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Irony Be My Shield posted:Given that Russia uses a high number of Russians in an area as a pretext to invade I can understand not wanting to allow a high number of Russians into your country. This is a pretty enticing statement that makes it easier to deny those trying to leave, but the way things look like right now makes the premise unreasonable.
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Sep 30, 2022 03:16
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https://twitter.com/andrew__roth/status/1575503205504790528
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Sep 30, 2022 03:45
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spankmeister posted:https://twitter.com/waragainstputin/status/1575495378556059654 Did this dude find the old MREs where they used to provide amphetamine? Because that looks like amphetamine.
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Sep 30, 2022 03:45
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How much would it cost to buy out huge parts of the russian economy? They throw around numbers and the sum is less than the entire US MIC. For a year.
downout fucked around with this message at 04:30 on Sep 30, 2022 |
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Sep 30, 2022 04:26
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downout posted:How much would it cost to buy out huge parts of the russian economy? They throw around numbers and the sum is less than the entire US MIC. For a year. You can buy up whatever you want, but if you don't do what Putin and his cronies require you to do you'll find your assets nationalised or yourself having fallen out of a window.
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Sep 30, 2022 04:39
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Technical question about tactical nukes: It's been stated in this thread before that tactical nukes can't and won't make a difference on the ground, for reasons I'm slightly fuzzy about - Ukrainian force concentrations not being big enough to get seriously impacted by the kind of yields tactical nukes use, I guess? But would tactical nukes have a chilling effect on morale and planning? On the Ukrainian side, wouldn't it become more difficult to achieve the mass necessary for a successful offensive if you have to worry about Putin deleting any such masses once detected? And on the ground, while artillery and airstrikes are already kinda impersonal I have to imagine the prospect of your entire formation getting wiped out in a single nearly unescapable blast isn't exactly great for morale, though I suspect that'll lead more to mental health issues than outright surrender or desertion given likely prospects under Putin. Or are tactical nukes really so small in yield as to not have the effects I'm describing? For that matter, how WOULD Russian tactical nukes be delivered, anyways? Are they going to come in a form that might conceivably be shot down? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 30, 2022 04:55
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Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.   
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Sep 30, 2022 04:56
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Tomn posted:Technical question about tactical nukes: It's been stated in this thread before that tactical nukes can't and won't make a difference on the ground, for reasons I'm slightly fuzzy about - Ukrainian force concentrations not being big enough to get seriously impacted by the kind of yields tactical nukes use, I guess? But would tactical nukes have a chilling effect on morale and planning? On the Ukrainian side, wouldn't it become more difficult to achieve the mass necessary for a successful offensive if you have to worry about Putin deleting any such masses once detected? And on the ground, while artillery and airstrikes are already kinda impersonal I have to imagine the prospect of your entire formation getting wiped out in a single nearly unescapable blast isn't exactly great for morale, though I suspect that'll lead more to mental health issues than outright surrender or desertion given likely prospects under Putin. Or are tactical nukes really so small in yield as to not have the effects I'm describing? Take it here.
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Sep 30, 2022 04:58
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Dapper_Swindler posted:if it collapses tonight or the day of putins sham absorbsition. i am curious how badly putin will take it. i am sure the uber nationalists won't take it well judging by the telegram bursts. Breaking News: Ukraine invades Russian region and occupies mayor city.
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Sep 30, 2022 07:06
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While it's strategically important, it would be a stretch to call Lyman a major city.
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Sep 30, 2022 07:13
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Well, it would also be a stretch to call it Russian. 
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Sep 30, 2022 07:18
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Dapper_Swindler posted:if it collapses tonight or the day of putins sham absorbsition. i am curious how badly putin will take it. i am sure the uber nationalists won't take it well judging by the telegram bursts.
