prior to the presentation of the draft Families Code to the National Assembly of People's Power.

In statements to the press, he explained that on May 15 the National Electoral Council will deliver to the National Assembly of People's Power its conclusive summary of the national popular consultation, including all the statistical data, paragraph by paragraph, item by item.

The Drafting Commission– which was established last year by the Council of State – will receive this information and carefully study its contents.

The drafting of this critical, historic document has been a work of consensus-building and meticulous study, as Silvera noted, pointing out that the team will be responsible for making decisions regarding the inclusion of changes and modifications under consideration based on proposals made during the popular consultation.
https://en.granma.cu/cuba/2022-05-12/cubas-new-families-code-a-pathway-for-these-times

Eradicating sexism and anti-LGBTQ bigotry is a long process, and Cuba is serious about it. The US legalized gay marriage and trans people are still murdered in the street. Cuba faces a similar issue with eradicating racism in the country. Cubans know a single change in laws won't make the situation perfect. The laws are part of a larger process of overcoming those deeply embedded inequalities and bigotries.

youngweeed
Jun 22, 2022
What’s up thread I just started learning español. Wanting to move to Cuba.. I’m currently in Canada, though, so seems really difficult, so I’ve made it my “long term” goal once I get more professional experience that may potentially land me a position at an international company based there. I’m open to studying abroad or moving to a different country first if it’d somehow help my chances. I’ve just learned of Cuba’s International Film School which seems like a solid program for me if I can get in there

indigi
Jul 20, 2004

how can we not talk about family
when family's all that we got?

Atrocious Joe posted:

Eradicating sexism and anti-LGBTQ bigotry is a long process, and Cuba is serious about it. The US legalized gay marriage and trans people are still murdered in the street. Cuba faces a similar issue with eradicating racism in the country. Cubans know a single change in laws won't make the situation perfect. The laws are part of a larger process of overcoming those deeply embedded inequalities and bigotries.

that's a great answer, thank you. I wonder what if any impact giving catholic orgs 5 years to do counter-propaganda has had

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

youngweeed posted:

What’s up thread I just started learning español. Wanting to move to Cuba.. I’m currently in Canada, though, so seems really difficult, so I’ve made it my “long term” goal once I get more professional experience that may potentially land me a position at an international company based there. I’m open to studying abroad or moving to a different country first if it’d somehow help my chances. I’ve just learned of Cuba’s International Film School which seems like a solid program for me if I can get in there

hey welcome! i think your best resource for learning about this experience is the author j sakai

SexyBlindfold
Apr 24, 2008
i dont care how much probation i get capital letters are for squares hehe im so laid back an nice please read my low effort shitposts about the arab spring

thanxs!!!
I have basically zero hope for an Apruebo victory, but if I've learned anything in this entire cycle it's that I should dress up in full-blown clown regalia before attempting to predict anything, so I guess we'll see.

youngweeed
Jun 22, 2022

i say swears online posted:

hey welcome! i think your best resource for learning about this experience is the author j sakai

added to my read list thanks!

SexyBlindfold
Apr 24, 2008
i dont care how much probation i get capital letters are for squares hehe im so laid back an nice please read my low effort shitposts about the arab spring

thanxs!!!
Official results aren't even out yet but vote counts from communes that were expected to be Apruebo strongholds are looking pretty poo poo. It doesn't even seem like it'll be close. I'd say that at least means I can go to bed early but I'm in a Rechazo area so I've probably got 12+ hours of ecstatic car honking to look forward to.
Maybe focusing your campaign on rallying the base on a referendum where voting is mandatory is stupid as gently caress, who knows, let's try again in 30 years when we try to bring down a constitution that will probably be written by Cristian loving Warnken at this point

e: lmao it's somehow even worse than "not even close". it's a total wipeout. it was all for nothing.

SexyBlindfold has issued a correction as of 23:54 on Sep 4, 2022

Negostrike
Aug 15, 2015


Turns out we Latin Americans can't have nice things after all

indigi
Jul 20, 2004

how can we not talk about family
when family's all that we got?

