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gay picnic defence posted:A bunch of leaders making a point of keep Putin waiting seems petty but in diplomatic circles that poo poo can carry a lot of weight and sends a pretty strong message.
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Sep 17, 2022 20:27
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The "Chechens as blocking force" thing is for sure over emphasized. Regular Russian soldiers are plenty dogmatic.
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Sep 17, 2022 20:29
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Chalks posted:It's a possibility - but it would have to be a separate incident from the one referenced in this tweet from 6 days ago. Chechens can be called terrorists too.
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Sep 17, 2022 20:36
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The X-man cometh posted:Chechens can be called terrorists too. Calling Russian soldiers shooting at Chechen units while trying to surrender a "counter-terrorist operation" would make about as much sense as calling the Kharkiv rout a planned strategic move, so maybe!
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Sep 17, 2022 20:58
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The X-man cometh posted:Chechens can be called terrorists too.
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Sep 17, 2022 21:10
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mobby_6kl posted:In fact this wouldn't be the first time I was just going to say, that video + phrase “counterterrorism operation” was a very specific mood in the noughts. edit: https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1571216169431867402 cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 21:29 on Sep 17, 2022 |
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Sep 17, 2022 21:13
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The X-man cometh posted:Chechens can be called terrorists too. Not to nitpick, but I think it's worth mentioning that "Chechens" are fighting for Ukraine as well.
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Sep 17, 2022 21:49
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I was just going to say, that video + phrase “counterterrorism operation” was a very specific mood in the noughts. I hope there is some way this can be sent to Ian McCollum at Forgotten Weapons.
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Sep 17, 2022 21:51
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a pipe smoking dog posted:I hope there is some way this can be sent to Ian McCollum at Forgotten Weapons. That would be a great idea. After it's used to discretely pick off some key Russian officers. Even has the subsonic rounds for maximum discretion, this thing has probably seen more use in Russia than Ukraine.
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Sep 17, 2022 21:56
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Speaking of Chechnya, and I don't want to speculate any further about this because there is nothing solid to say, Ramzan Kadyrov's power depends entirely on Vladimir Putin. If Putin falls (out of a window) then so does Kadyrov clan. And with Kadyrov goes Russia's control over Chechnya. But you can put Third Chechnyan in the same pile with all the rest of conflicts that are flaring up in southern parts of ex-USSR. There's not much that can be done about it.
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Sep 17, 2022 22:07
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a pipe smoking dog posted:I hope there is some way this can be sent to Ian McCollum at Forgotten Weapons. There are Ukrainian gun youtubers who get to look at some trophys, hopefully they get a chance to examine that one. Here are them going through the famous Vintorez and being extremely not impressed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZ86AnjJT-0
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Sep 17, 2022 22:10
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a pipe smoking dog posted:I hope there is some way this can be sent to Ian McCollum at Forgotten Weapons. He hates bullpups
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Sep 17, 2022 22:17
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:He hates bullpups That's fine, wrong or not I think I'd enjoy hearing him go on about how this gun is a sin against nature or whatever. As well as all the history and speculation as to how it was made and ended up in Ukraine.
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Sep 17, 2022 22:23
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:He hates bullpups He hates bad bullpups. His most favourite gun is the Famas, but he also loves the VHS-2 and he owns both (well the VHS-2 is semi automatic and is called Springfield Hellion which just sounds awful imo). Back on topic: Have there been any additional foreigners arriving for the international legion or has the interest more or less cooled down?
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Sep 17, 2022 22:35
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:He hates bullpups Yeah but he loves guns in general especially extremely rare guns.
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Sep 17, 2022 22:39
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Charliegrs posted:Yeah but he loves guns in general especially extremely rare guns. 
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Sep 17, 2022 22:44
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Nenonen posted:Speaking of Chechnya, and I don't want to speculate any further about this because there is nothing solid to say, Ramzan Kadyrov's power depends entirely on Vladimir Putin. If Putin falls (out of a window) then so does Kadyrov clan. And with Kadyrov goes Russia's control over Chechnya. Wouldn't the person throwing Kadyrov out the window have their own pet Chechen to run things?
