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Rabelais D
Dec 11, 2012

ts'u nnu k'u k'o t'khye:
A demon doth defecate at thy door
Pangolins were highlighted as a possible link in 2020 but I think that was never more than just a theory. The closest relative to SARS cov 2 has been found in bats, not pangolins. And viruses can travel from bats to humans.

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Atopian
Sep 23, 2014

I need a security perimeter with Venetian blinds.

Rabelais D posted:

I mean we know they were working with live bats in the Wuhan lab, they think the virus came from bats, China has had many lab leaks before, and the first mass outbreak happened to be in Wuhan where they were working with bat coronaviruses. Of all the places in the world. Not Yunnan, where those bats are from, but Wuhan. It's not exactly some crazy theory. Saying that the virus was deliberately engineered or whatever is the dumb fringe theory.

To try to explain:
Getting a virus to jump from an animal to a human host is extremely unlikely.
Having the virus that infected that human then be able to infect other humans is also unlikely.
These two things put together therefore become extremely unlikely.

It is relatively (only relatively) easy to deliberately tweak a virus for a new host range, but doing so will leave... editing marks, I guess is the easy way to put it.

In the absence of those editing marks, which again have not been found on any of the covid-19 strains, we have to assume that the virus is one of several wild strains.

Wild strains transmission to human is a simple numbers game. That's it. So the question is, what percentage of total human-virus interaction occurs based on wildlife trade, and what percentage based on labwork?
The answer, unless there are a *lot* of labs, is "mostly via wildlife trade".

Now, it is theoretically possible that a lab could be set up to deliberately expose humans to wild strain viruses on an industrial scale, but that would be... really weird, since engineering gain-of-function would be much, much faster/cheaper/more reliable, if that's what you wanted.

Coronaviruses emerge from wildlife or farmed animal populations every few years. SARS, MERS, more that never got popular names because they never got anywhere. Covid isn't unusual in that sense. It's unusual in being more transmissible than usual, and apparently in emerging and then spreading through places where local governments weren't ready or willing to do poo poo about it - first Wuhan, then Europe and the USA.

Anyway, that's my assessment as someone who ran microbiology/virology journals for a few years. Take it or leave it, but if you're going to take a perspective based on "$country bad!", at least leave scientific stuff out of it.

Grand Fromage
Jan 30, 2006

L-l-look at you bar-bartender, a-a pa-pathetic creature of meat and bone, un-underestimating my l-l-liver's ability to metab-meTABolize t-toxins. How can you p-poison a perfect, immortal alcohOLIC?


Asymptomatic transmission was unusual too, from what I understand. Original SARS both was less contagious and didn't have asymptomatic carriers, so it was able to be contained even after breaking out of China.

ninjoatse.cx
Apr 9, 2005

Fun Shoe
The Economist released an 8 part series about the life of Xi Jinping

https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2022/09/28/1-redder-than-red

It covers his early life, as told by himself and the party, and major shifts in his policy changes. It's framed as a scathing tell all, but most of the things in this podcast have been mentioned in this thread around the time they happened. Still not a bad review or for people who only sometimes read the thread.

Megillah Gorilla
Sep 22, 2003

If only all of life's problems could be solved by smoking a professor of ancient evil texts.



Bread Liar

Atopian posted:

To try to explain:
Getting a virus to jump from an animal to a human host is extremely unlikely.
Having the virus that infected that human then be able to infect other humans is also unlikely.
These two things put together therefore become extremely unlikely.

And yet we have so many examples of it happening that your reasoning here becomes moot.

Atopian
Sep 23, 2014

I need a security perimeter with Venetian blinds.

Megillah Gorilla posted:

And yet we have so many examples of it happening that your reasoning here becomes moot.

It's not a significant counter to say "your extremely unlikely thing actually happens several times a year!" when that is considered across all the animals and people on Earth.

The point of "extremely unlikely" was to establish that if you want to have a solid chance at a virus jumping from animal host to human host, then brief/limited/occasional contact with a non-engineered virus - whether from a farm, wildlife, or a lab, won't cut it.

Your options are either engineering a virus for a new host, which leaves traces in the genome of that virus and all descendants, or arranging exposure on a much wider scale - say, by farming or by routinely hunting/capturing/selling/eating wildlife for years.

So for a hypothetical singular/occasional lab leak to have a reasonable chance of causing a host-shift event like this, it would be necessary for the virus to have been engineered to do so.
Which, as mentioned, leaves traces.
And, again as mentioned, such traces have not been found by any country on any covid strain, at least that I'm aware of.

