The housing market - Think it depends on the definition of underwater

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > The housing market - Think it depends on the definition of underwater

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The Oldest Man: Jul 28, 2003

Bar Ran Dun posted:

I know all that.

what�s stunning is that those other countries without that subsidy have housing inflation as bad or worse. how do you get those bubbles with such bad lending terms?

Global capital hunting for returns like a truffle pig mostly

# ? Sep 25, 2022 03:30

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# ? May 25, 2024 01:00

Spergin Morlock: Aug 8, 2009

sonatinas posted:

can any Canadians advise on how the hell people can afford homes there? it’s tough here in the states but I’m sure wages aren’t that much higher up there for homes 2x the value.

is it like in hot us markets where you either bought a house 20 years ago and your equity can buy a house or parent loans?

be old and buy decades ago before the prices go up

# ? Sep 25, 2022 04:50

Joey Steel: Jul 24, 2019

I just looked up the 'rent vs buy' calculator for the place my family is renting *right now* in the LA burbs (4k a month) and it'd never be worth buying the place at current prices/rates.

How is this even considered a good investment?

# ? Sep 26, 2022 01:49

YOLOsubmarine: Oct 19, 2004; When asked which Pokemon he evolved into, Kamara pauses.

"Motherfucking, what's that big dragon shit? That orange motherfucker. Charizard."

Joey Steel posted:

I just looked up the 'rent vs buy' calculator for the place my family is renting *right now* in the LA burbs (4k a month) and it'd never be worth buying the place at current prices/rates.

How is this even considered a good investment?

Because money you pay to a landlord is simply gone forever but money you pay to a mortgage may be returned to you when you sell the house. You might even make money on it.

# ? Sep 26, 2022 01:57

bawfuls: Oct 28, 2009

4 grand a month is probably on the cheaper side for a house in suburban LA these days, as insane as that sounds

# ? Sep 26, 2022 01:58

A Bakers Cousin: Dec 18, 2003; by vyelkin

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1m7WmKJZyQ

# ? Sep 26, 2022 02:30

Joey Steel: Jul 24, 2019

YOLOsubmarine posted:

Because money you pay to a landlord is simply gone forever but money you pay to a mortgage may be returned to you when you sell the house. You might even make money on it.

Even with that in the calculator, it's still not worth it. the extra 4 grand a month could be tossed into securities with a low yield and still come out in favor of renting. I can't imagine how this situation can last.

bawfuls posted:

4 grand a month is probably on the cheaper side for a house in suburban LA these days, as insane as that sounds

Which is kinda weird, it's a fairly nice place in Walnut, where the 'good schools' are for the area.

# ? Sep 26, 2022 04:17

Fozzy The Bear: Dec 11, 1999; Nothing much, watching the game, drinking a bud

Joey Steel posted:

I just looked up the 'rent vs buy' calculator for the place my family is renting *right now* in the LA burbs (4k a month) and it'd never be worth buying the place at current prices/rates.

How is this even considered a good investment?

Renting doesn't give them $1,000,000 when they move in 10 years.

# ? Sep 26, 2022 04:54

El Mero Mero: Oct 13, 2001

Joey Steel posted:

I just looked up the 'rent vs buy' calculator for the place my family is renting *right now* in the LA burbs (4k a month) and it'd never be worth buying the place at current prices/rates.

How is this even considered a good investment?

Depends a lot on the variables, but if it's not mortgaged (or minimally so) that can shift the numbers a lot. Broadly speaking though you're right. Compared to taking your money and buying stocks it is almost never a better deal deal to buy and you'd be better off just buying a REIT or stock portfolio.

Thing is, it's easier to get millions of dollars lent to you from a bank to buy a property than it is to buy stock.

On an individual level it's a totally academic exercise because most renters aren't taking the difference between their rent and what their mortgage would be otherwise and investing it. They're saving up for a down payment so that they can eliminate housing insecurity and unwanted power relationships in their personal lives (as well as gain class privileges).

There's an additional economic benefit in that you get the forced savings from paying down the mortgage + some appreciation + tax benefits + an asset you can leverage for other loans. That's not totally captured in the rent/buy calculators.

# ? Sep 26, 2022 07:58

joepinetree: Apr 5, 2012

Joey Steel posted:

Even with that in the calculator, it's still not worth it. the extra 4 grand a month could be tossed into securities with a low yield and still come out in favor of renting. I can't imagine how this situation can last.

