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Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013




https://news.zerkalo.io/economics/23619.html

Looks like Luka finally caved in. Imo this is the end, I am a Belarusian but cannot make any prediction whatsoever of how everyone will react

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Saladman
Jan 12, 2010

Chill Monster posted:

I see where you are coming from, and realistically, I would do the same too. However, offshoring and not disclosing large amounts of capital is never a good look, especially when you are running for president on a platform of anti-corruption. I am not trying to make Zelinskyy into some kind of villain, as what he did was pretty much par-for-the-course for rich Ukrainian guys, but it is still problematic in my opinion, and more of a symptom of underlying problems in Ukraine. Again, I think that Zelinksyy will serve as a bellwether for corruption after the war. If he repatriates all of that capital after the war, that would set an amazing precedent. Consider these https://www.occrp.org/en/the-pandora-papers/pandora-papers-reveal-offshore-holdings-of-ukrainian-president-and-his-inner-circle https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/4/pandora-papers-ukraine-leader-seeks-to-justify-offshore-accounts

Yeah, although he did it way before becoming president. I would also be kind of surprised if what he did wasn't fully legal, if it looks shady optically to some people. Like personally I think you'd have to be insane if you lived in Venezuela or Lebanon or wherever and didn't offshore your money, so if I found someone with legitimate wealth who supposedly kept all their money in countries like that, I'd be suspicious as all hell. Maybe I'm just burned by the financially-incorruptible freely elected president of Tunisia, Kais Saied, turning into a power hungry dictator, even if he does appear to be 100% genuinely not driven by any personal material gain. I'd rather a real human being run my country rather than RoboCop (his nickname). But at least in Tunisia, 100% of people upper-middle-class or above, do a lot of offshoring of money, because otherwise you're trapped and there's almost no legitimate way of expatriating money, so good luck even like, going and visiting your family in Canada if your money is all in Tunisia.

Sekenr posted:

https://news.zerkalo.io/economics/23619.html

Looks like Luka finally caved in. Imo this is the end, I am a Belarusian but cannot make any prediction whatsoever of how everyone will react

Luka has been saying this basically the whole time, I guess to justify to Russia why he's not going to contribute forces to invade -- he needs to protect Belarus from predatory Poles and Ukrainians. Maybe it's different this time, but it's a common "cry wolf" statement from him.

Saladman fucked around with this message at 11:15 on Oct 10, 2022

Lid
Feb 18, 2005

And the mercy seat is awaiting,
And I think my head is burning,
And in a way I'm yearning,
To be done with all this measuring of proof.
An eye for an eye
And a tooth for a tooth,
And anyway I told the truth,
And I'm not afraid to die.

PerilPastry posted:

Yeah, I mean seriously? If you're going to make disinfo at least try to make it internally consistent!

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1579260236665585666?s=20&t=bM28D-xVoVA4y8awOGfPUQ

Ukraine deploying the forces of Namor to take the jewel of the east, Belarus.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

PederP posted:

Our health sector would collapse without Swedish health workers commuting daily to their jobs in Denmark.

From what I hear the Danish alcohol retail sector would struggle without Swedish alcoholics too.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
Germany's consulates building was among those hit. Good news though, the consulate is in 22nd floor out of 27, shouldn't affect the consulate's work!

https://mobile.twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1579391516988309505

beer_war
Mar 10, 2005

Nenonen posted:

Germany's consulates building was among those hit. Good news though, the consulate is in 22nd floor out of 27, shouldn't affect the consulate's work!

https://mobile.twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1579391516988309505

Important to note that the consulate itself is in a separate building. 101 Tower just houses the visa office. Also the visa office was unused since the start of the war according to Reuters.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-ria-state-agency-reports-fuel-tank-fire-kerch-bridge-crimea-2022-10-08/

beer_war fucked around with this message at 12:18 on Oct 10, 2022

Somaen
Nov 19, 2007

by vyelkin

CSM posted:

Might want to include sources for this?

This was charter97 sourcing Vitalyi Kim's telegram channel

https://charter97.org/ru/news/2022/10/10/519294/

I can't find much besides that, so better to wait for further reports

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

PederP posted:

The power to the Danish island of Bornholm (right next to the NS pipeline breaches) was cut this morning until emergency generators were able to restore it. The main power source is a cable from the Swedish mainland. It is still not determined if the cable was intentionally damaged or if a ship's anchor accidentally severed it (which has happened occasionally in the past).