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Sep 30, 2022 07:20
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cant cook creole bream posted:Well, it would also be a stretch to call it Russian. Yes, especially since it is in Kharkiv province and thus not even in Russia by Putin’s stupid current psychosis. E: never mind, two cities called Lyman. The fighting one currently is the one in Donetsk. Need more creativity with your city names Ukraine, not a Springfield in every province. I thought the Donets river was the state boundary. I was just reading a BBC article about Komyshuvakha and there are like five cities in Ukraine with that same name. Ukraine truly is the North America of naming cities. Saladman fucked around with this message at 07:48 on Sep 30, 2022 |
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Sep 30, 2022 07:21
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Yea it's a town of like 50k but if you look at a satellite photo you'll see why it's so important. Like half the city is a rail yard
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Sep 30, 2022 07:22
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^^^I don't think the railyard is of much significance since Russia lost the major rail hub further north. The importance of it is it blocked Ukraine from pushing further into occupied territory and gave Russia time to solidify a new front line.Tomn posted:Technical question about tactical nukes: It's been stated in this thread before that tactical nukes can't and won't make a difference on the ground, for reasons I'm slightly fuzzy about - Ukrainian force concentrations not being big enough to get seriously impacted by the kind of yields tactical nukes use, I guess? But would tactical nukes have a chilling effect on morale and planning? On the Ukrainian side, wouldn't it become more difficult to achieve the mass necessary for a successful offensive if you have to worry about Putin deleting any such masses once detected? And on the ground, while artillery and airstrikes are already kinda impersonal I have to imagine the prospect of your entire formation getting wiped out in a single nearly unescapable blast isn't exactly great for morale, though I suspect that'll lead more to mental health issues than outright surrender or desertion given likely prospects under Putin. Or are tactical nukes really so small in yield as to not have the effects I'm describing? A tactical nuke might destroy everything within a kilometer or so of the blast, it would not be great to be inside that zone but Ukrainian forces are not sitting in tight square kilometer concentrations and are actually spread out over hundreds of kilometers of front line. It would certainly have an impact on morale, it's arguably the one thing Russia has that Ukraine cannot retaliate or defend against. Also once the door is opened to one nuke being used there's the possibility of more if Ukraine doesn't give in to Russia demands. They would probably be delivered via one of their cruise missiles or an Iskander ballistic missile if Russia does decide to go down that path. I suspect that the private conversations the US is having with Russia behind the scenes are along the lines of the risk to Russia if they use those weapons is far far greater than the risk they face if they keep it conventional. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) gay picnic defence fucked around with this message at 07:29 on Sep 30, 2022 |
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Sep 30, 2022 07:26
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Tomn posted:Nuke chat Being able to terror bomb in an exciting new way would not outweigh the the problems caused by a) further reminding the Ukrainians of the existential nature of the conflict b) forcing an escalation (in terms of equipment supplies, not boots on the ground) from the US, which could not allow itself be seen as backing down from Russian escalation, and c) alienating their remaining allies who would not want to be seen picking sides in a potential nuclear war. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 30, 2022 07:28
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More than anything, those testimonials are evidence of complete degeneration in russian elites. Instead of businessmen (who should make rational decisions to protect their business) and politicians (who should make decisions somewhat reflecting the will of tgeir electorate) it is all worthless Administrators that demonstrate the will of bank office clerk at best, punching hours and going home to drink
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Sep 30, 2022 07:56
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Irony Be My Shield posted:Given that Russia uses a high number of Russians in an area as a pretext to invade I can understand not wanting to allow a high number of Russians into your country. this is a fairly gross take on refugees
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Sep 30, 2022 09:21
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I thought it was a pretty funny joke.
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Sep 30, 2022 09:24
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John F Bennett posted:I thought it was a pretty funny joke. It would be a 'joke' if right wingers weren't already using that exact rationale to close border.
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Sep 30, 2022 09:26
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Very much  -- mass civilian death from terror bombinghttps://mobile.twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1575763043014819848
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Sep 30, 2022 09:37
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The news are all alight with reporting on Russian shelling of a civilian convoy trying to leave Zaporizhzhia.