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Sep 17, 2022 22:45
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Do we have any reliable data on how many Soviet small arms the Ukrainians are using versus 5.56 stuff like AR pattern rifles or FN rifles? I recall a lot of foreign volunteers had a choice between AK pattern or NATO chambered rifles when they signed on but wondering if the ratio is gradually moving towards more recent model nato based and US based small arms.
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Sep 17, 2022 22:46
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TearsOfPirates posted:Have there been any additional foreigners arriving for the international legion or has the interest more or less cooled down? It's not something we have particularly good visibility into. I would expect the flow now to be considerably slower than it was in the spring, perhaps slow enough to argue about whether if “flow” describes it well.
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Sep 17, 2022 22:49
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the popes toes posted:How about extremely long guns? Behold, the Ukrainian Snipex Gator.  What does it fire, hotdogs?
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Sep 17, 2022 22:59
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Payndz posted:The length of that magazine. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/14.5%C3%97114mm These, apparently. Chunky boys.
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Sep 17, 2022 23:00
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The X-man cometh posted:Wouldn't the person throwing Kadyrov out the window have their own pet Chechen to run things? Kadyrov isn't just some rando. His dad was one of the Chechen warlords who rebelled against Moscow, and his army's loyalty to him is fundamentally personal. A huge chunk of those fighters won't follow anyone else Moscow installs.
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Sep 17, 2022 23:15
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The X-man cometh posted:Wouldn't the person throwing Kadyrov out the window have their own pet Chechen to run things? I don't think replacing Kadyrov is anything close to a trivial affair for Russia. They don't really have anyone else with an extensive patronage network and a bunch of violent and devoted followers who's willing to remain loyal to Russia (or rather.. specifically loyal to Putin, which seems more like the case with Kadyrov). Kadyrov's Chechnya is dependent on Russia for for alot, especially funding and arms IIRC, but due to the the previously emphasized point, he's got a lot more leverage than I think is often acknowledged. There's a reason he's basically allowed to run rampant and do whatever he wants within Chechnya.
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Sep 17, 2022 23:17
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Morrow posted:Kadyrov isn't just some rando. His dad was one of the Chechen warlords who rebelled against Moscow, and his army's loyalty to him is fundamentally personal. A huge chunk of those fighters won't follow anyone else Moscow installs. Wasn’t his father also a religious leader in the separatist government in the first invasion? And then stabbed them all in the back at some point to cozy up to Russia? I think I recall he got assassinated for it. Fake Edit: Ignore the AV it’s a whole thing.
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Sep 17, 2022 23:19
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freeasinbeer posted:Fake Edit: Ignore the AV it’s a whole thing. I know costs of living are rising and all that, but it's just five bucks to change it back, isn't it?
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Sep 17, 2022 23:22
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freeasinbeer posted:Wasn’t his father also a religious leader in the separatist government in the first invasion? And then stabbed them all in the back at some point to cozy up to Russia? I think I recall he got assassinated for it. IIRC he'd studied Islamic law at a Soviet institution and was a somewhat prominent religious official, which translates into he was almost certainly a KGB informer/agent.
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Sep 17, 2022 23:26
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cinci zoo sniper posted:It's not something we have particularly good visibility into. I would expect the flow now to be considerably slower than it was in the spring, perhaps slow enough to argue about whether if “flow” describes it well. I'm surprised Ukraine bothered with the foreign legion at all. Apart from the applicants that show up fully trained with specialized skills and have already fought, spending all that time and energy training and equipping someone that's not familiar with the language & culture and can just walk off in a month sounds like a big risk for little payoff.
