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Rust Martialis posted:Pushing the RUAF out of Kherson would close the door on threats to Melitopol and Odesa, and allow significant Ukranian forces to move to Donbass, for starters. It also puts those retreating Russian forces back into Donbas if they aren’t attritioned away beforehand. It’s been observed before (this summer) that the Russian supply situation and capability may be best in Donbas. At the very least, the equipment Ukraine captured in the current thrust can be used or used for stair parts. Armchair general blah blah blah.
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Sep 9, 2022 07:20
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Dreissi posted:At the very least, the equipment Ukraine captured in the current thrust can be used or used for stair parts. I hope the Ukrainians use them to fix their vehicles for now at least. They can use them for stairs later.
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Sep 9, 2022 07:33
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Dreissi posted:It also puts those retreating Russian forces back into Donbas if they aren’t attritioned away beforehand. It’s been observed before (this summer) that the Russian supply situation and capability may be best in Donbas. Yeah but with no intact bridges, the withdrawing troops will be under regular shelling as they cross the Dnepr, and they'll be leaving a chunk of the heavy materiel behind. How many tanks and SPGs does the RUAF have in Kherson with no road connection back across the river? The closer the AFU get to the river, the more eyes and tubes they can point at crossing points.
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Sep 9, 2022 07:39
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I am more curious as in how the Russian government will portray these current losses, and especially if they lose Kherson, to the Russian people.
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Sep 9, 2022 07:56
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:I hope the Ukrainians use them to fix their vehicles for now at least. They can use them for stairs later. No vehicles only stairs.
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Sep 9, 2022 08:07
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Dick Ripple posted:I am more curious as in how the Russian government will portray these current losses, and especially if they lose Kherson, to the Russian people. I'm honestly not. We've seen before how they more or less ignore losses or explain them away. Fairly sure even losing all or most of their gains and upwards of 50k troops wouldn't even faze them. They've been helping hush up their state's failures for decades now, after all.
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Sep 9, 2022 08:10
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Dick Ripple posted:I am more curious as in how the Russian government will portray these current losses, and especially if they lose Kherson, to the Russian people. With a police truncheon to their heads, probably.
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Sep 9, 2022 08:12
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Maybe for the populace at large. But as we are seeing with these Telegram posts there seem to be a good plenty of Russians keeping close eyes on what is going on and giving their opinions. Unfortunately the prevailing opinion also seems to be that they need to take the kid gloves off... Besides the realities of if or how the Russians can do that, Putin and his regime cannot keep sitting on their asses as the Ukrainians keep pushing them back.
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Sep 9, 2022 08:16
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Dick Ripple posted:I am more curious as in how the Russian government will portray these current losses, and especially if they lose Kherson, to the Russian people. 0 losses since 24 February, comrade, keep spreading the good news or else
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Sep 9, 2022 08:43
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https://twitter.com/VolodyaTretyak/status/1567983573172363264 Looks like LNR troops are not enjoying the situation that they are in. I laughed when they demanded military prosecutors from Moscow should be sent to resolve their problems.
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Sep 9, 2022 08:50
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Dick Ripple posted:I am more curious as in how the Russian government will portray these current losses, and especially if they lose Kherson, to the Russian people. Withdrew from Kherson as a show of good faith
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Sep 9, 2022 08:54
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Dick Ripple posted:Maybe for the populace at large. But as we are seeing with these Telegram posts there seem to be a good plenty of Russians keeping close eyes on what is going on and giving their opinions. Unfortunately the prevailing opinion also seems to be that they need to take the kid gloves off... Besides the realities of if or how the Russians can do that, Putin and his regime cannot keep sitting on their asses as the Ukrainians keep pushing them back. I think there's a caveat there that while a lot of Russian nationalist sentiment will be 'we must fight harder', the way you code dissent in Russia without risking yourself is to say "things are bad for reasons that are nobody's fault and also I'm totally sure the government has everything under control and if we only support the regime harder things will get better". You can ignore much of the message after 'things are bad' because it's performative.
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Sep 9, 2022 08:56
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Looking at even the more conservative war maps this morning, Izium is suddenly starting to look very exposed if there are enough Ukrainian forces to take a beeline southwards.
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Sep 9, 2022 09:35
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There are now Ukrainian reports that Russian soldiers have been abandoning their uniforms and switching to civilian attire to try to sneak back to Russia. The witnesses mentioned 15 cases in one day so it's not large scale, but makes you wonder how well they are going to succeed... I'm sure that groups of service age civilian males travelling through the area won't attract the attention of either Russian or Ukrainian military or partisans.
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Sep 9, 2022 09:38
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lilljonas posted:Looking at even the more conservative war maps this morning, Izium is suddenly starting to look very exposed if there are enough Ukrainian forces to take a beeline southwards. They don't even need to. If the Ukrainians take Kupiansk then all the Russian supply for that area is dependent on two bridges over a major river (sound familiar?).
