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ErIog posted:
On the other hand they have a massive real-estate/asset bubble fit to burst just like the US in the mid-2000s and Japan in the 1990s. Will they somehow avoid making it a three-peat? ErIog posted:I know it seems like this is true, but the whole thing about becoming a cop is, broadly, that you kind of not being a complete gently caress-up on your way to being a cop. If he becomes a cop it will be, as you said, a county or local cop. However, it's gonna be somewhere not even as prestigious as Illinois. Also if he tries to do Armored Car work (or any job that has you carrying a firearm that isn't police) it's going to involve getting people he knows to swear up and down that he is an upstanding person who knows how to use guns responsibly. Which good luck when your previous track record of gun usage is out in public.
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Nov 8, 2022 15:33
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"The Anti Woke Fight"  I swear this looks like a parody it is so unhinged.https://twitter.com/GovRonDeSantis/status/1589652648915075075?t=9CqCsjN4SLnG-4RPAX-gPw&s=19
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Nov 8, 2022 15:57
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Panfilo posted:"The Anti Woke Fight" its because culture war poo poo is loving hard preem poo poo for the chud base now and they are the GOP.
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Nov 8, 2022 16:30
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Panfilo posted:"The Anti Woke Fight" If the Dems manage to beat the odds and win big today, a big reason is probably going to be that the GOP finally managed to go too far with insane culture war poo poo like this. Like there may be an actual bottom where this turns off too many people for them to win all but the reddest areas.
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Nov 8, 2022 16:59
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All I know is whenever I read or hear the phrase "promote patriotic education" I feel a cold chill. One would hope that would be the normal response.
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Nov 8, 2022 17:25
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Queering Wheel posted:If the Dems manage to beat the odds and win big today, a big reason is probably going to be that the GOP finally managed to go too far with insane culture war poo poo like this. Like there may be an actual bottom where this turns off too many people for them to win all but the reddest areas.
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Nov 8, 2022 17:33
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I think the Dems are going to get creamed. They have been trending down in the polls and I think the economic problems the country is facing will be the nail in the coffin. I hope they at least cling to the Senate or otherwise I’m sure the GOP will freeze all judicial nominations until either Trump or Desantis inevitably coasts to victory on the back of Harper v Moore so they can CHUD up the courts even more. I think there is a decent chance this will be the last contested election in the States, once the independent state legislature theory is established as the law of the land it’s going to get really ugly. Thinking strongly about pulling up stakes and moving to Germany, at least they’ve already worked out the whole Nazi thing.
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Nov 8, 2022 18:03
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Lawdog69 posted:I think the Dems are going to get creamed. They have been trending down in the polls and I think the economic problems the country is facing will be the nail in the coffin. I hope they at least cling to the Senate or otherwise I’m sure the GOP will freeze all judicial nominations until either Trump or Desantis inevitably coasts to victory on the back of Harper v Moore so they can CHUD up the courts even more. I think there is a decent chance this will be the last contested election in the States, once the independent state legislature theory is established as the law of the land it’s going to get really ugly. Seems like the end result of that would just be you're still in a country that's experiencing a terrifying shift rightward except now you're an immigrant there too
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Nov 8, 2022 18:13
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RadioDog posted:All I know is whenever I read or hear the phrase "promote patriotic education" I feel a cold chill. One would hope that would be the normal response. Absolutely. "teaching kids patriotic education" is communist China poo poo. My mother-in-law fled Mao. She's terrified of the GOP because in her words "we're making the same mistakes china made".
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Nov 8, 2022 18:20
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pop fly to McGillicutty posted:Absolutely. "teaching kids patriotic education" is communist China poo poo. Or any other authoritarian state, really. It's a staple of those regimes and as a college professor the possibility of having to deal with that poo poo as enforced policy is scary as hell.
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Nov 8, 2022 18:46
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pop fly to McGillicutty posted:Absolutely. "teaching kids patriotic education" is communist China poo poo. It's fascist authoritarian poo poo, not communist. If we call it communist we're losing useful information.
