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Orio posted:It would be a war crime, but the evidence submitted isn't really sufficient to make any judgments. But what rule would this be breaking? I think being so extremely aggressive in prohibiting any discussion of potential Ukrainian wrongdoing is a little ridiculous. There's no evidence of it seemingly beyond the tweet so what should we talk about that isn't just making things up? Besides, it's a Russian source saying it. Of course they want to have an excuse for why Ukrainians are bad even when they're losing.
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Oct 4, 2022 15:26
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Shes Not Impressed posted:There's no evidence of it seemingly beyond the tweet so what should we talk about that isn't just making things up? Besides, it's a Russian source saying it. Of course they want to have an excuse for why Ukrainians are bad even when they're losing. All of that is irrelevant to the thread rule against cosplaying an ICC judge, besides tangentially making the content even less interesting to read than it was the last 10 times.
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Oct 4, 2022 15:32
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Why would Ukrainians ever wear a Z? Is there anything less desirable to be in Ukraine than a Russian soldier? What are they going to do? Sneak behind Russian lines and get beaten up and robbed by Russian soldiers who thinks they're Russian too? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 4, 2022 15:40
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e: nm
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Oct 4, 2022 15:43
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Would painting Z's on their own tanks fall under perfidy? Geneva convention states quote:Article 39. – Emblems of nationality I doubt this actually happened (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 4, 2022 15:48
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Please read the thread rules, people. I'm not going to tolerate an evening of people copy-pasting the Geneva Convention and making “legal arguments” about whether if a court would find that someone is a party to the conflict or something is their insignia. Especially on this occasion, when the sum of “evidence” is a third-party rumour filtered through a Russian “war correspondent”.Deteriorata posted:e: nm That was a perfectly fine post, and I have no idea why you deleted it. The only conversation I care to prevent here is a tedious derail about the Geneva convention. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 16:05 on Oct 4, 2022 |
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Oct 4, 2022 16:02
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This war has gotten too brutal for even Geneva conventions to help  https://twitter.com/kyivpost/status/1576979159959552002 https://twitter.com/cokedupoptions/status/1577005270500184065 https://twitter.com/lewis_baston/status/1576983673005834240 (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 4, 2022 16:37
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This is a really cool video of Ukrainian soldiers performing a bridging operation - including evac of a wounded soldier right at the beginning. big recommend. https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1577308466649120768?s=20&t=L2VZBwRMxF5CG_fbFOhGBw Apparently the Ukrainians are planning to push as deep in Luhansk as they can - warning from the local authorities https://twitter.com/liz_cookman/status/1577309482400489480?s=20&t=L2VZBwRMxF5CG_fbFOhGBw From Russia - apparently if you sign up for the FSB you can get out of frontline service (though it's reported FSB agents have been present in Ukraine for 'interrogations' (read: torture sessions) https://twitter.com/NoYardstick/status/1577282312018210818?s=20&t=NLQvF6wPbKh-EAP-IDo0MQ Really interesting article about the possible future of Russia under Putin - the author is very well-versed in modern Russian culture. Their blog is also quite good. https://twitter.com/NoYardstick/status/1577287057889976323?s=20&t=NLQvF6wPbKh-EAP-IDo0MQ Selections - there's a lot of good stuff, so sorry this got long quote:...
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Oct 4, 2022 16:44
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Really feels like they're just describing a dictatorship there
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Oct 4, 2022 16:50
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Some rumours about where the Russians may fall back to on the Kherson front. This would be a huge retreat if true https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1577331254764208129 Edit: I believe it's suggesting something like this: 
Chalks fucked around with this message at 17:43 on Oct 4, 2022 |
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Oct 4, 2022 17:33
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Tree Bucket posted:It's so weird following this war through twitter maps and forum posts. It's like... the Russian army is this kind of inert mass that just sits there getting bits sliced out of it by Ukrainian pincers, envelopments and strikes. Particularly when compared to the opening month of the war. This is what the conclusion of that looks like, probably. They expended their strength to make minor gains (especially once HIMARS started hitting their logistics) and now they're too understrength to resist, hence struggling to respond to even obvious Ukrainian maneuvers like taking Lyman, and needing to order a partial mobilization to try and bring more troops in. Their more experienced and trained troops are mostly dead, wounded, captured, escaped to back home, or exhausted from too many months at the front without rotation. Meanwhile, Ukraine was gradually integrating more and more Western weapons, and getting more and more new troops trained, either by themselves or by friendly nations, as they called for mobilization early. By this point Ukraine just has more troops, and due to being much less of a corrupt authoritarian poo poo hole, they're using them much more intelligently as well.
