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gonna be a runoff. fun for the whole month!
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Oct 2, 2022 23:49
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That was far closer than expected. Maybe not surprising I guess.
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Oct 3, 2022 09:02
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Yeah, Lula's pretty much poised to win, but that's looking like they're going to have Bolsonaro's far right just constantly getting in the way of everything.
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Oct 3, 2022 13:05
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100YrsofAttitude posted:That was far closer than expected. Maybe not surprising I guess. you're telling me the polls got it right for the center left candidate but underestimated the right authoritarian? I'm shocked by this
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Oct 3, 2022 14:38
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how's the legislature looking? it's seemed like the so-called "pink tide" is back (sorta) but this time without legislative majorities and i'm wondering if that's what's looking likely here
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Oct 3, 2022 15:13
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We got any Paraguayan posters ITT? I got family in country I can chat up but I’d appreciate goon input into what’s going down, down there.
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Oct 3, 2022 16:32
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Badger of Basra posted:you're telling me the polls got it right for the center left candidate but underestimated the right authoritarian? I'm shocked by this "How did the polls miss this": Brazil Edition
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Oct 3, 2022 19:14
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Doctor Teeth posted:how's the legislature looking? it's seemed like the so-called "pink tide" is back (sorta) but this time without legislative majorities and i'm wondering if that's what's looking likely here The right gained seats but Lula never really had a majority during his first terms either, he just bribed the centrão (Bolsonaro has had to do the same thing iirc)
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Oct 3, 2022 19:31
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fnox posted:Yeah, Lula's pretty much poised to win, but that's looking like they're going to have Bolsonaro's far right just constantly getting in the way of everything.
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Oct 3, 2022 23:30
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From reading a couple of articles I got the impression that the minor candidates from the first round are centrist/leftist and their voters are unlikely to switch to Bolsonaro in the runoff - that's my hope anyway. Also on the 'why were the polls wrong', I wonder if news about Lula's big lead meant that people were more comfortable voting for other candidates as there wasn't much of a risk of Lula (ultimately) losing.
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Oct 4, 2022 12:51
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The polls weren’t really that wrong for Lula, they all underestimated Bolsonaro. So I don’t think that was the issue
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Oct 4, 2022 14:23
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TheWeedNumber posted:We got any Paraguayan posters ITT? I got family in country I can chat up but I’d appreciate goon input into what’s going down, down there. best i can offer is an uruguayan
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Oct 4, 2022 16:44
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/09/brazil-jair-bolsonaro-cannibalism-boastquote:“There was this time I was in Surucuru … and an Indian had died and they were cooking him. They cook Indians. It’s their culture,” Bolsonaro claims to the correspondent’s apparent befuddlement.
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Oct 9, 2022 20:01
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yeah i'm as surprised as you are that he's a cultural relativist. good on him
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Oct 9, 2022 21:15
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fnox posted:It just loving sucks to talk about Latin America in this forum. I mean, in all fairness, #SOSCuba was explicitly an attempt to hijack a day-long protest over a lack of COVID care into a greater anti-communist movement, which completely failed when native cubans caught on to it. I don't think it's unfair to be skeptical of tweets using the tag, particularly when interpreting internet activity after a hurricane. Perhaps they could have been less glib about it.
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Oct 10, 2022 20:21
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The thing I take issue with is people either completely ignoring the problems that exist in Cuba, or trying to turn them into some grand narrative about the evil, perfidious socialists. Yes, Cuba has problems and the government is the source of at least a few of them. No, it's not likely that an American-backed campaign to oust the government would help the situation on the whole. And it's equally unlikely, in my view, that complaints about a specific extant problem at a given, coming from the Cuban people, reflect a widespread desire to simply turf the entire government.
