|
The idea that the sanctions will prove too painful or uncomfortable for regular europeans has absolutely no basis in reality. Apart from gas and oil Russia has almost nothing that Europe needs, and gas and oil can be found elsewhere with less bullshit attached. Even if european military support for Ukraine drops off, the sanctions are going nowhere. Just look at Iran, Cuba, North Korea. Once these sanctions have been in place a few years there's virtually no further cost in just keeping them in place indefinitely, and the average european won't even notice they're there.
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 08:19
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 12, 2024 21:27 |
|
|
NTRabbit posted:Macron isn't compromised, Macron is pro Macron, Nobel Peace Prize recipient, the article that mentioned the cheering in his office when Putin agreed to think about talking to him before going out to play Ice Hockey made that abundantly clear. Yeah, my main takeaway from Macron's involvement is that he wants his name in headlines and he wants France recognized as a key diplomatic player. He's not Putin's guy by any means. France has suffered substantial damage to its prestige during the course of his conflict; for example, its intelligence agencies were totally incorrect about Russia's intentions and they bet their credibility on the war not happening at all. Since then Macron has tried to play the part of a key negotiator time and time again even when it's clear there is no meaningful role for him.
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 08:32
|
|
|
Mr. Sunshine posted:The idea that the sanctions will prove too painful or uncomfortable for regular europeans has absolutely no basis in reality. Apart from gas and oil Russia has almost nothing that Europe needs, and gas and oil can be found elsewhere with less bullshit attached. Even if european military support for Ukraine drops off, the sanctions are going nowhere. Just look at Iran, Cuba, North Korea. Once these sanctions have been in place a few years there's virtually no further cost in just keeping them in place indefinitely, and the average european won't even notice they're there. The problem is that every single facet of modern industry, agriculture, commerce, and municipal life runs on gas and oil. In the absence of cheap fossil fuels, modern life ceases. Russia's actions can substantially impact the market rate prices for gas and oil for Europeans. Comparing this to e.g. Cuba is bonkers, Cuba is not the primary source of gas or any other key resource for Europe or America. It is true that in a few years these things may mean a lot less after new infrastructure is built, but as of 2022, Europe is extraordinarily reliant on Russian gas and there is no easy way around that. The average European is staring down the very real prospect of unprecedented inflation and winter heating costs, or even rationing.
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 08:38
|
|
|
Charliegrs posted:Re: North Korean artillery shells. They're just artillery shells. As long as they don't go boom before they land that's good enough for Russia. We aren't talking about high tech GPS guided precision munitions here these shells are what, a casing, explosive and a detonator? NK has probably produced an absolute fuckload of them over the decades and they probably work just fine especially considering they are just copies of Russian ammunition. Yeah there might be a few comedy mishaps where they blow up an arty gun like a banana but that would probably have more to do with the barrel itself being overused rather than the ammo. They may in fact even be in better condition than a lot of Russian inventory because NK has stayed the same all this time. Despite famines the army has remained funded all the time, they haven't seen a total collapse and withdrawal from their garrisons in Germany.
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 09:18
|
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:The problem is that every single facet of modern industry, agriculture, commerce, and municipal life runs on gas and oil. In the absence of cheap fossil fuels, modern life ceases. Russia's actions can substantially impact the market rate prices for gas and oil for Europeans. Comparing this to e.g. Cuba is bonkers, Cuba is not the primary source of gas or any other key resource for Europe or America. It is true that in a few years these things may mean a lot less after new infrastructure is built, but as of 2022, Europe is extraordinarily reliant on Russian gas and there is no easy way around that. I mean, yeah, Russia will always be able to sell their fossil fuels to somebody. But ball bearings and circuit boards ain't coming back, even if some german Oma has to put on an extra sweater this winter.
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 09:22
|
|
|
North Korean army is an organised crime syndicate, no reason to assume they have their poo poo more together than any other dictator's army with a maintained facade and a hollowed out interior. That being said, North Korea is a major army exporter, but if Russia is buying their old stock, that may be a different story.
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 09:24
|
|
|
Mr. Sunshine posted:The idea that the sanctions will prove too painful or uncomfortable for regular europeans has absolutely no basis in reality. Apart from gas and oil Russia has almost nothing that Europe needs, and gas and oil can be found elsewhere with less bullshit attached. Even if european military support for Ukraine drops off, the sanctions are going nowhere. Just look at Iran, Cuba, North Korea. Once these sanctions have been in place a few years there's virtually no further cost in just keeping them in place indefinitely, and the average european won't even notice they're there. Most of Europe is still a liberal democracy that believes in a free market, and that market is being put under a lot of pressure by the huge increase in natural gas and electricity costs. Countries that have elections this fall/winter or next year are going to see an increase in power for populists that may be more pro-Russian than the current politicians. I don't think it's going to affect the war in Ukraine anytime soon, but it is a factor to consider.
