|
Mister Facetious posted:Could someone please explain to me why "plausible deniability" just does not exist in the Russian Playbook? Because they haven't needed it in a long time. They do something, it's obvious it's them, they deny it for a while, then later make threats about how they'll do it again. What's the world going to do about it? If they catch flak for it, it's useful internal propaganda to continue the narrative that the West hate Russia. If they don't, it's useful propaganda that the West is weak, and only Russia is strong and willing to do what is required. They've undergone sanctions in some form or other before and have always skated through. If Russia's initial projection of a couple days of war before installing a puppet was correct, Europe and Russia would probably be approaching some form of business as usual when it comes to some parts of the economy.
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 21:39
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 13, 2024 07:20 |
|
|
First they bomb their own city, then they bomb their prison, then they bomb their own nuclear plant, and now they are bombing their own pipeline, does the depravity of Russia know no bounds? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 21:41
|
|
|
Ynglaur posted:Honest question: has the Ukrainian General Staff been mostly accurate? I haven't followed and validated them closely enough to know one way or the other. I have never found them to outright tell falsehoods as they understand it. Although they are known to lie through omission.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 21:42
|
|
|
Mister Facetious posted:Could someone please explain to me why "plausible deniability" just does not exist in the Russian Playbook? Because like the "little green men" that started this whole thing off, the point is to do something so that everyone knows you've done it but you've thrown just enough chaff in the air and been intimidating enough that they can't take the full action against you. It's a little wild man diplomacy and a little "I'm not touching your face". See also Russia's love of frozen conflicts.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 21:43
|
|
|
fez_machine posted:Because like the "little green men" that started this whole thing off, the point is to do something so that everyone knows you've done it but you've thrown just enough chaff in the air and been intimidating enough that they can't take the full action against you. Theories like this are pretty compelling until you end up in a situation like Ukraine. Russia was pulling stuff like this when it worked, and then it stopped working and they kept going. When dumb lies work, either you're dumb or a genius. When they don't work and you keep doing them, it kinda takes the genius option off the table.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 21:48
|
|
|
fez_machine posted:Because like the "little green men" that started this whole thing off, the point is to do something so that everyone knows you've done it but you've thrown just enough chaff in the air and been intimidating enough that they can't take the full action against you. The next obvious question then is, why loving do it? No one buys it, you're gonna do what you were doing anyway, and you operate the equivalent of a mafia state where the rules are made up and changed at will.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 21:50
|
|
|
Pook Good Mook posted:The next obvious question then is, why loving do it? No one buys it, you're gonna do what you were doing anyway, and you operate the equivalent of a mafia state where the rules are made up and changed at will. I think it might be, or they feel that it is, necessary to sell it to the actual russian population. See! They all wanted to join and are happy to be rid of the nazi Zelensky. We certainly didn't do a bad imperialism and just steal land and people, we're not Amerikkka
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 21:57
|
|
|
Neurolimal posted:First they bomb their own city, then they bomb their prison, then they bomb their own nuclear plant, and now they are bombing their own pipeline, does the depravity of Russia know no bounds? Oh right... the whole bombing the Nuclear plant that they entirely control, like not even vaguely contested at this moment. Anyone doubting why Russia would blow up their own pipeline please recall that this is the same country that at this moment has loaded up an active nuclear power plant with military equipment and has been shelling it at random over the last few months. Even though an accident there would drain radioactive waste directly into Crimea. This is a man and a government that doesn't even care about 2023, they care about "winning" and blackmail right now.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 22:02
|
|
|
mobby_6kl posted:I think it might be, or they feel that it is, necessary to sell it to the actual russian population. See! They all wanted to join and are happy to be rid of the nazi Zelensky. We certainly didn't do a bad imperialism and just steal land and people, we're not Amerikkka That would be plausible if they had prepped this for the first few weeks and was done before the mobilization. It's all so hodgepodge and stupid.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 22:02
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:I wouldn’t suggest taking them as the sole source for anything - it’s not in their professional interest to share accurate information in a timely fashion. I agree. I'm asking if anyone itt has a sense of how accurate they have been thus far. "Past performance does not guarantee future performance" certainly applies, of course.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 22:14
|
|
|
Rybar appears to disagree with WarGonzo that AFU have taken Kolodyazi, if my machine translation is accurate https://t.me/rybar/39459
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 22:16
|
|
|
Ynglaur posted:I agree. I'm asking if anyone itt has a sense of how accurate they have been thus far. "Past performance does not guarantee future performance" certainly applies, of course. What they tell you is generally accurate, given the fog of war and necessity of estimates. They've shared remarkably detailed intelligence of what's going on in Russia that often was confirmed later. What they choose not to tell you matters, though. And the way they present what they do is obviously intended to paint the picture they want you to see.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 22:19
|
|
|
They had money left over from printing the other ones and just decided to have fun with it
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 22:21
|
|
|
Chalks posted:Lots of maps at the moment agree on one thing: Russia is in serious trouble in Lyman Autocrats ordering their generals to not retreat under any circumstances usually works well Somebody fucked around with this message at 23:01 on Sep 27, 2022 |
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 22:22
|
|
tweet is safe, but don't scroll up
|
Patrocclesiastes posted:Pretty telling which parties are pushing the USA did it narrative truly https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/1574813329578758144 (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 22:26
|
|
|
Another motive for Russia to sabotage the pipeline could be to have something newsworthy to divert attention from further Ukrainian gains/Putin's mobilization debacle, burying it under a mass of pointless speculation and Clancychatting. Judging by this thread at least. 
