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Kchama posted:https://news.usni.org/2022/07/15/russians-used-sub-launched-missiles-to-strike-vinnytsia-business-center I'd caution everyone but China against taking anything Russia is doing as a best practice. China can feel free to take everything they're doing as a best practice.
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Sep 12, 2022 10:15
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psydude posted:I'd caution everyone but China against taking anything Russia is doing as a best practice. China can feel free to take everything they're doing as a best practice. Pretty sure China is drawing similar conclusions to other interested powers on how not to conduct an invasion. They'll probably not make the same mistakes as Russia when they eventually make a play for Taiwan. The PLAN is actually a pretty scary adversary even if the Chinese army makes dumb smashing bricks with foreheads videos, and they're probably something that Taiwan would have to worry about more than the army since they're an island and would receive basically "all the missiles" before the army got anywhere close. orange juche fucked around with this message at 10:35 on Sep 12, 2022 |
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Sep 12, 2022 10:33
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I was making a joke to point out how it would be great for China to sabotage itself. But I think Zero COVID and Xi's attempts at gaslighting the middle class Chinese into believing that they don't like nice things (via Xi Jinping thought) are, in part, a test to see whether or not he could sustain a war with Taiwan. Russia had similarly tightened the grip on its population over time to the point where dissent wasn't possible, and it looks like he's trying the same. The risk, as I see it, is that China is also trying to convince more middle class Chinese and university graduates to join the military. Putin's approach was to shield the middle class from exposure by feeding ethnic minorities into the meat grinder, but China doesn't want to take this approach. Any ruinous war with Taiwan and the US would probably cause backlash among more well-to-do Chinese (hence the attempts to reign in Jack Ma, etc.), who generally harbor no illusions about their government, but who have been content to live in the system so long as it's comfortable. e: Interestingly, Zero COVID has had the (perhaps) unintended effect of accelerating the decoupling of international business from China's economy, as a lot of companies have had it with the lockdowns and are looking to migrate parts of their production chain to other parts of S/SE Asia. I haven't seen any analysis yet arguing that this was one of its objectives, but I do wonder if part of the rationale behind continuing with Zero COVID is to test the resiliency of the Chinese economy (or at least the resiliency of its people) against Western sanctions. Their refusal to certify western vaccines, which are far more effective than their own, would suggest this to a degree. psydude fucked around with this message at 10:57 on Sep 12, 2022 |
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Sep 12, 2022 10:48
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https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1569169003758891010 Dreams isn't playing, but it's impossible not to hear it.
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Sep 12, 2022 11:35
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Elviscat posted:
Oh yeah I figured, it's just really funny you posting "You wouldn't do it cuz it's dumb" and Russia proudly declares "We did it!  "
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Sep 12, 2022 12:56
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BIG HEADLINE posted:Again, I don't see how, even in the event of a full pre-2014 border reclamation, Russia doesn't indefinitely conduct cruise and TBM strikes on Ukraine as well as turn the Black Sea into a mostly unrestricted submarine warfare zone, even though seeing/tutoring Ukraine in ASW would be interesting. There was a good essay published by Ukraine's ministry of defense that postulated that Rusdia's center of gravity is actually its ability to attack without reprisal. It was an interesting argument and I'm starting to think they may be right. The solution in the authors' view is for Ukraine to have long range missiles.
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Sep 12, 2022 13:37
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Playing the optimistic note, what happens when Ukraine finally has full territorial sovereignty restored? In that scenario Ukraine would have demonstrated enough military might to spank Russia and push them out of their country, but what happens on the restored borders? Russia gonna Russia, so I see them being dickheads about it constantly. Bombing/striking cities trying to rebuild, endless funding of destabilization agents and entities, constant border skirmishes. Even my optimist hopes turn out not too optimistic going down that line of thought.
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Sep 12, 2022 16:51
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bird food bathtub posted:Playing the optimistic note, what happens when Ukraine finally has full territorial sovereignty restored? Build a very large wall on the Russian border? (100% serious)
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Sep 12, 2022 16:54
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Tucker Carlson (with guest RT commentator): you see, Russia is actually winning, that's not blood in its mouth, it's victory wine https://twitter.com/MattGertz/status/1569321565531115523
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Sep 12, 2022 16:59
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bird food bathtub posted:Playing the optimistic note, what happens when Ukraine finally has full territorial sovereignty restored? Ukraine needs to get a buffer region between itself and russia, perhaps by acknowledging some breakaway republics on former russian soil.
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Sep 12, 2022 17:05
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bird food bathtub posted:Playing the optimistic note, what happens when Ukraine finally has full territorial sovereignty restored? I think the question that needs to be asked here is how enthusiastic the support will be when we shift from "I don't need a ride, I need ammo" to "I don't need ammo anymore, I need civil engineers and a fuckton of raw materials and resources to rebuild my country." Because historically (aside from the Marshall Plan) that's resulted in the parties being asked suddenly not making eye contact while whistling and walking away. I could see China getting very  over that.