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 09:42
|
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:The average European is staring down the very real prospect of unprecedented inflation and winter heating costs, or even rationing. Inflation was happening well before the war in Ukraine happened, so I'm not sure how much of that you can attribute to Russia as compared to super loose monetary policy for years. I have heard people talk about Russia, and I have heard people talk about inflation, but so far I have yet to hear them together in the same sentence. Even for car gasoline prices, those were skyrocketing prior to the Ukraine war -- and even now they've settled at basically the same price as everything was in 2019, before gasoline became mega-cheap over COVID. For winter heating costs, yeah it looks like those will go up in October by about 50-100% for residential users, although probably with some caps or subsidies based on income or even a subsidy or cap for everyone (UK style). Electricity costs look like they might go up 20-50% for residential users, but there's a ton of variability there. My electricity bill is $25/month and my heating bill, amortized annually, is something like $120/month. So I'm looking at a loss of like $800-1500/yr if I don't take any measures at all to mitigate this. Also we've been getting $80 per taxpayer since July to offset increases in energy prices which... at least for our usage, will more than 100% offset the projected increases. I expect most of Western Europe will roll out similar policies. Maybe in E Europe it will get tough, since there someone having $500 less or $500 more annually is actually a substantial amount of their budget and the government isn't as flush, but in France or Germany or the UK, these issues seem as hypothetical as people who thought the economy would collapse and we'd be fighting over scrap metal due to COVID shutdowns and subsequent job losses, which never really happened. For the small minority of French and Germans for whom $500/yr is a huge burden, I am also pretty sure there will be additional social safety nets to help them out. I'll toxx myself for this post if any country west of the iron curtain does domestic gas rationing this winter, but I guess maybe that could happen in eastern European countries that were 100% reliant on Russian gas. Saladman fucked around with this message at 12:12 on Sep 6, 2022 |
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 12:10
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/TarasBerezovets/status/1567108524362039297?t=BscJYCELUylbZWAUt6Xt3g&s=19 Heard from Kharkhiv friends who have family in temporary occupied parts of the region that things are moving in postive direction also, hopefully they succeed. fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 12:32 on Sep 6, 2022 |
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 12:28
|
|
|
Saladman posted:Inflation was happening well before the war in Ukraine happened, so I'm not sure how much of that you can attribute to Russia as compared to super loose monetary policy for years. I have heard people talk about Russia, and I have heard people talk about inflation, but so far I have yet to hear them together in the same sentence. Even for car gasoline prices, those were skyrocketing prior to the Ukraine war -- and even now they've settled at basically the same price as everything was in 2019, before gasoline became mega-cheap over COVID. But yeah there are all sorts of subsidies to offset the increases, I think my parents will be heating for free this year for example. So realistically nobody's going to freeze or go bankrupt, but it gives the right-wingers some ammo to rile up people.
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 12:32
|
|
|
Did Germany change their mind about shutting down the nuclear plants or is that still on the books
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 12:45
|
|
|
Alan Smithee posted:Did Germany change their mind about shutting down the nuclear plants or is that still on the books Last report I've seen was they would keep 2 out of 3 workable in reserve, but I've seen a lot of contradictory things before that.
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 12:51
|
|
|
Alan Smithee posted:Did Germany change their mind about shutting down the nuclear plants or is that still on the books they postponed the closure of two of their three remaining NPPs. Though they are still scheduled to be shutdown next year. quote:BERLIN—Germany will keep two of its three remaining nuclear-power plants online past their December shutdown deadline in an effort to buttress its power supply after Russia halted gas flows, the government said Monday.
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 12:53
|
|
|
Saladman posted:Inflation was happening well before the war in Ukraine happened, so I'm not sure how much of that you can attribute to Russia as compared to super loose monetary policy for years. I have heard people talk about Russia, and I have heard people talk about inflation, but so far I have yet to hear them together in the same sentence. Even for car gasoline prices, those were skyrocketing prior to the Ukraine war -- and even now they've settled at basically the same price as everything was in 2019, before gasoline became mega-cheap over COVID. This does not reflect my experience as a European at all. I think every single news piece I've seen about inflation talks about Ukraine in the same breath, and the two concepts are intrinsically linked in the mind of the average punter. I think generally it's understood that Russian gas is only one part of the inflation problem though since people were feeling the pinch before the war started. I also don't share your optimism that these price increases will be easily shouldered by those with lower or no incomes, though obviously this is dependent on individual government policy (here in Ireland we've yet to see anything concrete coming from the government ahead of the annual Budget in a few weeks). I also think you may come to regret that toxx, though I hope for all our sakes you're correct E: though I also agree with this below post vvvvv. The poor can suffer badly without Europe getting derailed Failed Imagineer fucked around with this message at 13:10 on Sep 6, 2022 |
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 13:02
|
|
|
The inflation wave we've been feeling for the past few months was 90% Covid hangover - a lot of money was spent to keep the lights on whilst a lot of workers were sent home in isolation. Money up whilst goods and services being produced down = inflation. The USA has already gotten this under control and is back to business as usual or better. The energy shock connected to the war is more recent and is dragging the inflationary tail out longer in places that are more dependent on energy imports like Europe. It's a pain, but the hyperventilation about bringing Europe to it's knees is silly. The most severe energy shock Russia could dream up (with years of foreplanning - they were slow running the gas last year to try to empty storage to weaken the EU as much as possible) combined with a slow and painful recovery from the Covid recession has bought transient regional double digit inflation. And that's the worst damage they can do, their ammunition is now spent. Turns out their silver bullet was a wet fart.
