|
Yanks in Izyum https://twitter.com/TarmoJuntunen/status/1569070539649552385
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 02:45
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 6, 2024 02:56 |
|
|
Marshal Prolapse posted:I love my Ukrainian Rammstein Covers Soccer mom: *kisses troops* "have fun at war honey!"
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 02:51
|
|
|
Alan Smithee posted:Soccer mom: *kisses troops* "have fun at war honey!" They love and happiness I’ve been seeing from liberated Ukrainians is wonderful. It’s weird to say, but I’m finding some of my faith in humanity being restored, even though it comes from war. Better it never happened, but that’s Russia’s fault and they will pay for it by becoming a third world country and a humiliated one. https://twitter.com/mfa_ukraine/status/1568984189520990208?s=46&t=Jt5mZbJWFjKRLYZkx01zCQ Is it dusty in here?
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 03:01
|
|
|
Marshal Prolapse posted:Well reality for some, doubling down on delusion for others. The D&D thread and it’s Russian-speakers have long noted that Russian state TV tends to trot out “reasonable” people on their talk shows whose purpose is pretty much to get shouted down while claiming to provide “fair and balanced” views because hey, they give the other viewpoint plenty of space to talk! This sort of thing where someone comes on to say “Yeah Russia is kinda in trouble” and everyone else yells them down has been going on a while on different subjects. I do like how later in the video the host goes “Well, there’s a lot of sabotage going on and people are saying we have two ways of pulling ourselves out of this hole, one is to be tougher on the occupied territories to stop them trying to do anything, the other is to be tougher and more punishing on the unoccupied territories to “sober them up,” which would you choose?” And the analyst he’s talking to rolls his eyes before responding “Neither. Neither will work.” Like those are the only two methods that come to mind?
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 03:08
|
|
|
Again, I don't see how, even in the event of a full pre-2014 border reclamation, Russia doesn't indefinitely conduct cruise and TBM strikes on Ukraine as well as turn the Black Sea into a mostly unrestricted submarine warfare zone, even though seeing/tutoring Ukraine in ASW would be interesting.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 03:18
|
|
|
Tomn posted:Like those are the only two methods that come to mind? When you look at Russian behavior…it appears that even their binary decision making is truly even binary. Just dumb and even more dumb. Also Russia looking to get its rear end kicked by Japan again. https://twitter.com/japanjointstaff/status/1569144120429670406?s=46&t=fqTNPFtHPsKkMnYqlK0A9Q I feel weird saying this, but I think the only thing that should come out of this is the disintegration of the Russian Federation into such a way that it won’t be able to threaten anyone again, lots of small republics, even if that means cutting the Chinese in on the Far East.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 03:23
|
|
|
BIG HEADLINE posted:Again, I don't see how, even in the event of a full pre-2014 border reclamation, Russia doesn't indefinitely conduct cruise and TBM strikes on Ukraine as well as turn the Black Sea into a mostly unrestricted submarine warfare zone, even though seeing/tutoring Ukraine in ASW would be interesting. They'd be cementing their status as an international pariah state over a war that, in that hypothetical, they had lost utterly. Such an unqualified defeat for Russia is one of the most plausible scenarios that leads to them agreeing to end the conflict under terms that Ukraine would accept. (for clarification, I am not suggesting that I think Ukraine pushing Russia all the way back to their 2014 borders is a likely outcome, happy as I would be to see it). Like, what, they're gonna endure international sanctions in perpetuity so they can throw an ineffectual tantrum?