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Oct 4, 2022 17:36
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Chalks posted:Some rumours about where the Russians may fall back to on the Kherson front. This would be a huge retreat if true https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1577260136908800000
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Oct 4, 2022 17:40
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It's so weird to me how some Russian media people keep floating NATO is in Ukraine as... some kind of defense? If your army is getting dumpstered by your biggest enemy, isn't that still a pretty bad look? It's probably just cover for further escalation, and it's not like that kind of cognitive dissonance is uncommon, but still.
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Oct 4, 2022 17:51
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Failboattootoot posted:It's so weird to me how some Russian media people keep floating NATO is in Ukraine as... some kind of defense? If your army is getting dumpstered by your biggest enemy, isn't that still a pretty bad look? It's probably just cover for further escalation, and it's not like that kind of cognitive dissonance is uncommon, but still. A big driver of this war was racism. Imagine how the confederate army would have reacted if they'd gotten their rear end kicked trying to invade post-revolutionary Haiti. Nato is a big bad enemy. It's more tolerable to get your rear end kicked by a big powerful enemy than by a people you see as "lesser".
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Oct 4, 2022 17:54
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Failboattootoot posted:It's so weird to me how some Russian media people keep floating NATO is in Ukraine as... some kind of defense? If your army is getting dumpstered by your biggest enemy, isn't that still a pretty bad look? It's probably just cover for further escalation, and it's not like that kind of cognitive dissonance is uncommon, but still. Yes. But it’s the only way at this point to pretend they’re not losing to the people they consider their idiot hillbilly cousins.
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Oct 4, 2022 17:59
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:A big driver of this war was racism. Imagine how the confederate army would have reacted if they'd gotten their rear end kicked trying to invade post-revolutionary Haiti. I am sure if we dig into more bloodthirsty Vietnam War correspondence we would find numerous misattributions of local defeats to scary professional soviet "advisors"
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Oct 4, 2022 17:59
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Failboattootoot posted:It's so weird to me how some Russian media people keep floating NATO is in Ukraine as... some kind of defense? If your army is getting dumpstered by your biggest enemy, isn't that still a pretty bad look? It's probably just cover for further escalation, and it's not like that kind of cognitive dissonance is uncommon, but still.  From the start of the Ukraine project the propaganda has revolved around how scary and threatening NATO is. There's some notion that NATO is desperately pouring its entire strength into keeping NATO afloat against a small handful of elite Russian units on a limited special operation, which is part of the whole dance around mobilization: it's vitally important that Russia projects the image that it's not actually fighting with its full strength, because admitting that they've liquidated most of their conventional military capability and are still losing would be disastrous. But NATO has always been the evil empire being fought by plucky little Russia.
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Oct 4, 2022 18:00
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fatherboxx posted:Ideological and imperial cinci zoo sniper posted:The linguistic distinction is about as common and clear as a distinction between a brick and an apple, meaning that the only shift is with people who find it imperative to put an accent on Russian ethnicity for a reason, which is going to be highly dependent on what sort of people you’re hearing. It's hard to stay on top of this thread, but I wanted to say thanks for these responses! So basically it is exactly the red flag it seemed to be.
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Oct 4, 2022 18:05
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"I'm not getting any weaker," announces very strong man.
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Oct 4, 2022 18:06
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https://twitter.com/paulmcleary/status/1577343689382313984?s=20&t=OFkskxQUhHNvR9QpQN-dXQ
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Oct 4, 2022 18:24
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^^^ Weren't they going to send another dozen HIMARS? This is pretty  This is google translated with some manual fixes for our friends quote:"Crimeaisours" was the first stage of the "Ukrainian trap" designed for us. The old principle worked: give a little so that you can get everything later. Now it's already obvious. tl;dr: we owned ourselves so hard, it couldn't possibly be our fault
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Oct 4, 2022 18:28
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Important to not here that it's not an excess of 700k, but 700k in total. A lot of people travel for work, there are mixed families, truck drivers, etc., and many of them return. Kazakhstan published some stats, where out of 140k people who visited the country, at least half have already returned to Russia. The real number of people escaping mobilisation is probably close to 150-200k. Some more will try to leave, and some will return if they can't settle in the new place.