In addition to the (impossible to confirm, but quite obvious) navigational jamming of civilian cargo ships in the Danish great belt recently by a Russian warship, the Russian ships camping just outside of Danish territorial waters - I'd say the risk of a Russian act of sabotage against civilian infrastructure of NATO country being exposed and thus, demanding a response of some kind, has gone up. And this is in addition to the recent train infrastructure shenanigans in northern Germany.

If it turns out the power to Bornholm was intentionally cut, I'd say that is an act of war. I don't think NATO will go to war with Russia over power cable sabotage. But neither can such sabotage go unanswered.

https://nyheder.tv2.dk/lokalt/2022-10-10-bornholm-ramt-af-omfattende-stroemsvigt-efter-fejl-paa-soekabel
https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/seneste/geus-har-registreret-rystelser-i-kattegat-ved-laesoe
https://www.soefart.dk/article/view/872537/lods_mistede_gpssignal_taet_pa_russisk_korveti_storebaelt
https://www.tv2nord.dk/tv2dk/russiske-krigsskibe-kan-have-leget-kispus-med-danske-lodser

Of course it’s an act of war and could trigger Article 5, but won’t. So was the attack on the Nords in the Baltic.

I will say that Putin is playing a very dangerous game though, and he thinks he can get away with it because his nuclear blackmail actually works very well at letting him get away with this kind of poo poo with virtual impunity. Mostly he’s right.

Electric Wrigglies
Feb 6, 2015

ZombieLenin posted:

Of course it’s an act of war and could trigger Article 5, but won’t. So was the attack on the Nords in the Baltic.

I will say that Putin is playing a very dangerous game though, and he thinks he can get away with it because his nuclear blackmail actually works very well at letting him get away with this kind of poo poo with virtual impunity. Mostly he’s right.

It is also elementary for state level actors to do those things as a casus belli or to provoke others into aggressive acts between parties (or to be just a coincidence as noted by someone else). No need to froth at the mouth declaring that this means war. After all, western allies have already taken $300 billion off Russia, this is not anything remotely close to the same cost or impact.

Zedsdeadbaby
Jun 14, 2008

You have been called out, in the ways of old.

Nenonen posted:

How's so? Or is this just a matter of opinion?

It's notoriously difficult to get a timely number of casualties from situations like these, for example there was an accidental explosion at a petrol station in the Republic of Ireland a couple of days ago and the number of injured & death was being revised several times throughout the day. It took until this morning I believe, for the total count to be finally confirmed.
Initial counts of casualties tend to be inaccurate and subject to revisions as emergency workers sort the situation out. It's almost certain more than 5 people died in the terror attacks by the Russians.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

Lid posted:

It's a London Blitz or Tokyo Firebombing style attack. The point isn't military It's morale.

Yeah, fascists always seem to think this kind of terrorism will accomplish something and it always backfires. It just makes the victims more determined to fight back and it also wastes munitions against nonmilitary targets.

Imagine if every Russian strike against civilians had hit a military target instead.

Gort
Aug 18, 2003

Good day what ho cup of tea
You do wonder if these strikes cost Russia more than Ukraine. Like dinging a footbridge with a ballistic missile doesn't seem like the greatest return on investment.

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Gort posted:

You do wonder if these strikes cost Russia more than Ukraine. Like dinging a footbridge with a ballistic missile doesn't seem like the greatest return on investment.

Undoubtedly. Unless they start hitting targets that drastically undermine Ukraine’s C3 or ability to move materiel to the front they’re not doing anything of strategic significance.

Even if you assume terror bombing is effective (it’s not) they started the war with an estimated 3,000 standoff weapons, you couldn’t level a suburb with that let alone a city. Mearsheimer claiming they would reduce Ukraine to rubble was hopeless optimism on his part.

PederP
Nov 20, 2009

Electric Wrigglies posted:

It is also elementary for state level actors to do those things as a casus belli or to provoke others into aggressive acts between parties (or to be just a coincidence as noted by someone else). No need to froth at the mouth declaring that this means war. After all, western allies have already taken $300 billion off Russia, this is not anything remotely close to the same cost or impact.

Yes, some of these incidents may be (and I hope they are) coincidences, but the jamming one is obviously a targeted act of sabotage/harassment. I don't think it can be compared to western sanctions. "We will not trade with you" is absolutely not the same as damaging infrastructure. One is the refusal to engage in economic transactions (and note that the sanctions wisely do not include medicine, food and humanitarian supplies) - the other is engaging in hostile acts of destruction. Cost or impact is not the only factor.