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 03:29
|
|
|
BIG HEADLINE posted:turn the Black Sea into a mostly unrestricted submarine warfare zone, even though seeing/tutoring Ukraine in ASW would be interesting. I feel like there'd be a limit to how much of this goes on, given that submarines are big, complex, and expensive, that there aren't THAT many submarines floating around, and that Russia is in no shape to spool up wartime levels of submarine production. I don't feel like it'd take very long at all before they decide that spending expensive subs to harass Ukrainian shipping (while simultaneously pissing off anyone with an interest in shipping in the region) isn't remotely worth it - and even if they thought it'd was, they'd run out of subs eventually. Come to think of it, even just lobbing cruise missiles on the regular would be a pretty good way to ensure the sanctions are near-permanent to justify not giving Russia the complex electronics needed to replenish their cruise missile supply, and then I genuinely don't know if they actually COULD replenish their supply domestically. Marshal Prolapse posted:I feel weird saying this, but I think the only thing that should come out of this is the disintegration of the Russian Federation into such a way that it won’t be able to threaten anyone again, lots of small republics, even if that means cutting the Chinese in on the Far East. Gonna say that I'm honestly not sure if this is a great long-term outcome because if there's one thing the CCP is absolutely terrified of, it's China splintering or getting carved up into tiny little helpless spheres of influence, and even if they gain from it seeing the same thing happen to Russia would crank their paranoia meters past the breaking point. The absolute last thing anybody needs is China genuinely believing that any Western opposition is the prelude to the total emasculation of China and responding in kind.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 03:31
|
|
|
Voyager I posted:Like, what, they're gonna endure international sanctions in perpetuity so they can throw an ineffectual tantrum? Haven't they *already* been doing this in a lesser degree for well over a decade now?
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 03:40
|
|
|
Considering they’re now beholden to North loving Korea for ammunition supplies I’m pretty sure any possibility of the Russian Federation as it currently exists being a functional member of the international community is so far off the table that it’s fallen out of a window after shooting itself in the back of the head seven times.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 03:56
|
|
|
Tomn posted:I feel like there'd be a limit to how much of this goes on, given that submarines are big, complex, and expensive, that there aren't THAT many submarines floating around, and that Russia is in no shape to spool up wartime levels of submarine production. I had a whole effort post written up about why Russia's not going to launch cruise missiles at Ukraine from Submarines, but TL;DR it's way easier to do so with IRBMs in Russian territory, something Russia excels at.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 04:07
|
|
|
The problem with Russia being a pariah state with nothing to lose and sanctioned out the rear end is that I could see them selling "Anti-Imperialist Insurance." "Wanna get Uncle Sugar or the Great Satan off your back? Pay us 20% of your country's GDP in perpetuity and if the Yankee Pig Dogs come calling we'll go on high alert and threaten them with nuclear annihilation! We might even scramble nuclear-armed bombers! gently caress it, why not, right?!?! Call now and secure your 1% discount!" ...simply because I don't see them becoming the "Nuclear Walmart" given that everyone was  about North Korea doing that and they haven't...yet.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 04:11
|
|
|
Elviscat posted:I had a whole effort post written up about why Russia's not going to launch cruise missiles at Ukraine from Submarines, but TL;DR it's way easier to do so with IRBMs in Russian territory, something Russia excels at. Oh sorry, I was talking about two different things (which I assume the OP I was responding to was as well) - using submarines to conduct unrestricted submarine warfare against Ukrainian shipping, and lobbing cruise missiles from land at Ukraine.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 04:16
|
|
|
Tomn posted:Oh sorry, I was talking about two different things (which I assume the OP I was responding to was as well) - using submarines to conduct unrestricted submarine warfare against Ukrainian shipping, and lobbing cruise missiles from land at Ukraine. Where would these hypothetical submarines be based out of? Crimea?
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 04:18
|
|
|
A.o.D. posted:Where would these hypothetical submarines be based out of? Crimea? They’re based out of Sevastopol and they have been used as a cruise missile launching platforms.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 04:24
|
|
|
Marshal Prolapse posted:They’re based out of Sevastopol and they have been used as a cruise missile launching platforms. How much longer is that going to be a viable option?
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 04:26
|
|
|
BIG HEADLINE posted:The problem with Russia being a pariah state with nothing to lose and sanctioned out the rear end is that I could see them selling "Anti-Imperialist Insurance." But why would they do any of that when they could just end their invasion of Ukraine and rejoin the world economy, especially in a scenario where their invasion force had already been expelled and it's too late for them to even save face?
