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Edit: Leaf’s #1 projection page snipe hell yeah. Lol Leafs In 2016-17 the Pittsburgh Penguins were the preseason favourite to win it all according to this model — and they did. That was the first season of the model’s existence and though it’s undergone some changes under the hood since, the chief principle remains the same. The goal — utilize a total value stat to project every player’s performance for the season and add up those values for every team to estimate how strong each team will be. It’s far from perfect — each year we go into where exactly it might be wrong with previews, and where it went wrong with a year-end review — but at the top, the model does have a very strong track record. After Pittsburgh came Washington in 2017-18 (ranked second), Tampa Bay in 2019-20 (ranked first), Tampa Bay in 2020-21 (ranked second), and Colorado in 2021-22 (ranked first). That’s a top-two team according to the model winning it all in five of six seasons. Not bad! That makes it a pretty big deal to be ranked first with Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and Colorado all winning championships at their apex. There are exceptions to the rule (Nashville was top-ranked in 2018-19 and the eventual champions, St. Louis, were … way off at 18th that year), but in general the model has a good handle on who the league’s best team is going into the season. And that best team usually delivers. This year that best team is the Toronto Maple Leafs, a franchise that has spent six years failing to prove it belongs with the likes of Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and Colorado. It’s also a club that’s spent six years meticulously building to this moment. It’s as cliche as it gets for this club in particular, but … is this finally the year for Toronto?  The projection It’s Year 7 for this Leafs core and while the team has technically made the playoffs every year, they haven’t won a thing — losing in a winner-take-all matchup five times in a row. Depending on your patronage, it’s been either maddening or hilarious to witness with the talent this team has amassed. Some of those years were expected losses. The first series against Washington was Toronto’s first taste of playoff action and they were rightfully heavy underdogs. The Leafs were closer against Boston in Year 2, but were again not favoured. The tide started shifting after that though where the next season against Boston was a 50-50 bet. That was followed by three straight series where Toronto was favoured. All losses. It didn’t matter if the Leafs had a 20 percent, 40 percent, 50 percent, 60 percent or 80 percent chance — it was the same result every time. A first-round loss. With that in mind, it might be difficult for some to see Toronto as the preseason favourite to win it all because the team has proved for six years that all it knows how to do in the playoffs is lose. We get it. But just because it hasn’t happened yet doesn’t mean it never will and it’s clear from last season’s series against Tampa Bay that the Leafs are closer than ever to breaking through. Oddsmakers have Toronto second behind Colorado while two independent team sources (neither from Toronto) have the Leafs with the second-best odds as well. Having them at the top shouldn’t be that far fetched. The Leafs weren’t far off from Colorado, Tampa Bay, and Florida last year at the top of the league and all three lost a lot of talent in the offseason. Toronto, in comparison, really only lost some players around the edges. Toronto’s projection this season is lofty at 110.5 points. The Leafs are not just favourites, they’re comfortably, and perhaps controversially, clear-cut favourites — a full 3.4 points ahead of the next-best team. Yes, there are some specific players overrated by the model (we’ll get to them) that create such a difference, but that’s true of a lot of teams. Even with corrections closer to their true value, Toronto has enough padding over the next-best team that it wouldn’t change much about the team’s placement here. Toronto would be at the top regardless. For the Leafs that means they’re a near lock to make the playoffs at 98 percent, have a strong chance to win the Atlantic at 46 percent, a very strong chance to be in the league’s top five at 70 percent and a decent chance at the Presidents’ Trophy at 25 percent. The team has a 92 percent chance of clearing 100 points this season. It would be extremely difficult for the Leafs to have an unsuccessful regular season. A strong regular season is a given for this team, and it’s one most expect. Tell most fans that the Leafs have the best shot at the Presidents’ Trophy and they likely won’t bat an eyelash. Tell those same fans that the team has a 63 percent chance to finally win a round and the best chance of any team to win it all at 14 percent and they might be a little less understanding. To some, measuring the probability of winning the Presidents’ trophy and winning the Stanley Cup require two separate ideologies. Maybe they have a point, the league’s best teams don’t always win. But the best teams usually have a strong regular season and can parlay that with a deep playoff run — and they can usually be projected using data. The best clubs, the ones who are heavy threats to win either the Presidents’ Trophy or the Stanley