Megillah Gorilla
Sep 22, 2003

If only all of life's problems could be solved by smoking a professor of ancient evil texts.



Bread Liar
https://twitter.com/doctorkarl/status/1241602531366539266

Ups_rail
Dec 8, 2006

by Fluffdaddy

ninjoatse.cx posted:

The Economist released an 8 part series about the life of Xi Jinping

https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2022/09/28/1-redder-than-red

It covers his early life, as told by himself and the party, and major shifts in his policy changes. It's framed as a scathing tell all, but most of the things in this podcast have been mentioned in this thread around the time they happened. Still not a bad review or for people who only sometimes read the thread.

Is Xi more popular than jesus?

McGavin
Sep 18, 2012

Ups_rail posted:

Is Xi more popular than jesus?

Not quite yet. There are 2.4 billion Christians and only 1.4 billion Chinese.

2nd Amendment
Jun 9, 2022

by Pragmatica
What about the overlap though? A small percentage (of a very large mumber) of Chinese are Christians so that should be subtracted from the total.

The junk collector
Aug 10, 2005
Hey do you want that motherboard?

2nd Amendment posted:

What about the overlap though? A small percentage (of a very large mumber) of Chinese are Christians so that should be subtracted from the total.

Until the secret police finish confirming their allegiance they will be counted in both camps.

sticksy
May 26, 2004
Nap Ghost

Ups_rail posted:

Is Xi more popular than jesus?

Possibly on Twitter

eSports Chaebol
Feb 22, 2005

Yeah, actually, gamers in the house forever,

Ups_rail posted:

Is Xi more popular than jesus?

Are there any big religious figures whose whole Deal was being staid instead of charismatic? ascetics don’t count imho

Preechr
May 19, 2009

Proud member of the Pony-Brony Alliance for Obama as President

eSports Chaebol posted:

Are there any big religious figures whose whole Deal was being staid instead of charismatic? ascetics don’t count imho

If you count the Roman deification of Emperors post-mortem, then Marcus Aurelius.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

The junk collector posted:

Until the secret police finish confirming their allegiance they will be counted in both camps.

Please don't say camps that has negative connotations

The junk collector
Aug 10, 2005
Hey do you want that motherboard?
Speaking of not speaking of camps.

Why is Canada (and other governments) allowing the CCP to set up police stations in their countries?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-china-police-stations-citizen-crackdown/

MarcusSA
Sep 23, 2007

The junk collector posted:

Speaking of not speaking of camps.

Why is Canada (and other governments) allowing the CCP to set up police stations in their countries?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-china-police-stations-citizen-crackdown/

Probably because they dont know about them

quote:


Italian police told the paper they had not been notified of the station’s opening in March

thetoughestbean
Apr 27, 2013

Keep On Shroomin
A person said that I hated Chinese people and women because I don’t think ghosts are real so now I’m curious about the Chinese relationship with the supernatural. Is belief in ghosts widespread? Are the ghost stories different than the types we have in America and Europe? I’m curious

ninjoatse.cx
Apr 9, 2005

Fun Shoe

thetoughestbean posted:

A person said that I hated Chinese people and women because I don’t think ghosts are real so now I’m curious about the Chinese relationship with the supernatural. Is belief in ghosts widespread? Are the ghost stories different than the types we have in America and Europe? I’m curious

non-believer ITT :stare:

thetoughestbean
Apr 27, 2013

Keep On Shroomin

ninjoatse.cx posted:

non-believer ITT :stare:

My dead grandpa showed up at the end of my bed one night to tell me that ghosts aren’t real and if he’s going to come back all the way from the dead to tell me that then I’m going to believe him

Horatius Bonar
Sep 8, 2011

thetoughestbean posted:

A person said that I hated Chinese people and women because I don’t think ghosts are real so now I’m curious about the Chinese relationship with the supernatural. Is belief in ghosts widespread? Are the ghost stories different than the types we have in America and Europe? I’m curious

In Hong Kong I was once waiting for someone, so I leaned up against a stone wall, and started whistling a little waiting tune.

People started crossing the middle of the street to avoid me with looks of horror on their faces.

