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Oke doke Leafs leafs leafs...more lets look at my 4th favorite team to write about. As usual stats are 5v5 from Nat Stat and using their xG model unless I start rambling about something else. Over the last 3 seasons the Leafs rank 7th in CF (53%), 8th in Fenwick/Shots for(52%), 10th in actual goal split (53.43%), and 5th in xG at 53.76%. That their xG matches their actual split pretty well is really nice and tells us over the time span the Leafs are performing nearly to expectation. Rummaging around a bit we find the Leafs are 4th in xGF/60 of 2.67 and actual results also put them in 4th with 2.95 GF/60. Where things slip a little is on the prevention side. Toronto clocks in 19th best with a 2.55 GA/60 actual and 2.3 xGA/60 which places them 8th best. Toronto has the 2nd best scoring chance split with 54.4% share. Actual results move them from 2nd to 10th with 53.5% of the goals. This is on the back of middling shooting % (13.44 vs Minny's leading 15.9 or Washington's 2nd best 15%) and 24th best goaltending (.857 vs the best 5 teams being roughly .88 to .885). This same dynamic plays out for the every split middling shooting % mediocre to bad goaltending. Sorting by full shooting % the Leafs rank 5th overall clocking a 9.15% vs 10% from Minny which ranks tops. The .913 ranks in as 25 best. None of that really did tell us much we didn't know...did it? Goaltending has been an issue going back years. Looking at basic player splits - Matthews, Marner, and Rielly all perform to expectation. Tavares is immediately picked as a weak link providing 49% goals for vs his 54% xG. Nylander also performs 5% lower with outcomes vs expected. In order of least over performance to most of actual goal split vs expected - Mikheyev, A Johnsson, Blackwell, Gautheier, Matthews, Spezza, Bogosian, Kerfoot, Engvall, Rielly, Hyman, Thornton, Brodie, Timashov, and Kase being peak of 55% actual goals for vs 48% expected. Under-performers in order of least to most - Kampf, Bunting, Ceci, Clifford, Kapanen, Marner, Barrie, Muzzin, Holl, Dermott, Sandin, Vesey, Liljegren, Lyubushkin, Tavares, Simmonds, Nylander, Marincin, Moore, Galchenyuk, Ritchie, Petan, and Robertson. I've only included players with 125 minutes of ice time to weed out a lot of the randoms. Setting the bar at 275 minutes leaves 13 on the + side and 21 on the -. This definitely gestures very much at an underlying systems issue. Having 2/3rds of your roster under perform expected outcomes puts a big parachute on your team. Playoffs playoffs playoffs - pretty wild. 54% expected and 47.5% actual. In very Leafs fashion their goaltending has held up. They rank 10th of 25 with a .929 at 5v5. Pens, Caps, and Oilers prop up the table with .905s and Vancouver/CBJ lead with .950. Where Toronto falls off the cliff is shooting % with a league worst 25 out of 25 5.63% conversion rate on all shots. Looking at all the chance splits that has been the undoing. The Leafs actually get saves in the playoffs, but refuse to be able to score. Where everything falls down in the playoffs is with well actually....everyone, but especially the stars. Matthews/Marner go from 3 points per 60 in the regular season to 1.8 and 1.6. Nylander 2.24 down to 1.83. Tavares falls from 2 p/60 to .99 p/60 in the playoffs. Basically the same story plays out across the entire roster...when the Leafs get to the playoffs no one can score. Which confirms what I think we've all been saying/of the opinion - Sheldon Keefe should have been fired like twice already. It is incredibly impressive for an organization to allow Keefe to continue coach 2 of the biggest players to sub-standard outcomes and continually have them under perform in the playoffs. If you made it this far...thanks for reading  hopefully it provided some deeper understanding into 'Loleafs'.
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Oct 20, 2022 04:11
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This doesn't sound good at all, especially coming from another player and not management/coaching where you'd have to at least be wary of LTIR/Robidas Island games. https://twitter.com/jonassiegel/status/1582788735820652544?s=20&t=i2xHXv1ZBN1jjcsiLIfplg
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Oct 20, 2022 15:06
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this'd be his 3rd concussion in just 2022 so I guess I can see a cause for legitimate concern there
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Oct 20, 2022 15:27
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DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:I would be really shocked if Torts gets canned. For one, a lot of the normal non-online-nerd fanbase is probably going to be okay with him. For two, he's pretty good at setting expectations, and he's been saying that he's really starting a culture rebuild, and that it will take a long time. And three, it's early, but they are undoubtedly playing harder than they have in years. In a vacuum I like Torts as the Flyers HC. Problem is they really needed to commit to a full teardown and rebuild. Since Torts tends to get otherwise mediocre teams to overperform, they'll either sneak into the playoffs and get knocked out in the first round, or they'll win just enough to completely ruin their lottery odds.
