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https://twitter.com/rigaspp/status/1572188392888090626 My country. 
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Sep 21, 2022 00:47
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Morrow posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/zoyashef/status/1572150754844250115 the target audience of an english-language op-ed in politico.eu is categorically not anyone that would experience those reforms and, yeah, it looks like mostly trying to curry favor with western politicians by hitting pro-democracy talking points, trying to build relationships other than China. i don't think there's really any positive read of the "we're allowing political parties now, and wish the best of luck to that opposition forming in the drastically reduced time until the next election cycle" snap elections strategy. the focus now is on continuing to lessen the power of Nazarbayev's cohort; democratic reforms can maybe come later. it's too soon to say if Tokayev is just putting up a smokescreen while consolidating his own power enough to cement his own undemocratic rule, but he's certainly not going full tilt democracy in the short term.
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Sep 21, 2022 02:13
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That is a stock photo.
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Sep 21, 2022 23:46
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MikusR posted:That is a stock photo. What did you want them to use, a photo of her sleeping in her underwear, as she was found by the cops? cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 01:53 on Sep 22, 2022 |
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Sep 22, 2022 00:46
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https://twitter.com/janisdombrava/status/1572847903252819970 NA is openly gloating their win of forcing the government to “review” all residency permits issued to Russian citizens. Sadly, not having too many reasons to hold my breath for the process that’s going to follow, or that electorate is going to take a pause to compare NA’s effort to deport a bunch of ethnic Russians to their efforts to make sure that nurses, teachers, and pensioners can afford to eat. At least I can have my lovely silver lining of them tanking in the ratings: https://twitter.com/retv_lv/status/1572611806543200256
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Sep 22, 2022 13:33
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cinci zoo sniper posted:What did you want them to use, a photo of her sleeping in her underwear, as she was found by the cops? …y …yea? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 22, 2022 14:08
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Why else do we have police body cameras and freedom of information requests?
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Sep 22, 2022 14:52
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https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1573292225982861314
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Sep 23, 2022 14:06
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poo poo are they really going for it? Any ideas what this is based on, was it some Azeri demands in the talks?
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Sep 23, 2022 14:16
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mobby_6kl posted:poo poo are they really going for it? Any ideas what this is based on, was it some Azeri demands in the talks? I believe it’s a largely-to-entirely made up case of “Armenia is threatening us”. That said, French intelligence might be overcompensating post-February.
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Sep 23, 2022 14:30
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mobby_6kl posted:poo poo are they really going for it? Any ideas what this is based on, was it some Azeri demands in the talks? Still higher than the US alerts (who have better intel), they are barring embassey staff from those areas but the country is still "level 1" https://am.usembassy.gov/security-alert-update/
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Sep 23, 2022 14:39
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Actually losing my mind from government-sponsored makeup and food memes about mobilisation
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Sep 24, 2022 03:07
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cinci zoo sniper posted:So, we have the 14th Saeima elections in Latvia on the 1st of October, where we choose our parliament. This is the most important election of Latvian political cycle, since the parliament elects our president. Brief summary of our electoral system: http://archive.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2177_B.htm Alright, time for the more serious Latvia elections effort post, with the last major pre-election ratings finalized. I'll go over just the parties polling above 5%. Of the 4 polling around 5% only K has non-zero chances of entering into a government coalition with anyone, and looking at their programme wouldn't add meaningfully to the preceding, regarding major political beats of the current electoral cycle. New Unity (JV) The programme overall feels quite conservative, playing on the safe side in the continuation of their informal role of being the consensus party, quote-unquote, and vacuuming up disgruntled M(E)Ps from other parties. The business part is really fluffy, but the more accountable things elsewhere seem to be reasonably within reach - they've clearly invested a lot of effort into writing the programme into something that a non-loyal person voter could find believable. Pending non-critical obstacles like LIZDA (teachers' union) opposing the mandatory STEM exam due to lack of teachers. Simultaneously, they don't promise anything too radical. It's mostly incrementalism, in a derogatory sense, and acknowledgement of problems that are universally acknowledged. The loud beats of their programme are 1) education in Latvian, 2) prevention of domestic violence, 3) de facto legal recognition of gay marriage, and 4) construction of an LNG terminal. 1) Education in Latvian – this is the most heated, partisan issue in the history of politics of the 2nd independent Latvia, with the sides being nationalists and Russian speakers, simplifying. Going into the implementation minutiae wouldn't be too relevant here, so I'll just do a general background on how it went.