It look me a while to realize I was leaning up against a graveyard wall, whistling, during ghost month

(Ghosts can grab you through walls, don't lean on any, whistling attracts ghosts, graveyards are always haunted, and during ghost month all that is even worse)

Grand Fromage
Jan 30, 2006

L-l-look at you bar-bartender, a-a pa-pathetic creature of meat and bone, un-underestimating my l-l-liver's ability to metab-meTABolize t-toxins. How can you p-poison a perfect, immortal alcohOLIC?


thetoughestbean posted:

A person said that I hated Chinese people and women because I don’t think ghosts are real so now I’m curious about the Chinese relationship with the supernatural. Is belief in ghosts widespread? Are the ghost stories different than the types we have in America and Europe? I’m curious

I can't offer data but everyone I ever brought it up with in China believed ghosts were real and was terrified of them. Easiest way to gently caress with students.

I've heard a lot about hungry ghosts but I never looked up the stories. I know there are a bunch of different ones.

My favorite Asia ghost thing was in Korea, not sure if it exists elsewhere, but you're not supposed to clean your apartment when you move because then the ghosts will know you're leaving and follow you. Absolute chad move by whichever lazy rear end originally invented that story to justify not cleaning.

Horatius Bonar posted:

whistling attracts ghosts

Whistling at night in Korea causes a snake to attack you.

McGavin
Sep 18, 2012

thetoughestbean posted:

A person said that I hated Chinese people and women because I don’t think ghosts are real so now I’m curious about the Chinese relationship with the supernatural. Is belief in ghosts widespread? Are the ghost stories different than the types we have in America and Europe? I’m curious

Asian condo owners at the University of B.C. are protesting plans to build a hospice nearby, saying they're afraid of plummeting property values -- and ghosts.

Tomn
Aug 23, 2007

And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands
I was having dinner recently with a mainlander, a Hong Konger, and a Malaysian Chinese and all nodded sagely and agreed with the Hong Konger that her recent apartment troubles most likely had to do with ghosts.

Also this isn't ghost-related exactly, but my mother once scolded me for carrying a book with me onto the casino floor in Macao during a family vacation since "book" is a homonym for "lose." Not that SHE believed it, of course, but it would make people upset and we can't be having that.

sticksy
May 26, 2004
Nap Ghost

thetoughestbean posted:

A person said that I hated Chinese people and women because I don’t think ghosts are real so now I’m curious about the Chinese relationship with the supernatural. Is belief in ghosts widespread? Are the ghost stories different than the types we have in America and Europe? I’m curious

Let’s put it this way - the Chinese Communist Party has a policy to censor or ban films that depict ghosts

mostly because they’re often a metaphor for corrupt government officials lol

ili
Jul 26, 2003


My cantonese partner doesn't really believe in the old superstitions because she's a modern educated woman but also she absolutely believes in them right down to her core. Long time ago I had a taiwanese partner and she would tell restaurants we had three plus one people to avoid saying four.

Empty Sandwich
Apr 22, 2008

goatse mugs

thetoughestbean posted:

My dead grandpa showed up at the end of my bed one night to tell me that ghosts aren’t real and if he’s going to come back all the way from the dead to tell me that then I’m going to believe him

lol

sticksy
May 26, 2004
Nap Ghost

ili posted:

Long time ago I had a taiwanese partner and she would tell restaurants we had three plus one people to avoid saying four.

lol

Related - my students flipped out when I mentioned my phone number had multiple 4’s in it

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost
maybe they keep those phone numbers in reserve to give to foreigners

Stink Billyums
Jul 7, 2006

MAGNUM

bob dobbs is dead posted:

maybe they keep those phone numbers in reserve to give to foreigners

a number ending in 4444 would be pretty sweet

BrigadierSensible
Feb 16, 2012

I've got a pocket full of cheese🧀, and a garden full of trees🌴.

Tomn posted:


Also this isn't ghost-related exactly, but my mother once scolded me for carrying a book with me onto the casino floor in Macao during a family vacation since "book" is a homonym for "lose." Not that SHE believed it, of course, but it would make people upset and we can't be having that.

I worked as a dealer in the Melbourne Casino for 2 1/2 years, and I can fully believe that.

Chinese people, Malaysian Chinese people, and Vietnamese people were our bread and butter. And the amount of seemingly minor random things that were considered "lucky" or "unlucky" was astounding. As was the deathly serious manner in which these things were treated.

But this also could just be the insanity of problem gamblers, as opposed to a cultural thing.

