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pop fly to McGillicutty posted:But all the die hard fascist chuds are openly stating they'll never support desantis They will. Something like 20% of the country and maybe 40% of Republican voters are totally dug into the cult of Trump and liken him to Christ for reasons I still can't entirely parse but I can guran-loving-tee that when it comes to nut cutting time in 2024 they will absolutely back DeSantis. FlamingLiberal posted:Oh believe me I know, I have to deal with him every day since he’s my Governor same and it sucks FlamingLiberal posted:DeSantis doesn’t have even a tenth of the weird charisma that the Right likes so it’s going to be an uphill battle Doesn't matter. He still possesses 100% of the cruelty and passes the punishing draconian regressive legislation that Trumpers really love. Donald is like the second or third form of someone like Sarah Palin, fully evolved. Empty, vacuous and well liked not despite their idiocy but mainly because of it. Most Trump supporters are dumb, angry and mean as poo poo but mostly that first thing to where they feel a kinship. Intelligence is a net negative of them, broadly speaking. Ron isn't DUMB so he doesn't check that box where they LIKE a candidate who's as vacant and stupid as they are but he's got the mean rear end in a top hat part down and also is WAY more savvy. He's just not a TV star with the built in marketing machine and lacks a certain measure of "outsider" cred. Hell, I remember when McCain was on the ropes and trotted Palin out there all she had to do was give one stupid insulting speech with a touch of folksly "charm" and a pretty face and all my GOP voting coworkers were buzzing about "being sold" the next day despite her not really saying anything. They didn't care about her experience or credentials. She was a blank slate, pretty and a woman (therefore a counter to Hillary) who got in a few juvenile burns on Obama. So qualified for the Vice Presidency. GOP voters don't give this process a lot of thought tbh. They listen to radio, read FB and watch FOX where "gently caress the Liberals" is all you need. Desantis has that. Never mind and it doesn't even matter that Obama, Biden or Hillary aren't really liberal or far left. You just have to out conservative the next person. Don't even worry about it. Actually...DO worry about it
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Sep 10, 2022 00:20
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BiggerBoat posted:They will. Something like 20% of the country and maybe 40% of Republican voters are totally dug into the cult of Trump and liken him to Christ for reasons I still can't entirely parse but I can guran-loving-tee that when it comes to nut cutting time in 2024 they will absolutely back DeSantis. It seemed simper than all that in 2015/2016. Trump just said all the racist poo poo out loud that the mouth breathers were dying to be able to say (without consequence). Not a moment's thought given to policy other than "fags/coloreds/freaks aren't real people and don't deserve anything and you can't make me give a poo poo."
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Sep 10, 2022 15:22
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BiggerBoat posted:Never mind and it doesn't even matter that Obama, Biden or Hillary aren't really liberal or far left. Or even on the left
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Sep 10, 2022 20:16
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https://twitter.com/ronfilipkowski/status/1568724493178228738
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Sep 11, 2022 05:07
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Imagine paying hundreds of dollars for that.
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Sep 11, 2022 06:17
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Invalid Validation posted:Imagine paying hundreds of dollars for that. And then getting a visit from those nice men of the Secret Service.
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Sep 11, 2022 06:33
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They will back DeSantis for sure but only after Trump imo. As long as Trump runs I can't see anyone making the libs mad enough to satiate them.
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Sep 11, 2022 13:26
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Personally I look forward to Trump absolutely sandbagging every other Republican running if he's hops back into the mix. None of his followers are nearly ashamed enough to not turn out again and people like Desantis wont even make a dent. Lots of "Your wife is ugly" politics incoming. "Respectability" doesn't mean much to Republicans anymore. It would all be funny if it weren't, you know, terrible.