SexyBlindfold posted:

Official results aren't even out yet but vote counts from communes that were expected to be Apruebo strongholds are looking pretty poo poo. It doesn't even seem like it'll be close. I'd say that at least means I can go to bed early but I'm in a Rechazo area so I've probably got 12+ hours of ecstatic car honking to look forward to.
Maybe focusing your campaign on rallying the base on a referendum where voting is mandatory is stupid as gently caress, who knows, let's try again in 30 years when we try to bring down a constitution that will probably be written by Cristian loving Warnken at this point

e: lmao it's somehow even worse than "not even close". it's a total wipeout. it was all for nothing.

that stinks. I’m sorry

SexyBlindfold
Apr 24, 2008
i dont care how much probation i get capital letters are for squares hehe im so laid back an nice please read my low effort shitposts about the arab spring

thanxs!!!
Well, I'd like to see ol' neoliberalism wriggle its way out of THIS jam!
*neoliberalism wriggles its way out of the jam easily*
Ah. Well, nevertheless,

unwantedplatypus
Sep 6, 2012
I've been purposefully not paying attention to Chilean news out of fear of being disappointed, but I'm really sorry for you guys. I hope ya'll can rally after this somehow.

indigi
Jul 20, 2004

how can we not talk about family
when family's all that we got?
there was so much optimism just last year, it sucks to see that run into a brick wall

SexyBlindfold
Apr 24, 2008
i dont care how much probation i get capital letters are for squares hehe im so laid back an nice please read my low effort shitposts about the arab spring

thanxs!!!
I lost hope of a good outcome at some point in the last couple of months, when most Apruebo supporters I'd come across appeared to become increasingly detached from reality and their paths to victory all seemed to rest on the idea of a vast pollster conspiracy out to demoralize them, and on the inexplicable belief that everyone who didn't vote in the first referendum was a surefire Apruebo vote. All along I was just praying that I'd be wrong as usual, and that polls somehow all hosed up (the left does usually outperform polls by a few points, Kast's win in the first presidential round being a major exception) and non-voters would turn out to be a wildcard. And I was wrong! the result was somehow even worse than the worst nightmare scenario predicted by the polls, and drat near every non-voter appears to have voted Rechazo.

indigi posted:

there was so much optimism just last year, it sucks to see that run into a brick wall

now it's time for a new constitutional draft, this time with elected members sharing the work with a "panel of experts", which will be dominated by libs and the far right, so there's still time for it to get worse!

SexyBlindfold has issued a correction as of 00:31 on Sep 5, 2022

Medieval Medic
Sep 8, 2011

unwantedplatypus posted:

I've been purposefully not paying attention to Chilean news out of fear of being disappointed, but I'm really sorry for you guys. I hope ya'll can rally after this somehow.

Game is over bro. Nothing will change, maybe a couple of aesthetic touchups to the current constitution. It sucks, but that is what the people spoke, so it is what it is.

Atrocious Joe
Sep 2, 2011

https://twitter.com/vijayprashad/status/1566576002872000512?s=20&t=2mM7i-xDclJIaKfeo6cN8Q

Weird to have a Colombian president that is anti-Pinochet.

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

(and can't post for 20 days!)

I want to believe in Colombia.

America Inc.
Nov 22, 2013

I plan to live forever, of course, but barring that I'd settle for a couple thousand years. Even 500 would be pretty nice.
So apparently the right-wing disinformation campaigns saying the constitution would eliminate all private property, allow nine-month abortions and abolish the flag won out.

Halser
Aug 24, 2016

America Inc. posted:

So apparently the right-wing disinformation campaigns saying the constitution would eliminate all private property, allow nine-month abortions and abolish the flag won out.

I think by the sheer amount of people with easy access to information that still eat that poo poo up, a lot of them are just willingly ignorant because it fits their preconceived notions.

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!
What a blow. Hope Chile can avoid the worst of the reactionary backlash.

Doktor Avalanche
Dec 30, 2008

Halser posted:

I think by the sheer amount of people with easy access to information that still eat that poo poo up, a lot of them are just willingly ignorant because it fits their preconceived notions.

the masses are dumb as poo poo and communism's goal is to prevent them from destroying themselves and everybody else, i don't care if it sounds arrogant it's simply true

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

Doktor Avalanche posted:

the masses are dumb as poo poo and communism's goal is to prevent them from destroying themselves and everybody else, i don't care if it sounds arrogant it's simply true

Having to hear the poo poo people say about Covid has brought me around to this view.

And I don't mean politicians or others with a vested interest in sacrificing lives for capital. I mean regular people including friends and family.

Honky Mao
Dec 26, 2012

So much for revolution by the ballot

Honky Mao
Dec 26, 2012

They should've just swapped out the old scroll for the new handbook in secret like a National Treasure heist

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.
people are stupid and deserve to suffer so you should force good things upon them so they don’t get what they deserve

AnimeIsTrash
Jun 30, 2018

mortons stork posted:

is the new constitution actually gonna fail? i hope to gently caress this is just centrist rubbing their hands with glee at the thought of a left failure because god help us all if it does

Does anyone have any deeper analysis about why it failed? From what I understand boric is unpopular and there are a ton of rival fractions within his coalition.