Which is kinda weird, it's a fairly nice place in Walnut, where the 'good schools' are for the area.

These calculators have assumptions about real estate appreciation that are not always true. Nerdwallet's calculator, for example, is set to 3%. Probably reasonable in normal times in many markets, but certain not the case in LA.

# ? Sep 26, 2022 08:01

Blackhawk: Nov 15, 2004

Yeah in some ways I suppose a mortgage could be seen as a common and accessible form of financial leverage, or you could consider property to be a good thing to invest in during market downturns and plan to refinance later if you want to move the money into stocks.

Or you could consider property to be a thing you live in and you want the stability knowing there are fewer ways you could be kicked out onto the street based on somebody else's whim vs. renting, especially if you have kids or a pet.

# ? Sep 26, 2022 09:34

Nix Panicus: Feb 25, 2007

Does anyone know anything about the Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America? My wife is considering a position with them but can't work out if the results match up to the rhetoric

# ? Sep 26, 2022 11:11

BIG-DICK-BUTT-FUCK: Jan 26, 2016; by Fluffdaddy

YOLOsubmarine posted:

Because money you pay to a landlord is simply gone forever but money you pay to a mortgage may be returned to you when you sell the house. You might even make money on it.

Yup, also your mortgage payment stays constant and your bank cant decide to sell the place and kick you out like with a rental

renting has its pluses in the short term but it was stressful for me around lease renewal time every year to wonder "will she increase rent this year". Now that's been replaced with the stress of "will a major mechanical system poo poo the bed at an inopportune moment"

# ? Sep 26, 2022 12:10

BIG-DICK-BUTT-FUCK: Jan 26, 2016; by Fluffdaddy

Blackhawk posted:

Yeah in some ways I suppose a mortgage could be seen as a common and accessible form of financial leverage, or you could consider property to be a good thing to invest in during market downturns and plan to refinance later if you want to move the money into stocks.

Or you could consider property to be a thing you live in and you want the stability knowing there are fewer ways you could be kicked out onto the street based on somebody else's whim vs. renting, especially if you have kids or a pet.

yeah this. I assume my house will appreciate but if not whatever, i like living here and it was a good value at the time (and i still think it is!!)

# ? Sep 26, 2022 12:12

ProperGanderPusher: Jan 13, 2012

I�d still almost rather rent somewhere with solid tenants rights than own, which is basically impossible in America these days. Couldn�t you basically inherit rent controlled apartments in NYC back in the day? I remember reading about olds with unbelievably nice flats in Manhattan and apparently a good chunk of them were passed down from nonna?

# ? Sep 26, 2022 12:35

Nocturtle: Mar 17, 2007

I really like the rent vs buy calculators because they've always suggested to not buy a house and I've avoided a lot of yardwork as a result.

joepinetree posted:

These calculators have assumptions about real estate appreciation that are not always true. Nerdwallet's calculator, for example, is set to 3%. Probably reasonable in normal times in many markets, but certain not the case in LA.

A lot of them allow you to adjust the assumed real estate and stock appreciation rates. Obviously these can only be approximations given how much these varied over just the past few years.

El Mero Mero posted:

Depends a lot on the variables, but if it's not mortgaged (or minimally so) that can shift the numbers a lot. Broadly speaking though you're right. Compared to taking your money and buying stocks it is almost never a better deal deal to buy and you'd be better off just buying a REIT or stock portfolio.

Thing is, it's easier to get millions of dollars lent to you from a bank to buy a property than it is to buy stock.

Blackhawk posted:

Yeah in some ways I suppose a mortgage could be seen as a common and accessible form of financial leverage, or you could consider property to be a good thing to invest in during market downturns and plan to refinance later if you want to move the money into stocks.

Good points oh well it's academic now.

# ? Sep 26, 2022 12:55

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud: Apr 7, 2003

Joey Steel posted:

Even with that in the calculator, it's still not worth it. the extra 4 grand a month could be tossed into securities with a low yield and still come out in favor of renting. I can't imagine how this situation can last.