Cup are both usually very strong on paper. The Leafs fit that bill. The model has been very good at picking those clubs in five of the last six preseasons. This year it’s picking the Leafs — and while that’s for good reason, that doesn’t mean the team is without its flaws. And there’s one extremely obvious one that splashes some cold water on this optimistic forecast. The big question Can Toronto really contend with a goaltending tandem of Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov? If nothing else, we know Toronto, as constituted, can play at a 113-point regular-season pace with some of the absolute worst goaltending in the league. For them, that’s a start — and it’s exactly what they did after Jan. 1 in 2021-22. From that point on, Jack Campbell, Petr Mrazek and Erik Kallgren combined for an .887 save percentage (27th in the league) and an .891 at even strength (32nd). Individually, their goals saved above expected were as follows. Kallgren at minus-7.49 in 14 games; Mrazek at minus-9.54 in 17; and Campbell at minus-21.1. That last one was the worst in the league by about 4.5 goals. Not what you want from your starter. Overall, can’t get much worse than that. If you want an explanation for why the Leafs overhauled their goaltending group in the offseason, you’ve got your answer. Mrazek was a failed experiment. Campbell, for all his heroics earlier in the season, would’ve been a gamble to return at any number, let alone the five years and $25 million that landed him in Edmonton. Part of the reason to believe that Toronto can subsist on half-decent goaltending, aside from the simple fact that they subsisted for much of the season on something much worse, is the strength of the defensive group. Their expected goals against/60 last season was 2.65, third lowest in the league. Only Calgary and Boston put up better numbers in that spot, and they have (deserved) reps as two of the league’s five-on-five heavyweights. Toronto’s blue line, when healthy, is largely unchanged. If anything, it’ll benefit from a full season of Mark Giordano on the left side. Throw in Toronto’s offensive firepower — last season, they were top three in goals for, both actual and expected — and you can see why the bar is so low. Teams with this much ability on both sides of the puck typically don’t need much in net. The Avs gave us all a crash course in the concept during the postseason, when an eye injury set the table for a tough stretch by Darcy Kuemper. In Colorado’s full playoff run, Kuemper won 10 games. In seven of those wins, he made 23 saves or less. His backup, Pavel Francouz, put up a .906 save percentage in seven appearances, winning six. Colorado’s guys, in other words, didn’t have to be great. What they did have to be, though, was capable of rising to the occasion a time or two in each series. Kuemper had a 37 for 39 game against Tampa Bay in the Final. Francouz won Games 2 and 3 against Edmonton while stopping 51 of 53. The workload wasn’t always huge, but the stakes certainly were — and that’s where Colorado made it happen. Campbell, meanwhile, had two outstanding games against the Lightning, and we all know how that worked out. The Leafs are banking on Murray and Samsonov, two goalies dumped to varying degrees by their previous teams, to change the outcome. Murray is the likely opening-night starter, and he’ll get the first crack to running as far with the 1A job as he can take it. In 20 games with Ottawa last season, Murray showed signs of his past life for the first time in three seasons, a 9.06 save percentage, meager as it seems, was Murray’s best since Pittsburgh. More encouragingly for Toronto, his goals saved above expected was 3.79, miles above the minus-15.22 and minus-13.98 in his first two seasons with Ottawa and his best since the 16.99 during his second Stanley Cup run with the Penguins. A repeat there would be the definition of “good enough.” It’s also fair to wonder whether it’s in the cards. Murray’s track record of brutal play, before last season’s swerve, was long, and he’s dealt with injuries all the while. Having another viable option is necessary — and Samsonov, on balance, is another risk. He’s coming off a situation in Washington where the Caps, owing to his first-round pedigree, gave him plenty of opportunities to become “The Guy” in a post-Braden Holtby world. He couldn’t do it, eventually splitting time with Vitek Vanecek and failing to put up a month’s worth of above-.900 play after the holidays. His full-season GSAx of minus-11.15 was behind Campbell and a tick head of Mrazek. He’s still only 25, with a decent run as a rookie in 2019-20, and his age and talent level make him an intriguing option, but reliably solid he is not. All that will be enough to get Toronto through the regular season. The playoffs are another story — three bad nights can ruin everything. That’s been true for 55 years running. The wildcard Is John Tavares still a star player? High expectations come with high salaries, and John Tavares, on the back half of his deal, is no longer living up to the $11 million cap hit the Maple Leafs signed him to back in 2018. It’s money that only the elite tend to make, like Artemi Panarin, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and Patrick Kane. So the pressure is on Tavares to stay at that star caliber. Does he still have it in