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Sep 12, 2022 17:06
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BIG HEADLINE posted:I think the question that needs to be asked here is how enthusiastic the support will be when we shift from "I don't need a ride, I need ammo" to "I don't need ammo anymore, I need civil engineers and a fuckton of raw materials and resources to rebuild my country." Japan, Korea, and other nin-Marshal Plan countries are coubter-examoles to this broad assertion. I think the West will ultimately help Ukraine rebuild because it deters Russia.
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Sep 12, 2022 17:14
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bird food bathtub posted:Playing the optimistic note, what happens when Ukraine finally has full territorial sovereignty restored? I feel like one critical issue is that Ukraine can never be entirely sure that Russia won't try again at some point in the future, and that maybe the next attempt will be more competent - because even if they win this time, Russia is still a larger, richer country and they still have a long border. Even if they manage to completely kick the Russians out of contested territory, that's not gonna change the fundamental economic calculus behind both countries, and another war and victory like this is probably not an acceptable cost to the country. So the most important question on the minds of the Ukrainians is going to be "How do we stop this happening ever again?" and while hypermilitarizing the country is a possibility, I feel like the only real answer is a firm defense guarantee from the West, preferably full membership to NATO but anything that confronts Russia with the possibility of facing Ukrainian allies in battle could serve the purpose. How easy it would be to get such guarantees...eh, that's the tricky bit, especially NATO membership.
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Sep 12, 2022 17:27
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Ukraine has fossil fuels and large industrial sector in need of rebuilding that the EU would very like to integrate and you will probably see a bunch of money and help sent for this goal.
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Sep 12, 2022 17:39
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Ukraine needs nukes.
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Sep 12, 2022 17:42
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Tunicate posted:Ukraine needs to get a buffer region between itself and russia, perhaps by acknowledging some breakaway republics on former russian soil. Belgorod. Although everyone keeps referring to it jokingly as West North Korea. Probably would require a DMZ along the whole border to be honest. On the plus side I doubt Belarus will be a long term worry, cause Luka is going to be hosed when all those hardened volunteers come home.
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Sep 12, 2022 17:47
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bird food bathtub posted:Playing the optimistic note, what happens when Ukraine finally has full territorial sovereignty restored? Fire up the fuckin' HIMARS and give them a good going over so that the feel it an order of magnitude worse than Ukraine did. What are they gonna do? Invade?
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Sep 12, 2022 18:08
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Didn't the US provide HIMARS on the condition that Ukraine doesn't use it to attack positions inside of Russia proper?
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Sep 12, 2022 18:15
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Friend, that was for Russian invasion of Ukraine. We are now talking about Ukranian special military operation.
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Sep 12, 2022 18:20
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Pretty slick ghost nose art on this MiG-29. There's going to be a hell of a history about the Ukrainian air force once this is all said and done. https://twitter.com/magictouch190/status/1569359270000447491 
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Sep 12, 2022 18:21
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not caring here posted:Fire up the fuckin' HIMARS and give them a good going over so that the feel it an order of magnitude worse than Ukraine did. Are you talking about blasting every military installation within range, or revenge strikes against Russian civilians?
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Sep 12, 2022 18:23
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Generation Internet posted:Pretty slick ghost nose art on this MiG-29. There's going to be a hell of a history about the Ukrainian air force once this is all said and done. Back in the early hell-time of 2020, there were pics circulating of them practicing highway landings exactly like this. One pic I saw, things went slightly awry and there was a highway sign bent onto the air intake of one of their jets. The fact that they can still put any plans in the sky is amazing on their part. Those pilots are going to absolutely be in-demand as trainers for the foreseeable future.
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Sep 12, 2022 18:34
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Tomn posted:Are you talking about blasting every military installation within range, or revenge strikes against Russian civilians? Woah, let's ease up on the war crime throttle there, Boris.
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Sep 12, 2022 18:35
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Trying to make Russians more miserable seems like an uphill battle
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Sep 12, 2022 18:37
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aphid_licker posted:Trying to make Russians more miserable seems like an uphill battle Especially in rural russia, I'm not sure how you would even achieve that.
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Sep 12, 2022 18:42
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Lum_ posted:Tucker Carlson (with guest RT commentator): you see, Russia is actually winning, that's not blood in its mouth, it's victory wine Much like Trump warned us, the Ukrainians are in serious danger of getting too tired at winning.
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Sep 12, 2022 18:42
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Pine Cone Jones posted:Especially in rural russia, I'm not sure how you would even achieve that. Show pictures of indoor plumbing and point out that this is generally considered a basic thing for people to have.
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Sep 12, 2022 18:44
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Every new outlet globally is running a story on the front page about the Ukrainian rout of the Russians. Fox News literally makes no mention of it anywhere on their page.
psydude fucked around with this message at 18:55 on Sep 12, 2022 |
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Sep 12, 2022 18:53
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oh noes https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1569359928694902786?s=20&t=nkSsf9U1_6dJRmKi5GKzfA
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Sep 12, 2022 18:54
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not caring here posted:Woah, let's ease up on the war crime throttle there, Boris. I mean, that's kinda why I was asking you because "make them feel it worse than Ukraine did" felt uncomfortably close to that. Good to know it was just a misunderstanding.
