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Uncle Enzo posted:Which is also why it would be so useless, because the Russians have already been spamming cruise missiles to their hearts content at whatever they want. Nukes aren't magic win buttons, they're just really really big bombs. If the Russians knew about valuable targets that would really help win the war, they could just shoot regular missiles and have the same effect. A logistical strike against railways used for weapons shipments in western Ukraine is my guess. - would be a clear "gently caress you NATO" without actually attacking NATO territory - Russia has tried to shut down weapon shipments to Ukraine with conventional weapons without much success at all - a tactical nuclear strike would cause panic and at a minimum completely halt transit on the rail line hit - as a bonus, it's in western Ukraine so Russia doesn't get any radiation blowback (sucks to be Poland though) On the other hand, it would probably be the smartest deployment of tactical nukes, so Russia won't do it.
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Sep 30, 2022 15:19
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Lum_ posted:A logistical strike against railways used for weapons shipments in western Ukraine is my guess. That would most certainly result in Poland going apeshit and pressing the Article 5 button, so also pretty stupid even if it results in short term gains.
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Sep 30, 2022 15:21
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Russia is apparently putting together non-mechanized/motorized infantry formations. supersized ranged claymore
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Sep 30, 2022 15:24
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Stultus Maximus posted:I can picture every F-15 and Patriot battery in Europe making sure within about a week that nothing Russian remains in Ukraine and nothing Russian can enter Ukraine. Also probably goodbye black seaf fleet and hq.
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Sep 30, 2022 15:26
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ded posted:It's not "the Ukraine", its "Ukraine" hth tbh, for years I referred to that country as 'the ukraine' because it sounded right in my autistic head and when I didn't realize that referring to a country as 'the whatever' is tool that imperialists use to delegitimize the people who have to suffer the oppressive bullshit that imperialists want to impose on others. It still sneaks in now and again, namaste.
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Sep 30, 2022 15:30
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https://twitter.com/ralakbar/status/1575856700543754242?s=46&t=cmpJYvlCw_aeqGgLgtq1VA
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Sep 30, 2022 15:55
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Here we go- Ukraine's applying to join NATO. https://twitter.com/michaeltanchum/status/1575852361443991552
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Sep 30, 2022 16:00
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Marshal Prolapse posted:Also probably goodbye black seaf fleet and hq. That seems like the worst response. It opens the "I'm now directly touching you" can of worms and relies on someone who has spent nine months doubling down now backing off.
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Sep 30, 2022 16:03
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pantslesswithwolves posted:Here we go- Ukraine's applying to join NATO. Again?
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Sep 30, 2022 16:14
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Lum_ posted:A logistical strike against railways used for weapons shipments in western Ukraine is my guess. Any significant marshaling yard is very likely to be in, or on the outskirts of, a large urban center. I know people like to just dismiss Putin as a maniac but I have to think that even he is going to balk at dramatically killing a few hundred thousand civilians with a verboten weapon well back behind the lines not because he cares about the loss of human life but if anything would bring China and the rest around to kicking Russia off the UN Security Counsel it would be that. It doesn't even have a patina of, 'we'll we had to do it because else millions of lives were at stake' that Hiroshima and Nagasaki have. It's just a straight up meaningless extermination of non-combatants in the most obvious, dramatic and cackling evil way possible. I can see a one off military target that has a significant impact on Ukraine's ability to prosecute the war being one of those things where the outcry could be born with a, 'it was limited strike on a legitimate target' and persevering through the aftermath. But a straight up, 'gently caress that city!"? No, I don't think so.
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Sep 30, 2022 16:49
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What’s the air superiority situation over Ukraine? Could Russia carpet bomb Kiev if they felt like it or would that get shredded by anti air? To confirm is the Ukrainian Air Force still a major factor?
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Sep 30, 2022 16:50
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At the moment both sides have more anti air capacity than the other is able to deal with. Plane and helicopter missions tend to be relatively high risk, and it's low altitude and high speed when someone decides the risk is worth it. Russia has been hitting deep into Ukraine mostly with cruise missiles, and those are often interdicted too. Ukraine has had several high profile missions that hinged on air insertions.
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Sep 30, 2022 16:53
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pantslesswithwolves posted:Here we go- Ukraine's applying to join NATO. Wont' happen, like one of the core rules of accession is that there are no ongoing territorial conflicts, to avoid pulling the alliance into a conflict upon accession.