him? Through 280 games in Toronto, Tavares has 274 points. Most recently, he tallied 76 in 79 games, scoring at the second-best pace of his career. But that did fall slightly short of expectations. Based on the quality of his shot generated he was expected to be closer to 35 goals when he was stuck at 27. That’s before even accounting for his shooting talent. Not finishing his chances is a problem, but Tavares had the entire summer to shake it off. Even without the goals to show for it, the captain still is generating a high rate of quality looks for his team. That scoring chance generation is a reason why Tavares was a positive on the team’s offensive creation at five-on-five. It wasn’t to the game-breaking extent of Matthews or Marner, but that’s what should be expected. Tavares still was on the ice for his highest rate of expected goals and actual goals at five-on-five since his first season with the team. Even with that in mind, it’s fair to say that expectations do have to be reasonable at this point in his career. Aging curves point to players peaking in their early-to-mid 20s, before trending down in their late 20s and declining more rapidly in their 30s. At 32, Tavares is unquestionably in that downswing. His top-player comps point to two possible paths: maintaining his level for another couple of seasons like Patrick Marleau, or starting to feel a sharp decline like Jason Spezza and Jeff Carter when they were in his age range. The Maple Leafs are obviously betting on the former, and the support around him in Toronto should help him stay on that trajectory. So star play is still possible for Tavares, even if it takes more work to get him there. One way to maximize his game is considering a shift to wing to alleviate some of the responsibilities of playing down the middle. Another is ensuring he has high-end wings to help drive the line if he sticks at center. But even after what many would point to as a disappointing year because he couldn’t finish his chances consistently enough, Tavares is still producing at the rate of a low-end first-line center at almost a point-per-game pace, with positives below the surface. That’s why Tavares still ranks as one of the best 2Cs around the league. It’s not to the advantage it was when he signed, but with Matthews soaring to new heights, the Leafs still have one of the best one-two punches in the game. The core Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, William Nylander, Morgan Rielly, TJ Brodie, Matt Murray Toronto’s successes and failures all come back to the core, a group of players that’s largely remained unchanged during Toronto’s “Playoff Frustration Era.” This team has been built around a foundation of cornerstone draft picks — Matthews, Marner, William Nylander and Morgan Rielly — and then supplemented with a couple of high-end free-agent acquisitions in Tavares and TJ Brodie. As of now, it’s the league’s third-best core behind only Colorado and Boston — both of which have similar elite talent up front and similar (but lesser) risks in net. The key difference is the presence of a franchise defenseman. Rielly is a fantastic player, one who arguably doesn’t get the flowers he deserves for what he’s been for the Leafs. He’s a legitimate number one defenseman who drives offense to a tremendous degree. Rielly doesn’t drive shot contributions at an elite rate, but the quality of those shots is extremely strong and his 4.5 scoring chance contributions per 60 ranked top five in the league among defensemen last year. He was also top five in zone entries per 60, joining the rush a tremendous amount, and top five in controlled zone exit percentage, creating a clean exit on a high percentage of breakouts. With the puck on his stick, Rielly is one of the league’s very best defensemen. But he’s not a franchise player and that comes from his play without the puck. That’s always been a problem throughout his career and remained last season. With Rielly on the ice, the Leafs allowed 2.52 expected goals against per 60, which was in line with league average, but last on the team by a lot. Rielly makes up for that with his offensive ability, but he still gives a lot more back than a team would like from its top dog. A team with Cup-winning aspirations doesn’t need to be perfect, but Toronto’s hopes of going deep rely on Rielly cleaning up his defensive-zone deficiencies. Having the depth on the blue line that Toronto currently does should mask that and Brodie’s presence, in particular, has been a stabilizing force. Brodie has helped boost Rielly’s impact at five-on-five defensively, but there’s still room for more. For Toronto, it’s always been about the Big Four up front. It’s the team’s top forwards that make the Leafs such an explosive offensive team. That peaked last year with the team’s highest goals-per-game rate (3.80), power-play percentage (27.3 percent), expected goals per 60 (2.87) and actual goals-per-60 (3.14) in this era. Toronto ranked in the league’s top three across the board in those marks and that’s largely because of the team’s best forwards. Toronto’s top quartet is projected to be worth 16.3 combined wins. That’s the highest in the league by 1.3 wins over Boston. Does it make sense to dedicate half of the salary cap to just four guys? It does when they provide more than half the value of the projected best