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Nov 8, 2022 18:52
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Lawdog69 posted:I think the Dems are going to get creamed. They have been trending down in the polls and I think the economic problems the country is facing will be the nail in the coffin. I hope they at least cling to the Senate or otherwise I’m sure the GOP will freeze all judicial nominations until either Trump or Desantis inevitably coasts to victory on the back of Harper v Moore so they can CHUD up the courts even more. I think there is a decent chance this will be the last contested election in the States, once the independent state legislature theory is established as the law of the land it’s going to get really ugly. Cross posting from USCE I'm not thrilled about tonight's inevitable GOP blowout. What worries me more, though, is that it's going to be parlayed into a self justifying stance that the new election laws and all the bullshit they got up to are proof that "this time it wasn't stolen" and this time we won. See what happens when we rin poo poo FAIR? I mean, they're gonna do that anyway but it's going to be, to many, the old magic rock that keeps the tigers away rather than just, you know, the fact that they actually won the elections. This si what I expect to hear in RWM circle this week, along with how it's a refutation of "socialism". I wish to god if we had to go down in flames with socialist ideas, we at least elected a socialist president. loving lol at Biden being that. Ya'll can go to bed early tonight cause this is gonna be a massacre
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Nov 9, 2022 02:23
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What the gently caress is K-20? I assume it’s like K-12 but includes college and grad school?
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Nov 9, 2022 02:27
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I AM GRANDO posted:What the gently caress is K-20? I assume it’s like K-12 but includes college and grad school? Wasn't that one of those submarine lines famed for being deathtraps?
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Nov 9, 2022 02:35
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After The War posted:Wasn't that one of those submarine lines famed for being deathtraps? K-19 was a second gen* Soviet nuclear submarine (Hotel-class, if you want the NATO designation) that had what I will employ startling understatement to describe as significant teething issues. *The November class were the first gen nuclear attack subs, the Hotels were ballistic missile subs.
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Nov 9, 2022 05:40
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pop fly to McGillicutty posted:My mother-in-law fled Mao. She's terrified of the GOP because in her words "we're making the same mistakes china made". Sadly we are not making the "mistake" Mao made regarding landlords.
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Nov 9, 2022 05:58
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Captain_Maclaine posted:K-19 was a second gen* Soviet nuclear submarine (Hotel-class, if you want the NATO designation) that had what I will employ startling understatement to describe as significant teething issues. Was actually thinking of these guys from much earlier: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_K-class_submarine?wprov=sfla1 A steam engine might be a better fit for a submarine than a screen door, but not by much. Of the 18 built, 6 sank... and none of them through enemy action.
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Nov 9, 2022 07:52
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BiggerBoat posted:I'm not thrilled about tonight's inevitable GOP blowout. The results we're seeing are not surprising and there was nothing "inevitable" about a GOP blowout. When you looked at numbers instead of doomer poo poo, "status quo to very minor Republican advantage in the house" was a pretty reasonable bet, and it's shaping up to be roughly that. On top of that, the Trumpist candidates did not do well, and that's true even if Boebert pulls it out through late-counted votes. Your average Republican still sucks, but your average Republican is merely standing by for an insurrection while the Trumpists are causing them and as grim as that may sound, that is an improvement. It looks like the youth vote might have really turned out for the Democrats, too, and that bodes well for the future as voters tend to be pretty reliable once activated.
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Nov 9, 2022 09:41
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I was one of the ones who thought the GOP was going to win big too and while maybe I shouldn't have been convinced it was inevitable, I don't think it was an insane thing to believe. Considering how hard Republicans went on the culture war bullshit (especially after Roe being overturned) to see that the polls were saying that a lot races were close was I thought a bad sign. I saw it as meaning that the Republicans being batshit crazy wasn't hurting them, and combined with the fact that they were more or less the only ones addressing high food and gas prices (even if everything they would do would make it worse) while Dems were just saying "Democracy is on the ballot!" seemed like it would doom them. That said, I think every race where the polls showed a clear winner turned out about how everyone expected them to. Like, Vance won Ohio, DeSantis won in Florida, Hochul crushed Zeldin, etc., because those were races where the winner was always showing a massive lead that was essentially insurmountable barring something crazy. There were a lot of 1-3% point races that well, as we're seeing, essentially could have gone either way because they were within the margin of error. So the problem I had, at least, was just looking at the poll results and seeing, say, Oz with a 0.8% lead over Fetterman and saying "It's over." Well, it wasn't. Because while the race was definitely close, the margin of error exists and the race always had the possibility of going either way, so it was presumptive to just assume "whoever the polls show is ahead will win." At least, I don't think there's been any races where a candidate who was polling massively behind suddenly jumped out to be the winner, but I dunno every race. I think the other problem was I was looking at polling averages and assuming they were correct too. While averages are useful for sure, potentially more than individual polls, one or two bad polls can throw off the average and make races look closer than they are. I know Trafalgar is the biggest offender here, which had wildly inaccurate polls that showed Republicans ahead by massive numbers in some areas, as well as making races that weren't even close look very close (I think they had Lee Zeldin up by like 1 point or something a couple of weeks ago and there was literally no way Zeldin was ever that close, every other poll showed Hochul ahead by double digits). But yeah, I am genuinely surprised the Dems did this well, since at the moment it looks like they will probably hold the Senate (Georgia going to a runoff looms large though) and it isn't even impossible for them to keep the House (even if it might only be by one seat), since the Dems honestly deserved a repeat of 2014's midterm results. I'm no fan of them, I just hope that they actually try to accomplish things and keep some promises, my big worry is they're just going to go "Sweet so saying the Republicans are going to destroy democracy is a ticket to victory, we can just relax until 2024." To come back around to the thread title though, I am especially looking forward to drinking Sean Hannity's delicious tears on his show tomorrow.