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Sep 9, 2022 09:40
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Alchenar posted:They don't even need to. If the Ukrainians take Kupiansk then all the Russian supply for that area is dependent on two bridges over a major river (sound familiar?). Yeah, in many ways Kherson and Kharkiv offensives both have seemingly pursued important supply routes as the first strike opportunity, but that doesn’t really help us with figuring out what’s the step 2 of either of these plans, and if they share similarities. Of course, the end goal is to liberate their home from Russian occupation, but that doesn’t make for a constructive conversation on interpreting movements of the past week, or anticipating those of the next. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 10:18 on Sep 9, 2022 |
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Sep 9, 2022 09:57
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Only having Russian sources to go on and it still being a story of total domination by Ukraine is one hell of a thing https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1568170459400634368
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Sep 9, 2022 10:36
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 https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1568026431028097024
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Sep 9, 2022 10:38
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looks like the UAF have continued exploiting their gains https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1568182047838986242
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Sep 9, 2022 11:26
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https://twitter.com/neilphauer/status/1568168891662192640 Paracausal posted:looks like the UAF have continued exploiting their gains This is the money shot town. Let’s see if they can retake and hold it, or at least wreck the logistics infrastructure of RuAF. 
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Sep 9, 2022 11:36
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cinci zoo sniper posted:
We will be tired of winning!
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Sep 9, 2022 11:41
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From a very clueless armchair general pov, this looks like russian forces were basically incredibly stretched out to claim as much land as possible without any thought put into how that border was supposed to hold against a Ukrainian offensive. And this might have been further exacerbated by the Kherson engagements provoking some redeployment of troops, as well as the panic Crimean air assets relocation programme. At any rate, that looks incredibly well timed and executed by Ukraine, fingers crossed.
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Sep 9, 2022 12:03
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/neilphauer/status/1568168891662192640 Ukraine soldiers look pretty relaxed. I'd guess there's not a lot of resistance active.
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Sep 9, 2022 12:13
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FishMcCool posted:From a very clueless armchair general pov, this looks like russian forces were basically incredibly stretched out to claim as much land as possible without any thought put into how that border was supposed to hold against a Ukrainian offensive. And this might have been further exacerbated by the Kherson engagements provoking some redeployment of troops, as well as the panic Crimean air assets relocation programme. At any rate, that looks incredibly well timed and executed by Ukraine, fingers crossed. CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:Ukraine soldiers look pretty relaxed. I'd guess there's not a lot of resistance active. That’s seems to be the case so far, that they hit an unusually weak area with a force of elevated concentration - though they also are undoubtedly in simply good spirits at the moment. Russian commentators seem to be talking about Izyum reinforcements of sorts redeploying to Kupyansk, and the touted 3rd Army Corps being dispatched to reinforce it as well. While I would expect them to be retaliating against the Ukrainian spearhead, at the moment I’m struggling to tell apart copium from meaningful information. In any case, it shouldn’t take more than 2-3 days for even the Belgorod garrison to reach the area, if there’s nothing else closer, so I would expect to hear of considerably intensified combat by Sunday the latest.
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Sep 9, 2022 12:23
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FishMcCool posted:From a very clueless armchair general pov, this looks like russian forces were basically incredibly stretched out to claim as much land as possible without any thought put into how that border was supposed to hold against a Ukrainian offensive. And this might have been further exacerbated by the Kherson engagements provoking some redeployment of troops, as well as the panic Crimean air assets relocation programme. At any rate, that looks incredibly well timed and executed by Ukraine, fingers crossed. From what I've read on the breakthrough, it's pretty much this. Russia has had to cover a lot of border with a decreasing amount of troops, especially after massing troops for the struggle in Donbas and then massing troops in Kherson to defend that territory. This seems to have meant that more and more parts of the border were left for second tier troops (SOBR which are basically SWAT police guys and Luhansk/Donetsk draftees in this case where the breakthrough happened). At some point, Ukraine just needed to find one of those gradually weakening holes in the line, and punch REALLY hard, and the breakthrough was complete. Basically, you can't both do grinding month-long assaults, mass reserves in several areas, AND defend a long extended border at the same time. Especially without drafting a lot of more troops when you're bleeding manpower. lilljonas fucked around with this message at 12:28 on Sep 9, 2022 |
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Sep 9, 2022 12:25
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FishMcCool posted:From a very clueless armchair general pov, this looks like russian forces were basically incredibly stretched out to claim as much land as possible without any thought put into how that border was supposed to hold against a Ukrainian offensive. And this might have been further exacerbated by the Kherson engagements provoking some redeployment of troops, as well as the panic Crimean air assets relocation programme. At any rate, that looks incredibly well timed and executed by Ukraine, fingers crossed. Ukrainians had 6 months to mobilize for total war and now have 700,000 men under arms and the Russians at the beginning had 190,000 in Ukraine at most and it's been downhill since then. It was only a matter of time. Training and western arms would eventually mean the disparity in numbers between the two sides would be untenable. And that's where we are today.