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 04:28
|
|
|
A.o.D. posted:How much longer is that going to be a viable option? Oh you meant after a withdrawal, my bad. To answer your question, hopefully not much longer.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 04:30
|
|
|
Tomn posted:Oh sorry, I was talking about two different things (which I assume the OP I was responding to was as well) - using submarines to conduct unrestricted submarine warfare against Ukrainian shipping, and lobbing cruise missiles from land at Ukraine. With how maritime shipping works, with flags of convenience and whatnot, that would be a great way to get NATO to start lobbing depth-charges at Russian submarines.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 04:35
|
|
|
Marshal Prolapse posted:They’re based out of Sevastopol and they have been used as a cruise missile launching platforms. So they're sunk a few weeks after this starts? Submarines need a lot of upkeep and supplies to keep operating. Also the Black Sea is very small and it wouldn't take a month to scrub it of threat with some dedicated ASW work. At that late point in this war we'd probably be giving ATACMS so UA could just destroy the port with IRBMs themselves.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 04:36
|
|
|
Russia doesn't have an unlimited supply of cruise missiles or the ability to replenish stocks to any relevant degree. Theyve repurposed S300s as make shift launchers at this point.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 04:37
|
|
|
I'm kinda shocked they didn't go hunting the subs after they sunk the Moskva, because sinking a sub is also a no-poo poo prestige military target, way over and above its actual military value.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 04:38
|
|
|
M_Gargantua posted:So they're sunk a few weeks after this starts? Submarines need a lot of upkeep and supplies to keep operating. Also the Black Sea is very small and it wouldn't take a month to scrub it of threat with some dedicated ASW work. At that late point in this war we'd probably be giving ATACMS so UA could just destroy the port with IRBMs themselves. I thought the post originally meant currently and not a post war period.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 04:46
|
|
|
GD_American posted:I'm kinda shocked they didn't go hunting the subs after they sunk the Moskva, because sinking a sub is also a no-poo poo prestige military target, way over and above its actual military value. With what? They don't have a survivable ASW platform to hunt them with.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 04:48
|
|
|
GD_American posted:I'm kinda shocked they didn't go hunting the subs after they sunk the Moskva, because sinking a sub is also a no-poo poo prestige military target, way over and above its actual military value. There is no Ukrainian Navy. Their only major surface combatant was an old Soviet frigate they scuttled back in the early days of the war. Even with their Neptunes and their creative use of MLRS for counter-surface fires they don't really have the capability to conduct ASW in the Black Sea. You're not wrong about the impact sinking a Kilo would have, but unless a NATO country really increases its support is just not in the cards. Well, at least at least it's not in the cards until they can get Sevastopol into Him ars or SRBM range and hit them in port.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 04:50
|
|
|
If the Ukranians liberate Crimea, and Russia still has a couple Kilos harassing them, I wouldn't bet against Ukraine managing to score a hit on one with a Bayraktar while it snorkels or something, just with how this war's gone.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 05:27
|
|
|
Elviscat posted:If the Ukranians liberate Crimea, and Russia still has a couple Kilos harassing them, I wouldn't bet against Ukraine managing to score a hit on one with a Bayraktar while it snorkels or something, just with how this war's gone. I think it's more likely they pull a Kursk and sink themselves based on the failure rate of the Kalibirs coming out of the tubes in all of the videos on Twitter.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 05:29
|
|
|
how many missiles do those things carry anyway
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 05:31
|
|
|
Tunicate posted:how many missiles do those things carry anyway Theoretically as many as 20-22 but no submarine commander is going to completely offload all of his sub's torpedoes. EDIT: Though as Elviscat posted below, tube-launching cruise missiles isn't ideal. BIG HEADLINE fucked around with this message at 06:33 on Sep 12, 2022 |
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 05:49