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Nov 9, 2022 10:05
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Twelve by Pies posted:I was one of the ones who thought the GOP was going to win big too and while maybe I shouldn't have been convinced it was inevitable, I don't think it was an insane thing to believe. A runoff likely favors Warnock in Georgia, like it did last time, thanks to no other big elections to bring people out and people being lukewarm on Walker to begin with. In order to be able to hold important things, like continuing to be able to appoint federal judges and whatnot, the dems will need to hold on to the rest of the seats, with Nevada seemingly heading red (negating Fetterman's win in PA). Hopefully nothing dumb as hell happens in AZ in the meantime. I honestly hate rooting for the democrats though, but definitely this is the preferred result.
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Nov 9, 2022 15:36
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Sax Mortar posted:A runoff likely favors Warnock in Georgia, like it did last time, thanks to no other big elections to bring people out and people being lukewarm on Walker to begin with. Yeah, one can argue that the only reason why it is heading to a runoff is that Walker rode Kemp's coattails, which won't be a help in the runoff.
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Nov 9, 2022 17:47
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Biden had the best midterm performance in over half a century, dooming about the midterms when inflation is this high and gas prices high was not at all out of line. Biden just did unbelievably well.
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Nov 9, 2022 20:34
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Jaxyon posted:Biden had the best midterm performance in over half a century, Absolutely true. And, as mentioned, it seems to be correlated to an extremely strong youth voter turnout, which,  The governorship pickups are huge, too. Shapiro winning in PA is big for election integrity in 2024, for example. quote:dooming about the midterms when inflation is this high and gas prices high was not at all out of line. This part isn't, though. The constant incessant shouting, out of the same couple-dozen people, about how Everything Was Lost was consistently was in the face of (historically generally reliable) polling projecting this election somewhere around "meh bad" and "meh good". It's more that doomerism is fundamentally and inescapably bad for your brain. You can choose to ruin your own brain and that's your right, but the vile part is that turning on that faucet to poo poo it out in the direction of other people is politically discouraging and disempowering even when it's right. It's societal sabotage and it's ever more galling when we had ample reason to doubt it in this case, to boot. It is very fortunate for all of us that the electorate, in aggregate, doesn't seem to listen to it.
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Nov 9, 2022 20:40
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tracecomplete posted:Absolutely true. And, as mentioned, it seems to be correlated to an extremely strong youth voter turnout, which, There's also definitely a group of doomers on these very forums who are generally aggressive about any idea more hopeful than "The demons coming to snack on our delicious brainmeats are going to be an hour late, so your eternity of torment will be delayed".
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Nov 9, 2022 21:20
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The polling was pretty bad this year, probably worse than ever
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Nov 9, 2022 21:45
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Honestly it wasn't. Most of the polls themselves outside of Trafalger and other Republican firms who were clearly making poo poo up were actually pretty decent outside of NH and CO Senate races. The issue was the aggregators all adding their own special +GOP sauce in because they were terrified of another 2016/2020 and also incorporating the bullshit GOP firms as reliable. The misses were significantly worse in 16 and 20 overall.
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Nov 9, 2022 21:50
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I think it's time to dust off the old "demographic advantage 100 years of dem rule forever" chestnut and I'm only 70% joking.