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Sep 12, 2022 18:59
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Marshal Prolapse posted:Show pictures of indoor plumbing and point out that this is generally considered a basic thing for people to have. Hasn't Russian conscripts finding out the nation they are invading have it much better than themselves been a tradition? I read reports that early in WWI when the Russians entered East Prussia they were surprised that the well organized farmhouses were not owned by wealthy elites, and during WWII similar experiences upon entering German cities. psydude posted:Every new outlet globally is running a story on the front page about the Ukrainian rout of the Russians. Fox News literally makes no mention of it anywhere on their page. Not trying to get too  but wonder if Putin has leverage on Murdoch? I mean he's already openly murdering opponents in London, that wouldn't be a stretch
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Sep 12, 2022 19:00
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Ynglaur posted:There was a good essay published by Ukraine's ministry of defense that postulated that Rusdia's center of gravity is actually its ability to attack without reprisal. It was an interesting argument and I'm starting to think they may be right. The solution in the authors' view is for Ukraine to have long range missiles. That's the kind of thing Strelkov wants, because according to him, that will finally galvanize Russian society for mass mobilization. Keeping the Russian population emotionally uninvested in a Russian victory is what Ukraine needs to maintain, so the the political cost for mobilization stays too high for Putin. This assumes that lack of popular support is one of the main reasons why Russia hasn't mobilized, not just logistical or organizational issues. If there is mass mobilization, that doesn't mean Russia will win, but to me this seems like it's almost the only way that the conflict can carry on for years.
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Sep 12, 2022 19:07
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Hyrax Attack! posted:
With all the other things going upwards for Dark Brandon, presenting his war efforts being successful as Well would be very bad PR for repubs. ”Ton of money was wasted on ukraine help” sounds very hollow if Ukraine is actually using that help to mop the floor with Putin. So no, Its just Murdoch being human garbage.
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Sep 12, 2022 19:07
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Hyrax Attack! posted:Hasn't Russian conscripts finding out the nation they are invading have it much better than themselves been a tradition? I read reports that early in WWI when the Russians entered East Prussia they were surprised that the well organized farmhouses were not owned by wealthy elites, and during WWII similar experiences upon entering German cities. Eh, WSJ has had some of the best coverage of any mainstream western news outlet. Of course, WSJ has a fraction of the reach of Fox News, so it could be acting as the plausible deniability in your scenario.
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Sep 12, 2022 19:15
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psydude posted:Eh, WSJ has had some of the best coverage of any mainstream western news outlet. Of course, WSJ has a fraction of the reach of Fox News, so it could be acting as the plausible deniability in your scenario. The rule with WSJ is just never never look at the Op-ed page.
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Sep 12, 2022 19:17
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Marshal Prolapse posted:The rule with WSJ is just never never look at the Op-ed page. True, they did have the reporter who did the investigative reporting that turned into Bad Blood so that's something.
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Sep 12, 2022 19:21
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Hyrax Attack! posted:True, they did have the reporter who did the investigative reporting that turned into Bad Blood so that's something. That book does such a great job of highlighting the shady poo poo that happens in startups. Re: post-war: I see an Israel/Hezbollah situation with Ukraine needing to develop advanced CRAM, anti-air, and counter-battery capabilities. The US and NATO can provide some of it, but our stuff isn't really meant to handle that kind of harassment. Israel may be a good resource, especially given their recent retreat from relations with Moscow.
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Sep 12, 2022 19:28
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psydude posted:That book does such a great job of highlighting the shady poo poo that happens in startups. Oh 100%. The HBO documentary is an excellent companion piece to the book as it has animations of how the Theranos blood tester was supposed to work, and how it actually did function with the broken glass/contamination making it less than useful. Plenty of footage of weird startup meetings that wouldn't be out of place on Silicon Valley and montages of politicians visiting.
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Sep 12, 2022 19:33
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Hyrax Attack! posted:Oh 100%. The HBO documentary is an excellent companion piece to the book as it has animations of how the Theranos blood tester was supposed to work, and how it actually did function with the broken glass/contamination making it less than useful. Plenty of footage of weird startup meetings that wouldn't be out of place on Silicon Valley and montages of politicians visiting. Oh awesome, I didn't realize that HBO had done a documentary on it. The book was a wild ride, I look forward to more of the same.
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Sep 12, 2022 19:42
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Hyrax Attack! posted:Oh 100%. The HBO documentary is an excellent companion piece to the book as it has animations of how the Theranos blood tester was supposed to work, and how it actually did function with the broken glass/contamination making it less than useful. Plenty of footage of weird startup meetings that wouldn't be out of place on Silicon Valley and montages of politicians visiting. As someone who has had to clean up startups legal fuckups...yes. Silicon Valley...was very on point. I remember one guy say oh no company would make that mistake and then lol Tik Tok.
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Sep 12, 2022 19:44
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