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Sep 30, 2022 09:55
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Yeah, lots of dead civilians including children in the twitter feeds this morning. Also a picture of a family dog sitting in the rubble of their house, the only survivor. That one really got me this morning 
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Sep 30, 2022 10:02
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NO gently caress YOU DAD posted:Nukes aren't going to fly because there's no scenario where that would help Putin. Plus, as a tactical nuke is supposed to target troops not civilians, and the frontline where the troops are at is in what Putin just fraudulently declared is Russian territory, would he really want to be known that the guy who nuked Russia? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 30, 2022 10:06
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Pleasant Friend posted:Plus, as a tactical nuke is supposed to target troops not civilians, and the frontline where the troops are at is in what Putin just fraudulently declared is Russian territory, would he really want to be known that the guy who nuked Russia? Why keep it at a tactical weapon though? Might as well use strategic weapons on all Ukrainian cities. What exactly could the West do any different? Nothing. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 30, 2022 10:19
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Comstar posted:Why keep it at a tactical weapon though? Might as well use strategic weapons on all Ukrainian cities. not WW3 vs WW3. And tac nukes are not only for troop concentrations. There are other military targets (airbases) that would be a logical/probable target. It has been said by others who know a lot more than me that Russia would likely test a nuke(s) as a final warning before actually using one on Ukraine. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Dick Ripple fucked around with this message at 10:23 on Sep 30, 2022 |
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Sep 30, 2022 10:19
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Pleasant Friend posted:Plus, as a tactical nuke is supposed to target troops not civilians, and the frontline where the troops are at is in what Putin just fraudulently declared is Russian territory, would he really want to be known that the guy who nuked Russia? I don't think a significant number of people in Russia actually believe the annexation actually makes those territories part of Russia so I don't think they'll be pissed off with him for nuking 'Russia'. The annexation is more likely to be either a legal fiction to give him more freedom to send mobilised troops there or deliberate escalation in the hope Ukraine/the west will back down. If the war gets to the point where Putin feels nukes are the least worst option I think those regions will be zero chance of remaining in Russian hands were the war to continue on that path anyway, so it's probably moot.
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Sep 30, 2022 10:21
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Yeah, the "annexation" is a charade, nobody in Russia cares about the territories other than as people and resources to exploit for the elite gain. I mean, they don't even care about the previously occupied Donetsk and Luhansk territories, considering they happily depopulated and destroyed them. Or about any of the ethnic republics. Or anything that isn't ethnically Russian and from the correct parts of Russia, in general.
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Sep 30, 2022 10:26
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Unsurprisingly between political pressure and questions of quality Russian arms sales future looks bleak. Indonesia has just announced they will decommission 5 Su-27 and 11 SU-30 they operate now. Those will be replaced with Rafale in short term and probably by new Korean gen 5 design later on. It would be funny if US has appeared with a bag full of $ to buy those for Ukraine. https://twitter.com/TheBaseLeg/status/1575077301955354624?s=20&t=tJl9mBWt9VuQ-ySwv4_W3A
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Sep 30, 2022 10:36
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gay picnic defence posted:I don't think a significant number of people in Russia actually believe the annexation actually makes those territories part of Russia so I don't think they'll be pissed off with him for nuking 'Russia'. The nuclear fallout would definitely drift into Russia, though, which is probably concerning for Russians even if they don't give a poo poo about their colonies in Ukraine. For this reason alone I think nukes are off the table and nukechat should be banished to the shadow realm of the clancychat thread. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 30, 2022 10:53
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alex314 posted:Unsurprisingly between political pressure and questions of quality Russian arms sales future looks bleak. Indonesia has just announced they will decommission 5 Su-27 and 11 SU-30 they operate now. Those will be replaced with Rafale in short term and probably by new Korean gen 5 design later on. It would be funny if US has appeared with a bag full of $ to buy those for Ukraine. I think two large factors are 1) Russian equipment is currently having a very poor showing* and 2) Nobody has any confidence in continued supply of spares and upgrades once russian industry collapses under the weight of sanctions * not necessarily the equipments fault if it hasn't been maintained since the wall fell and is now being driven by someone with two days of on-the-job training, but it still doesn't look good.