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 13:07
|
|
|
Atreiden posted:they postponed the closure of two of their three remaining NPPs. Though they are still scheduled to be shutdown next year. The two plants will be taken off the grid but stay manned and be an emergency reserve for specific scenarios. This will go on until April 2023.
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 13:07
|
|
|
GABA ghoul posted:The two plants will be taken off the grid but stay manned and be an emergency reserve for specific scenarios. This will go on until April 2023. So they're still insisting on doing dumbest possible thing, keeping nuclear plants operational but not generating?
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 13:13
|
|
|
The spike in gas prices began in 2021. It was reported by journalists at the time, and ascribed to an increase in demand from China alongside an unexplained drop in gas supplies to Europe from Russia. The start of 2021 was when Russia first began to move troops into position for its invasion of Ukraine. It's now said that part of the way Russia was preparing the ground for its invasion was to run down gas storage in Europe, and hike prices. It's fair to say that Russia's actions have caused many of the instances of price inflation that we've seen, though obviously not all. We can't blame Russia for the international inflation in property prices. The brief inflation of certain types of construction timber in Europe during 2021 was also not because of Russia, although the spike in birch plywood prices in certain countries in 2022 now is. Removing the sanctions on Russia might bring birch plywood prices down, but it won't solve the inflation caused by elevated gas & oil prices. They can never be trusted as an energy partner ever again, and I'd speculate even their remaining "partners" realise at any point they could be next. People use gas in all sorts of interesting ways, which leads to all sorts of interesting results when prices rise. The price of cherry tomatoes and salt have leapt up in some countries as production there relies heavily on either natural gas or the byproducts of its use. Aertuun fucked around with this message at 14:19 on Sep 6, 2022 |
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 14:16
|
|
|
https://mobile.twitter.com/jacklosh/status/1566803557570977792 IIRC they also hit the WCK facility in nearby Kramatorsk a few days ago, but I can't find confirmation.
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 14:22
|
|
|
Russia apparently looking to bolster artillery and missile supplies by buying from North Korea according to US intel. https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1567069236597587969?t=3Hioz5pkGztw7oLLqMvfTAIntel. NY times broke the story but of course it's paywalled. Any other news site though currently has the same info. Grain of salt etc
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 14:24
|
|
|
The west in general and I think Europe in particular is currently suffering high fuel and electricity prices, and they're probably stay high or get even higher. I think the big issue here is, will the average European link this with support for Ukraine, and will they be ready to vote for a party that wants to end sanctions over it? I don't think so. Any goodwill Russia had in Europe has absolutely been wiped out. Speaking of Sweden, the general attitude among people here seems to be that yeah, gas and power is expensive as gently caress and the global economy will probably poo poo the bed soon so keep an eye on your finances and also Russia can gently caress right off. There are Ukrainian flags flying outside the local city hall. Every single party in parliament is pro-Ukraine, even the "we're not racist we're nationalist" rightwing assholes. There's elections coming up, and anyone who started talking about easing sanctions on Russia would be absolutely hosed.
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 14:29
|
|
|
I recall a North Korean propaganda video a decade or so ago where the vibrant and virile DPRK soldiers were charging and firing their automatic weapons past the camera. The sound was dubbed but you could visibly see misfires happening constantly. And that was a video that was supposed to make them look good. Not sure what the QC differential is on artillery vs regular bullets, but if I was Vanya Artilleryman I'd maybe add a few meters to the pull cord for the big gun.
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 15:55
|
|
|
OddObserver posted:[url]https://mobile.twitter.com/jacklosh/status/1566803557570977792[url] https://twitter.com/chefjoseandres/status/1566133367589851136
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 15:56
|
|
|
One Polish dude that crowdfunds and delivers basic help stuff to near the frontline mentioned he was shelled during the drop and while GTFO back. He mentioned the pot shots on the road were without observers, but still gave him fright. Likely one of the locals has sent the info back to RU side and they wanted to kill the "dastardly western psyop operative". Or someone just assumed it's military supplies drop and took a couple shots. My money is on the first one.