I think Castillo failed in Peru for similar reasons.

Some Guy TT
Aug 30, 2011

AnimeIsTrash posted:

Does anyone have any deeper analysis about why it failed?

https://mobile.twitter.com/epkaufm/status/1566711674660331521

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

as far as i can tell it tried to do a lot of the stuff that you'd normally have normal laws do and it got cast as seriously overreaching by the opposition. combined with mandatory participation in the vote this led to a kind of frenzy of contempt combined with being associated with a not-especially-effectual government

sexyblindfold pls correct if i'm wrong here

SexyBlindfold
Apr 24, 2008
i dont care how much probation i get capital letters are for squares hehe im so laid back an nice please read my low effort shitposts about the arab spring

thanxs!!!
While the overreach was mentioned from time to time, it was hardly the crux of any argument except those aimed at lawyers. Rather, the Rechazo campaign often relied on that overreach in order to condemn the proposal for everything it didn't include.
For example, an article of the proposal forbade people sentenced for corruption, or for crimes against humanity, from running for office. It didn't extend that prohibition to other crimes, since those restrictions are already defined by law. Soundbite: Apruebo means drug dealers, pedophiles and terrorists can run for office. Rebuttal: They can't, the law says so. Counter-rebuttal: The left is going to change the law. Hell, they're already letting them vote.

Just gonna xpost from d&d for the rest:

SexyBlindfold posted:

I could say that the outcome was entirely a result of the grotesque disparity in funding between both camps, the Apruebo campaign being heavily decentralized, and the insane amount of disinfo being pumped into the airwaves and timelines 24/7, but those things were also present in the first referendum, the election for constitutional members, the legislative elections and the presidentials, so no, I don't think that was the entire reason.

As early as last year, there was a general understanding that the final referendum would be, to a degree, a popularity vote on whoever was president at the time (I think I recall a couple of spicy leftist takes wondering if it wouldn't be better for the right to win the presidentials, for the same reason). But if polls are anything to go by, the constitutional assembly ended up being significantly less popular than Boric. Then again, pollsters ended up inflating the Apruebo's chances by like 10 points, so the slow recovery of Boric's approval numbers in the last couple of months might be equally illusory.

The weight of leftist opposition to Boric might account for *some* of his drop in popularity, but the *overwhelming majority* of it boils down to crime and inflation (plus some unpopular ministers, Siches probably chief among them) that have left the population at large angry and afraid. Boric's coalition is a herd of cats (and will likely cease to exist soon, as each group reposition themselves in light of last night's results), but there's no organized movement consistently attacking Boric from the left unless you count electorally irrelevant MLM, Trotskyist and Hoxhaist groups, which might have some increased visibility for outside observers since they're some of the few who write about Chilean affairs in english. When it comes to the rank and file left-leaning voter, yeah there's been some disillusion about incorporating ex-Concerta figures and softening the government's stance on a number of topics, but these were largely things that were made evident from before Boric took office (due to the way Congress ended up and the desperate pivot to the center after the disastrous first round in the presidentials) so these likely weren't things that eroded his support by themselves. I certainly don't expect his numbers to get any better after last night, though.

The weight of leftist opposition to the new constitution, in the meantime, was basically nonexistent. There were a few calls not to vote or to spoil the ballot because the proposal "didn't represent the streets", but whether these came from genuine groups I've never heard about or from psy-ops bullshit, numbers suggest they had no meaningful effect. Even if there were voices in the left with some misgivings about the proposal not including some of the original ideas (full nationalization of mineral resources and a couple of things regarding intellectual property, to name a couple) they tended to bite their lip and call for a Yes vote regardless. As far as it came to backing from organized political forces (parties, pressure groups or otherwise), the opposition to the new constitution was in the end entirely center and right-of-center.

And ~~center-left~~, I guess.