team. That starts with Matthews, last year’s most valuable player. He possesses the extremely rare combination of finishing talent and two-way ability that makes him a threat for the Rocket Richard Trophy and the Selke Trophy. Matthews is arguably the league’s most complete player and it’s what won him the Hart trophy last season after scoring 60 goals in 73 games while also earning 64 percent of the expected goals. Relative to teammates, only three forwards had a bigger impact on expected goals than Matthews last season at five-on-five, with only one, Patrice Bergeron, doing it at the top of the lineup. It’s why he’s projected for 6.09 wins, a slight hair ahead of Connor McDavid at 6.04 wins (the actual depth charts round up or down based on ice-time distribution). The duo join Sidney Crosby before 2013-14 as the only players to start the season with a win projection greater than six. As for Matthews’ placement ahead of McDavid … a 0.05-win difference is essentially meaningless. It’s based entirely on regular-season data and shaded towards the most recent season where Matthews was the rightful MVP. But excluding playoff data means ignoring McDavid’s historic performance that swiftly stole back his rightful title of Best Player In The World. Nothing wrong with second (or third for the Cale Makar stans) best if the end result is six wins of value for the Leafs. The way Matthews makes his hay is by being the league’s biggest in-zone threat. McDavid thrives off the rush, but it’s Matthews who delivers off the cycle. That not only allows the Leafs to create a lot of offense with Matthews on the ice, it eats up the clock by essentially defending 200 feet away from the net. The best defense is usually a good offense and the Leafs have that in spades with their top line, a trio that thrives off puck possession. Off the cycle, Matthews creates twice as many chances compared to the league average and led the league with 21.9 chances generated. Matthews doesn’t enter the zone with control as much as other elite puck carriers, but when he does he has a strong proficiency of making things happen. Of his 13.2 controlled entries per 60, 41 percent turn into a scoring chance. Marner, his on-and-off-ice bestie, is even stronger doing it 50 percent of the time. Both players were in the top 10 league-wide for entries leading to scoring chances despite having way fewer controlled entries per 60. While last year was obviously huge for Matthews, it was also a big season for Marner who was named the NHL’s top right winger for the second straight year. Marner faced big pressure after a very disappointing postseason in 2021 and rose to the occasion. It’s easy to forget that Marner actually started the season ice cold given how strong he finished. That really manifested in 2022 after he returned from injury — that’s where the top line really took off. Matthews was able to keep his goal production steady and his on-ice impacts elite in Marner’s absence — a testament to his place among the league’s very best in Tier 1A — but Marner’s return sparked a transcendent run for the duo. From January 1 onward the dynamic duo were an absolutely unstoppable force, genuinely looking like the league’s two best players. The duo earned 65 percent of the expected goals while scoring over five goals-per-60 at five-on-five. In all situations, Marner had 76 points in 48 games while Matthews had 40 goals and 73 points in 46 games, good for fourth and fifth in the league respectively. Marner has always been one of the game’s very best passers and was top five in high-danger assists per 60. But what made his game so special last year over the back half was that he finally found his scoring touch. Marner scored six goals in his first 24 games of the season, but exploded for 29 over his final 48. Neither pace is sustainable, but for the entire year that’s a 35-goal season and a 40-goal pace. Marner’s game has always been compared to Patrick Kane’s, and Kane was at his best when he added goal-scoring prowess to his arsenal. Marner did the same last year where the respect for his shot made him a bigger passing threat. That’s boosted his value considerably and makes his partnership with Matthews downright terrifying. Their chemistry is undeniable. Nylander slots in on Tavares’s right side, and they’re a duo that have more to give defensively. They were unfairly maligned for a lot of goals against and while that’s not all on them, they were giving up more chances against than the rest of the team. There should be a bounce back this year with the duo earning 56 percent of the expected goals last year, but getting outscored on the season. Tavares is still an impact player as discussed earlier, but it’s Nylander’s continued emergence as an offensive force that will propel the team’s second line forward. He’s a force off the rush and one of the league’s best at creating high-danger chances. Nylander’s 4.3 high-danger shot contributions per 60 was one of the best marks in the league last season. The biggest question mark for the Leafs is obviously in net. As long as one of Matt Murray or Ilya Samsonov — whoever becomes the starter — can be an improvement over Campbell last year, the team’s skaters should be able to take care of the rest. That’s not as high a bar to clear as many are making it out to be. The support The supporting cast