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Sep 11, 2022 13:36
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It's not clear Trump could even get the nomination now. He's not special. He ran just repeating poo poo from Fox News and everything he had to free hand he either ate poo poo on or it got retconned into being conservative brain geniusery. The entirety of the base that supports Trump is anti-vax now, and Trump won't be able to keep his mouth shut about what a great job he did with Operation Warp Speed. He also had a large hand in a lot of government spending during the pandemic, and the GOP is now all in on that government spending creating the rising prices. Whatever zeitgeist he was tapped into before has moved on. His message is now fundamentally backward-looking, he's no longer actually much of an outsider, people know exactly what he'd do in the presidency, and he's too filled with personal grievance over the election and this stupid document poo poo. DeSantis is all the Trump policies with none of the Trump baggage. As long as he doesn't lose his re-election in Florida, he beats Trump handily in the primary. They're thirsty for DeSantis. They'll talk a big game about Trump, they like him personally, but DeSantis is their new great white hope.
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Sep 11, 2022 13:40
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ErIog posted:It's not clear Trump could even get the nomination now. I'm not sure I agree, though I'd be happily be proven wrong. I think that Trump followers are Trump followers, period. My neighbors are already displaying Trump 2024 signs, whether he's running or not. Desantis doesn't have that kind of heat. I think Trump supporters are whatever they need to be to support Trump. They are anti-vax except when they can laud Trump's accomplishments with the vaccine (that they wont take). Trump's spending was good while other spending is bad. The documents thing is no big deal, but Lock Her Up etc. Granted, my view is from the Deep South but my more conservative acquaintances don't breathe Desantis' name. Trump is still talked about like he's still President and he'll be back in the White House any day now. I suppose we will see as the election draws closer but I can't imagine it going down any other way than Trump having a tremendous temper tantrum and attempting to throw the GOP under the bus somehow. I think it will be moderately to completely successful, personally.
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Sep 11, 2022 13:48
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How does fox news talk about trump these days? Does he still have the best name recognition among old people who watch tv all day? I can see trump getting supplanted for some if another personality starts getting served up to their mush brains.
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Sep 11, 2022 13:54
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What happens when he leaves office? Imagine going to the dealer and seeing the kid with the custom lift kit and converted his backseat into a stereo getting more money because they have to replace the tailgate before selling your car.
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Sep 11, 2022 13:59
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HootTheOwl posted:What happens when he leaves office? It's probably just a vinyl wrap/sticker.
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Sep 11, 2022 14:05
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HootTheOwl posted:What happens when he leaves office? You're talking about a group of people who only recently stopped mentioning Ted Kennedy despite him having been dead for like a whole rear end decade. They still talk about Vince Foster. If anything is evergreen it's conservative grievance about Democrats. Levantine posted:I'm not sure I agree, though I'd be happily be proven wrong. I think that Trump followers are Trump followers, period. My neighbors are already displaying Trump 2024 signs, whether he's running or not. Desantis doesn't have that kind of heat. I don't really disagree with a lot of your disagreement. I just think a lot of people here underestimate how fickle the GOP base is. Sarah Palin put together a few years grifting, and when it turned out she was bad at it they dropped her. She couldn't even win a statewide race in Alaska with ranked choice. They will never retroactively disparage people. They will always say, "at that time, they were the right person, but then now..." The same thing will happen to Trump. You can't ride the bull that long when you're not that smart. They seek new blood. They want it. I don't think it's gonna be a clown car primary. I think it's gonna be DeSantis and Trump, and DeSantis is gonna put him away. The GOP is loving weird right now. They don't usually operate this way. Their primaries are usually bloody. I think this cycle is gonna be the opposite. The amount of tailwind DeSantis has right now is kind of unprecedented. ErIog fucked around with this message at 14:20 on Sep 11, 2022 |
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Sep 11, 2022 14:13
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ErIog posted:You're talking about a group of people who only recently stopped mentioning Ted Kennedy despite him having been dead for like a whole rear end decade. It’s still two years out and one thing I’ve always remembered about republicans is they always start annoiting an heir apparent two years before and every loving time that person self-destructs in some incredibly crazy way. That the establishment is lining up behind DeSantis without him actually displaying the skills everyone keeps telling me he has makes me think he will not be an exception to the rule. Gillum was under a loving FBI investigation for trading favors for Hamilton tickets and DeSantis barely put him away and ran behind Rick loving Scott. We’ll see how he does this cycle but right now he reminds me of Warren or Cory Booker where the commentariat is convinced he has all the right stuff and ignore the fact that in actual elections they keep running well-behind where they should be.