Pizdec fucked around with this message at 22:35 on Sep 27, 2022 |
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 22:28
|
|
|
smug n stuff posted:Rybar appears to disagree with WarGonzo that AFU have taken Kolodyazi, if my machine translation is accurate https://t.me/rybar/39459 Looks like he's saying Kolodyazi got attacked from 3 sides which indicates Ukraine are further south than most of the maps show.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 22:29
|
|
|
My sources say the death penalty, for espionage, being considered for Vladimir Putin. I am pro-life and take no pleasure in reporting this. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 22:30
|
|
|
MikeC posted:I have never found them to outright tell falsehoods as they understand it. Although they are known to lie through omission. They were solidly more on the ghost of kiev end of the spectrum early on, since they've been having more operational success they've become generally pretty accurate, albeit as cinci said, they aren't breaking any news about troop movements, nor is everything presented with necessarily the full context. Also depends what part of them is being discussed, the briefings and official statements are pretty grounded in reality but they also do some shitposty PR stuff that is... shitposty PR stuff. The operational details they post 'eg x town was fought over, push was repelled in y town, missiles hitting w city' pretty much all matches up with independent reports. The only exception is when there's a new push or offensive shaping up and they tend not to give a lot of details beyond that something happened. basically yeah I wouldn't take them as a solitary source on stuff, but most of what they post ends up checking out. also there's documentation now of POWs who have their mobilization papers from the 21st, so I guess that's settled
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 22:31
|
|
|
My favorite detail is the square emblem "seal", meticulously cut out from an inkjet printout and pasted on with craft glue. Clearly they had their best 10-year-olds on the job!
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 22:36
|
|
|
man they got louisemench and partisangirl arguing that the US did it? now I'm actually convinced it was Russia that blew them
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 22:38
|
|
|
Herstory Begins Now posted:also there's documentation now of POWs who have their mobilization papers from the 21st, so I guess that's settled That was a pretty fast turnaround on the question of how russia would play this out. Yet again, you couldn't rule out putin doing something simply because it would be horribly stupid and immensely cruel...
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 22:46
|
|
|
Ynglaur posted:I agree. I'm asking if anyone itt has a sense of how accurate they have been thus far. "Past performance does not guarantee future performance" certainly applies, of course. I agree with MikeC in that regard: MikeC posted:I have never found them to outright tell falsehoods as they understand it. Although they are known to lie through omission. They won’t mention bad things “on time”, and they sometimes fool around with the day’s events, to egg on Russian observers, but their reports that describe things like 2-3 days ago are adequate enough, bar the patriotic numbers inflation that’s bound to be happening. Much better than RU MoD’s “we’ve shot down 70 of Ukraine’s 20 Bayraktars” at any rate.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 22:50
|
|
|
Did anyone yet point out the timing of this pipeline thing? It could be an attempt to draw foreign attention away from the "referendums". If so, I'd say it was a successful plan.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 22:56
|
|
|
smug n stuff posted:Rybar appears to disagree with WarGonzo that AFU have taken Kolodyazi, if my machine translation is accurate https://t.me/rybar/39459 kemikalkadet posted:Looks like he's saying Kolodyazi got attacked from 3 sides which indicates Ukraine are further south than most of the maps show. He says that joint 20th GCAA and volunteers forces fought off a simultaneous Ukrainian assault on Kolodyazi from 3 directions. Considering that there's a river behind it, this would imply that the area north of Lyman is overrun. 