|
|
|
Some Kilos (SS) can carry up to 4, I'm unsure if that's tube-launched or they have a lovely pathetic little VLS cell. (Probably tube-launched) Akula's (SSN) are similar. Oscars (SSGN) (my favorite Russian submarine) can carry up to 28 Shipwrecks, which I'm pretty sure they can shove something that can do land-attack in those tubes. The Severodvinsk-class, the pride of the Russian fleet, and the only class that makes me sleep a little unesier at night can fire 32 Kalibers from Her VLS tubes. Tangent on launching missiles from submarines: tube-launching land-attack cruise missiles sucks, they're unreliable, it's an extremely slow process (1 or 2 at a time), you can only carry a few, and it leaves you with only a couple heavyweight torpedos, your main defense against other submarines and surface ships, loaded and ready, since you're using those heavyweight tubes to launch the missiles. VLS launched cruise missiles are the solution to that problem, they're always ready to go, and you can keep all your tubes loaded with defensive weapons in case someone hears you launch and comes over to say hi. Modern US submarines carry 12 Tomahawks in VLS cells, enough for a decent sized strike against enemy air defenses or whatnot. The first four US Navy Ohio-Class submarines carry a spine chilling and loving insane 154 of the things, they're the only dedicated land-attack class of submarine I know of. In general you want to launch cruise missiles from surface ships, because they have far better radar and comms abilities, and can usually launch from well outside the stand-off distance of any land based defence systems. Although with things like Ukraine's Poseidon missile proving that mobile, long-range effective anti-surface missiles are in the game now, I wonder if large missile-carrier subs will start to become a standard part of any Navy's arsenal. The USN is certainly looking to replace the lost capability of the Ohios when they get decommissioned in the next few years, with a stretch-limo version of the very capable and cheap as gently caress Virginia class SSGN.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 06:14
|
|
|
BIG HEADLINE posted:Theoretically as many as 20-22 but no submarine commander is going to completely offload all of his sub's torpedoes. We are talking about the navy where one of the captains sold the screws of his own ship for the scrap value during a refit.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 06:16
|
|
|
Wouldn't those subs eventually have to return to port to rearm and stock up on cigarettes? How would they do that if Ukraine controls the Black Sea and can restrict access to the Sea of Azov?
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 07:21
|
|
|
Tunicate posted:how many missiles do those things carry anyway Up to 18, if they're willing to sacrifice all their torps.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 07:21
|
|
|
First-person video of a MANPADS hit on a Russian Su-25: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOLMyxRgFOw Didn't look too damaging. It's lovely that this guy is Russian because the footage he's been putting up would be AvGeek catnip outside of current events.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 07:31
|
|
|
https://www.iswresearch.org/2022/09/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment_88.html?m=1quote:Occupation authorities may be fleeing from occupied Ukraine to Russia as Ukrainian forces advance towards Russian rear areas. Mariupol Mayoral Adviser Petro Andryushenko stated that Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin and DNR Mayor of Mariupol Konstantin Ivashchenko were supposed to attend a military parade in Mariupol on September 11 but did not and that their current whereabouts are unknown.[41] Ukrainian Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai stated that occupation authorities are fleeing from occupied territories, including those that Russian proxy authorities have held since 2014.[42] Ukrainian Mayor of Enerhodar Dmytro Orlov posted a screenshot of a Telegram post made by an unspecified occupation authority that called on civilian collaborators to leave occupied territories for Russia.[43]
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 07:35
|
|
|