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Sep 11, 2022 16:43
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:It’s still two years out and one thing I’ve always remembered about republicans is they always start annoiting an heir apparent two years before and every loving time that person self-destructs in some incredibly crazy way. Somewhere in Wisconsin, Scott Walker very slowly attempts to blink both eyes at the same time, unsuccessfully.
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Sep 11, 2022 17:44
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Yeah, the vast majority of the fascists will back DeSantis no problem. Very few people truly really like Trump because there is nothing to Trump. Trump is a hollow husk masquerading as a human being. To call him evil is in some ways to give him more credit that he deserves because he in many ways lacks that capacity. He's an empty howling void who will say and do things for attention. Remember when they booed him for promoting vaccines at one of his Nuremberg Rallies? They don't like Trump, they like The Fact That Trump Says And Enables Openly Fascist Things. DeSantis does that too, and in many ways does it better because DeSantis is either a genuine fascist or a traditional 'capitalist masquerading as a fascist' as per the pre-Trump GOP. Trump is not a fascist, he lacks the capacity for actual ideals, even bad ones. He's a narcissist who's co-opted a fascist movement. Fascists support fascism. That they support Trump at the moment is coincidental and conditional and while some may stay home, yeah. The only way I see the majority of Trump's supporters not falling in line behind DeSantis is if we end up getting someone that is Trump 2.0 - that is to say some dark horse wildcard that comes out of nowhere and runs roughshod over the competition by being more openly fascist than they are.
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Sep 11, 2022 18:07
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Looking forward to the 2024 version of this. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8bVKt25YdE
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Sep 11, 2022 18:10
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RoboChrist 9000 posted:Yeah, the vast majority of the fascists will back DeSantis no problem. Very few people truly really like Trump because there is nothing to Trump. Trump is a hollow husk masquerading as a human being. To call him evil is in some ways to give him more credit that he deserves because he in many ways lacks that capacity. He's an empty howling void who will say and do things for attention. Remember when they booed him for promoting vaccines at one of his Nuremberg Rallies? They don't like Trump, they like The Fact That Trump Says And Enables Openly Fascist Things. DeSantis does that too, and in many ways does it better because DeSantis is either a genuine fascist or a traditional 'capitalist masquerading as a fascist' as per the pre-Trump GOP. Trump is not a fascist, he lacks the capacity for actual ideals, even bad ones. He's a narcissist who's co-opted a fascist movement. I feel like there's a sizeable enough chunk of the GOP electorate who just needed a big daddy king to project their white grievance identity onto, and that's Trump; anyone else not quite as charismatic (or, we should remember, was burned into the pop culture consciousness through decades of TV appearances and Branding projects) just won't punch through in the same way. DeSantis will activate the wilier chuds who want to be more strategic about bringing about open fascism, but won't grab the attention of the folks who just like to watch a charismatically blustering weirdo insult their enemies. Not only that, I just don't think enough people will be willing to admit to themselves that they were bamboozled by Trump to peel off him. It's a tautology; they like Trump because they like Trump.
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Sep 11, 2022 18:30
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The only thing that's gonna stop Trump from winning the primary is Trump. His factless mudslinging and personal attacks are unbeatable with the braindead Republican base who nurture grievances almost as much as the man himself. So Trump can either sit it out or just fail to do all the administrative work to participate--he had the full support of the GOP in 2016 and 2020 and since DeSantis is clearly their man now, they might leave him to run his own show and gently caress it all up. Another possibility is that someone convinces him to sit it out but he spends all his time sniping at the newly anointed one and then tries some stupid independent run because he misses the attention.