Something that became pretty clear to both camps as the campaign for the second referendum started was that it would be decided by who did the best job in shelving their most unpopular figures. The Apruebo camp struggled with this, while the Rechazo camp learned from their disastrous previous effort and stuffed Kast and the far right into a locker, and right-wing figures in general kept a low profile in the campaign. Or at least they kept a low profile in what could be considered the official campaign - TV ads, talk shows, interviews, and so on. They were set free on social media, where they were free to go even more unhinged than in the first referendum. Their role in the mainstream media was instead largely outsourced to Amarillos por Chile, an astroturfed platform of "citizens who've become disillusioned and concerned with the divisive text of the constitutional proposal and instead favor a new proposal that could unite the country". Amarillos's actual stances on what the constitution should include were vague enough, and their general tone was Hallmark card-bullshit enough, that they could be sold as "moderate, progressive center-left" if you were the kind of voter who "doesn't follow politics". They were headed by Cristián Warnken, a literary critic chiefly known for hosting a cultural interview show some years ago. Generally considered a milquetoast intellectual, Warnken became obsessed with cancel culture around the time of the riots and became increasingly employed by the right wing when they needed a 'progressive' voice against the 'far left'. Somewhat similar was the case of Javiera Parada, though her case was particularly stinging to the left since she's the daughter of one of the most high-profile victims of Pinochet's dictatorship (Slit Throats Case, if you want a trip down memory lane). She was initially a member of the Frente Amplio and considered part of the moderate wing, then became terminally decorum-brained during the riots and from then on became largely a joke among the left since she entirely devolved into a "you might be wondering what a leftist like me is doing supporting a right-wing candidate like this" type, for increasingly doomed candidates. Looks like she had the last laugh in the end.

The ~center left~ wing of the Rechazo camp appeared to be limited to Amarillos for a while, but when the polls became consistently favorable to the Rechazo option, they slowly started to peel off ex-Concerta figures. These included those who had an axe to grind, like Christian Democrat Ximena Rincón, who was ratfucked out of a presidential run by her own party in the last election, and had been losing influence in the DC to more pro-Boric figures like Claudia Pizarro. You can actually see Rincón's timeline doing a 180° on the constitutional proposal basically overnight, and I wouldn't be surprised if she was offered a leadership spot in whatever abomination Amarillos por Chile morphs into in order to sweeten the deal. But eventually it went beyond figures who'd always been part of the radical centrist fringe, and by the time the poll numbers were particularly bad there was a solid number of ex-concerta wonks crossing the lines.

There was a marked difference between the campaign on TV (in charge of libs) and on social media (in charge of the far-right), but the talking points were pretty similar. Communists are going to take away your home, communists are going to take away your pensions, if you're not native you're going to become a second-class citizen, Mapuche terrorists are going to walk free, etc. The 'moderates' coated this in a layer of "but we want something that can ~unite us~" paint, while the far-right added a few extra tracks online such as "Apruebo is literally Wallmapu separatism" and "Degenerates are salivating at the thought of the new constitution letting them teach anal sex to preschoolers".

It's hard to say exactly what the Apruebo camp did wrong, since I might bemoan that they focused on rallying the base rather than aiming at independents and undecideds, but by all accounts there was a colossal canvassing effort (a practice that is actually not that widespread in Chilean elections) and a massive printing and distribution of copies of the constitutional proposal so people could disprove the more outrageous lies by themselves, and by every metric the copies were flying off the shelves (and off the mats of bootleg book vendors, which is the one metric that counts). Honestly, I feel like ever since the Rojas Vade fiasco (a left-independent constitutional member who got elected on the basis of a terminal cancer diagnose, which ended up being a complete fabrication), the pro-proposal camp went into the defensive and it never managed to regain the momentum. It also struggled to find good figures, since the government was mandated to remain at least superficially neutral, and most constitutional members proved to be pretty poo poo at communicating. Atria was too much of an academic, Stingo was painted as an unhinged lunatic, Loncon was soundbited into appearing pro-separatism, the entire Lista del Pueblo was a joke, etc. They got Bachelet's endorsement, which for some reason was expected to be a gamechanger (I might have even believed it too, because I'm a loving idiot), but by that point the campaign was dealing with PR nightmares practically every day, like the goddamn wipe-your-rear end-with-the-flag performance.

All in all, this felt like the bizarro world counterpart to the first referendum. Deep down, everybody know it was going to be a defeat, once you got past the most unhinged denials of reality. It was the extent of the damage that was the real surprise, and I don't think we're gonna recover.

Atrocious Joe
Sep 2, 2011

The Kyle Rittenhouse Cultural Center got itself raided after celebrating the attempted assassination of Kirchner

https://twitter.com/3r1nG/status/1566934152527728641?s=20&t=HAXiTCgVxiY_tXQjve6p9Q
https://twitter.com/3r1nG/status/1566934164745617408?s=20&t=HAXiTCgVxiY_tXQjve6p9Q

ArmedZombie
Jun 6, 2004
Probation
Can't post for 6 hours!

antifa is still the real fascists :colbert:

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!
A drone and a live mortar shell in possession of someone in favor of assassination you say?


We’re going to see so much wild poo poo in the next few years aren’t we?

Some Guy TT
Aug 30, 2011

https://mobile.twitter.com/KenRoth/status/1567542294076612608

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Mr. Lobe
Feb 23, 2007

... Dry bones...


Why isn't that diseased weirdo dead yet though

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