kicks off with an analytical darling who was the center of age-related conversations in the rookie race last year. Michael Bunting became quite the topic of conversation after thriving alongside Matthews and Marner on that top line. It’s a position many would have excelled in thanks to the support of their elite play, but there is something to actually keeping up with those caliber players and complementing them. In 556 minutes of five-on-five play, the trio earned a 66.2 percent expected goals rate, and their actual goals percentage was one tick higher. The drawback is how many goals against the Maple Leafs conceded with them on the ice — a rate of 3.29 per 60 that was far above expectations because goaltending only earned an .871 save percentage in those minutes. But the line outscored their problems (61 to 31) with one of the best scoring rates in the league of 6.74 per 60. Maybe the model does need to calm down a bit with Bunting — 2.8 wins may be a lofty projection for this player. But keep in mind how much influence last year’s 79-game performance holds out of his 105-game career. The model accounts for three years worth of data while being weighed for recency, and there isn’t much to base on before 2021-22. While the first line is likely settled with this combination, they have some options below. Core players Tavares and Nylander likely are on the second line, and supporting forward Alex Kerfoot could complete the line — whether he’s asked to play center or wing. He’s a good forechecker who can bring the puck into the zone with control at an above-average rate. While he’s coming off a career year with 2.44 points per 60, there is still work to do individually in the offensive department. Another middle-six option in the supporting cast is Pierre Engvall, who has the opportunity to show a bit more at both five-on-five and on the penalty kill since Ilya Mikheyev’s free-agent departure. The winger’s ability to create offense in transition could provide more secondary scoring. Otherwise, the bottom six features some low-risk depth players. The likes of David Kampf, Calle Jarnkork, and Zach Aston-Reese all add some defensive strengths. But no one really overwhelms, hence the iffy ratings for both lines. The bottom six as pictured only provides a collective value of 0.2 wins. What contributes to the Maple Leafs’ second-place ranking in supporting cast, despite the lackluster bottom-six, is the potential overvalution of players like Bunting and their defensive depth. Toronto now gets a full season of Mark Giordano who proved to be a good deadline addition last spring. He was a good puck mover who took some pressure off the rest of the blue line since the veteran was able to absorb minutes against tough opponents. The one concern here is his age, and whether the 39-year-old will decline below his projected value of 1.6 wins. A player who fell short of expectations, on the other hand, was Jake Muzzin. Whether that was due to some injuries sustained during the year or overall individual shortcomings, a rebound would really solidify the left side. A repeat of last year only drags down the supporting cast further. On the right behind Brodie, with an injured Timothy Liljegren out of the mix right now, the options are Justin Holl and Rasmus Sandin. Liljegren’s value, like Bunting’s, is pumped up by strong underlying numbers in 2021-22, which is where almost all of his NHL data comes from. Otherwise, Holl can be used in more of a defensive role, likely with Giordano, to shut down opponents. Sandin, who recently signed a two-year contract, has the chance over the next few weeks to show his puck-moving skills and earn a more mainstay role. The best case The end of 1967 jokes, forever. The worst case Hmm, there’s many possible worst-case scenarios — but this one feels the most painful. The Leafs do win the Presidents’ Trophy as the league’s top team to create the highest expectations possible. They draw the pesky Ottawa Senators in the opening round, amplifying the rivalry effect. Toronto cruises to an easy 3-0 series lead, before blowing three straight games — leading to what else, but an opening round Game 7. The Leafs jump out to a commanding 6-1 lead and look dominant. With half the game left, the Leafs look ready to exorcize their demons — until it all comes falling apart. Ottawa scores to make it 6-2. Then 6-3, and 6-4 within quick succession. With the net empty early it’s 6-5. Then with just a single second left: 6-6. Overtime. Toronto dominates play for three straight overtimes, but they can’t solve Cam Talbot. In the seventh period of the game, Nikita Zaitsev scores on a routine shot from the point. It’s over. The Leafs lose. Six straight first-round exits ending in a Game 7 (or equivalent). A new era of 67 jokes has been ushered in as legions of Leafs fans everywhere contemplate why this is the life they chose. Something like that. The bottom line It doesn’t matter what the model says. It doesn’t matter what we write. It doesn’t matter what the Leafs did last season. It doesn’t matter what the Leafs did for 54 years before that. It doesn’t matter what happens in October. It doesn’t matter what happens in January. What matters is what happens on the ice in April, May and June. The Leafs know that all too well. On paper, this is Toronto’s year. Time for them to actually prove it.