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Sep 12, 2022 00:16
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Hewlett posted:I feel like there's a sizeable enough chunk of the GOP electorate who just needed a big daddy king to project their white grievance identity onto, and that's Trump; anyone else not quite as charismatic (or, we should remember, was burned into the pop culture consciousness through decades of TV appearances and Branding projects) just won't punch through in the same way. DeSantis will activate the wilier chuds who want to be more strategic about bringing about open fascism, but won't grab the attention of the folks who just like to watch a charismatically blustering weirdo insult their enemies. Not only that, I just don't think enough people will be willing to admit to themselves that they were bamboozled by Trump to peel off him. It's a tautology; they like Trump because they like Trump. I agree with you if the assumption is that Trump is actively going against DeSantis. DeSantis doesn't say the quiet parts loud like Trump, which was part of my point, so given the choice - or the illusion of choice - between the two they will defer to Trump, but if Trump is dead or in jail then the overwhelming majority will support DeSantis. But by and large I kind of agree. I think the most realistic route that leads to anything besides President Trump in 2025 is that Trump is dead or that a dark horse wildcard even worse than Trump stole the hearts of the fash. I suppose it's also possible, although less likely in my opinion, that DeSantis runs instead of Trump and Trump splits the vote intentionally or accidentally (if Trump is in jail or something or fucks up running I can see people doing him as a write-in even though he's not actually running) and we wind up with more Biden or whatever the Dems are throwing our way, but yeah. They want fascism. They are too stupid too realize that DeSantis is the best route for that, so they would prefer Trump, but if Trump is unable to give it to them they will go with DeSantis. That said, yeah. My money's still on Trump running and winning unless it happens that complications from COVID, another COVID or whatever plague(s) are circulating in 2023 and 2024, or the results of decades of bad eating and no exercise and old age do him in.
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Sep 12, 2022 03:25
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I'm in blood red Florida and the amount of times I've heard desantis called a cuck BY Republicans tells me he won't be their new king. I could be wrong, I really hope I'm not.
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Sep 12, 2022 14:44
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pop fly to McGillicutty posted:I'm in blood red Florida and the amount of times I've heard desantis called a cuck BY Republicans tells me he won't be their new king. I could be wrong, I really hope I'm not. Two years of coordinated messaging will have them flip their tune.
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Sep 12, 2022 16:40
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As long as someone gives the base the permission to enact their individual bigotries that they're motivated by they'll fall in line with whatever rear end in a top hat is the loudest about it and manufacture a justification somewhere down the line. Give them what they want longer, louder, and harder then if he gets out-sold on the message Trump will be a fart in a hurricane. If DeSantis manages that, he'll grab the base. If not, someone will. Possibly even Trump again. All comes down to who can sell the message of hatred and bigotry the loudest.
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Sep 12, 2022 17:03
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Well that's the thing, the die hards will always crawl through broken glass to vote for the GOP nominee, that's the way it is. What matters is if they are enough to inspire the not so die hards to come out, or the fence sitting "independents." People were pumped to vote for Trump or against Hillary. I am not as sure in 2024 that the same people will be motivated to turn out in such numbers for a stiff wannabe like Desantis or against a President who has done a handful of minor good things that nonetheless are putting him above a very low bar set by the last two Dem administrations. It's a long way out yet, personally I hope Trump keels over before 2024 because I think otherwise he will be the nominee again, and that will actually be dangerous. But I am interested to see what midterms look like because I think most normals might actually be fired up by stuff like Roe v Wade and "vote" in a way that us political junkies and twitterati don't respond to. I talked to a couple of politically-disengaged old coworkers in the lead up to 2020 and they were both non-voters who turned up because they were scared of losing loved ones' access to Medicaid. In any case I'm morbidly curious because I think 2016 broke a lot of brains and I don't think previous election cycles or midterm trends are going to be useful in predicting this one for various reasons. I guess we'll also have to see if any of this is enough to brute force past the GOP's amped up voter disenfranchisement.
