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Meanwhile if Niemann has talked to a lawyer (and he should), that lawyer will surely advise him to not sign off on what Carlsen has proposed under any circumstances. That's if such a blanket agreement not to sue is even legally enforceable, which I also have doubts about (how can you agree that someone can say something about you without knowing what it is?). I saw a video today in which Hikaru read that letter out loud and basically said "if Neimann won't agree, he's guilty" and even his own fan stream was chock full of people saying that's unfair.
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Sep 27, 2022 00:15
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Killing me because every news outlet is now calling this a direct accusation, but I don't think it is. All he says is he believe Niemann has cheated more than he admits to recently, and that his "perspective changed" in an unspecified way after their game. He still isn't accusing Niemann of cheating during either of their games specifically. It's straight up "Many people are saying."
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Sep 27, 2022 00:20
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Carlson knows that he won't, and yeah that's just dumb, poo poo stirring from Nakamura lol.theironjef posted:Killing me because every news outlet is now calling this a direct accusation, but I don't think it is. All he says is he believe Niemann has cheated more than he admits to recently, and that his "perspective changed" in an unspecified way after their game. He still isn't accusing Niemann of cheating during either of their games specifically. It's straight up "Many people are saying." Because anyone capable of putting two and two together realizes that this is as direct accusation of cheating that you are going to get, as anything more direct means you are extremely going to get sued. As good luck finding any actual proof, especially long afterwards. Dexo fucked around with this message at 00:28 on Sep 27, 2022 |
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Sep 27, 2022 00:24
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As someone who can't even mount a basic Indian Defense or grasp a king pawn checkmate, this is fascinating.
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Sep 27, 2022 01:40
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfPzUgzrOcQ Like you aren't going to find any smoking gun, because you'd have to catch him in the act, but yeah. Magnus might be wrong about Hans cheating, but this probably isn't him just being mad about losing. He's lost before, but has literally never done anything like this before.
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Sep 27, 2022 02:21
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I don't really know anything about chess but it seems like the biggest problem with the theory that hans cheated is that although everyone's acting like it's impossible that hans could have beat Magnus without cheating, Magnus just seems to have played extremely badly in that game. It would be a lot more convincing if Magnus played at his normal level and hans still beat him.
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Sep 27, 2022 05:34
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Dexo posted:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfPzUgzrOcQ that video is impressive. I really appreciate the commenter being careful about what this sort of analysis actually says and doesn't say... but I feel confident in drawing two conclusions: 1, Niemann has far too many 100% games to not be a cheater, but also 2, he didn't cheat against Magnus, who played a below average game on his own standards. It looks to me like Niemann is smart enough to only occasionally cheat, which nudges his long-term averages up without being easily detected. But getting a 100% correlation with a solver without using a solver over the course of a 30-45 move game is incredibly unlikely, and doing it like ten times in three years is basically impossible.
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Sep 27, 2022 07:21
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SageNytell posted:Not sure if this belongs here or the FATE thread, but given the subject matter I figured it belongs here. https://twitter.com/SeanNittner/status/1574437834785595398
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Sep 27, 2022 07:24
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Halloween Jack posted:As someone who can't even mount a basic Indian Defense or grasp a king pawn checkmate, this is fascinating. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ao9iOeK_jvU for anyone who does want to learn chess, I'd recommend this video from John Bartholomew as a starting point. It's certainly helped me a lot when I got really into chess back in, oh, 2016
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Sep 27, 2022 10:55
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I taught myself chess out of a book when I was about 11 and then taught my siblings and buddies so we could play. I should stress - I am not good at chess. I am as good as someone with roaring ADHD who learned chess out of a book. Even so when I was about 13, in the same month I played two (2) adult men separately. One was the parish priest at the youth centre and one was a friend of my mum's on his big swanky chess set. I won both games and neither man would ever play me again. Mum's friend in particular got *super* salty. I wasn't organised! I just lucked out and spotted something he didn't spot. I was a little girl for gently caress's sake. Anyway so that's why I gave up learning chess. Just wanted to have a grumble.
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Sep 27, 2022 12:29
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That latest tweet from Carlsen has already been added to the Scrubquotes twitter: https://twitter.com/ScrubQuotesX/status/1574537681480331264
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Sep 27, 2022 13:41
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gradenko_2000 posted:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ao9iOeK_jvU Thanks! I'm terrible at chess, but wouldn't mind improving a bit.
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Sep 27, 2022 15:07
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You literally cannot cheat at chess without being fed moves from an AI, which is impossible in this case because they have detection set up for any kind of transmission in the tournament area. Magnus is a loving scrub.
