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Woodchip
Mar 28, 2010
https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1588592242221993984

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Basic Poster
May 11, 2015

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.

On Facebook
from the inland northwest, heavy wet accumulation of up to 6 inches. Wet, so, real heavy. Limbs falling like crazy all over, power is out. resolution was originally set at 2:45 pm pacific. Has been updated to 8pm tomorrow lol. lows forecasted in the low teens from Sunday on. Good luck prol crewmen!

RandomBlue
Dec 30, 2012

hay guys!


Biscuit Hider

Wow, they moved Fayetteville into Benton county. I might've noticed if I got out more.

Real hurthling!
Sep 11, 2001




this morning visibility in the north bronx was virtually nil. i never saw fog so thick persist through the morning.

Perry Mason Jar
Feb 24, 2006

"Della? Take a lid"
I got some great pictures of the low fog west of the Manhattan skyline. You getting the grill ready for this low to mid 70s weekend?

Real hurthling!
Sep 11, 2001




Perry Mason Jar posted:

I got some great pictures of the low fog west of the Manhattan skyline. You getting the grill ready for this low to mid 70s weekend?

im an apartment goon sadly and my route to the park is going to be blocked by a river of marathon runners this weekend so im gonna open all the windows and go out in the airshaft and plant spring bulbs in my unsanctioned planter boxes and maybe do chili just to spite the warm weather

Perry Mason Jar
Feb 24, 2006

"Della? Take a lid"
Nice. Hell yeah

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



The GFS is going ham on a system that hasn't even formed yet

https://twitter.com/EricBurrisWESH/status/1588663135527137281?s=20&t=BmvqRY3luVc1GMUInk8yGg

Koirhor
Jan 14, 2008

by Fluffdaddy

rounding error

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

Not Lake Charles.

Not credible.

redleader
Aug 18, 2005

Engage according to operational parameters

#lockitin

SirPablo
May 1, 2004

Pillbug
GFS VERSUS EURO WHO WILL loving WIN

Rubellavator
Aug 16, 2007

dueling model crisis

Spaced God
Feb 8, 2014

All torment, trouble, wonder and amazement
Inhabits here: some heavenly power guide us
Out of this fearful country!



The GFS is a dogshit model no one uses, especially for tropical storms because it's just straight up not geared to think about them

Spaced God
Feb 8, 2014

All torment, trouble, wonder and amazement
Inhabits here: some heavenly power guide us
Out of this fearful country!



Our office jokes that the GFS is just programmed to send any low pressure system in the Atlantic to either Miami or New Orleans as like an 876mb megastorm just to gently caress with people

Hexigrammus
May 22, 2006

Cheech Wizard stories are clean, wholesome, reflective truths that go great with the marijuana munchies and a blow job.

Basic Poster posted:

from the inland northwest, heavy wet accumulation of up to 6 inches. Wet, so, real heavy. Limbs falling like crazy all over, power is out. resolution was originally set at 2:45 pm pacific. Has been updated to 8pm tomorrow lol. lows forecasted in the low teens from Sunday on. Good luck prol crewmen!

On the coast we had a heavy rain & wind system come through. 40 km/hr (25 mph) gusting to 60 (37) which should be nbd but a lot of the trees are still in leaf because we've only had 10 days of fall. 145,000 electricity customers without power this morning. A lot seem to be service drops to individual houses. B.C. Hydro continues to advise that keeping the supplies necessary to survive 72 hours without power is a Really Good loving Idea, folks.

Tried to leave the house to take care of the pony shortly after it started. Opened a west-facing door and just noped out. Snapping, popping, and thumping all through the woods. I'm pretty sure the gusts were stronger than 60. It was more an evil spirit than a storm coming through. Pony had to fend for herself until things died down enough that I could get out and open her gate so she could huddle under the eaves against the house. She likes to hang out by the basement window where she can see us, the dog, and the cats sitting by the wood stove. Fortunately she's not under the massive fir that took out the bottom fence of her paddock. If this keeps up she might have to move into the basement.

just lol at the people suggesting we need to have underground power service everywhere like they do in Alberta. Uh, have you not noticed all the bedrock outcroppings we have here? Kind of our thing, like rain.

