Livestock Trading Thread: Baa or better

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Ask/Tell > Business, Finance, and Careers > Livestock Trading Thread: Baa or better

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Hadlock: Nov 9, 2004

Here's a random image from the internet, the point it illustrates is that ~~50% is used for power (which goes to both industry and residential), heating and direct use by households

The other 50% roughly is used by industry. If industry shuts down you pick up a lot of slack for power generation and heating. It's not ideal, because you're effectively lobotomizing your heavy industry but there's a lot of consumption you can cut before your citizens start freezing to death in their own homes like in Texas

https://cen.acs.org/energy/Natural-gas-shortages-loom-Germanys/100/i26

# ? Nov 2, 2022 18:18

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# ? May 21, 2024 16:48

pmchem: Jan 22, 2010

pmchem posted:

this thread is hilarious

https://twitter.com/JeffWeniger/status/1587586819620749314

here's the code to reproduce that graph if anyone cares

code:

# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import fredpy as fp

fp.api_key = 'getyourown'

fl = fp.series('flphci')
ne = fp.series('nephci')

win = ['01-01-1980','01-01-2200']
fl_win = fl.window(win)
ne_win = ne.window(win)

flne = fl_win.divide(ne_win)
flne = flne.ma(12)
flne = flne.pc(annualized=True)

fig = plt.figure()
ax = fig.add_subplot(1,1,1)
ax.plot(flne.data,'-', lw=2)
ax.grid()
ax.set_title('FL vs NE')

flne.recessions()

# ? Nov 2, 2022 19:27

pmchem: Jan 22, 2010

Hadlock posted:

SoFi CEO (ex Twitter COO) weighs in on charging for blue check marks, pretty insane but whatever

Also SoFi briefly popped on yet another consecutive earnings beat, still not profitable but in the last year moving from -$0.14 to -$0.09 EPS

sofi -10.7% today btw, within spitting distance of another all-time low

# ? Nov 2, 2022 21:07

Hadlock: Nov 9, 2004

well yeah it's poo poo market that's no surprise. not seeing a lot of winners breaking out right now. key word there "briefly"

looking like they are on target to break even... eventually, growth looking good still. if they hit $4.80 I am buying another 100 shares

# ? Nov 3, 2022 06:18

Trevorrrrrrrrrrrrr: Jul 4, 2008

SOFI below 5 seems like a great deal.

In other news I chickened out on an earnings put I had and took 80% gain yesterday and missed out on a 1000% return if I held, rip like 30k

....closer to 1500% and something like 50k now, jfc

Trevorrrrrrrrrrrrr fucked around with this message at 14:51 on Nov 3, 2022

# ? Nov 3, 2022 14:40

Sand Monster: Apr 13, 2008

Trevorrrrrrrrrrrrr posted:

In other news I chickened out on an earnings put I had and took 80% gain yesterday and missed out on a 1000% return if I held, rip like 30k

....closer to 1500% and something like 50k now, jfc

What position was it?

# ? Nov 3, 2022 14:57

Trevorrrrrrrrrrrrr: Jul 4, 2008

35 FIS puts @ 80, literally dropped 20% this morning

# ? Nov 3, 2022 15:08

Canine Blues Arooo: Jan 7, 2008; when you think about it...i'm the first girl you ever spent the night with; Grimey Drawer

Meta at 89.50 puts a big ol smile on my face.

# ? Nov 3, 2022 20:13

Trevorrrrrrrrrrrrr: Jul 4, 2008

Trevorrrrrrrrrrrrr posted:

SOFI below 5 seems like a great deal.

In other news I chickened out on an earnings put I had and took 80% gain yesterday and missed out on a 1000% return if I held, rip like 30k

....closer to 1500% and something like 50k now, jfc

stock finished the day at -28% so missed out on $70,000 due to paper hands

im fine this is fine

# ? Nov 3, 2022 21:04

orange sky: May 7, 2007

Lmao so as I predicted COIN posted a horrible terrible Q3. Up AH. love this poo poo, I should just play blackjack

# ? Nov 3, 2022 21:31

Baddog: May 12, 2001

orange sky posted:

Lmao so as I predicted COIN posted a horrible terrible Q3. Up AH. love this poo poo, I should just play blackjack

You managed to pick the one company that is up AH? Man, today was a raft of terrible earnings reports.

# ? Nov 3, 2022 21:39

lurksion: Mar 21, 2013

My pet DDOG continues to murder their earnings (like they have been doing for like the past 2 years). Not that that helps these days.

# ? Nov 3, 2022 22:29

notwithoutmyanus: Mar 17, 2009

I'm chilling on Etsy, as nobody gives a poo poo about them anyway and they've been dancing the $100 line.

# ? Nov 3, 2022 22:34

drk: Jan 16, 2005

orange sky posted:

Lmao so as I predicted COIN posted a horrible terrible Q3. Up AH. love this poo poo, I should just play blackjack

I mean its up a tiny amount and still lower than it opened this morning.