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Sep 27, 2022 15:26
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HopperUK posted:I taught myself chess out of a book when I was about 11 and then taught my siblings and buddies so we could play. I should stress - I am not good at chess. I am as good as someone with roaring ADHD who learned chess out of a book. I'm very sorry about your experience. The Shortest Path posted:You literally cannot cheat at chess without being fed moves from an AI, which is impossible in this case because they have detection set up for any kind of transmission in the tournament area. one theory I've heard is that he's lost a step since having had COVID
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Sep 27, 2022 15:27
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One of the judges blinked his moves in binary to him
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Sep 27, 2022 15:27
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The Shortest Path posted:You literally cannot cheat at chess without being fed moves from an AI, which is impossible in this case because they have detection set up for any kind of transmission in the tournament area. You literally can cheat without any electronic transmission in the tournament area. Look up Sebastien Feller 2010. And guess how much smaller high level compute has gotten between 2010 and 2022. It wouldn't even need to be that elaborate. It's extremely fair to think Hans didn't cheat or anything, I tend to lean towards not thinking he did against Magnus, but to say it'd be impossible is a wild statement. Dexo fucked around with this message at 15:38 on Sep 27, 2022 |
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Sep 27, 2022 15:36
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No electronic transmission in the playing area is accurate, if a bit misleading. Feller had an accomplice who would get an SMS message outside the playing area, then return to visual range of Feller and relay the suggestion via predetermined signals.
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Sep 27, 2022 16:09
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Just loving lol if their "no transmissions in the play area" policy can be defeated by someone with a phone who can freely move in and out of the play area
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Sep 27, 2022 16:14
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What's the smallest we can make a computer capable of running a high-end chess ai? No need for transmission if the whole machine is in the butt...
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Sep 27, 2022 16:17
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Also it may be good to understand that a cheating player doesn't need to be fed every move. Often a single decision leads to a string of more or less forced/required/obvious moves and countermoves, until the next important inflection point is reached. Making the correct move is called "accuracy" and high-level players will make the best move through the steps of these chains basically every time. It's typically because pieces are protected, and for example a player chooses to make an exchange that is being offered them, which leads to another exchange and another, because they spotted that after three exchanges they'll be able to take a fourth piece safely and be up by one piece; all of the moves in this sequence may be "the best moves" as identified by a solver but also trivially identified by a master. Sometimes (especially late game) it's just because there's a king chase and it's a sequence of checks to get the king to a safe square. Sometimes it's because one piece is being attacked, and as the opponent adds a second attacker, the only option is to add a second defender. That sort of thing. So if the player just waits at an inflection point, or can get a signal out to an accomplice in those spots, the accomplice feeds them the move the computer likes best and the "idea" of this move is likely to be or become apparent to the player quickly and they can then follow on with several accurate moves without help afterward. A cheater who is also a very good chess player could get from a typical high-level player's 65% or 70% correlation up to a 100% solver correlation in a long game by being fed like six moves or so throughout the game. As we've discussed the Sinquefield Cup has tight security; but it's a big-money, big-prestige tournament. Many significant and ranked tournaments, including international ones, are not as secure. It's possible that Niemann only cheats at tournaments with lax electronic security. Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 16:22 on Sep 27, 2022 |
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Sep 27, 2022 16:20
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https://www.reddit.com/r/chess/comments/xl1ufw/as_someone_with_intimate_knowledge_of_magic/ Tech today is just completely loving wild and hard to detect. Communication devices are so small nowadays it's trivial to beat the basic to slightly elevated security most of these events have. Like they aren't putting these people in faraday cages lol. To say it's literally impossible to cheat is just something that seems silly with how good computing and tech is in 2022.
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Sep 27, 2022 16:27
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Yeah my understanding, which is rudimentary, is that modern RF scanners don't actually require the device to be turned on and broadcasting, because they can use magnetic fields to induce a transmitter to respond measurably? But I have no idea if the chess security people are using that level of tech, or how much it costs.
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Sep 27, 2022 16:35
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The Shortest Path posted:You literally cannot cheat at chess without being fed moves from an AI, which is impossible in this case because they have detection set up for any kind of transmission in the tournament area. There's the classic move of moving a Rook diagonally and hope your opponent is too brain dead to notice
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Sep 27, 2022 17:32
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Also, performance enhancing drugs
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Sep 27, 2022 17:42
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No security is ever defeat-proof, it's just a matter of if someone can dedicate enough time/money/expertise towards defeating it. That said, I still think Carlson is being poo poo here. Either say you think Nieman's cheating or play on and don't say anything at all. None of this have your cake and eat it too.