People need a place to live, oddly enough

# ? Sep 26, 2022 14:22

shrike82: Jun 11, 2005

the thing about discussing housing globally is that the US is one of the few markets where you can get a fixed long term mortgage

in most markets, the closest you can get to that is fixed for a couple years then floating

so rising rates is going to gently caress over non Americans mostly

# ? Sep 26, 2022 15:02

H.P. Hovercraft: Jan 12, 2004; one thing a computer can do that most humans can't is be sealed up in a cardboard box and sit in a warehouse; Slippery Tilde

here's commercial landlords bitching about wfh

New York City�s Empty Offices Reveal a Global Property Dilemma

The rise of remote work will hurt older buildings, leaving landlords in the lurch

some :qq:

highlights:

quote:

In some cases, companies are simply cutting back on space to reduce their real estate costs. Others are relocating to shiny new towers with top-of-the-line amenities to attract talent and employees who may be reluctant to leave the comforts of working from home. Left behind are older buildings outside of prime locations.

The US is likely to have a slower office-market recovery than Asia and Europe because it began the pandemic with a higher vacancy rate, and long-term demand is expected to drop around 10% or more, Barkham said. New York, America�s biggest office real estate market, is at the center of the issue.

A study this year by professors at Columbia University and New York University estimated that lower tenant demand because of remote work may cut 28%, or $456 billion, off the value of offices across the US. About 10% of that would be in New York City alone.

The implications of obsolete buildings stretch across the local economy. Empty offices have led to a cascade of shuttered restaurants and other street-level businesses that depended on daytime worker traffic. And falling building values mean less property-tax revenue for city coffers.

A strip on Manhattan�s Third Avenue, from 42nd to 59th streets, shows the problem of older properties in stark terms. While New York leasing demand has bounced back toward pre-pandemic levels, the corridor has 29% of office space available for tenants, nearly double the amount four years ago and above the city�s overall rate of 19%, according to research from brokerage firm Savills.

The area is clustered with buildings from the 1950s to 1980s, many of which haven�t been meaningfully upgraded in decades. The few that have been renovated struggle to compete with counterparts in tonier addresses on Park, Fifth and Madison avenues and new mega-developments on Manhattan�s far west side.

The Third Avenue buildings have become �leave-behind space� rather than the types of offices that attract world-class tenants, said Nick Farmakis, vice chairman at Savills.

There�s no easy fix for landlords, who rely on rental income to pay down debt. Some cities are exploring options to turn downtown offices to residential buildings: Calgary, for instance, has an incentive program for such redevelopments. While New York has had some conversions, the hefty costs and zoning and architectural restrictions make it a difficult proposition.

As cities try to recover from the pandemic, the towers along Third Avenue demonstrate the types of challenges faced by building owners in Manhattan and beyond.

quote:

The obvious solution to lower office demand in a city straining for affordable housing may seem to be converting the buildings into apartments. There�s precedent: After the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and the 2008 global financial crisis, many offices in lower Manhattan were turned into luxury condominiums or rental buildings.

But many of those downtown conversions took place in buildings from the late 19th to early 20th centuries, which had smaller floor plates and better light, making them more attractive for housing units. In contrast, the struggling towers across Midtown are largely 1950s to 1980s offices, with giant, dark floors that are far harder to convert.

Zoning changes and subsidies also gave developers incentives to build thousands of apartments downtown post-9/11. In Midtown, there are currently no financial incentives for developers to make the costly renovations, and many offices aren�t eligible for residential zoning.

�Unless we see the level of private/public partnership that we saw post-9/11 in downtown Manhattan to help spur office-to-residential conversion, it�s not impossible, but it�s much harder to pencil out,� Iger said.

quote:

But the longer-term shifts in work habits still loom, and it matters to more than just building owners. New York, like other cities, relies heavily on property taxes to fund schools, police and firefighters, as well as other services. Property taxes are the biggest source of revenue for the city, delivering about $1 out of every $3 taken in. And offices account for about a fifth of that.

Before the pandemic, the levies had climbed by about 6% a year on average, driven by rising property values. That helped finance new programs and services, as well as keep up with rising labor costs, said Ana Champeny, the vice president for research at the Citizens Budget Commission, a nonpartisan budget watchdog and research firm.

Manhattan�s major office districts were no exception, generating steadily more revenue. But, in the fiscal year that ended June 30, the first to take into account the impact the pandemic had on real estate, tax levies from those areas declined by 11% to $5.24 billion.

Tax bills for the current year suggest a slight rebound in revenue from office buildings citywide, but the recovery could take years to play out, especially if tenant demand remains depressed. New York also raises almost $1 billion annually from a tax on large commercial leases, which could fall if demand from big tenants like law and financial-services firms remains soft, said Champeny. Office use also has ripple effects on other important parts of the economy, from the transit system to retail and hotels.