Now I don't think anyone will go to war over cut power cables or trains being unable to run - nor will they over jammed navigation equipment. But if this continues the damage piles up and also the risk of a more serious incident goes up. What if navigational jamming results in ships colliding and environmental disaster? What if cut power leads directly to loss of human life? It's not just a dangerous game of brinkmanship - it's an escalation and a risky one at that. Even during the cold war such activities were only done by proxy.

It's hard to discuss this without getting clancychatty - but the ramping up of Russian harassment and (perhaps) sabotage against NATO countries is a significant, and dangerous, development. It is not just tit-for-tat and comparable to economic sanctions. It's yet another a violation of the Pax Europaea, where sanctions and stern letters are the upper limit to acceptable use of force. I hope Putin does not think this activity will reduce European support of Ukraine and opposition to Russia. Because I think it is more likely to cause further escalation and spillover.

Chalks
Sep 30, 2009

Ukrainian intelligence says that these strikes have been planned for some time before the Crimean bridge was hit. The fact that they knew about this in advance may explain why the attacks seem to have been so ineffective

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1579427399040917504

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

Chalks posted:

Ukrainian intelligence says that these strikes have been planned for some time before the Crimean bridge was hit. The fact that they knew about this in advance may explain why the attacks seem to have been so ineffective

What an absurd waste of high-tech weaponry to accomplish so little.

Charlotte Hornets
Dec 30, 2011

by Fritz the Horse
Allegedly, shooting down a cruise missile with Igla MANPADS

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1579434891225464834?cxt=HHwWhIDQ1crqo-srAAAA

Saladman
Jan 12, 2010
I mean I'm sure those strikes had been planned in some sense, meaning that Russia probably has a list of places where it would some day like to send missiles so I'm not sure what "planned for some time" means in practice. I'm also skeptical that someone high-level in the Russian military is giving Ukraine a list of the targets and when they will be fired upon.

Also most of the missiles seem to have hit something, right? It's not like Ukrainians moved an airbase out of the way of central Kyiv and replaced it with a park and a duck pond in the past ten days, or relocated their central military HQ with a pedestrian bridge. The RUF targets also seem to have been largely or entirely stationary objects, which means what could the Ukrainians even do about it if they knew Russia would send missiles there in a particular window of time? Presumably their anti-missile defenses around Kyiv are working 24/7, and aren't just active whenever. Like I don't get what advanced warning would even do. "Hey guys make sure to actually look at your radar today instead of sitting around playing cards"? Like no kidding everyone's going to be on high alert (a) during a war and (b) right after a very high profile hit on the Russian military.

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Chalks posted:

Ukrainian intelligence says that these strikes have been planned for some time before the Crimean bridge was hit. The fact that they knew about this in advance may explain why the attacks seem to have been so ineffective

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1579427399040917504

Might explain some pro Russian posts saying the new general in charge of the invasion has been given the go ahead to launch everything short of nukes at Ukraine. They might be finding out the expensive way that Ukraine has better air defences that mud huts in Syria.

Atreiden
May 4, 2008

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1579402941311877121
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germanys-cybersecurity-chief-faces-dismissal-reports-2022-10-09/

https://twitter.com/andreas_krieg/status/1579422127408570368
https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/innenpolitik/bsi-schoenbohm-101.html
Bit of an odd part from the German article, might be because I read it machine translated to English otherwise that seems extremely stupid:

quote:

The head of the Federal Office for Information Security, Schönbohm, has been criticized for his affiliation with an association that is said to have contacts with the Russian secret service. Now he is about to lose his job.Federal Minister of the Interior Nancy Faeser intends to dismiss the President of the Federal Office for Information Security (BSI), Arne Schönbohm, shortl...

...Because of the provisions of civil service law, Faeser cannot simply fire Schönbohm - she has to find a new position for the head of the agency. At the same time, a successor will be sought as soon as possible, it said.

Chalks
Sep 30, 2009

Latest casualty figures remain incredibly low

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1579436182924320768

Slashrat
Jun 6, 2011

YOSPOS

If true, the level of coordination with Ukrainian Air Defense must be absolutely crazy for 'couple of guys in a field with MANPADS' to be an effective counter to cruise missiles.

GaussianCopula
Jun 5, 2011
Jews fleeing the Holocaust are not in any way comparable to North Africans, who don't flee genocide but want to enjoy the social welfare systems of Northern Europe.