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Sep 9, 2022 12:31
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Charlz Guybon posted:Ukrainians had 6 months to mobilize for total war and now have 700,000 men under arms and the Russians at the beginning had 190,000 in Ukraine at most and it's been downhill since then. It was only a matter of time. Training and western arms would eventually mean the disparity in numbers between the two sides would be untenable. And that's where we are today. I'm not sure they quite have 700,000 men quite yet. And there's still really not ennough in the way of armor and artillery, even with Western aid, to enable all those hundreds of thousands to be constitute a force fuly capable of a wide offensive. But they are capable of this, and with those numbers they can actually put together a decent defensive front line with rear area reserves in a way the Russians likely just can't.
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Sep 9, 2022 12:42
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Randarkman posted:I'm not sure they quite have 700,000 men quite yet. And there's still really not ennough in the way of armor and artillery, even with Western aid, to enable all those hundreds of thousands to be constitute a force fuly capable of a wide offensive. But they are capable of this, and with those numbers they can actually put together a decent defensive front line with rear area reserves in a way the Russians likely just can't. They seem to be capturing a lot of equipment including some rather large SPGs so at least Russia remains a reliable and helpful donor.
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Sep 9, 2022 12:52
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https://ria.ru/20220909/kupyansk-1815632361.html That's a big ton shift, official Russian press acknowledging things are difficult in Kupyansk. Basically the first acknowledgement that things aren't going to plan.
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Sep 9, 2022 12:56
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Dick Ripple posted:I am more curious as in how the Russian government will portray these current losses, and especially if they lose Kherson, to the Russian people. It's just a FEINT, BRO!!! (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 9, 2022 13:04
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Randarkman posted:I'm not sure they quite have 700,000 men quite yet. And there's still really not ennough in the way of armor and artillery, even with Western aid, to enable all those hundreds of thousands to be constitute a force fuly capable of a wide offensive. But they are capable of this, and with those numbers they can actually put together a decent defensive front line with rear area reserves in a way the Russians likely just can't. I would be entirely surprised if the nominal headcount would confirm the 700k announcement made some time ago, but that is just a number of people alive. It doesn’t inform us of their health situation, level of training, depth of combat experience, the concentration of their deployments, or the equipment made available to them. If I had to make guess, Ukrainian forces have significantly outnumbered Russian forces for months already, but the situation with equipment remains fragile. FishBulbia posted:https://ria.ru/20220909/kupyansk-1815632361.html Uh, “the situation in region is difficult, non-trivial… the city is sufficiently safe” is not the strongest statement in Russian PR speak.
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Sep 9, 2022 13:05
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Dick Ripple posted:Maybe for the populace at large. But as we are seeing with these Telegram posts there seem to be a good plenty of Russians keeping close eyes on what is going on and giving their opinions. Unfortunately the prevailing opinion also seems to be that they need to take the kid gloves off... Besides the realities of if or how the Russians can do that, Putin and his regime cannot keep sitting on their asses as the Ukrainians keep pushing them back. This isn't directed at you at all but it's just nuts to me how 6+ months into this thing there are still people who think that any day now Russia's going to start actually taking this thing seriously, issue a general mobilization, and then the Ukrainians will be sorry they pushed poor Mother Russia to that point.
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Sep 9, 2022 13:06
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Cantorsdust posted:I'll be honest and say that I don't see why the Kharkiv offensive overall would be a more important push than the one on Kherson. Kherson lets you threaten Crimea, it lets you threaten southeastern Ukraine. The offensive around Kharkiv lets you make local advances around Kharkiv, but I don't see how it builds to a more strategic objective. Am I missing something? Some folk have given great analysis but if Russia can't defend two places at once, Ukraine can continue to take the fight to the north and then shift south to Donbass. Which then if they want to defend, they have to take soldiers from the south. If you can fight on one front, and your enemy can fight on two, you're going to lose to attrition at some point.
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Sep 9, 2022 13:15
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https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1568210289190998017 Looks like the Ghost of Kyiv is back in town.
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Sep 9, 2022 13:19
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That turn south! https://mobile.twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1568212241471737856
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Sep 9, 2022 13:31
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1568210289190998017 It's fake news. But a decent computer generated at first glance.
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Sep 9, 2022 13:35
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1568210289190998017 lol I love these CGI troll videos - not quite HIMARS in an inflatable dingy by the Crimea bridge but it's up there.
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Sep 9, 2022 13:37
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Nelson Mandingo posted:It's fake news. But a decent computer generated at first glance. I plead mercy, Mr. Joke Explainer.
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Sep 9, 2022 13:37
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Nelson Mandingo posted:It's fake news. But a decent computer generated at first glance. are you suggesting the ghost of kyiv isn't real??????
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