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Oct 5, 2022 13:30
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Duckman2008 posted:A whole bunch of words but lol, gently caress the Leafs.
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Oct 5, 2022 13:36
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That bottom-six and goaltending is god awful
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Oct 5, 2022 13:55
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It’s funny how in most advanced stats models it’s goaltending that seems the most important, but Dom’s is “had bad goalies last year, thus goaltending not important for best team in league” What about when Murray gets hurt for half the season like usual and they have to call up somebody even worse?
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Oct 5, 2022 14:06
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I cannot believe Dubas is hanging the Maple Leafs Stanley Cup chances and his future career prospects on Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov not being terrible.
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Oct 5, 2022 14:08
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The Dirty Burger posted:It’s funny how in most advanced stats models it’s goaltending that seems the most important, but Dom’s is “had bad goalies last year, thus goaltending not important for best team in league” Again, while I enjoy these previews (obviously), I don’t really take them super seriously. And Don’s model def just doesn’t rate goalies well.
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Oct 5, 2022 14:09
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The Dirty Burger posted:It’s funny how in most advanced stats models it’s goaltending that seems the most important, but Dom’s is “had bad goalies last year, thus goaltending not important for best team in league” even worse, Murray might be healthy the whole season
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Oct 5, 2022 14:14
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Worth pointing out that it really doesn’t seem like that bottom 6 Dom is projecting for the Leafs will be accurate based on camp, unless one of Keefe/Dubas big-brains themselves again it should look a little better. The Dirty Burger posted:It’s funny how in most advanced stats models it’s goaltending that seems the most important, but Dom’s is “had bad goalies last year, thus goaltending not important for best team in league” The point he’s making is that for half the season last year the Leafs did have worse goaltending than Murray, like significantly and notably, and they ended up with 115 points. Every fan of a team with bad goaltending thinks their goalie was the worst in the league, but from January onward the Leafs had everyone beat. It’s not hard to see why the projection doesn’t really care that the Leafs shuffled bad goalie deck chairs once you look into the numbers. The frustrating, mind-boggling thing is why not get better goalies for the same loving money which would have made the Leafs a legitimate contender instead of an on-paper one.
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Oct 5, 2022 14:39
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https://twitter.com/ATFulemin/status/1577655362756427777
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Oct 5, 2022 14:45
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Duckman2008 posted:Can Toronto really contend with a goaltending tandem of Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov? (No.)
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Oct 5, 2022 14:47
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The Maple Leafs can suck my rear end forever and ever amen
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Oct 5, 2022 14:48
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I hope that Auston decides he wants to play somewhere else, but only after his NTC kicks in.
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Oct 5, 2022 15:05
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Koopa Kid posted:The point he’s making is that for half the season last year the Leafs did have worse goaltending than Murray, like significantly and notably, and they ended up with 115 points. Every fan of a team with bad goaltending thinks their goalie was the worst in the league, but from January onward the Leafs had everyone beat. idk my goaltender was dogshit garbage and then your team went and signed him so
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Oct 5, 2022 15:32
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https://twitter.com/kevinweekes/status/1577667460064591874?s=46&t=BU6ywRBZeqAe6rn6tKXLIg gently caress me up, Pierre
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Oct 5, 2022 15:37
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Go habs https://twitter.com/CanadiensMTL/status/1577644826044108801?s=20&t=j6qdo84sPLPEkA7zxV9vcQ
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Oct 5, 2022 15:39
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Chad Sexington posted:idk my goaltender was dogshit garbage and then your team went and signed him so same, weird
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Oct 5, 2022 15:55
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Chad Sexington posted:idk my goaltender was dogshit garbage and then your team went and signed him so Wanna guess who had the much better playoff series between Samsonov and Campbell?
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Oct 5, 2022 15:56
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pseudodragon posted:Go habs Was this the sexpest dude?
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Oct 5, 2022 16:21
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Montreal hoping everyone forgot he's a sex offender I guess.