Tomn posted:The D&D thread and it’s Russian-speakers have long noted that Russian state TV tends to trot out “reasonable” people on their talk shows whose purpose is pretty much to get shouted down while claiming to provide “fair and balanced” views because hey, they give the other viewpoint plenty of space to talk! This sort of thing where someone comes on to say “Yeah Russia is kinda in trouble” and everyone else yells them down has been going on a while on different subjects. Before the war they also loved to have paid actors to be Americans and Ukrainians in the studio that the more unhinged guests and the host could shout at or even kick out of the studio to create a viral moment. These days they set the rhythm between guests who drone out something that sounds analytical and maniacs who demand to nuke London. It helps to keep grandma's who watch those shows to stay awake.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 07:40
|
|
|
Elviscat posted:Some Kilos (SS) can carry up to 4, I'm unsure if that's tube-launched or they have a lovely pathetic little VLS cell. (Probably tube-launched) Yeah, I get the impression the four SSGNs are overworked because they stumbled upon the perfect combination of stealth, intelligence capability and raw firepower. The Virginias seem to be a mix of SSGN and Seawolf - all for less money per boat (this is A Good Thing). For comparison, a Tico-class cruiser has 122 VLS cells, which carry a mix of missiles (and inherently less Tomahawks). The SSGNs far as I'm aware carry nothing but cruise missiles, and 154 of those parked anywhere close to my coast and not knowing where they were would always be on my mind as a naval planner.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 07:59
|
|
|
Tomn posted:The D&D thread and it’s Russian-speakers have long noted that Russian state TV tends to trot out “reasonable” people on their talk shows whose purpose is pretty much to get shouted down while claiming to provide “fair and balanced” views because hey, they give the other viewpoint plenty of space to talk! This sort of thing where someone comes on to say “Yeah Russia is kinda in trouble” and everyone else yells them down has been going on a while on different subjects. Yeah the interesting thing is not so much what they are saying because it's all theatrics, but what the shows reveal about how the interface between the population and the regime propaganda machine is working. For example, none of them are even making a fig leaf of an attempt to defend the RMoD line that this was a planned retrograde operation. That's just for useful idiots in the West, they know nobody in Moscow is buying that.
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 08:07
|
|
|
Elviscat posted:I had a whole effort post written up about why Russia's not going to launch cruise missiles at Ukraine from Submarines, but TL;DR it's way easier to do so with IRBMs in Russian territory, something Russia excels at. Elviscat posted:Some Kilos (SS) can carry up to 4, I'm unsure if that's tube-launched or they have a lovely pathetic little VLS cell. (Probably tube-launched) https://news.usni.org/2022/07/15/russians-used-sub-launched-missiles-to-strike-vinnytsia-business-center https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-it-disables-ukrainian-railway-stations-used-transport-western-2022-05-04/ Not ideal, but apparently good enough for Russia (or at least to claim they did it).
|
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 08:35
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 6, 2024 02:56 |
|
|
ArmyGroup303 posted:Yeah, I get the impression the four SSGNs are overworked because they stumbled upon the perfect combination of stealth, intelligence capability and raw firepower. The Virginias seem to be a mix of SSGN and Seawolf - all for less money per boat (this is A Good Thing). The biggest problem with the GNs is they're coming up fast on their 50th birthdays and they're just old and broken and they don't have enough budget for repairs. I always love how a program to find a use for some old lovely unloved SSBNs turned into an what's turned into unique an unmatched capabilities. Virginia's are awesome, they're more capable than the old 688s, cheap and I think most importantly, super reliable and easy to maintain. I was on the original 774, and she was getting both long in the tooth, and too far from her last drydocking, and we still took her out to sea on time to the non-adjusted scheduled minute all but 1 time in my 5 years on board. I didn't realize that was insane until I left to work on the other classes of submarine. Sailors from other classes make fun of VAs by calling them the "Honda Civic" of submarines, and that's the best analogy I can come up with, although I don't see the negative connotation there. Kchama posted:https://news.usni.org/2022/07/15/russians-used-sub-launched-missiles-to-strike-vinnytsia-business-center I guess I failed to account for Russia's... unique prosecution of this war. I was kinda saying it's not a significant or long-term viable thing to do. Elviscat fucked around with this message at 08:50 on Sep 12, 2022 |
|
#
?
Sep 12, 2022 08:47
|
|