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Sep 30, 2022 11:02
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Deltasquid posted:The nuclear fallout would definitely drift into Russia, though, which is probably concerning for Russians even if they don't give a poo poo about their colonies in Ukraine. For this reason alone I think nukes are off the table and nukechat should be banished to the shadow realm of the clancychat thread. Agreed. Russia is currently using its nukes extremely effectively - it's basically defending the entire Ukrainian border down to Kharkiv using them. Probably the most effective military asset the Russians have. It would be crazy for them to use them just on that level alone - and yes yes, Russia does crazy things, but it's pointless speculating about it since by that logic literally every possibility is equally likely. In real news, Yampil confirmation: https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1575759822578151424 (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Chalks fucked around with this message at 11:19 on Sep 30, 2022 |
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Sep 30, 2022 11:03
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Just a fair warning, Russia hit a civilian convoy earlier today which so far killed 23 and wounded 34. There are somewhat gory pictures floating around on twitter of this, including pictures of some of the dead in pools of blood. So for people who don't want to see things like that, maybe stay of twitter for today. Link to the pictures, obviously don't click this if you don't want to see dead and wounded civilians. [not sure if I should include this tbh] https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1575766763757015041
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Sep 30, 2022 11:09
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According to some OSINT twitter accounts, the Russians in Lyman are gathering to attempt a breakout to the east via Zarichne and Tors'ke, where there are some reinforcements (allegedly including mobiks) waiting. UA hasn't managed to close the pocket completely so the path east is theoretically open to them for the moment, but the Tors'ke-Kreminna road is covered by Ukrainian artillery fire so it won't be an easy retreat if they manage it. https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1575795200831631360 Image is from a pro-Russian propaganda channel - shows the general location of stuff prior to the possible breakout attempt. The Russians have been slowly pushed out of the west and north of Lyman so they kind of need to make a break for the east now, before the road to Kreminna gets comprehensively cut and they lose any chance of escape. 
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Sep 30, 2022 11:44
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The Lone Badger posted:I think two large factors are 1) Russian equipment is currently having a very poor showing* and 2) Nobody has any confidence in continued supply of spares and upgrades once russian industry collapses under the weight of sanctions The thing with the Indonesian squadrons were that they were largely purchased with ongoing palm oil contracts. Indonesia already had F16s in its Air Force and so it's not like Ukraine impelled them to pivot to the west, but just further cemented it. Source: I was an indon linguist and SME in the Aus Army for ~8 years Also, https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1575799622471065600 Not to veer into clancychat, but the sham referenda are looking like a possible mechanism to justify further escalation. Not that it really means they can gather any capability effectively, but rather even more ratcheting of threats and tacnuke posturing. Paracausal fucked around with this message at 11:58 on Sep 30, 2022 |
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Sep 30, 2022 11:55
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Paracausal posted:The thing with the Indonesian squadrons were that they were largely purchased with ongoing palm oil contracts. Indonesia already had F16s in its Air Force and so it's not like Ukraine impelled them to pivot to the west, but just further cemented it. Ukraine has literally already striked inside Crimea and in Russian border towns.
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Sep 30, 2022 12:03
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The Lone Badger posted:I think two large factors are 1) Russian equipment is currently having a very poor showing* and 2) Nobody has any confidence in continued supply of spares and upgrades once russian industry collapses under the weight of sanctions It's almost certainly the supply of spare parts, both now and into the longer term. Ukraine's planes have done reasonably well so it's not as if everything Russia builds is completely useless, they're just poo poo when Russians use them.
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Sep 30, 2022 12:04
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Willo567 posted:Ukraine has literally already striked inside Crimea and in Russian border towns. There is a huge difference between Russians ignoring the no smoking signs and Ukrainian troops on 'Russian' soil.
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Sep 30, 2022 12:05
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Paracausal posted:Not to veer into clancychat, but the sham referenda are looking like a possible mechanism to justify further escalation. Not that it really means they can gather any capability effectively, but rather even more ratcheting of threats and tacnuke posturing. It's pretty transparently a threat / deterrent, but what escalation can Russia do? Mobilize more unarmed peasants? Unmothball more non-existent T-54s? Stop gas deliveries through their destroyed pipeline? They have no credibility, and furthermore there's no point in talking about an escalation in the middle of a full blown war.
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Sep 30, 2022 12:08
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Luigi's Discount Porn Bin posted:According to some OSINT twitter accounts, the Russians in Lyman are gathering to attempt a breakout to the east via Zarichne and Tors'ke, where there are some reinforcements (allegedly including mobiks) waiting. UA hasn't managed to close the pocket completely so the path east is theoretically open to them for the moment, but the Tors'ke-Kreminna road is covered by Ukrainian artillery fire so it won't be an easy retreat if they manage it. Is it likely that all this action at Lyman is going to cause another collapse of the Russian defensive line? Where are they planning to retreat to if they get out?
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