�It�s still early to tell what the structural change will be in both the economy and working and commuting,� she said. �But clearly, the city is facing some short-term challenges.�

give us money also go back to the office to support downtown lunch places also you can't afford a house no we can't build more

# ? Sep 26, 2022 20:39

MickeyFinn: May 8, 2007; Biggie Smalls and Junior Mafia some mark ass bitches

H.P. Hovercraft posted:

here's commercial landlords bitching about wfh

New York City�s Empty Offices Reveal a Global Property Dilemma

The rise of remote work will hurt older buildings, leaving landlords in the lurch

some highlights:

Boy howdy, that creative destruction sure is great when it is coming for other people's incomes and not my own.

# ? Sep 26, 2022 21:02

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud: Apr 7, 2003

No investment guarantees a return regardless of market conditions, except mine!

# ? Sep 26, 2022 21:06

iCe-CuBe.: Jun 9, 2011

Noooooo STOP BUying houses you really cant comprehend how much money you spend on repairs......... like , what if your fridge breaks? Thats why landlords exist. They get free repairs, for free, and can then give you a taste of that power in exchange for rent. Seems like a pretty useful service to me.

# ? Sep 26, 2022 22:03

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud: Apr 7, 2003

iCe-CuBe. posted:

Noooooo STOP BUying houses you really cant comprehend how much money you spend on repairs......... like , what if your fridge breaks? Thats why landlords exist. They get free repairs, for free, and can then give you a taste of that power in exchange for rent. Seems like a pretty useful service to me.

the new thing in leases is apparently requiring tenants to pay for new appliances and poo poo.

Since your refrigerator has a finite life, if you're the unlucky tenant who's occupying the unit when it breaks, gg, you just bought the landlord a new refrigerator. There was a refrigerator in the unit when you moved in, after all, even if it was five years outside of it's operational life.

# ? Sep 27, 2022 15:28

CRUSTY MINGE: Mar 30, 2011; Peggy Hill
Foot Connoisseur

God drat some of you are getting hosed on rent.

Gonna go hug the manager of the non-profit ran property I'm at since my rent only went up $50 this year and will only go up $50 next year.

# ? Sep 27, 2022 15:50

indigi: Jul 20, 2004; ^{how can we not talk about family

when family's all that we got?}

you are still getting hosed on rent, you just appreciate it for some reason

# ? Sep 27, 2022 15:51

CRUSTY MINGE: Mar 30, 2011; Peggy Hill
Foot Connoisseur

indigi posted:

you are still getting hosed on rent, you just appreciate it for some reason

Yeah, I appreciate that it's a 2 bedroom for less than $1k/mo and they pay the gas bill because we have radiant floor heat fed by a boiler.

Even after next year's hike it will still be under $1k/mo.

So yeah, kinda getting hosed but I don't pay gas, water, trash, etc separately.

# ? Sep 27, 2022 15:54

Ornery and Hornery: Oct 22, 2020

I would like a two bed for $1k

I would like housing

# ? Sep 27, 2022 15:58

CRUSTY MINGE: Mar 30, 2011; Peggy Hill
Foot Connoisseur

The same nonprofit that runs my apartment complex runs another with 1beds for $750/mo.

But you've got to live out here 90 minutes from an interstate and 2 hours from a city. Works for me, definitely not for everyone though.

# ? Sep 27, 2022 16:01

AnimeIsTrash: Jun 30, 2018

rents should be more expensive especially if you live in a major city

# ? Sep 27, 2022 16:03

CRUSTY MINGE: Mar 30, 2011; Peggy Hill
Foot Connoisseur

Would you like a $100k house on 40 acres that needs minimum $50k of work?

There's no grid power out there, internet is transmitter, and the well water smells like sulfur.

E: also lots of coyotes.

# ? Sep 27, 2022 16:05

Thesaurus: Oct 3, 2004

CRUSTY MINGE posted:

Would you like a $100k house on 40 acres that needs minimum $50k of work?

There's no grid power out there, internet is transmitter, and the well water smells like sulfur.

E: also lots of coyotes.

don't you live out in the middle of the high plains desert wastes?

how do you work out there?

# ? Sep 27, 2022 16:16

External Organs: Mar 3, 2006; One time i prank called a bear buildin workshop and said I wanted my mamaws ashes put in a teddy from where she loved them things so well... The woman on the phone did not skip a beat. She just said, "Brang her on down here. We've did it before."