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Oct 20, 2022 15:30
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Based on everything we'd heard and seen over the summer I'd got pretty convinced the Flyers were getting Vancouver Torts and he'd be gone by Christmas. But their play so far suggests they've got Normal Torts and if so they'll be on the fringes of the playoff race and probably finish 4th-6th in the Metro. Getting overachievement from a not very talented team is what he does best, if he doesn't totally lose the room and quit giving a poo poo first. Too early by far to be confident he's not going to turn out to be Vancouver Torts after all, though. But it does help that the Flyers have no stars. Eric the Mauve fucked around with this message at 15:44 on Oct 20, 2022 |
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Oct 20, 2022 15:40
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Appreciate the research! The Leafs systems being hard to execute and easy to defend correlates pretty well to “the majority of players undershoot expectation and the team gets utterly shut down in every playoff series” pseudodragon posted:This doesn't sound good at all, especially coming from another player and not management/coaching where you'd have to at least be wary of LTIR/Robidas Island games. So the interesting thing about this quote is it came from Marner immediately after the game, then later everyone is like “Oh he was at a team function later that night and he seems totally fine” That said I have a hard time believing repeated head/neck issues on an older dman who’s already showing signs of struggle can be shrugged off, Muzzin should do some soul searching because it seems like he’s coming to the tail end of things one way or another.
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Oct 20, 2022 15:49
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Leafs reverse retros revealed, they're pretty boring but not embarrassingly ugly like the weird dark grey ones so definitely an improvement https://twitter.com/MapleLeafs/status/1583111044326690818?s=20&t=dPbKiB99OltQ8Lk2hTj_ZQ
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Oct 20, 2022 16:04
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 At least the canucks don't look like a sprite can this year. Powershift fucked around with this message at 16:13 on Oct 20, 2022 |
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Oct 20, 2022 16:10
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Pens introed their retros: https://twitter.com/penguins/status/1583111106935291904?s=20&t=BOk-0HKeOcTf1by4_s4agw I like the logo. Not sure I'm a fan of the yellow/gold on the shoulders - looks a little too close to a Bruins jersey
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Oct 20, 2022 16:11
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Caps might be my favorite one
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Oct 20, 2022 16:16
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Sens, Pens, Kings, and Sabres should probably switch to those jerseys full time immediately
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Oct 20, 2022 16:20
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shyduck posted:Caps might be my favorite one Yeah I'm all for the Screaming Eagle coming back. Was actually looking for a used one at some point, but I wear these things so seldom since COVID made going to games stupid. https://twitter.com/Capitals/status/1583111185440067584 The glittery "foil" accents are kind of funny though.
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Oct 20, 2022 16:20
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https://twitter.com/NHLFlyers/status/1583114638228881408?t=-i0SMs60WWHLeQhb67ja_A&s=19
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Oct 20, 2022 16:24
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shyduck posted:https://twitter.com/NHLFlyers/status/1583114638228881408?t=-i0SMs60WWHLeQhb67ja_A&s=19 WEAR THEM IN THE GAMES YOU COWARDS
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Oct 20, 2022 16:30
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DJExile posted:WEAR THEM IN THE GAMES YOU COWARDS At the speed the game is played today I think it might literally kill people
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Oct 20, 2022 16:31
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I like that the Panthers one is proving to be popular around the internet (the jersey it's based on is foul so this is an improvement, even if they kept the dreadful shoulder panels that they're hiding in all the promo material) I like more that I don't like it personally, which saves me money buying yet another goddamned jersey.
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Oct 20, 2022 16:31
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I know I am about as far from an NHLer as one can get, but the concept of wearing one uniform for warmups then changing to a new one for the game sounds pretty horrible. When I skate, I dress once and it ain't changing until I'm headed home because getting dressed up is an annoying process.