Atreiden posted:

Bit of an odd part from the German article, might be because I read it machine translated to English otherwise that seems extremely stupid:

He did nothing illegal and so he can't be fired for cause according to German public servant law.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

quote:

Kyrgyzstan cancels Russian-led military drill on its land
The Central Asian nation of Kyrgyzstan on Sunday unilaterally cancelled joint military drills between the six nations comprising the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), less than a day before they were due to start on its territory.

The Kyrgyz defense ministry did not specify the reason for cancelling the “Indestructible Brotherhood-2022” command and staff exercises, which were set to be held in the country’s windswept eastern highlands Monday to Friday.

According to earlier reports, the exercises were set to involve army personnel from CSTO members Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and focus on securing ceasefires. Observers from five further states, including Serbia, Syria and Uzbekistan, had also been invited.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-asia-kazakhstan-central-tajikistan-8bd4550ca3831c25990165685a92cac6

:thunk: yes I wonder why they wouldn't want to have those particular countries in the same place on their land


Wow. Hard to say 100% but that does look like a smallish missile and not a jet that gets then blown up. Holy poo poo.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

drat, what a shot. Kalibr is basically a Tomahawk, Igła should be enough to catch it, but you have to be in the right place.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

Atreiden posted:

Bit of an odd part from the German article, might be because I read it machine translated to English otherwise that seems extremely stupid:

Not really. It's a civil servant, not a political appointee.

You really don't want politicians to have the ability to fire civil servants at will. That leads to chaos, or worse.

The connection to the FSB is pretty tenuous, but the Cyber-Clown hasn't had a good reputation among German IT people, and neither does his shady "Cyber-Sicherheitsrat", the companys in it, or the BSI by association. The allegations aren't new either.

I strongly suspect the Ministry of the Interior is using the recent media attention to finally get rid of him.

nimby
Nov 4, 2009

The pinnacle of cloud computing.



Kikas posted:

drat, what a shot. Kalibr is basically a Tomahawk, Igła should be enough to catch it, but you have to be in the right place.

I know Ukraine has a way to coordinate artillery through some sort of app networking, do they have the same for air defence?

"Ivan Petro near Izyum, we're tracking a cruise missile that will pass within 100 meters of your position in 5 minutes, get ready."

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Chalks posted:

An empty children's playground isn't going to have a morale impact - like this is such a perfect photo op for Ukraine I'd suspect a false flag if it wasn't so impossible. Also the strike on the completely empty pedestrian bridge is comical since it failed to actually damage it.

I think implying that this is a well thought out strategy to try to break Ukraine's morale is giving it too much credit. Waiting to see how extensive the strike against the power infrastructure has been, but wasting missiles against empty civilian targets like this is ridiculous.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1579375040201887745

This is what boggles my mind, its not like they dont know where the SBU headquarters is, sure that has already probably been evacated, but surely more meaning than this.

These were the types of strikes western intel seemed to honestly be expecting before the war, I think they missed how much Russians see Kyiv and a Russian city which they would never destroy, not that that saved Mariupol.

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


Chalks posted:

An empty children's playground isn't going to have a morale impact - like this is such a perfect photo op for Ukraine I'd suspect a false flag if it wasn't so impossible. Also the strike on the completely empty pedestrian bridge is comical since it failed to actually damage it.

I think implying that this is a well thought out strategy to try to break Ukraine's morale is giving it too much credit. Waiting to see how extensive the strike against the power infrastructure has been, but wasting missiles against empty civilian targets like this is ridiculous.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1579375040201887745

In Mexico they will often actually change cities names to have honorifics and titles after wars and patriotic events like they would with people.

Name this bridge a hero of Ukraine.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat
Comedy option: they are getting the coordinates for rocket strikes from those old Soviet maps that had all the features deliberately distorted to frustrate potential hostile military actions. So they are aiming for crucial infrastructure and hitting water fountains in parks.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

Chalks posted:

An empty children's playground isn't going to have a morale impact - like this is such a perfect photo op for Ukraine I'd suspect a false flag if it wasn't so impossible. Also the strike on the completely empty pedestrian bridge is comical since it failed to actually damage it.

I think implying that this is a well thought out strategy to try to break Ukraine's morale is giving it too much credit. Waiting to see how extensive the strike against the power infrastructure has been, but wasting missiles against empty civilian targets like this is ridiculous.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1579375040201887745

I think he meant these strikes are

1) intended to boost Russian morale

2) an extremely poor strategy for breaking Ukrainian morale.