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Oct 5, 2022 16:24
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Koopa Kid posted:Every fan of a team with bad goaltending thinks their goalie was the worst in the league, but from January onward the Leafs had everyone beat. Hey hold on now, the Wings had multiple games last season where they yanked Alex Nedeljkovic, put in Thomas Greiss, and Greiss was so bad that they put Nedeljkovic back in
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Oct 5, 2022 16:35
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:Was this the sexpest dude? That's him!
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Oct 5, 2022 16:38
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https://twitter.com/billmeltzer/status/1577686719390007297?t=7I_KyMCMTLEwxHpEc3cBtg&s=19
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Oct 5, 2022 16:50
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shyduck posted:https://twitter.com/billmeltzer/status/1577686719390007297?t=7I_KyMCMTLEwxHpEc3cBtg&s=19 That's not too surprising. He's waiver exempt and he got absolutely clowned last night by Cizikas
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Oct 5, 2022 16:55
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the flyers are so bad lol they're easily gonna be the worst team in the league
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Oct 5, 2022 17:03
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I'm sure he'll get a better look once a spot frees up on the roster when they trade away Sanheim for nothing and I walk into traffic
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Oct 5, 2022 17:08
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DJExile posted:That's not too surprising. He's waiver exempt and he got absolutely clowned last night by Cizikas Cackled like a lunatic watching that. I thought preseason games were supposed to be boring! https://twitter.com/NYIslanders/status/1577496759986790401
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Oct 5, 2022 17:16
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Excited for many a Tort's gif this year.
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Oct 5, 2022 17:18
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rex rabidorum vires posted:Excited for many a Tort's gif this year. But not next year because his rear end is gone before December, right?
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Oct 5, 2022 17:20
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I'm guessing he's going to say 'gently caress this poo poo' and go back to his dogs by April when the weather gets nice.
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Oct 5, 2022 17:27
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xzzy posted:But not next year because his rear end is gone before December, right? he will be gone by thanksgiving
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Oct 5, 2022 17:28
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Matthews scoring half a point higher than McDavid has me questioning this guy's model...
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Oct 5, 2022 17:28
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Spelling Mitsake posted:Matthews scoring half a point higher than McDavid has me questioning this guy's model... It's likely to do with the fact that McDavid hasn't even glanced in the direction of his own zone for the past five years. triple sulk posted:the flyers are so bad lol Yes, but they will make us laugh every night, and after all isn't that which brings us the most joy in life the most important?
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Oct 5, 2022 17:32
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Dom addresses Matthews vs. McDavid in the write-upquote:As for Matthews’ placement ahead of McDavid … a 0.05-win difference is essentially meaningless. It’s based entirely on regular-season data and shaded towards the most recent season where Matthews was the rightful MVP. But excluding playoff data means ignoring McDavid’s historic performance that swiftly stole back his rightful title of Best Player In The World. Boils down to "close enough, I don't feel like changing something and then running all these numbers again"
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Oct 5, 2022 17:33
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people keep talking about the Blackhawks but I don't think everyone fully realizes how truly bad the Flyers are
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Oct 5, 2022 17:35
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ThinkTank posted:It's likely to do with the fact that McDavid hasn't even glanced in the direction of his own zone for the past five years. This isn't really true. He's improved to "fine" defensively or at least in terms of rates against.
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Oct 5, 2022 17:38
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Chuck Fletcher deserves recognition for his work.
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Oct 5, 2022 17:38
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triple sulk posted:people keep talking about the Blackhawks but I don't think everyone fully realizes how truly bad the Flyers are It's the difference between trying and failing, and trying to fail.
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Oct 5, 2022 17:40
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Spelling Mitsake posted:Matthews scoring half a point higher than McDavid has me questioning this guy's model... Note it's a .05 difference, like a 20th of a win, not half. Like the difference is in the who cares, close enough range.
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Oct 5, 2022 17:40
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Koopa Kid posted:Wanna guess who had the much better playoff series between Samsonov and Campbell? Samsonov was decent in the playoffs this year, yes, but it helped that Florida forgot to have a PP.
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Oct 5, 2022 17:45
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triple sulk posted:people keep talking about the Blackhawks but I don't think everyone fully realizes how truly bad the Flyers are Difference is the Blackhawks and Yotes are intentionally bad. The Flyers are in cap hell and yet still trying to convince fans and themselves that they can definitely bounce back and begging people to buy tickets.
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Oct 5, 2022 17:53
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