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Sep 17, 2022 23:28
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Randarkman posted:I don't think replacing Kadyrov is anything close to a trivial affair for Russia. They don't really have anyone else with an extensive patronage network and a bunch of violent and devoted followers who's willing to remain loyal to Russia (or rather.. specifically loyal to Putin, which seems more like the case with Kadyrov). Kadyrov's Chechnya is dependent on Russia for for alot, especially funding and arms IIRC, but due to the the previously emphasized point, he's got a lot more leverage than I think is often acknowledged. There's a reason he's basically allowed to run rampant and do whatever he wants within Chechnya. IIRC, Kadyrov's forces were trained up by the FSB - not the army - and then FSB was kicked out. Kadyrov seems to function as a counterweight to the FSB, but his outsider status prevents him from ever being an actual threat to the throne. And Putin doesn't give a poo poo about what he does in Chechnya - in fact, the more brutal Kadyrov is, the better, since that makes him all the more dependent on Putin's backing. Putin doesn't want to replace him, he doesn't give a poo poo as long as Kadyrov is loyal and is doing his job of making it more difficult for anyone in the security apparatus to engineer a coup.
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Sep 17, 2022 23:30
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The X-man cometh posted:Wouldn't the person throwing Kadyrov out the window have their own pet Chechen to run things? Probably not. Maybe they would be able to recruit Kadyrov or some of his underlings to their ranks, but if Russian economy goes to full tilt then there is less bribe money, if any, to give to Kadyrov, who then can't pay his vassals and thus things start falling apart. Chechnya is akin to North Korea, there is just no democracy whatsoever so there also aren't any opposition parties ready to take power peacefully if the current government falls and there aren't any real challengers even inside Kadyrov's gang to Ramzan because he would have killed anyone so bold already, lest he be killed by them. It's a mafia run state pretty much.
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Sep 17, 2022 23:30
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Randarkman posted:IIRC he'd studied Islamic law at a Soviet institution and was a somewhat prominent religious official, which translates into he was almost certainly a KGB informer/agent. What I was remembering was he was Chief Mufti of independent Chechnya and lead a Militia. Switched sides at start of the second Invasion and was President of Chechnya after the war until he was assassinated by islamists.
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Sep 17, 2022 23:34
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Kadyrov derives a significant amount of his power from the massive amount of cash that Moscow funnels into Chechnya through him as part of Putin's deal with the devil for peace in Chechnya. He'd lose a lot of leverage without that, but after two decades his grip on power and established security state very likely could survive without Moscow's support. Similar actually to hypotheticals about post-Putin Russia, you have a related core question of 'if not Kadyrov then who?' in Chechnya and Kadyrov has been significantly more ruthless than even Putin about ensuring that there is no answer to that question. There's a reason that there are significant numbers of Chechen fighters turning up to fight against Russia in every conflict Russia is party to: Chechnya is a very bad place to be if you oppose the status quo at all publicly or visibly. That's not to say his post-putin survival is guaranteed or anything, I'm just skeptical of the idea that putin going means kadyrov is gone. Particularly so if it's at a time where Russia can extremely not afford a new Chechen conflict.
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Sep 17, 2022 23:48
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Kadyrov derives a significant amount of his power from the massive amount of cash that Moscow funnels into Chechnya through him as part of Putin's deal with the devil for peace in Chechnya. He'd lose a lot of leverage without that, but after two decades his grip on power and established security state very likely could survive without Moscow's support. Similar actually to hypotheticals about post-Putin Russia, you have a related core question of 'if not Kadyrov then who?' in Chechnya and Kadyrov has been significantly more ruthless than even Putin about ensuring that there is no answer to that question. There's a reason that there are significant numbers of Chechen fighters turning up to fight against Russia in every conflict Russia is party to: Chechnya is a very bad place to be if you oppose the status quo at all publicly or visibly. That's not to say his post-putin survival is guaranteed or anything, I'm just skeptical of the idea that putin going means kadyrov is gone. Particularly so if it's at a time where Russia can extremely not afford a new Chechen conflict. But for the very reasons that you mention, it would be hard for Kadyrov to maintain status quo: he's extremely unliked and dependent on Putin. Russia is running out of tanks, planes and everything, so there is little to give to him. If thousands of anti-Kadyrov fighters started to return to Chechnya, would he be able to repress guerrillas swiftly without tanks and air support? Maybe, maybe not. We can't tell any of this beforehand, but I think it's clear that things don't look good for Ramzan if Putin falters, and if Kadyrov falters then there are going to be people who want vengeance. Nenonen fucked around with this message at 00:04 on Sep 18, 2022 |
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Sep 18, 2022 00:01
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HolHorsejob posted:I'm surprised Ukraine bothered with the foreign legion at all. Apart from the applicants that show up fully trained with specialized skills and have already fought, spending all that time and energy training and equipping someone that's not familiar with the language & culture and can just walk off in a month sounds like a big risk for little payoff. A Finnish volunteer fighter was interviewed(article in Finnish, sorry  ) earlier this week, and he said that he was "stuck in Kyiv for awhile" training the locals, when he wanted to go to the front lines instead. Presumably this was a somewhat useful way of utilizing a foreign volunteer, especially given that the same guy saw some combat during the summer, got wounded and is currently back in Finland. He says in the interview that he wants to go back, but he also opines that a lot of his fellow foreign volunteers "behaved poorly and got drunk a lot" during his time there, so who knows.