Also cold comfort for bagholders being up a few percent afterhours when they are down over 20% just in the past 5 days and nearly 80% down YTD. The market appears to be quite aware they arent doing well

# ? Nov 4, 2022 04:27

Landsknecht: Oct 27, 2009; I hope this person is trolling, nobody can be so unfunny and dumb

Hadlock posted:

Here's a random image from the internet, the point it illustrates is that ~~50% is used for power (which goes to both industry and residential), heating and direct use by households

The other 50% roughly is used by industry. If industry shuts down you pick up a lot of slack for power generation and heating. It's not ideal, because you're effectively lobotomizing your heavy industry but there's a lot of consumption you can cut before your citizens start freezing to death in their own homes like in Texas

https://cen.acs.org/energy/Natural-gas-shortages-loom-Germanys/100/i26

Commodities like natural gas are interesting because they're priced differently to stock. With US natgas at a 14 year high this summer shorting it was sort of a no brainer - Biden's moved pretty aggressively to keep a lid on energy prices, and once the rail strike was sorted it was all downhill. Since you're trading based on the US price it also seemed a little simpler than oil or anything else - slightly fewer inputs/outputs/news sources to keep track of.

# ? Nov 4, 2022 16:32

Inner Light: Jan 2, 2020

How active is the discord these days? I never ended up joining but could do with an invite if folks are hanging out there.

# ? Nov 4, 2022 18:50

bollig: Apr 7, 2006; Never Forget.

pmchem posted:

this thread is hilarious

https://twitter.com/JeffWeniger/status/1587586819620749314

This is awesome.

# ? Nov 4, 2022 20:25

lwoodio: Apr 4, 2008

Is that giant spike in '21 from Florida refusing to shut down during COVID?

# ? Nov 4, 2022 20:44

golden bubble: Jun 3, 2011; yospos

https://twitter.com/lhamtil/status/1588266470252974081
https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1588525510476419074
https://twitter.com/Tobin_Tweets/status/1588530246093266944

I should have believed more in Monster Beverage Corporation back in 1995

# ? Nov 4, 2022 21:01

Frequent Handies: Nov 26, 2006; ��

Inner Light posted:

How active is the discord these days? I never ended up joining but could do with an invite if folks are hanging out there.

The only worthwhile portion of it is pretty active during trading hours but speaking from personal experience the degeneracy is magnitudes more than this thread ever glimpses. And that includes all of these SOFI folks.

# ? Nov 4, 2022 23:01

Baddog: May 12, 2001

golden bubble posted:

I should have believed more in Monster Beverage Corporation back in 1995

Jesus christ, wow.

One has built the largest logistics company in the world, along with engineering the cloud computing revolution.

The other makes a canned sugar caffeine drink.

I guess the margins *are* a lot higher on the drink.

# ? Nov 4, 2022 23:55

Pastrami: May 27, 2004; Fear the Lunch Meat

Inner Light posted:

How active is the discord these days? I never ended up joining but could do with an invite if folks are hanging out there.

It is nothing like this thread. Huge variety of strategies and trading discussed there, from intraday trading options/futures, �theta gang� aka option selling, and swing trading.

Yes many (myself included) are way more degenerate than your average post here. If you want to talk about trading you don�t often see in this thread, the discord is probably where you want to be.

# ? Nov 5, 2022 00:08

Frequent Handies: Nov 26, 2006; ��

Pastrami posted:

It is nothing like this thread. Huge variety of strategies and trading discussed there, from intraday trading options/futures, “theta gang” aka option selling, and swing trading.

Yes many (myself included) are way more degenerate than your average post here. If you want to talk about trading you don’t often see in this thread, the discord is probably where you want to be.

Worth joining, it's fun as hell in there.

That said, Pastrami here is the channel equivalent of the long term investing thread if that helps anyone calibrate.

# ? Nov 5, 2022 00:18

Upside Potential: Jun 14, 2006; If you think this guy is terrible, wait till next year.

BFC discord where a long term investment is a 0DTE bought before Euro close.

# ? Nov 5, 2022 00:23

Pastrami: May 27, 2004; Fear the Lunch Meat

Frequent Handies posted:

Worth joining, it's fun as hell in there.

That said, Pastrami here is the channel equivalent of the long term investing thread if that helps anyone calibrate.

Yeah, investing long term in naked short uvxy calls and short 80 50% otm Burlington coat factory lottos 🤣

# ? Nov 5, 2022 00:37

FistEnergy: Nov 3, 2000; DAY CREW: WORKING HARD; Fun Shoe

The discord is primarily good for discussing food and cats. the investing discussion is more hit-or-miss

# ? Nov 5, 2022 03:48

notwithoutmyanus: Mar 17, 2009

Wha, there's a discord for trading degens? Where the hell is this and how did I miss it?