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Sep 12, 2022 17:36
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I think Trump activated a lot of voters who wouldn't otherwise give two shits about the Republican party and likely still consider the rest of the party part of the "establishment" for which they hold so much contempt. I'm not sure any old rear end in a top hat like DeSantis can come along and just say enough racism loudly and clearly enough to motivate those people the way Trump does. Giving them a permission structure to voice their own bigotry is definitely a huge part of Trump's appeal, but it's not the only part. DeSantis is not a "political outsider", nor a "successful billionaire businessman", nor a performative buffoon who's willing to insult his way to the front of a pack confident that the rest of the pack will fall in line behind him. The reason why none of these guys (DeSantis, Cruz, Pompeo, etc.) haven't been able to clearly position themselves as Trump's heir apparent is because none of them possess Trump's charisma and ability to perform for crowds. They come across as ivy league assholes trying to do a bit they're ill-suited for because they are ivy league assholes trying to do a bit they're ill-suited for.
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Sep 12, 2022 18:15
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That's the thing with celebrity candidates (Trump, Schwarzenegger, Ventura), they have the ability to reach out to and activate people who normally don't vote and don't have very strong party preferences. But when they're not on the ballot, those voters mostly de-activate and stay home. A lot of people in California who normally didn't bother voting came out to vote for the "Governator" because they thought it would be hilarious/awesome to have fuckin' Conan in charge of the state; very few of them stuck around to vote for subsequent Republican candidates when Arnold was no longer on the ballot. Hopefully, the people Trump drew to the polls will similarly stay home if DeSantis (or w/e) is the Republican candidate.
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Sep 12, 2022 18:56
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PeterWeller posted:I think Trump activated a lot of voters who wouldn't otherwise give two shits about the Republican party and likely still consider the rest of the party part of the "establishment" for which they hold so much contempt. I'm not sure any old rear end in a top hat like DeSantis can come along and just say enough racism loudly and clearly enough to motivate those people the way Trump does. Giving them a permission structure to voice their own bigotry is definitely a huge part of Trump's appeal, but it's not the only part. DeSantis is not a "political outsider", nor a "successful billionaire businessman", nor a performative buffoon who's willing to insult his way to the front of a pack confident that the rest of the pack will fall in line behind him. DeSantis is a phony, but he’s “doing the bit” way better than any of the others and at least for most GOP fans he does project the obstinate loudmouth rear end in a top hat attitude they like and want. That’s why memes and video clips of him essentially being the anti vax George Wallace standing in the schoolhouse door get passed around on social media. The issue for him is he has to tread a narrow path. It’s not enough just to get the GOP nomination, he has to get essentially all of the red hats to turn out to vote also. He can’t lose ten percent of them being butt hurt because he said something against Trump or Trump got pissed and turned on him. That’s why he’s been quiet as a church mouse during this document investigation.
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Sep 12, 2022 19:14
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Zwabu posted:DeSantis is a phony, but he’s “doing the bit” way better than any of the others and at least for most GOP fans he does project the obstinate loudmouth rear end in a top hat attitude they like and want. That’s why memes and video clips of him essentially being the anti vax George Wallace standing in the schoolhouse door get passed around on social media. I'm not sure DeSantis is doing the bit better than anyone else. I think he's doing it about as well as the Trumpy senators like Cruz and Halsey. I think he has a better position than them to do the bit from because he's an executive with a pliant and supportive legislature behind him, so he can walk the walk as it were. But that he feels it necessary to tread that narrow path is precisely why he's not capable of truly taking on Trump's mantle. A real successor to Trump would just poo poo on Trump for all the trouble he's gotten into, secure in the knowledge that by being the biggest, loudest bully in the room, he'd win over the crowd. Or in other words, Trump's trick wasn't just making GBS threads on Dems and the press. It was also fearlessly making GBS threads on all the other Reps who stood in his way.
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Sep 12, 2022 19:52
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I think DeSantis is screwed by being in the Executive branch of Florida while Trump's under investigation. He can throw as much chaff at the FBI as he wants but at the end of the day Trump's base wants someone who yells and makes people Do Something! just like their guy. Yeah DeSantis is in their corner but the fact he's 'letting' the investigation happen at all is proof he's  and low-energy. Trump's base doesn't do nuance.