Fascists keep trying this tactic and it never works. I have to wonder if something in the totalitarian mindset just can't comprehend that just because you can terrorize your own population into submission, it doesnt work on foreign populations, because people with their own military react differently to this kind of thing

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

steinrokkan posted:

Comedy option: they are getting the coordinates for rocket strikes from those old Soviet maps that had all the features deliberately distorted to frustrate potential hostile military actions. So they are aiming for crucial infrastructure and hitting water fountains in parks.

Well, they did hit near the meeting place of the 1917 Parliament and the "Presidential Administration Building" from "Servant of the People"

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
That bridge gets pretty packed when it's not being bombed, I guess that's one place that wouldn't have many people yet during morning rush hour.



Starts right where the arc intersects with the wall in the background


This is also right next to the national philharmonic, cultural center, a fountain and some other monuments.


Hieronymous Alloy posted:

I think he meant these strikes are

1) intended to boost Russian morale

2) an extremely poor strategy for breaking Ukrainian morale.

Fascists keep trying this tactic and it never works. I have to wonder if something in the totalitarian mindset just can't comprehend that just because you can terrorize your own population into submission, it doesnt work on foreign populations, because people with their own military react differently to this kind of thing

Seeing as how the hardliners were freaking the gently caress out over the stupid bridge, he clearly had to do something drastic to make it look like he's taking it seriously in order to appease them

mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 13:56 on Oct 10, 2022

Dwesa
Jul 19, 2016

Maybe I'll go where I can see stars

FishBulbia posted:

This is what boggles my mind, its not like they dont know where the SBU headquarters is, sure that has already probably been evacated, but surely more meaning than this.

These were the types of strikes western intel seemed to honestly be expecting before the war, I think they missed how much Russians see Kyiv and a Russian city which they would never destroy, not that that saved Mariupol.
There is a bunch of monuments nearby (including that arch visible behind that originally celebrated Russian-Ukrainian "friendship" and was renamed/partially dismantled in 2022) and EU mission. It could be they tried to hit something more 'symbolic' and while that missile has claimed accuracy of 6-10 meters, just like with anything else in RU military, who knows whether their claims are in any way related to reality, after all it missed that bridge. Anyway, there are no military objects nearby that are visible on the map, so they were definitely targeting some civilian object.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat
They missiled the Babi Yar monument, they have no compulsions about what targets are off limits, they just loving suuuck

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

In Mexico they will often actually change cities names to have honorifics and titles after wars and patriotic events like they would with people.

Name this bridge a hero of Ukraine.

This is the Klitschko bridge. The current mayor of Kiev (also professional boxer, two times heavyweight champ turned politician), a very active participant of the current conflict.
It's already done in a way :v:

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

steinrokkan posted:

They missiled the Babi Yar monument, they have no compulsions about what targets are off limits, they just loving suuuck

the babi yar monument that ultranationalists hated because it blamed collaborators, btw.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
If we say other countries do terrorism and war crimes enough, we're allowed to do terrorism and war crimes ourselves. This line of thinking has been ever-present in Russian propaganda throughout the last 15 years and is the main justification of the war. Kadyrov today summed it up yet again.

quote:

Zelenskyi is complaining about us shelling Kyiv and other cities.
And what did you, Zelenskyi, you sucker, think? You are allowed to do this and others are not?
So for eight years, you were bombing civilians, destroying the infrastructure of LNR cities, shelling a nuclear power plant, blowing up bridges, bombing critical infrastructure, and all this was allowed. But as soon as the bombs start flying your way, suddenly It's a big no-no for everyone?

We warned you, Zelenskyi, that Russia hasn't even started the real war yet, so stop complaining like a cheapskate and run away before the bombs get you. Run, Zelensky, run without looking back towards the West.

Now I am one hundred per cent satisfied with the SMO.

Zedsdeadbaby
Jun 14, 2008

You have been called out, in the ways of old.

quote:

Russia hasn't even started the real war yet

There's that old chestnut again.

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BadOptics
Sep 11, 2012

gay picnic defence posted:

Ukraine has better air defences that mud huts in Syria.

Please keep the casual racism to a minimum please and thanks.

Edit: "Ukraine has better air defenses than they experienced in Syria." Is a good example with the same amount of words - pretty easy imo

BadOptics fucked around with this message at 14:19 on Oct 10, 2022

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