 2) Domestic violence here looks like a red herring to me. They're seemingly suggesting ratifying the Istanbul convention, but the choice of language is deliberately vague, much like on their thing about gay marriage. On one hand, they could be trying to manoeuvre around inattentive voters, with, e.g., one of the most popular government ministers being openly gay. On the other hand, our conservative really like to glibly repeat “our laws are better than the Istanbul convention”, and JV kind-of are soft conservatives, especially with being the consensus tent now. I see this mainly as a “women, please vote for us” thing, given that our murder stats for at least a decade show 90%+ women victims. 3) JV has voted for the civil unions law, so the only question really is if they're considering compromising on some “biological family” bullshit somewhere, if they find themselves in a government coalition with NA again. 4) LNG terminal is going to be funny. I'd say that the average JV voter leans affluent, but I guess they're urban enough that NIMBY moaning about infrastructure (major theme in Latvia, be angry about anything being built near you, and then complain that you live in an economic wasteland) is not going to be too prominent. National Alliance (NA) Same old horse poo poo, though admittedly timid, compared to some of their past (and I don't mean like the Pērkonkrustieši stuff). Peculiar to see them not trying to capitalize on the Green Deal all that much. The “we'll improve methodical support for general education” thing smells like CRT moaning by American conservatives, e.g., in Florida. The “faster courts” thing is also duplicitous as hell, given that they basically want to fire the constitutional court. United List (AS) An usual programme, as I noted earlier. This read very focus grouped at "rural Latvian pensioner complaining about technocratic incompetence of government" demographic, and the rating does reflect that reasonably well, I guess. Simultaneously, they're dodging all the hot button issues outlined under JV, basically. I fear that their voters might be in for a ride, when their assumptions about party's beliefs not put into writing face a reality check. Progressives (PRO) While I think the programme is a bit weak in an analytical sense, in that it doesn't do a good, or even just decent, frankly, job at convincing that they know how to achieve their stated goals, they are living up to their name, mostly. Fair amount of recognition given to the more challenging subjects (shadow economy, poverty in the regions and among younger people). In general, I'm refreshingly surprised with the extent of care for regions that their party shows, without being a pro-regional lobby (local politics get weird when 2/3 of the country live in the capital, and the next largest city is 1/6th the Riga city limits de jure). Pretty bold of them to speak in favour of the Istanbul convention, about alcohol being a problem as well. Also, to go after the gambling lobby in their programme, which is influential enough to have government ministers shut down city-level gambling restrictions on their behalf. All that said, they still seem to be holding on to a slightly blind, in my opinion, fetishization of the Nordics, and putting “education in Latvian starting from the age of 1.5” under “inclusive society” is just appalling.  Harmony (S) The programme is really weak, and I think this might be the last parliament where it'll pass the parliamentary threshold in its current form. They have some crafty politicians who will live on, but the party as-founded seems to be spent. There's no possible outcome for the election where they can exert any influence at all, so I'll just briefly muse about two of the points they make that repeat themselves in almost all populistic programs. 1) Single-mandate electoral system. I guess this is an interesting side effect of KPV's collapse, dragging down literally everyone else, and the likes of Aldis Gobzems being forced to eat poo poo with a big spoon. I do think that it's unhealthy that getting elected as an independent in our system is impossible, but this feels much less like that to me, and much more like a select few being upset for not being able to cancel the government, while posing too much electoral risk for their parties to retain them. Especially when coupled with what other parties propose, e.g., halving parliament seats to 50, and potential gerrymandering risks stemming out of the disproportionate size of Riga. 2) Popular presidential election. Honestly, a bit weird that we still have the parliament elect the president for us, but moving to an open presidential election, in my opinion, we would need to revise the institute, further away from the American model. Union of Farmers and Greens (ZZS) I feel like this is another party that's guaranteed to be irrelevant. Lembergs is simply too toxic, and stuff like increasing pensions for Soviet boomers is fairly transparent. Development/For! (A/P) The programme reads like a 10pm rant at the TV that Latvia must be better at computers. Besides noting that they're the main proponent behind having a conscription service, the thing to breach here, I guess, is that they're mentioning respect for the constitution in their programme. It's relatively peculiarly placed, right after the sentence about courts, and in my read this sounds like they're keen on to more explicitly distance from the conservatives who are yelling that our constitutional court is too political and woke in their interpretation of family rights. It was very funny to watch the bunch of law-and-order