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Oct 11, 2022 16:04
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My issue with the attempts to turn Cuban protests into coups is the hypocrisy of it and the fact we have examples of what a post-socialist Cuba would look like. Look at Haiti, they've had mass protests since 2018, with government contracted gangs using US weapons to suppress the protests. It had gotten so bad the president behind that was assassinated and despite a cabinet reshuffle of different US-friendly leaders, the situation hasn't improved. Never hear those SOSCuba people having any concern for Haiti. Haiti was picking up steam since the start of 2021 and culminated in a presidential assassination at the same time as a single small protest in Cuba about COVID became amplified by the west into a mass movement to "free Cuba". And there's never an explanation as to why a post socialist Cuba would be some paradise if aligned with the US, instead of another Haiti under real authoritarian rule. Marenghi fucked around with this message at 16:39 on Oct 11, 2022 |
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Oct 11, 2022 16:34
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PT6A posted:The thing I take issue with is people either completely ignoring the problems that exist in Cuba, or trying to turn them into some grand narrative about the evil, perfidious socialists. Yes, Cuba has problems and the government is the source of at least a few of them. No, it's not likely that an American-backed campaign to oust the government would help the situation on the whole. And it's equally unlikely, in my view, that complaints about a specific extant problem at a given, coming from the Cuban people, reflect a widespread desire to simply turf the entire government. This is what makes it intolerable. Obviously people are going to oversimplify the statement and simply go like "how can you not talk about America when it has meddled with Latin America for its entire history", and I don't think they realize how diminutive that poo poo ends up being. Because the issue is not American intervention, we loving know about it, it's ever present, the issue is the complete inability to speak of anything in local terms or advance any topic without having to correlate it with what these posters know, which is American politics. I'd like to have a space to discuss Latin American politics, as the entire rest of the forum can be used to talk politics from a US centric point of view. Or even just, things that happen in Latin America without instantly having someone run off with the topic in an attempt to debunk its sources leading to worthless white noise. Hurricane Julia just went through Central and South America, leading to pretty severe floods and landslides in coastal populations such as Tejerias, Venezuela, where there's dozens dead, even more missing. The first debate after the first round of the Brazilian presidential elections are coming up this Sunday. Literally yesterday the UN secretary general proposed an armed intervention in Haiti. There's things to talk about.
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Oct 11, 2022 16:39
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Why does reporting focus on Haitian "gangs"? In other areas of the world I see cartels, armed groups, rebels, revolutionaries etc etc but rarely do I see that word used outside of Haiti
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Oct 11, 2022 17:22
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i say swears online posted:Why does reporting focus on Haitian "gangs"? In other areas of the world I see cartels, armed groups, rebels, revolutionaries etc etc but rarely do I see that word used outside of Haiti I think it’s semantics but it’s not cartels as generally cartels have a particular illicit financial interest, and usually rebels or revolutionaries have political ambitions. The situation in Haiti seems to be revolving around groups of criminals that control specific areas rather than say, a unified cause to seize control of the whole country. I guess gangs are a form of self governance for the people in the slums, just not one that garners any serious international support.
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Oct 11, 2022 18:09
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I've heard things in the news about Mexican gangs, but I guess often the word "cartel" takes precedence. Near as I can tell with Haiti, they might be calling them "gangs" just because they're not like united or directed at any particular cause. They're just a mess as part of an even larger mess. I'm still not sure how much of a government in general Haiti has to even rebel against right now. It would be nice if America could just normalize its relationship with Cuba, and that would probably help Cuba improve going forward, but I don't know if that's ever going to happen.
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Oct 11, 2022 18:20
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i think the last UN haitian mission ended up killing well over ten thousand people so hopefully it doesn't come to that
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Oct 11, 2022 18:38
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fnox posted:There's things to talk about. There's things in Latin America to talk about, but unless it relates to "anti-imperialism" and the left, it loses the attention of many people who come in only to look at issues transposed onto the American culture wars. For example, there was hyperfocused attention around the presidential elections of Chile and Colombia where left-wing candidates won for the first time in a while. After the election, there's very little follow up or attention given to these places again: many people tuned in simply not because they care about Chile or Colombia, they just wanted to rehash about socialism, imperialism, CIA, etc. We see the same/will see the same with the elections in Brazil. It's incredibly toxic.
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Oct 11, 2022 23:14
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luckily nobody cares about uruguay
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Oct 11, 2022 23:26
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Nothing ever happens in Uruguay. I've been in Rivera last year and time literally was standing still.