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Sep 18, 2022 00:07
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Nenonen posted:But for the very reasons that you mention, it would be hard for Kadyrov to maintain status quo: he's extremely unliked and dependent on Putin. Russia is running out of tanks, planes and everything, so there is little to give to him. If thousands of anti-Kadyrov fighters started to return to Chechnya, would he be able to repress guerrillas swiftly without tanks and air support? It's more that Putin is dependent on Kadyrov. Particularly at the present moment which is why Kadyrov recently made noise about quitting while he was ahead (i.e. he realized that he could get an even better deal because Putin was particularly unable to deal with Chechen unrest). Given the current state of the Russian military, they are completely unable to deal with a new Chechen war so Kadyrov remains vital to whoever succeeds Putin. Imo it's significant that Kadyrov is able to keep Chechnya pacified even while aligned with one of the single most unpopular people for a Chechen to be aligned with. His entire deal is that he is willing to do literally whatever it takes to keep Chechnya pacified. Putin disappearing doesn't change his willingness to use literally any amount of violence to stay in power and if anything he'd probably spin it into Chechnya finally being free of that piece of poo poo, Putin. I agree that nothing is certain either way and Kadyrov unquestionably has made incredible amounts of enemies, idk how many enemies he has that are remotely strong enough to come at him in any way. This was the aftermath of the last prominent Kadyrov critic https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/11/world/europe/chechnya-abduction-putin-russia.html Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 00:14 on Sep 18, 2022 |
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Sep 18, 2022 00:09
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:IIRC, Kadyrov's forces were trained up by the FSB - not the army - and then FSB was kicked out. Kadyrov seems to function as a counterweight to the FSB, but his outsider status prevents him from ever being an actual threat to the throne. And Putin doesn't give a poo poo about what he does in Chechnya - in fact, the more brutal Kadyrov is, the better, since that makes him all the more dependent on Putin's backing. No, it's not quite like that. Kadyrov's guard is 141st motorized of Rosgvardiya (national guard) + Chechen OMON (riot police). 141st motorized is a 1st Chechen War formation, personal guard of Akhmad Kadyrov, and switched sides with him. It's that same guerilla from ways back, and was legalized as a part of ministry of interior troops somewhat separate from FSB.
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Sep 18, 2022 00:26
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Payndz posted:The length of that magazine. I don't recall all the specifics, but I think this is in the category of anti-tank guns. I don't know that they take out tanks necessarily but can damage em. I'm sure someone with actual military background can provide better info than I can, if it's relevant - or to point out I'm wrong.
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Sep 18, 2022 04:33
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notwithoutmyanus posted:I don't recall all the specifics, but I think this is in the category of anti-tank guns. I don't know that they take out tanks necessarily but can damage em. I'm sure someone with actual military background can provide better info than I can, if it's relevant - or to point out I'm wrong.
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Sep 18, 2022 04:37
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Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.    (This is looking south from Kerch harbor. The bridge is barely visible on the horizon.)
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Sep 18, 2022 04:38
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https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1571123342366613505
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Sep 18, 2022 06:21
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I expect experiments to counter Iranian weaponry is something they won’t have a ton of difficulty convincing the US to do. Hopefully there are some ideas that use tactics rather than needing all new counter weapons. But also lol that Iran is to Russia what the US is to Ukraine. Gonna be great for Russian arms exports once everyone sees they had to go beg the Iranians for something that works.
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