Xand_Man fucked around with this message at 20:34 on Sep 12, 2022 |
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Sep 12, 2022 20:32
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Xand_Man posted:I think DeSantis is screwed by being in the Executive branch of Florida while Trump's under investigation. He can throw as much chaff at the FBI as he wants but at the end of the day Trump's base wants someone who yells and makes people Do Something! just like their guy. Yeah DeSantis is in their corner but the fact he's 'letting' the investigation happen at all is proof he's I think DeSantis has a very narrow chance of dodging this, but it requires Trump not getting angry and yelling about how Rotten Ron won't lift a "finger" to help against the worst WITCH HUNT IN ALL HUMAN HISTORY!!! on his fake twitter. So, you know, probably no chance at all, barring Trump getting too distracted yelling at/about other things and/or falling into a months-long coma.
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Sep 12, 2022 20:40
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De Santis is also an extraordinarily dull public speaker. His voice is flat, tedious and boring. Trump, while completely incoherent, has a sort of hypnotic cadence that clearly works on his cultists. I can't see anyone getting getting that worked up to hear a de santis speech. His delivery is purestrain valium.
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Sep 12, 2022 20:51
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DeSantis isn't winning any presidential race any time soon. I say this because he barely has a hold on the GOP in his home state. If he decides to go up against Trump it's gonna be a bloodbath and he's going to come out the other side like JEB!
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Sep 12, 2022 22:17
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Zipperelli. posted:DeSantis isn't winning any presidential race any time soon. I say this because he barely has a hold on the GOP in his home state. If he decides to go up against Trump it's gonna be a bloodbath and he's going to come out the other side like JEB! He barely won the last time against a guy under investigation for corruption, who then blew up after losing in a drug and gay prostitute binge.
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Sep 12, 2022 22:42
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RocknRollaAyatollah posted:He barely won the last time against a guy under investigation for corruption, who then blew up after losing in a drug and gay prostitute binge. Yeah, I think the best he can hope for is to hang on for dear life to being governor, IF that. I will die laughing if he gets punted by Charlie loving Crist. DuhSantis has no shot at the big chair as of right now. He has the charisma of an eggplant and is constantly stepping on his own dick here in FL. Unless something drastic changes, this is all he's ever gonna get.
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Sep 13, 2022 00:36
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What's the consensus here on who the Dems are going to run in 2024? The party line obviously is saying Biden and I'm inclined to agree that's what will happen. But almost every person I talk to seems convinced he won't run again. But, nothing against her but I don't feel particularly great about Kamala running. Frankly I don't love the Biden vs desantis matchup either but y'all are making me feel a little better about it. (I'm really only concerned about chances of keeping a Dem I'm power at this point, not about policies or who it is beyond their likelihood to win)
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Sep 13, 2022 03:07
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Any possibility of someone under 70?
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Sep 13, 2022 03:57
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The Lone Badger posted:Any possibility of someone under 70? That's what I would greatly prefer, and the only reason I'm a bit afraid of desantis. Towards that end, I'd be fine with Kamela as a Biden alternative but if they want that as a possibility why are they not beginning to posture for it now? I feel like you have to try hard to realize she exists
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Sep 13, 2022 04:06
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Fortunate Bird posted:That's what I would greatly prefer, and the only reason I'm a bit afraid of desantis. Kamala is seriously one of the biggest charisma voids I've ever seen in politics, and my state has continually elected Ted Cruz to national office.
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Sep 13, 2022 04:09
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Fortunate Bird posted:What's the consensus here on who the Dems are going to run in 2024? The party line obviously is saying Biden and I'm inclined to agree that's what will happen. But almost every person I talk to seems convinced he won't run again. But, nothing against her but I don't feel particularly great about Kamala running. Frankly I don't love the Biden vs desantis matchup either but y'all are making me feel a little better about it. Possible not-biden '24 Dem Candidates ranked by likelihood of winning general (subjective opinion) 1. Sherrod Brown 2. Andy Beshear 3. Raphael Warnock 4. JB Pritzker Big gap 5. Mayor Pete Big Gap 6. Gavin Newsom I think I saw Evel Knievel jump this huge loving gap 7. Kamala Harris Possible not-biden '24 dem candidates ranked by likelihood of winning primary The list above but reversed.
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Sep 13, 2022 04:29
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