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Oct 20, 2022 16:33
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shyduck posted:https://twitter.com/NHLFlyers/status/1583114638228881408?t=-i0SMs60WWHLeQhb67ja_A&s=19 Flyers: "Do you know what will bring fans back, return of the cooperalls baby" Fans: "Literally anything else please"
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Oct 20, 2022 16:33
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hideous ones from the blues. similar to their defense
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Oct 20, 2022 16:35
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bobston bruins
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Oct 20, 2022 16:35
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not gonna lie if they sell those cooperall pants in regular cuts I would buy a pair in a heartbeat
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Oct 20, 2022 16:39
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xzzy posted:I know I am about as far from an NHLer as one can get, but the concept of wearing one uniform for warmups then changing to a new one for the game sounds pretty horrible. When I skate, I dress once and it ain't changing until I'm headed home because getting dressed up is an annoying process. Most of them undress and re-dress every period! Although if there was a whole staff whose job was to make sure my stuff was as fresh and comfortable as possible, I might have a different view on it.
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Oct 20, 2022 16:40
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https://twitter.com/NYIslanders/status/1583111318264872961 THE FISHERMAN HAS RETURNED OUR PROMISED TIME IS UPON US LET THE IMPLOSION BEGIN
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Oct 20, 2022 16:42
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Like said before, I like the black VGK reverse retro. I'm a bit iffy on the glow in the dark idea, but 
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Oct 20, 2022 16:42
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Those Sharks Golden Seals throwbacks rule.
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Oct 20, 2022 16:46
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Matt Zerella posted:Those Sharks Golden Seals throwbacks rule. Yeah this was a perfect idea Also Vegas' font is tremendous
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Oct 20, 2022 16:47
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I’m glad the Pens got rid of that powder blue third they wore for years, the 90s Penguin loving owns and evokes Mario and Jagr memories The Florida powder blue 3rd however, is awesome
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Oct 20, 2022 16:50
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https://twitter.com/TBLightning/status/1583118897158311936 oh my gently caress the numbers are jagged that is so good I can't believe it
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Oct 20, 2022 16:51
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Bring back the robo penguin you cowards!
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Oct 20, 2022 16:57
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DJExile posted:WEAR THEM IN THE GAMES YOU COWARDS They don't want to be confused for every coach on the ice. The Seattle ones are dumb that they even exist. The Northstar color Wild jerseys are fine I guess.
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Oct 20, 2022 16:59
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The Dirty Burger posted:I’m glad the Pens got rid of that powder blue third they wore for years, the 90s Penguin loving owns and evokes Mario and Jagr memories Give me the gray robopenguin and give it to me now.  (The Pens were wearing the same jerseys they're wearing now when they won their '91/'92 Cups though, they switched to Triangle Penguin in '93, switched back in... '02 I think but with the ugly pale pewter color, then finally wised up and switched back to the classic "Pittsburgh Gold" (i.e. yellow) in '17) Eric the Mauve fucked around with this message at 17:03 on Oct 20, 2022 |
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Oct 20, 2022 17:00
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Matt Zerella posted:Those Sharks Golden Seals throwbacks rule.
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Oct 20, 2022 17:01
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Loving the retro Seattle look. Really brings me back to their glory days.
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Oct 20, 2022 17:04
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DJExile posted:https://twitter.com/TBLightning/status/1583118897158311936 good lord that is hideous
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Oct 20, 2022 17:05
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rex rabidorum vires posted:Bring back the robo penguin you cowards! Triangle penguin is the best penguin. Except the reverse retro has no gray gradient and is strictly worse than the original. Meanwhile, the Canes' retro jersey is... a slightly different coloring of their most recent and shittiest jersey.
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Oct 20, 2022 17:08
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Eric the Mauve posted:Give me the gray robopenguin and give it to me now. Or just accept that the AHL team has a better jersey and swap logos with the Pens 
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Oct 20, 2022 17:09
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Kinda top heavy for a hockey player but it does look cool.
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Oct 20, 2022 17:12
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That's just a photo of Krzysztof Oliwa.
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Oct 20, 2022 17:27
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The Dirty Burger posted:Or just accept that the AHL team has a better jersey and swap logos with the Pens The Virgin Yinzer vs the Chad Wilkes-Barre Scrantonian
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Oct 20, 2022 17:27
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My complaint about the Sharks retro is that I wish they added the logo instead of font. But I guess that is more in tune with the original. Those colours are great, though. My favs? Coyotes, Isles, Kings, Wild, and Caps.
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Oct 20, 2022 17:28
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