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Sep 30, 2022 17:00
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Hyrax Attack! posted:What’s the air superiority situation over Ukraine? Could Russia carpet bomb Kiev if they felt like it or would that get shredded by anti air? Russia's inability to establish air superiority was one of the major early surprises of the invasion, and it doesn't appear to have gotten better for them. Their bombers have been mostly limited to firing missiles from Russian or Belarusian airspace.
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Sep 30, 2022 17:02
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This seems to be accellerating this morning.
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Sep 30, 2022 17:03
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Hyrax Attack! posted:What’s the air superiority situation over Ukraine? Could Russia carpet bomb Kiev if they felt like it or would that get shredded by anti air? Just to reiterate that everything Russia could've done to end the war faster has already been done excluding nukes.
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Sep 30, 2022 17:04
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My pessimistic take on if Russia actually uses nukes is they pull out and carpet all the areas they annexed to turn it into no-mans land. Can't technically lose the war or retaliate against the strike (other than stricter sanctions or nuclear escalation by the rest of the world) if there is nothing left to fight over or occupy.
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Sep 30, 2022 17:06
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AreWeDrunkYet posted:At the moment both sides have more anti air capacity than the other is able to deal with. Plane and helicopter missions tend to be relatively high risk, and it's low altitude and high speed when someone decides the risk is worth it. Russia has been hitting deep into Ukraine mostly with cruise missiles, and those are often interdicted too. Ukraine has had several high profile missions that hinged on air insertions. Gotcha thanks for explaining
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Sep 30, 2022 17:10
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Russia won't use nukes, even though it's in the list of "things they will do if invaded" Putin can't be that far loving gone that he would authorize deployment of nuclear weapons. If there were credible evidence of increased activity with the missile units trusted with nuclear weapons, messaging from the US would be way stepped up I think. The US at a minimum would be on an incredibly high alert "ready to go to war in <24h" because they'd want Russia to know that they know what Russia is doing and that it's not acceptable. The US isn't in that kind of posture right now. Besides, any use of nuclear weapons needs buyoff from Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov, and it would need to be unanimous. Even if Putin was cracked, the people around him ought to know the consequences of what happens if they use a weapon.
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Sep 30, 2022 17:11
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WaltherFeng posted:Just to reiterate that everything Russia could've done to end the war faster has already been done excluding nukes. Apart from accelerating the weird haphazard press gang draft they have going into full mobilization
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Sep 30, 2022 17:12
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Floodkiller posted:My pessimistic take on if Russia actually uses nukes is they pull out and carpet all the areas they annexed to turn it into no-mans land. Can't technically lose the war or retaliate against the strike (other than stricter sanctions or nuclear escalation by the rest of the world) if there is nothing left to fight over or occupy. That would require the rest of the world accept the annexation, and I am pretty sure everyone but Russia still sees that as UKR land
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Sep 30, 2022 17:13
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Floodkiller posted:My pessimistic take on if Russia actually uses nukes is they pull out and carpet all the areas they annexed to turn it into no-mans land. Can't technically lose the war or retaliate against the strike (other than stricter sanctions or nuclear escalation by the rest of the world) if there is nothing left to fight over or occupy. loving Belkans.
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Sep 30, 2022 17:25
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aphid_licker posted:That seems like the worst response. It opens the "I'm now directly touching you" can of worms and relies on someone who has spent nine months doubling down now backing off. If a tactical weapon is used there is no more "I'm not touching you games" Its either the full weight of the Polish and US militaries stopping the war immediately or the west accepts that nations can use a few nukes now and then as a treat.
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Sep 30, 2022 17:29
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https://twitter.com/SullyCNBC/status/1575541947162320896
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Sep 30, 2022 17:29
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M_Gargantua posted:If a tactical weapon is used there is no more "I'm not touching you games" Its either the full weight of the Polish and US militaries stopping the war immediately or the west accepts that nations can use a few nukes now and then as a treat. I think this is true if for no other reason than what it would mean for the international order if Russia got away with dropping the big one. A Desert Storm-style coalition throwing them out of Ukraine would be the only possible escalation. Imagine the nuclear proliferation that would result if Russia successfully used nukes to enforce the gains from their war of conquest. Every pariah state and every neighbor of a pariah state would be rushing for the bomb like it was 1946.
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Sep 30, 2022 17:44
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Just a thought, isn't it more likely that Putin would escalate to chemical weapons instead of nuclear ones? In his eyes, a client dictator like Assad got away with using them, so why shouldn't he?
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Sep 30, 2022 17:45
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Is he loving trying to invoke article 5?