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 22:57
|
|
|
d64 posted:Did anyone yet point out the timing of this pipeline thing? It could be an attempt to draw foreign attention away from the "referendums". If so, I'd say it was a successful plan. Nah, unlike the media, governments actually can and do think and breathe at the same time. The US will respond when Russia does what we all expect and officially annexes the territories within the next few days. If Russia blew up these pipelines that will only give the US more fodder to back up whatever the planned response is.
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 23:00
|
|
|
cinci zoo sniper posted:He says that joint 20th GCAA and volunteers forces fought off a simultaneous Ukrainian assault on Kolodyazi from 3 directions. Considering that there's a river behind it, this would imply that the area north of Lyman is overrun. There is apparently footage from Zelena Dolyna at least: https://mobile.twitter.com/auditor_ya/status/1574878753159008256
|
|
#
?
Sep 27, 2022 23:03
|
|
|
fez_machine posted:Because like the "little green men" that started this whole thing off, the point is to do something so that everyone knows you've done it but you've thrown just enough chaff in the air and been intimidating enough that they can't take the full action against you. Is there some error in translation why Russia doesn't know they're coming off as utterly incompetent to anyone that isn't a Tucker Carlson viewer/neo nazi?
|
|
#
?
Sep 28, 2022 00:35
|
|
|
Mister Facetious posted:Is there some error in translation why Russia doesn't know they're coming off as utterly incompetent to anyone that isn't a Tucker Carlson viewer/neo nazi? No, it’s just intentional “well, what you’re going to do about it” behaviour.
|
|
#
?
Sep 28, 2022 00:39
|
|
|
Mister Facetious posted:Is there some error in translation why Russia doesn't know they're coming off as utterly incompetent to anyone that isn't a Tucker Carlson viewer/neo nazi? No, because just about every right/far-right wing party is following some form of this playbook. Russia's mask fell off years before, and they've been way more effective in turning rhetoric into results, but the embrace of lies, "alternative facts" and disregard for law or democracy is very much the same as Trump's admin. There's no translation issue, this is what fascism looks like. It's a built in feature.
|
|
#
?
Sep 28, 2022 00:42
|
|
|
P (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Sep 28, 2022 00:52
|
|
|
Agreed. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Sep 28, 2022 01:12
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/kofmanmichael/status/1574906007414767619 https://twitter.com/markets/status/1574656461287919616
|
|
#
?
Sep 28, 2022 01:18
|
|
|
Pook Good Mook posted:The next obvious question then is, why loving do it? No one buys it, you're gonna do what you were doing anyway, and you operate the equivalent of a mafia state where the rules are made up and changed at will. Because it works and had worked right up until the current war. I can't think of an Russia incited action in this style from the past decade or so that hasn't had a big upside for Putin. Even in the current war, if the decapitation strike had worked and the Ukrainian government was replaced by stooges, what could NATO and the EU have done? Funded partisans? Maybe. But otherwise I'd guess there'd be far less political will to divest from Russian gas and keep hard sanctions long term. In my estimation, very little that'd effect Putin materially comparable to the benefits of having a quisling Ukraine.
|
|
#
?
Sep 28, 2022 02:11
|
|
|
An interesting write up: https://twitter.com/samagreene/status/1574792146720374784 (Probably better in article form, unless you have a thing for 60-tweet threads)
|
|
#
?
Sep 28, 2022 02:20
|
|
|
Honestly, though the entire situation is poo poo I think if I were a conscript in that situation I'd appreciate that at least I got a commander who isn't trying to polish the turd we're being fed and who seems to quietly agree that it's all bullshit even if he's not quite saying it outright. It's obviously not ideal but it's better than getting a screamer in command or someone trying to pretend everything is fine.
|
|
#
?
Sep 28, 2022 02:25
|
|
|
OddObserver posted:An interesting write up:
|
|
#
?
Sep 28, 2022 02:37
|
|
|
Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.   
|
|
#
?
Sep 28, 2022 04:54
|
|
|
This is just someone recording their speech and applying echo filter to it, right?
|
|
#
?
Sep 28, 2022 05:32
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 13, 2024 07:20 |
|
|
GreyjoyBastard posted:I know this is probably a technical term but I'm instead going to assume you're talking about the farm animal Last page, but regularly pigging usually helps to mitigate the risk of corrosion, but once corrosion has set in, I'm not sure that a pig can really address it thoroughly. It could be used to clean the pipeline though.
|
|
#
?
Sep 28, 2022 06:15
|
|