# ? Nov 5, 2022 05:09

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

notwithoutmyanus posted:

Wha, there's a discord for trading degens? Where the hell is this and how did I miss it?

I guarantee you most of these people suck at trading and are mostly blowing their excess income. There's probably about 10% of the userbase that actually makes money and everyone else aspires to chase them but struggles. This is true for essentially every single "trading group" out there and I really do not see why the 2020s Something Awful userbase would be an exception.

# ? Nov 5, 2022 05:21

notwithoutmyanus: Mar 17, 2009

SKULL.GIF posted:

I guarantee you most of these people suck at trading and are mostly blowing their excess income. There's probably about 10% of the userbase that actually makes money and everyone else aspires to chase them but struggles. This is true for essentially every single "trading group" out there and I really do not see why the 2020s Something Awful userbase would be an exception.

Oh, totally. I would not be surprised if 10% is optimistic, as well. I mean those are the loudest folks, too, always silent in a loss or telling everyone about a win.

# ? Nov 5, 2022 06:04

Lord_Hambrose: Nov 21, 2008; *a foul hooting fills the air*

Can confirm silently suffering from bad choices the Discord has inspired

# ? Nov 5, 2022 12:15

melon cat: Jan 21, 2010; Nap Ghost

SKULL.GIF posted:

I guarantee you most of these people suck at trading and are mostly blowing their excess income. There's probably about 10% of the userbase that actually makes money and everyone else aspires to chase them but struggles. This is true for essentially every single "trading group" out there and I really do not see why the 2020s Something Awful userbase would be an exception.

And a lot of these "trading groups" are filled with bots hawking worthless stocks. Anyone who knows what they're doing sure as poo poo isn't in a "Stock Traders of 2022" Facebook group telling middle aged stay at home moms how to get rich from investing.

# ? Nov 5, 2022 14:58

pmchem: Jan 22, 2010

I think you could basically pick loser stocks based on increasing trend of 'value' investing posts on reddit. saw this with $intc all year. now, $para

https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/ym74gq/paramount_para_the_cheapest_stock_in_the_market/

# ? Nov 5, 2022 15:33

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

melon cat posted:

And a lot of these "trading groups" are filled with bots hawking worthless stocks. Anyone who knows what they're doing sure as poo poo isn't in a "Stock Traders of 2022" Facebook group telling middle aged stay at home moms how to get rich from investing.

There's people with legit knowledge and ability out there but yeah, because of the huge speculative frenzy of the past few years they're drowned out by morons left and right. Same story as it ever was, going back to Amsterdam in the 17th century.

Lord_Hambrose posted:

Can confirm silently suffering from bad choices the Discord has inspired

Avoid 0dte if you haven't already learned that lesson. I tell this to pretty much everyone trying to do this poo poo. Over this past year 0dte trading has absolutely loving exploded, it's something ridiculous like over 40% of all options trading activity now, and I wouldn't be surprised to find out that the majority of these trades are losers.

# ? Nov 5, 2022 16:00

ARTPUP: Jun 7, 2013

Made me laugh:
https://twitter.com/CSMFHT/status/1588849186224898050?s=20&t=pvI8wr99CnpuHHJkL7AnVQ

# ? Nov 5, 2022 20:03

Chill Monster: Apr 23, 2014

Does a big dump like this mean that an institutional investor either dumped their stock or shorted the poo poo out of the company?

# ? Nov 7, 2022 00:26

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

Chill Monster posted:

Does a big dump like this mean that an institutional investor either dumped their stock or shorted the poo poo out of the company?

Their quarterly earnings report, and especially their forward guidance, was terrible: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/funko-stock-cut-in-half-as-earnings-shrink-and-holiday-forecast-calls-for-no-growth/ar-AA13Ihjs

# ? Nov 7, 2022 00:41

Hadlock: Nov 9, 2004

P/E 17.60 for a company forecasting no growth is still pretty loving good. If I had extra fun money I'd buy Q1'23 puts on that

# ? Nov 7, 2022 01:58

Cacafuego: Jul 22, 2007

Chill Monster posted:

Does a big dump like this mean that an institutional investor either dumped their stock or shorted the poo poo out of the company?

Howdy UAVS friend :smith:

# ? Nov 7, 2022 02:31

drk: Jan 16, 2005

lol, $CVNA. I looked at it today because any stock down >10% in one day is funny. Only to realize they are down 97% YTD.

The run up in 2020/2021 was understandably short lived with used car prices down. But, they are now trading 90% below where they were in 2019, and even below their 2017 IPO price

# ? Nov 7, 2022 21:43

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# ? May 21, 2024 16:48

greasyhands: Oct 28, 2006; Best quality posts,
freshly delivered

CVNA is almost certainly hurtling towards ch11 restructuring

# ? Nov 8, 2022 15:28

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Ask/Tell > Business, Finance, and Careers > Livestock Trading Thread: Baa or better

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