Thesaurus posted:

don't you live out in the middle of the high plains desert wastes?

how do you work out there?

He's a coyote hunter

# ? Sep 27, 2022 16:20

A Bakers Cousin: Dec 18, 2003; by vyelkin

Thesaurus posted:

don't you live out in the middle of the high plains desert wastes?

how do you work out there?

Someone has to make meth

# ? Sep 27, 2022 17:07

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

AnimeIsTrash posted:

rents should be more expensive especially if you live in a major city

more expensive than they are currently or more expensive than rural areas

# ? Sep 27, 2022 17:09

CRUSTY MINGE: Mar 30, 2011; Peggy Hill
Foot Connoisseur

Thesaurus posted:

don't you live out in the middle of the high plains desert wastes?

how do you work out there?

Southern Colorado, San Luis Valley.

There are jobs, and there's fiber around. If you WFH, it's cheap. There are likely more cows than people here, but we have a hospital, small university, a walmart, kroger, safeway, walgreens, fast food, etc, just limited selections. Schools are hiring, everyone is hiring.

There's a house at the north end of the valley that's just 2 sheds butted together and brought up to code for living in. $90k on an acre and change. That's pretty remote. Like there might be a dollar general and gas station in 15 minutes drive.

Also it likes to dip to the -30s in the winter nights, but the entire valley is up for Dark Sky International certification. Gives you an idea of how empty it is out here.

A Bakers Cousin posted:

Someone has to make meth

That was one of my cousins in a rural Illinois county. I went the weed route for a while.

CRUSTY MINGE has issued a correction as of 17:16 on Sep 27, 2022

# ? Sep 27, 2022 17:14

Demon Of The Fall: May 1, 2004; Nap Ghost

being able to see stars again for the first time at night in like my whole life is pretty awesome

# ? Sep 27, 2022 17:23

CRUSTY MINGE: Mar 30, 2011; Peggy Hill
Foot Connoisseur

Probably should have said beforehand, the valley is a weird loving place. Linda Moulton Howe (Ancient Aliens) got her big break in the 70s reporting animal mutilations out here. As such, there's a big UFO community vibe. Lots of people living in 50 year old trailers miles away from town. A lot of alternative religion types out in Crestone. There's an alligator preserve. The great sand dunes. The San Juans and Sangre de Cristos. Wetlands, farms, hot springs (one with clothing optional days), forests and a desert.

Land tends to be cheap here because of the climate, location, and how useless a lot of it is in the central part of the valley. You can get land here for less than $1k/acre in some parts, but for $2k/acre you get into decent area where water is less than 10 feet down right now.

Most of the people I've met here are fine. Small town neighborly vibe with a lot, but we have our fair share of meth and fentanyl people. The cold winters drive a lot of people away.

# ? Sep 27, 2022 17:37

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud: Apr 7, 2003

CRUSTY MINGE posted:

Probably should have said beforehand, the valley is a weird loving place. Linda Moulton Howe (Ancient Aliens) got her big break in the 70s reporting animal mutilations out here. As such, there's a big UFO community vibe. Lots of people living in 50 year old trailers miles away from town. A lot of alternative religion types out in Crestone. There's an alligator preserve. The great sand dunes. The San Juans and Sangre de Cristos. Wetlands, farms, hot springs (one with clothing optional days), forests and a desert.

Land tends to be cheap here because of the climate, location, and how useless a lot of it is in the central part of the valley. You can get land here for less than $1k/acre in some parts, but for $2k/acre you get into decent area where water is less than 10 feet down right now.

Most of the people I've met here are fine. Small town neighborly vibe with a lot, but we have our fair share of meth and fentanyl people. The cold winters drive a lot of people away.

Looks like there's a Dairy Queen AND a Sonic there

# ? Sep 27, 2022 17:38

HashtagGirlboss: Jan 4, 2005

Demon Of The Fall posted:

being able to see stars again for the first time at night in like my whole life is pretty awesome

It�s pretty amazing when you get somewhere dark and clear enough to see the whole spread. Just phenomenal. When I went to Hawaii�s big island and transversed the saddle road at 1am I couldn�t help but just stop on the side of the road and stare. It really is like the high quality night sky photos when you�re somewhere like that

# ? Sep 27, 2022 17:40

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# ? May 25, 2024 01:00

euphronius: Feb 18, 2009

this is what brick is supposed to look like

no problems there

# ? Sep 27, 2022 17:40

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > The housing market - Think it depends on the definition of underwater

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