conservatives just straight up say the quiet part out loud with “let's close the courts and remake them a new with only the judges we like”. For Stability! (S!) Another non-factor party, with the program just firing scattershot at things they think people complain about. The main difference between S and S! is that S! wants to persecute the current government and members of parliament criminally, for daring to do anything about the pandemic. Government predictions (the last major ratings poll before the election)  I think we'll have 8-11 parties in the parliament – ideally just 8, since NA, ZZS, and S! already means plenty of trash in the chairs. My own predictions would be >25% for JV, >10% for NA, AS, and PRO. The government coalition would then have 2 basic options – JV, AS, either PRO or NA, and A/P if that wasn't enough for a majority. I can't imagine anyone working with ZZS or S, or S!, and, similarly, NA and PRO entering the same coalition seems untenable. I think NA will be more skilled at selling out to get into the coalition, but PRO is quite popular in Riga, and that alone may carry them in a tiebreaker. edit: https://www.lsm.lv/raksts/zinas/lat...ar-zzs.a475129/ Fresh interview with the current PM, and the most likely next PM. Content re-running the current coalition (JV-NA-A/P-K), red line on ZZS, cautiously non-committal on AS, and politely neutral on PRO. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 17:43 on Sep 25, 2022 |
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Sep 25, 2022 17:20
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For myself, I think I'll toss a ballot in for PRO on the weekend. I'm ultimately left wanting by their program, in terms of technocratic policy, but a vote for them should work out as a soft vote against NA and maybe AS, which is good enough for me. Gathering a list of decent options for my parents though is easier said than done, since there's maybe 2 parties total I'd consider voting for out of them all. I guess I'll just give them JV and PRO, since I can't imagine them voting for literally any other ballot, both being liberal long-term S/predecessors voters that cannot stand Putin. Also, my partiju šķirotava result, for memes:  My disagreements with PRO are pretty much as expected, apart from them apparently being fully opposed to people electing the president and partially supportive of putting off climate preservation reforms in favour of short-term economic benefits. edit: lol 
cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 18:35 on Sep 25, 2022 |
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Sep 25, 2022 18:09
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cinci zoo sniper posted:edit: lol is this the proposed new cabinet for an incoming coalition?
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Sep 25, 2022 18:27
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i say swears online posted:is this the proposed new cabinet for an incoming coalition? This is what partiju šķirotava alleges to be my dream cabinet  I think I’m good on A/P ministers after current government, good for life even.Edit: In terms of the incoming cabinet, the safe bet is JV PM continuing being a PM, and ~half of ministries for JV. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 18:54 on Sep 25, 2022 |
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Sep 25, 2022 18:28
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I think we'll have 8-11 parties in the parliament – ideally just 8, since NA, ZZS, and S! already means plenty of trash in the chairs. My own predictions would be >25% for JV, >10% for NA, AS, and PRO. The government coalition would then have 2 basic options – JV, AS, either PRO or NA, and A/P if that wasn't enough for a majority. I can't imagine anyone working with ZZS or S, or S!, and, similarly, NA and PRO entering the same coalition seems untenable. I think NA will be more skilled at selling out to get into the coalition, but PRO is quite popular in Riga, and that alone may carry them in a tiebreaker. That's a sensible and very realistic prediction, I think. I'd suspect that NA will be boosted a bit further ahead of AS and PRO than the polls show, though. Optimistically, I'd expect PRO to get between 9 and 11 seats. edit: opened Twitter after posting, first thing to jump at me was this. Translation: Do you agree that human lives should be protected from the moment of conception? https://twitter.com/Pexiss/status/1574048665915695106 a podcast for cats fucked around with this message at 19:14 on Sep 25, 2022 |
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Sep 25, 2022 19:10
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well that's surprising
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Sep 25, 2022 19:20