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Oct 12, 2022 02:07
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Nothing happens in the border with Brazil besides smuggling, human trafficking of mostly Cuban and African citizens and some tiny Hezbollah activity.
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Oct 12, 2022 02:57
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on the note of chile, i read an interesting piece in Le Monde Diplomatique (https://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/2022/10/LAMBERT/65154) which posited that the specific ideological heritage of the "plurinational" project may have been a major factor in the new constitution failing to pass. basically, the idea seems to be that the notion of a plurinational state is seen in some quarters - including certain indigenous quarters - as a retreat by the state from responsibility to make gaurantees over the devolved subjects, and that there have been two worries which were seized upon by the anti-referendum crowd: firstly, that plurinationality could be implemented as a kind of de-facto reservation system, and secondly that it would represent a categoical abolition of unitary national politics over certain political issues. i am not in chile and have never been, so i am not able to critically evaluate this, but the way it's presented in the article seems plausible to me. could anyone more attuned to issues of the national question in latin america comment?
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Oct 12, 2022 10:51
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i say swears online posted:i think the last UN haitian mission ended up killing well over ten thousand people so hopefully it doesn't come to that Fun fact: Brazil led the UN mission and so the brazilian army is directly responsible for these murders and atrocities. The commander of the mission, general Augusto Heleno, currently retired, is now of the most avid supporters of Jair Bolsonaro
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Oct 12, 2022 11:09
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There's big opposition to UN intervention by the public in Haiti. They are despised there. For the many killings of public protestors by UN "peacekeeping" forces. They have this statue dedicated to their victory over Cholera that was introduced by the UN during the 2010 earthquake recovery. The UN tried to cover it up. And that's before you get into the sexual assault scandals with them. Basically they have no credibility as aid workers or peace keepers in Haiti.
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Oct 12, 2022 15:06
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From the history of 'UN Peacekeepers' in Haiti, the entirely rational response from Haitans is to open fire and take no prisoners.
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Oct 12, 2022 15:24
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The only thing anyone should want for Haiti is for the US backed puppet government to be overthrown and the Western NGOs to be driven out.
Nucleic Acids fucked around with this message at 16:24 on Oct 13, 2022 |
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Oct 13, 2022 15:55
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https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-canada-deliver-armored-vehicles-haitian-police-2022-10-15/ US and Canada are delivering armored vehicles into Haiti.
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Oct 17, 2022 13:18
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Marenghi posted:https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-canada-deliver-armored-vehicles-haitian-police-2022-10-15/ Prelude to an
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Oct 17, 2022 15:27
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Nucleic Acids posted:Prelude to an It's a prelude to those armored vehicles entering the island's vital strongman economy, that way the west's next selected strongman as well as his rivals have sufficient access to armored vehicles to keep the status quo conflict simmering for another few decades.
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Oct 17, 2022 20:19
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/17/un-security-council-haiti-session quick, time to get the Coalition of the Willing back together, because we're invading a country without the UN's authority or mission quote:Presenting a resolution at a special session of the UN security council on Monday, the US envoy to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield called for “a limited carefully-scoped non-UN mission led by a partner country with the deep, necessary experience”.
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Oct 17, 2022 23:35
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Does "Latin America" properly refer to Haiti?
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Oct 17, 2022 23:46
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Fuschia tude posted:Does "Latin America" properly refer to Haiti? yes
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Oct 17, 2022 23:47
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I can't see how that is even a question.
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Oct 18, 2022 00:00
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Fuschia tude posted:Does "Latin America" properly refer to Haiti? Why wouldn’t it?
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Oct 19, 2022 15:40
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i say swears online posted:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/17/un-security-council-haiti-session Kinda weird that Mexico's jointly proposing it with the US. Just earlier this year, the president of Mexico was making a big show of denouncing the US over the Summit of the Americas. Also apparently the Bahamas are offering to send troops. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/bahamas-would-send-troops-haiti-if-asked-minister-says-2022-10-18/ I don't doubt that Haitians are suffering over the current state of things, but also propping up the current Haitian government by force is going to be a mess of its own since what little government they do have isn't exactly legitimate.
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Oct 19, 2022 16:25
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