SirPablo
May 1, 2004

Pillbug

Spaced God posted:

The GFS is a dogshit model no one uses, especially for tropical storms because it's just straight up not geared to think about them

:wrong:

Perry Mason Jar
Feb 24, 2006

"Della? Take a lid"
Great Florida Storms

Koirhor
Jan 14, 2008

by Fluffdaddy
75 degrees and solid 25-40mph winds all day so I can’t enjoy it outside

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



the last GFS run I saw has it zig-zagging around near FL for a few days

Spaced God
Feb 8, 2014

All torment, trouble, wonder and amazement
Inhabits here: some heavenly power guide us
Out of this fearful country!




all the cool kids use the HRRR or the NAM these days :cool:

Spaced God
Feb 8, 2014

All torment, trouble, wonder and amazement
Inhabits here: some heavenly power guide us
Out of this fearful country!



unless you're talking about the reasoning behind why the GFS sucks for tropical storms which i will concede because it's been literally years since my forecasting class but iirc it has something to do with how it handles sea surface temps

SirPablo
May 1, 2004

Pillbug
https://sites.google.com/ucar.edu/operational-models-encyclo/home

HRRR is great, assuming you don't want a forecast beyond 36 hours. Power mets mostly use ensemble data though, not individual models.

hobbesmaster
Jan 28, 2008

SirPablo posted:

GFS VERSUS EURO WHO WILL loving WIN

it’ll be NAM

we’ll all laugh when the storm comes into NAM’s forecast range and extra hard when it predicts 700mb but who will be laughing when a hypercane hits Miami?

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Just look at this poo poo

https://twitter.com/ya18300896/status/1588933349548363776?s=20&t=v-CrFc-KwWhrnORdTz6yGA

FistEnergy
Nov 3, 2000

DAY CREW: WORKING HARD

Fun Shoe

Koirhor posted:

75 degrees and solid 25-40mph winds all day so I can’t enjoy it outside

:same:

I'm winterizing my plant beds and patio/deck areas today and I warned my neighbor not to climb his second story roof to hang Christmas light today but he's not listening

:shrug:

Perry Mason Jar
Feb 24, 2006

"Della? Take a lid"

Lmao

SirPablo
May 1, 2004

Pillbug

Plausible. Here's the rub friend, all forecasts are wrong.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Hexigrammus posted:

just lol at the people suggesting we need to have underground power service everywhere like they do in Alberta. Uh, have you not noticed all the bedrock outcroppings we have here? Kind of our thing, like rain.

maybe they should have thought about this before colonizing the land

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

SirPablo posted:

Plausible. Here's the rub friend, all forecasts are wrong.

drake no: forecasts
drake yes: foreskins

jetz0r
May 10, 2003

Tomorrow, our nation will sit on the throne of the world. This is not a figment of the imagination, but a fact. Tomorrow we will lead the world, Allah willing.




hell yeah, gimme that mid-nov miami-tampa-nantucket hurricane.

Gunshow Poophole
Sep 14, 2008

OMBUDSMAN
POSTERS LOCAL 42069




Clapping Larry
remember remember the 5th of November
today it was windy and hot
there might be a reason why things we called "seasons"
are already being forgot

SirPablo
May 1, 2004

Pillbug
Those idiots at the hurricane center are giving that wave a 40% chance of developing.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



SirPablo posted:

Those idiots at the hurricane center are giving that wave a 40% chance of developing.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
In two days

80% in 5

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



The most recent run of the Euro has it as a depression/weak TS hanging around FL for a week or so before it gets pulled northeast by a frontal system

tater_salad
Sep 15, 2007


I'm currently sweating my rear end off because it's 80 and my heat and everything have been readied for winter

Wolfy
Jul 13, 2009

lock it the gently caress in

Hexigrammus
May 22, 2006

Cheech Wizard stories are clean, wholesome, reflective truths that go great with the marijuana munchies and a blow job.

mawarannahr posted:

maybe they should have thought about this before colonizing the land

The first colonists from Scotland wrote that they found this place gloomy and depressing, and the trees oppressive. They had their warning.

I assume the only reason they stayed was that there was more to eat here than just kale and other people's cattle - we have salmon!

RandomBlue
Dec 30, 2012

hay guys!


Biscuit Hider

Hexigrammus posted:

we have salmon!

not for long

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Moot .1415926535
Mar 24, 2006

Yep, that's pretty much it.
hmmm I have to fly through it on an 8 seater plane tomorrow I’ll let you know

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