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I'm currently trying to track down if there have been any PRO or NA interviews about entering into a coalition with the other. Kariņš is currently not at all selling me the idea that JV is interested in a coalition with AS, if the sworn in MPs have familiar faces, like Didzis Šmits from KPV. Under the assumption that JV has a red line not just for ZZS, but also for AS, coalition talks get quite spicier. If we assume that JV and NA get 35% combined, they would need to find another 15% to form a government, and I don't think that A/P, and possibly K, is going to give them that. This would mean brokering a peace between PRO and NA/K, which would be really interesting to watch them selling. Even more spectacular would be an election outcome where JV-NA-A/P cannot form a government, K doesn't enter the parliament, and JV-NA-PRO is numerically sufficient for a government.a podcast for cats posted:That's a sensible and very realistic prediction, I think. I'd suspect that NA will be boosted a bit further ahead of AS and PRO than the polls show, though. Optimistically, I'd expect PRO to get between 9 and 11 seats. Very convenient of this website to gather all suspects in one place, and even interrogate them accordingly. Someone from Harmony should check out what's their peer club nowadays. edit: Predictably, my dad's response to the suggestion of "check PRO and JV, maybe A/P if you hate both, maaaaybe AS if you hate the 3 of them" was “son, these PRO guys are the only one's worth reading here”. Makes sense, really, if you consider the place of the LSDSP cinematic universe in the Latgalian heartland. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 19:43 on Sep 25, 2022 |
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Sep 25, 2022 19:25
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Peculiarly, or perhaps not so given my earlier critique of PRO's immigration policy, I've not been able to find anything that would suggest red lines with NA – only with S, LKS, and “populist demagogues” (I assume everything below S! on ratings, K excluding, with ZZS and AS under question mark). In that case, depending on how well JV performs, the government coalition could be as small as JV-NA-PRO. Admittedly, this is a reach, but adding A/P to that doesn't change substance. However, in that case they'll have to beg the opposition for votes on their social agenda, e.g., ratification of the Istanbul convention, which wouldn't work well in the best of times. And this really isn't the best of times, as far as cooperativeness of the opposition is concerned.
cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 01:06 on Sep 26, 2022 |
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Sep 26, 2022 01:02
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Are there any obvious candidates on the PRO ballot that would deserve the strike? I'm completely ignoring the Latvian twittersphere so maybe there's dumb stuff I'm missing.
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Sep 26, 2022 01:29
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Arzachel posted:Are there any obvious candidates on the PRO ballot that would deserve the strike? I'm completely ignoring the Latvian twittersphere so maybe there's dumb stuff I'm missing. Assuming Rīga ballot, Edgars Labsvīrs. https://www.lsm.lv/raksts/zinas/latvija/valsts-kontrole-versas-policija-par-aizsargmasku-iepirkumu-covid-19-krize.a367774/ I believe this criminal investigation against him is still open, I remember seeing a piece mentioning that roughly a month ago. That said, I plan to research my strikes and marks in more detail on Thursday-Friday. Edit: https://twitter.com/eurasianet/status/1574161069861380098 cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 01:57 on Sep 26, 2022 |
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Sep 26, 2022 01:51
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During the last hours the fragile ceasefire has again broken. It might again be settled, but I fear that one of these flashes will lead to the resumption of general war. https://twitter.com/cavidaga/status/1575152846621884416?s=20&t=q1-QL7db-zrJoGiv6WYsew https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1575155030080065539?s=12&t=z1kJXq0Ua9aM5KMha4M5Nw https://twitter.com/ArmeniaMODTeam/status/1575159302561697793?s=20&t=kjhYW1_ABERccK-FkVnokA I don't believe that they would launch the offensive on the same day that the US is attempting intensive diplomacy, but we'll see.
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Sep 28, 2022 18:45
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FishBulbia posted:I don't believe that they would launch the offensive on the same day that the US is attempting intensive diplomacy, but we'll see. That's possibly assuming too centralized control over decisions. Fanaticism has many advantages in the lower ranks, but one very important disadvantage that has been noted time and again is that if people believe that their cause is just and right to the level of almost being divinely ordained, they don't want to stop just because their superiors tell them to, and they will find or manufacture causes to start poo poo up again whether it makes sense or no. If we know anything about the Azeri military, they really do seem to be pretty fanatical. (See, for example, the guy who murdered the Armenian guy during a NATO exercise.)
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Sep 29, 2022 01:49
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Tuna-Fish posted:That's possibly assuming too centralized control over decisions. Fanaticism has many advantages in the lower ranks, but one very important disadvantage that has been noted time and again is that if people believe that their cause is just and right to the level of almost being divinely ordained, they don't want to stop just because their superiors tell them to, and they will find or manufacture causes to start poo poo up again whether it makes sense or no. This is for sure true, but I'm guessing its not an independent operation if it used heavy artillery. They're doing a bit of an troll game now, where they invade a few feet, set up positions, and then tell Armenia that they won't leave as there is no official border recognized between Armenia and Azerbaijan (as Karabakh is in the way). The end result is an invasion by 1000 cuts over several months.