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 16:02
|
|
|
Some divining of what the announcement might be later: https://twitter.com/NikaMelkozerova/status/1567147520727326720?s=20&t=zKDj4PcLB_WICzhrMHp2Ow
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 16:09
|
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:France has suffered substantial damage to its prestige during the course of his conflict; for example, its intelligence agencies were totally incorrect about Russia's intentions and they bet their credibility on the war not happening at all. To be fair, the reason they were wrong about the war is that they correctly assessed how much of a catastrophe invading would be for Russia and then (incorrectly, as it turned out) assumed that the Russians would know this as well.
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 16:10
|
|
|
Missing Name posted:NY times broke the story but of course it's paywalled. Any other news site though currently has the same info. Shes Not Impressed posted:https://twitter.com/Leshchenkos/status/1567155056532676609?s=20&t=OEVeQkTgaioWPMkOluYNUQ Mr. Apollo fucked around with this message at 16:18 on Sep 6, 2022 |
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 16:13
|
|
|
Mr. Apollo posted:Today is Zelensky's wedding anniversary. "Happy anniversary honey! I got you Kherson!"
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 16:27
|
|
|
Highly ironic if Russia got Brusilov’d, except this time Evert and Kuropatkin did their job too.
Tenchrono fucked around with this message at 16:32 on Sep 6, 2022 |
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 16:30
|
|
|
Mr. Apollo posted:I posted the full article on the previous page. If this is how he celebrates his wedding anniversary, I wonder what he'll get for christmas. From what I recall Kharkiv wasn't at risk though? I mean, it's close enough to the border to get shelled but I didn't realize the russians had infested the area around it again.
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 16:31
|
|
|
Freudian slippers posted:To be fair, the reason they were wrong about the war is that they correctly assessed how much of a catastrophe invading would be for Russia and then (incorrectly, as it turned out) assumed that the Russians would know this as well. Even Ukraine was halfway into not believing Russia would do it for the same reason. We really had to convince them to take it seriously. I think I read somewhere that most intelligence services looked at it with a blend of data and analysis, where the data (including what little communication we could intercept) all showed Russia seemed to be definitely preparing for war, but the analysis would have led you to think "no way, they aren't even close to being capable of pulling this off, it has got to be just sabre-rattling again". Some nations were conflicted, while France leaned more into the "no way, it doesn't make sense" analysis. It was basically only the USA and UK (well, and the Baltic states who always believe Russia is about to invade) who disregarded that analysis, just took the data at face value, and thought "maybe they aren't prepared and it doesn't make a lot of sense, but we aren't second-guessing this, we will just choose to believe that they really are doing what they are preparing and saying amongst themselves that they are going to do"
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 16:32
|
|
|
Shes Not Impressed posted:Some divining of what the announcement might be later: Hey nice, the "Kyiv was a feint" people will get to see what an actual feint looks like!
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 16:34
|
|
|
OAquinas posted:If this is how he celebrates his wedding anniversary, I wonder what he'll get for christmas. They're talking about Kharkiv oblast, not the city itself. In particular Balakliya is on the front NW of Izyum; Ukraine had made quite a bit of headway in that direction after Russia pulled back but got pushed back a bit as part of the flank of the Luhansk offensive.
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 16:45
|
|
|
OAquinas posted:If this is how he celebrates his wedding anniversary, I wonder what he'll get for christmas. Its the Kharkiv oblast (which would be kind of like saying new york state, not new york city). Balakalia is southeast of Kharkiv and right at Russian control somewhere in the north.
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 16:46
|
|
|
Enjoy posted:Hey nice, the "Kyiv was a feint" people will get to see what an actual feint looks like!
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 16:48
|
|
|
The Russians forgot about maskirovka?
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 16:51
|
|
|
Mr. Apollo posted:Isn't this the second time the Ukrainians have done something like this? I recall an attack from a month or so ago where Ukrainian had spent a couple of weeks talking about how they were going to liberate an area and even began moving equipment in only to attack and liberate a completely different area. They are making serious progress in the south. Its not a feint. I'm impressed if they can carry out 2 counteroffensives at once. Just managing one isnt easy. Have they trained up that many reserves to be able to do this?
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 16:54
|
|
|
Balakalia was captured by the Russians?
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 17:00
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 12, 2024 21:27 |
|
|
mobby_6kl posted:So they're still insisting on doing dumbest possible thing, keeping nuclear plants operational but not generating? I think the quiet part is that it's politically much easier to put them back online when there is an immediate electricity supply crisis, than before it's reality. Nuclear power is still a massive poison pill in Germany, the politicians want to be forced into it instead of choosing it.
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2022 17:02
|
|