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Sep 30, 2022 17:46
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Natty Ninefingers posted:Is he loving trying to invoke article 5? No? Ukraine is not a member of NATO, so there's no Article 5 to invoke.
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Sep 30, 2022 17:49
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Fearless posted:Just a thought, isn't it more likely that Putin would escalate to chemical weapons instead of nuclear ones? In his eyes, a client dictator like Assad got away with using them, so why shouldn't he? Chemical weapons are tricky to use correctly and modern armies have NBC gear to protect themselves.
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Sep 30, 2022 17:50
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orange juche posted:No? Ukraine is not a member of NATO, so there's no Article 5 to invoke. He is referencing the French energy company that has spotted a drone behaving in a similar manner as what was observed with the Nord Stream pipeline. Pretty sure if russia attempted to blow up a factory/warehouse that belongs to, say, Ford or Target, we would consider that an act of war.
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Sep 30, 2022 17:56
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ASAPI posted:He is referencing the French energy company that has spotted a drone behaving in a similar manner as what was observed with the Nord Stream pipeline. Probably not if it were in India, for example.
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Sep 30, 2022 18:05
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Hyrax Attack! posted:What’s the air superiority situation over Ukraine? Could Russia carpet bomb Kiev if they felt like it or would that get shredded by anti air? I think its tilting in Ukraines favor currently. Russia has stripped air defense system from their western borders and Syria, and moved them to Ukraine, where they are being targeted by drones and himars. Ukraine has been shooting down a lot of russian planes recently as well.
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Sep 30, 2022 18:07
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Floodkiller posted:My pessimistic take on if Russia actually uses nukes is they pull out and carpet all the areas they annexed to turn it into no-mans land. Can't technically lose the war or retaliate against the strike (other than stricter sanctions or nuclear escalation by the rest of the world) if there is nothing left to fight over or occupy. If Russia nukes multiple cities they're getting invaded and / or nuked back. The population of Russia would also be assigned global villain status and their hopes for a middle class existence would be completely dashed. Thats not a 'winning' or even a 'draw' it would be a loss aphid_licker posted:That seems like the worst response. It opens the "I'm now directly touching you" can of worms and relies on someone who has spent nine months doubling down now backing off. Not much point in continuing the no touching charade when nukes start getting used. Grip it and rip it fucked around with this message at 18:21 on Sep 30, 2022 |
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Sep 30, 2022 18:18
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Fearless posted:Just a thought, isn't it more likely that Putin would escalate to chemical weapons instead of nuclear ones? In his eyes, a client dictator like Assad got away with using them, so why shouldn't he? He's already used them. On NATO territory, even. There was also an incident a few months back where it was suspected a drone deployed *something* nasty. The problem with chemical weapons is that we'd gleefully donate the Ukrainians MOPP gear. In fact, you'd probably have vets who've worn it volunteer to pack it up for them just so they'd know it'll never hurt them again.
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Sep 30, 2022 18:18
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Fearless posted:Just a thought, isn't it more likely that Putin would escalate to chemical weapons instead of nuclear ones? In his eyes, a client dictator like Assad got away with using them, so why shouldn't he? No, chemical weapons are pretty useless.
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Sep 30, 2022 18:27
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M_Gargantua posted:If a tactical weapon is used there is no more "I'm not touching you games" Its either the full weight of the Polish and US militaries stopping the war immediately or the west accepts that nations can use a few nukes now and then as a treat. Yeah well sinking the Black Sea Fleet can't end the war and neither can the Poles pushing the Russians out of Ukraine. And either way you're now what looks a lot like a participant in a war that is no longer non-nuclear.
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Sep 30, 2022 18:27
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Stultus Maximus posted:Probably not if it were in India, for example. If your point is that this isn't within France's territorial waters, the North Sea still contains the EEZ of two NATO members.
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Sep 30, 2022 18:34
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meatbag posted:https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1575843498217144321 Those poor conscripts.
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Sep 30, 2022 18:36
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aphid_licker posted:Yeah well sinking the Black Sea Fleet can't end the war and neither can the Poles pushing the Russians out of Ukraine. And either way you're now what looks a lot like a participant in a war that is no longer non-nuclear. Uh yeah, when Russia uses nukes its by definition no longer a non-nuclear war. Thats what makes it such an unlikely escalation.
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Sep 30, 2022 18:41
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M_Gargantua posted:No, chemical weapons are pretty useless. As an offensive weapon against a prepared military, yes. But they are and always have been a damned good area denial weapon.
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Sep 30, 2022 18:44
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