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Oct 4, 2022 18:29
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mobby_6kl posted:^^^ 18 announced, the timeline for those is 1 or 2 years, I don’t remember. 4 is the first, immediate batch. The reason for longer timeline is that I think these are rolling into Ukraine direct from factory, the question pending on the first batch.
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Oct 4, 2022 18:35
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mobby_6kl posted:^^^ I like how this whole thing rests on the assumption that Russian military intelligence consisted solely of watching Western news channels, with no other attempt to verify this information via, like, espionage or the like. Even when trying to explain away their failures as a Western plot they own themselves.
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Oct 4, 2022 18:44
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fatherboxx posted:I am sure if we dig into more bloodthirsty Vietnam War correspondence we would find numerous misattributions of local defeats to scary professional soviet "advisors" Analogy incoming! I'd say more like Rhodesians, South Africans, and the Portuguese bitching about Soviets and E. Germans. Sure, them being there had an outsized effect, but it was Africans doing the fighting. All of the former were avowed racists with a political need to define black Africans as "the lesser", even if they fought on the same side. Not that they could have actually done anything about the latter being in Africa, helping Africans. Not that any of what they did do served their ultimate aims. Africans won, remaining colonialists left or were integrated into the new order, and the Eastern Bloc kept friendly-ish relations while gaining arms contracts. I don't mean to paint a rosy picture about the Border Wars, or post-colonial Africa in general. Just letting a snowball roll down a hill.
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Oct 4, 2022 18:52
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mobby_6kl posted:^^^ "No way out" -Brought to you by the side who can literally just leave, abandon the locations they're occupying in the neighboring country they invaded, and the war ends. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 19:00 on Oct 4, 2022 |
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Oct 4, 2022 18:58
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Very good article on the NS sabotage and on how threatening this kind of hybrid action offers Russia extra rungs on the escalation ladder: "Experts say damage to the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines is a cynical use of a “gray zone” aggression that leaves few good options for retribution. “We have war-gamed this for years, we’ve always been a bit afraid that this is something that the Russians could do if they wanted to,” said Jim Townsend, who served as deputy assistant secretary of Defense for Europe and NATO during the Obama administration. “I think all of us have got to know that Putin has other cards that he can play besides conventional or nuclear, he’s got something in between — this critical infrastructure that can be a target.”" https://thehill.com/policy/international/3668946-pipeline-sabotage-is-mystery-but-putin-russia-are-prime-suspects/
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Oct 4, 2022 19:07
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Warbadger posted:"No way out" cinci zoo sniper posted:18 announced, the timeline for those is 1 or 2 years, I don’t remember. 4 is the first, immediate batch. The reason for longer timeline is that I think these are rolling into Ukraine direct from factory, the question pending on the first batch. Oh, thanks. I remember reading they were part of this package so I thought they'd be shipped out promptly. I'm hoping the reason is that more aren't currently needed, because Biden sure as hell has hundreds of them sitting in garages.
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Oct 4, 2022 19:08
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mobby_6kl posted:Weren't they going to send another dozen HIMARS? Yes, it's a different package. The US is providing support using multiple different mechanism. The one posted above is about the presidential drawdown authority, which allows the POTUS to send equipment from US military stocks. The 18 additional HIMARS were part of lend-lease, and were bought new from the manufacturer, not sent from DoD stocks. They will be delivered over a much longer timescale, it's something like one per month iirc.
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Oct 4, 2022 19:11
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Tomn posted:I like how this whole thing rests on the assumption that Russian military intelligence consisted solely of watching Western news channels, with no other attempt to verify this information via, like, espionage or the like. Influence operations feedback looping back into reporting on foreign sentiments seems to be a recurring problem. It makes sense, too: the people meant to be monitoring foreign media and discourse are going to report back on the rise in messaging that just happens to be what they're hoping to see or have been instructed to look out for. After a few cycles of that it's going to rapidly solidify the perception that the foreign position is strikingly similar to your own beliefs! At times you can see some of this happening with all the pro-Ukraine reporting on Russian telegram channels, which are being spammed with false reports from pro-Ukraine people and a few times now this has led to reported Ukrainian successes getting walked back, sometimes dozens of kilometers or more. Obviously I'm not saying that's the only reason why rumors spread, very much the opposite, it's just seems to consistently come up any time you are both trying to observe and influence some kind of social commons type space. Particularly with opposition sources, there's a widespread tendency on all sides to take negative news reported as likely credible because 'why would they make up bad news?' which neglects a variety of reasons why seemingly negative news might not be what it purports to be. With that said, man there are a lot of layers to unwrap wrt why Russian leadership got almost everything about Ukraine so wrong Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 19:17 on Oct 4, 2022 |
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Oct 4, 2022 19:12
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Russian sponsored disinformation campaigns coming back around to convince Russian leadership to conduct a failed invasion is pretty on point though.