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Sep 29, 2022 01:57
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https://twitter.com/edgarsdrusts/status/1575411219699212289 lmao
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Sep 29, 2022 23:04
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I can't read that so I'm going to assume it's an ad for a vape pen that is flavored like a gas leak.
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Sep 30, 2022 00:04
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Discendo Vox posted:I can't read that so I'm going to assume it's an ad for a vape pen that is flavored like a gas leak. Heating flavored vape pen, close enough
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Sep 30, 2022 00:17
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Discendo Vox posted:I can't read that so I'm going to assume it's an ad for a vape pen that is flavored like a gas leak. It’s the most popular vape brand here, and the meme is riffing on the galore of sometimes frankly odd flavours available with what Archazel said I think the most popular one is banana or something? Known flavoured thing, bananas.
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Sep 30, 2022 00:24
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Bananas have a distinct flavour, although it's also worth noting that the artificial banana flavour in candies etc. is based on a cultivar that got killed by Panama disease in the 1960's, so it's nothing like our current Cavendish. Now if it was potato flavour...
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Sep 30, 2022 04:06
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Are you besmirching the taste of a staple food? I'll have you know that my Linda potatoes are very flavourfull.
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Sep 30, 2022 08:04
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Nenonen posted:Bananas have a distinct flavour, although it's also worth noting that the artificial banana flavour in candies etc. is based on a cultivar that got killed by Panama disease in the 1960's, so it's nothing like our current Cavendish. i was aware of the gros michel but didn't know it was used in runts' awful banana candy. lol i'm glad they're all dead
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Sep 30, 2022 08:21
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I was getting some shopping done yesterday and noticed this super ancient granny luging a big bag of shopping, so I offered to help her carry it home. As we were walking down the street, she started to percolate her worldview, and it of course turned out she was super racist (all Germans are evil demons because they murdered my family in camps) and pro-PiS (current non-PiS progressive mayor of Warsaw is "worst ever"). I couldn't nope out of this for 20 minutes as she was stopping every 3 steps to share more pearls of wisdom. Even in the very downtown of Warsaw, from people supposedly of the legendary "inteligencja" you get this poo poo.
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Sep 30, 2022 08:21
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Sep 30, 2022 08:24
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Mokotow posted:I couldn't nope out of this for 20 minutes as she was stopping every 3 steps to share more pearls of wisdom. Even in the very downtown of Warsaw, from people supposedly of the legendary "inteligencja" you get this poo poo. it is okay to be rude to old fascists hth
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Sep 30, 2022 08:25
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Brains rot with age. I see it with my family, people that never held any extreme opinions start sharing such nuggets of wisdom like "let's not vote for PiS (yay) because Kaczyński is a Jew (huh?)".
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Sep 30, 2022 08:33
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Nenonen posted:Bananas have a distinct flavour, although it's also worth noting that the artificial banana flavour in candies etc. is based on a cultivar that got killed by Panama disease in the 1960's, so it's nothing like our current Cavendish. i say swears online posted:i was aware of the gros michel but didn't know it was used in runts' awful banana candy. lol i'm glad they're all dead Banana candy doesn't taste like Gros Michel either, even if it's a popular myth, it tastes like isoamyl acetate which is used as generic banana flavorant because it's dirt cheap and is contained in both banana cultivars, but obviously layered with other flavors that are missing in the candy.
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Sep 30, 2022 08:38
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Mokotow posted:I was getting some shopping done yesterday and noticed this super ancient granny luging a big bag of shopping, so I offered to help her carry it home. As we were walking down the street, she started to percolate her worldview, and it of course turned out she was super racist (all Germans are evil demons because they murdered my family in camps) and pro-PiS (current non-PiS progressive mayor of Warsaw is "worst ever"). I couldn't nope out of this for 20 minutes as she was stopping every 3 steps to share more pearls of wisdom. Even in the very downtown of Warsaw, from people supposedly of the legendary "inteligencja" you get this poo poo. 
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Sep 30, 2022 08:41
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i say swears online posted:it is okay to be rude to old fascists hth I realise it's a shitpost, but that's a loaded can of worms right there when there is the faintest hint of ethnic or religious tension.
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Sep 30, 2022 08:45
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a podcast for cats posted:I realise it's a shitpost, but that's a loaded can of worms right there when there is the faintest hint of ethnic or religious tension. would that have the same public conflict as a black man refusing to carry the groceries of a white woman in the 50s south? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 30, 2022 08:48
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