Kevin DuBrow
Apr 21, 2012

The uruk-hai defender has logged on.

sticksy posted:

Let’s put it this way - the Chinese Communist Party has a policy to censor or ban films that depict ghosts

mostly because they’re often a metaphor for corrupt government officials lol

Are there any articles on this? Everything I've read shows it stemming from superstition being viewed as "feudal" as opposed to the rational immortal science of Marxism.

Also I feel like the censors would be very bad at picking up subtext of any kind.

bones 4 beginners
Jan 7, 2018

"...a masterpiece that no one can read too often, or admire too much."
When looking for apartments in HK earlier this year, realtors would occasionally respond like this.



Getting a 6 month fixed period agreement in HK is tough so I'd let Satan himself claw on my walls to get one in a flat that isn't an utterly filthy shoebox.

thetoughestbean
Apr 27, 2013

Keep On Shroomin
I remember I had a classmate in elementary school who was Korean and requested that her homework get marked with a pen that wasn’t red. She said something about names being written in red was supposed to be for dead people iirc

Devils Affricate
Jan 22, 2010
In my experience, supernatural beliefs regarding ghosts are nearly ubiquitous among Chinese people. In the west, there seems to be a culture of telling children that ghosts aren't real and can't hurt you, even among people who secretly fear ghosts. In the east, it's more like "we don't talk or even joke about that poo poo but if it comes up yeah it's fuckin real." There are even home listings dedicated to selling at a discount if the property is significantly/recently haunted https://www.spacious.hk/en/hong-kong/resources/tragic-events

Devils Affricate fucked around with this message at 01:22 on Oct 3, 2022

McGavin
Sep 18, 2012

My wife is Chinese and Roman Catholic and she crosses her fingers every time she passes a graveyard, told her parents not to buy a house thats address was 44 Deepdale or something where the owner's kid had drowned in the pool, and won't let me watch any ghost hunting reality shows whenever she's around.

Shumagorath
Jun 6, 2001

McGavin posted:

My wife is Chinese and Roman Catholic
The Bo Jackson of guilt

Atopian
Sep 23, 2014

I need a security perimeter with Venetian blinds.

ili posted:

My cantonese partner doesn't really believe in the old superstitions because she's a modern educated woman but also she absolutely believes in them right down to her core.

Something like this is super common.
Ask a bunch of young/educated/city people about this, list off a bunch of beliefs, and some big % will be utterly ridiculous superstition, some big % will be real and dangerous.

Of course, if they're from different regions, different beliefs will swap categories, so then the argument starts in earnest. Which is hilarious.

But I mean, ask Germans if water has a special sort of energy in it, ask British people about what happened in India a couple of hundred years ago, ask Americans about their system of government. People have lots of unjustified or unjustifiable beliefs despite theoretically being educated in logic and critical thinking. And it's also hilarious to ask groups of them.

thetoughestbean
Apr 27, 2013

Keep On Shroomin

Atopian posted:

Something like this is super common.
Ask a bunch of young/educated/city people about this, list off a bunch of beliefs, and some big % will be utterly ridiculous superstition, some big % will be real and dangerous.

Of course, if they're from different regions, different beliefs will swap categories, so then the argument starts in earnest. Which is hilarious.

But I mean, ask Germans if water has a special sort of energy in it, ask British people about what happened in India a couple of hundred years ago, ask Americans about their system of government. People have lots of unjustified or unjustifiable beliefs despite theoretically being educated in logic and critical thinking. And it's also hilarious to ask groups of them.

Hey wait, a lot of Americans know that our system of government is fundamentally broken, we just don’t know how to fix it

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GoutPatrol
Oct 17, 2009

*Stupid Babby*

My wife and I are looking to buy a place, and we went to see a super cheap place near a nice part of Taichung 6 months ago. Huge 4bd/2br apartment with ample balcony space for laundry (although I would buy a dryer because my god, hanging laundry sucks.) I loved it. It would have been maybe 150,000 USD cheaper in comparison for a similar size and location, and age (which for Taiwanese homes, there is a significant difference if you are buying a place built pre-and-post 9/21 earthquake. Getting something made in the mid-90s has a much higher chance of being tofu construction)

Wife said absolutely not. Bad feng shui. Like everything that you could think of for bad feng shui this place had it. I was very furious, and I called my parents to complain. My dad said to me, "everything bad that happens in your life will now be blamed on living there if you buy it. Do you want to have 50 years of arguments about it?"

Good dad advice. Bad with money but hopefully good with life. Still looking for a place.

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