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Oct 4, 2022 19:14
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Failboattootoot posted:It's so weird to me how some Russian media people keep floating NATO is in Ukraine as... some kind of defense? If your army is getting dumpstered by your biggest enemy, isn't that still a pretty bad look? It's probably just cover for further escalation, and it's not like that kind of cognitive dissonance is uncommon, but still. It is pretty hilarious that some of the Russian nationalists had this mentality of Russia taking on all of NATO when individial countries like Finland at this point would give Russia a run for its money. The Russian military and it's preparation/ ability just looks...sad at this point. Like put it out of its misery sad. "Superpower" is a loving joke. TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 19:37 on Oct 4, 2022 |
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Oct 4, 2022 19:15
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I'm actually kinda curious about the cultural impact this is going to have given the absolute botched nature of the Russian response. By this I mean the Soviets and Russia have been a staple, to be feared, antagonist in lots of media and peer to peer war games and I'm wondering if in the near future we are going to see a sharp decline in this as a result of how bad they are performing with a pivot to someone else.
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Oct 4, 2022 19:20
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Telsa Cola posted:I'm actually kinda curious about the cultural impact this is going to have given the absolute botched nature of the Russian response. I think that NATO both got a reason to exist in the 21st century and got to go "lmao look at these fuckin clowns compared to us", which is a huge loss of Russian clout. I think Russia will increasingly be seen in the vein of North Korea by the rest of the world: a wierd country nobody really talks about unless it's about some insane thing they believe/ did.
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Oct 4, 2022 19:30
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TulliusCicero posted:It is pretty hilarious that some of the Russian nationalists had this mentality of Russia taking on all of NATO when individial countries like Finland at this point would give Russia a run for its money. They mis-spelled "subpar power". Also it sounds like Ukraine has been having fun with Russian comms, since they operate mainly on commercial analog unscrambled sets at this point, giving fake confusing/conflicting orders, and then hard jamming the frequencies, effectively confusing and isolating pockets/units as they roll in a coordinated assault.
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Oct 4, 2022 19:31
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Telsa Cola posted:I'm actually kinda curious about the cultural impact this is going to have given the absolute botched nature of the Russian response. I would argue media largely moved on to the middle eastern conflicts in recent years and this conflict would shift the focus back. Media in general has never had a problem with enemies that are threats on paper hindered by absolute incompetence. It seems like that's the preferred archetype. I'm sure we will get a Call of Duty in this setting before long. What are the alternatives really? China seems like a poor pick given how sensitive the government is over there about being portrayed as the bad guys.
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Oct 4, 2022 19:32
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Influence operations feedback looping back into reporting on foreign sentiments seems to be a recurring problem. It makes sense, too: the people meant to be monitoring foreign media and discourse are going to report back on the rise in messaging that just happens to be what they're hoping to see or have been instructed to look out for. After a few cycles of that it's going to rapidly solidify the perception that the foreign position is strikingly similar to your own beliefs! Before the war, any one of those assholes could've walked across the border and asked what's up. Had to be some sort of huge failure in communicating this information to the dear leader.
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Oct 4, 2022 19:38
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mobby_6kl posted:^^^ "In Ukraine, Russia has been made into an insane monster". Yeah, I don't know what might've given them such an impression. Can't think of anything right now, really.
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Oct 4, 2022 19:43
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Telsa Cola posted:I'm actually kinda curious about the cultural impact this is going to have given the absolute botched nature of the Russian response. The greatest threat from this all imo is not clancychat Russia shenanigans but the us applying Russian standards to China and finding out the hard way. Institutional rot is a hell of a drug and while Russia is the Olympic gold medalist the US is an up and comer.
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Oct 4, 2022 19:49
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