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Sep 27, 2022 17:58
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Yeah Magnus is doing everything in the worst possible way. If he had even just led with this lawyer rear end statement rather than weeks of pussyfooting around it probably would have come off better. But also not really a clean way to do this that doesn't involve outright getting sued lol. Dexo fucked around with this message at 18:12 on Sep 27, 2022 |
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Sep 27, 2022 18:10
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It'd be funnier if he just called him a cheater and funnier if he got sued, so he should do that.
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Sep 27, 2022 18:39
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Also worth noting that the video linked earlier was really interesting, but some folks in the comments were saying the function she used isn't all that good and that several other GMs have multiple games that go to 100%. It seems like there's some aspect of the function that can create a lot of false positives. I'm not sure I completely understand the technical side so maybe it's just people being Internet idiots, but it is kind of a methodological issue that the video doesn't have that kind of detailed analysis of anyone else. The two big points of evidence are a hot streak of 5 tournaments plus the 7-8 100% games, but the points of comparison are nothing for the hot streak and only many-game averages for the 100% games, which dilutes the point for sure.
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Sep 27, 2022 18:47
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Today's episode of Opening Arguments deals with the WotC v. NuTSR lawsuit. The breakdown of the situation and the intellectual property law involved is pretty useful, although they get pretty gratuitous in describing all the horrible stuff in the leaked manuals that the lawsuit is based on near the end.
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Sep 27, 2022 19:16
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Dexo posted:https://www.reddit.com/r/chess/comments/xl1ufw/as_someone_with_intimate_knowledge_of_magic/ For all I know Hans is actually cheating but this all just seems way too coincidental. mystes fucked around with this message at 20:19 on Sep 27, 2022 |
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Sep 27, 2022 20:16
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mystes posted:It's not possible to say it's impossible to cheat. In fact maybe there are tons of people cheating. However, that is not necessarily the same as the question, "Is Hans, who is dumb enough to have repeatedly gotten caught cheating online, the single person who has suddenly figured out a way to cheat in otb chess that is subtle enough that it still hasn't managed to be detected directly but then managed to blow it by generally being dumb so his rise is extremely suspicious when coupled with his known history of online cheating? And then Magnus managed to suddenly catch it in a game where he coincidentally played the worst in years and withdrew purely out of his deep love the game and not because he didn't want to admit that he played really badly and lost to a much worse player?" Him getting caught cheating online wasn't him getting caught red-handed, it was their algorithm which has different criteria and a lower threshold than FIDE's triggering and them using their ability as just an independent online service to just remove him from their service under that suspicion.
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Sep 27, 2022 20:26
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New theory: Magnus knows Hans was cheating but won't say how because there was interference on his own cheating device which was coincidentally set to the same channel.
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Sep 27, 2022 22:08
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Could this be the truth behind the single-move resignation...?!?!
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Sep 27, 2022 22:32
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Bruceski posted:New theory:
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Sep 27, 2022 22:32
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Bruceski posted:New theory: The ol’ double vibrator maneuver
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Sep 28, 2022 02:57
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Mors Rattus posted:The ol’ double vibrator maneuver Oh hey, I saw "Requiem for a Dream" too.
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Sep 28, 2022 03:01
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DalaranJ posted:I just received a completed version of Thousand Arrows which was a project he was author on. So, James Mendez Hodes himself is still active, but I can’t speak to any other projects he’s on. I thought the hold up with this project wasn't writing but layout and sensitivity reading. I could be mistaking it for another project, but Thousand Arrows was long overdue.
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Sep 28, 2022 05:37
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It had been supposedly text complete since December 2020, then a claimed delay getting new writers for the 3 adventures included, and supposedly proofing on the 'final' final layout started in June 22.
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Sep 28, 2022 07:35
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Dexo posted:Yeah Magnus is doing everything in the worst possible way. American libel law is really lax. As long as Magnus argues he genuially believes Hans was cheating and can offer a fig leaf of evidence, that's usually good enough? This isn't the UK or Australia
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Sep 28, 2022 08:17
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He can also demonstrate that he genuinely believes he's correct, with the example where he refuses to play. In America, a surprising amount of law goes to what someone's dumb rear end thinks rather than the truth. Thought Plan B causes abortion? Deny it to your employees. Mistook your spouse for an intruder? Self-defense. It's why the Alex Jones trial has been so spectacular: they've been able to show that he didn't believe his own bullshit. If he'd been the dyed in the wool crackpot he portrays himself as (an idiot instead of a grifter) things would be going better for him. You can say "hell yes I think he's a cheat" in America. I think that would even fly in the UK because you're not tarnishing a reputation already known as a chess cheater.
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Sep 28, 2022 10:58
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