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Nov 9, 2022 21:53
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Zore posted:Honestly it wasn't. Most of the polls themselves outside of Trafalger and other Republican firms who were clearly making poo poo up were actually pretty decent outside of NH and CO Senate races. I agree with you, but you're gonna get dogpiled for being reasonable about the nature of polling. People did this same poo poo in 2016 and 2020, vowed never to pay attention to polls again, and then have proceeded to Charlie Brown/Lucy/football themselves. I spent weeks telling people prior to 2016 that a Trump win could happen, not likely, but scarily possible based on the polling information. Then Trump wins and they get out their pitchforks to go after anything polling-adjacent when if they had been reading it properly instead of huffing their own farts they wouldn't have been so devastated. Also, for all the smugness about how bad the polling was in this election, the important outcome of most likely GOP house with toss-up senate is on track to happen exactly as expected. So I think probably a lot of people should be careful about doing victory laps. Dems did better than expected, but have very likely lost the house. ErIog fucked around with this message at 22:03 on Nov 9, 2022 |
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Nov 9, 2022 21:59
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Hannity is saying he expects a 20 seat majority in the House, but I think he's being way too optimistic. Last I saw was probably more like a five or six seat majority. Which does suck, but is incredibly impressive considering that this is a midterm election with one of the worst economies we've seen and it very easily could have been a 20 or 30 seat majority.
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Nov 9, 2022 22:38
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Twelve by Pies posted:Hannity is saying he expects a 20 seat majority in the House, but I think he's being way too optimistic. Last I saw was probably more like a five or six seat majority. Which does suck, but is incredibly impressive considering that this is a midterm election with one of the worst economies we've seen and it very easily could have been a 20 or 30 seat majority. Hanity would look at a clear sky and tell you it's raining if it served his purposes.
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Nov 9, 2022 23:00
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We're a lot closer to a 1 seat difference in the House than 20 right now and anything less than 10 is going to feature a completely dysfunctional GOP house, one that makes 2017-2018 look laser focused.
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Nov 9, 2022 23:03
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I think it ranges from Dems leading with at most 5 or so seats to Republicans leading with up to 18 or so seats.
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Nov 9, 2022 23:03
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Fox quoting Haberman for a headline is great. https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/1590432837131374592 https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1590370778188763137
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Nov 10, 2022 00:39
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OgNar posted:Fox quoting Haberman for a headline is great. Thank you Melanie for Senator-elect Fetterman! 
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Nov 10, 2022 01:09
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tracecomplete posted:Absolutely true. And, as mentioned, it seems to be correlated to an extremely strong youth voter turnout, which, As somebody who both went right to the polls to vote D after work yesterday, and is happy dems held so much territory, being truthful about how hosed everything still is doesn't seem to me as bad as you make it out to be. You do you though. Scuse me what I meant is "my brain will crush your brain like fetterman crushed Oz, puny hoper!
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Nov 10, 2022 01:31
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Twelve by Pies posted:Hannity is saying he expects a 20 seat majority in the House, but I think he's being way too optimistic. Last I saw was probably more like a five or six seat majority. Which does suck, but is incredibly impressive considering that this is a midterm election with one of the worst economies we've seen and it very easily could have been a 20 or 30 seat majority. It will suck that the GOP controls the House... if they can get their poo poo together and control the House. A 5 seat majority makes it much more likely that there's a knife fight between the full-MAGA-deny-the-election-Trump-is-God-ers and the ones trying to pull the party back to dog whistles and hidden threats to democracy. Remember the House Freedom Caucus destroying every GOP proposal because nothing Speakers Boehner or Ryan put forward was regressive enough? Leading to a couple of government shutdowns because Republicans couldn't approve their own budget? That directly led to Boehner retiring out of frustration, and weeks of negotiations before they finally agreed to allow Ryan to become Speaker? That sabotaged the first Ryan attempt to repeal Obamacare because it didn't repeal enough of it? That said Trump "succumbed to the DC Establishment" when he called them out on their opposition? That was with a 50 to 60 vote majority. Now they'll be lucky to have 12. They are not going to get poo poo done. skeleton warrior fucked around with this message at 02:12 on Nov 10, 2022 |
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Nov 10, 2022 01:45
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nine-gear crow posted:Thank you Melanie for Senator-elect Fetterman! I don't think she cares, do you?
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Nov 10, 2022 01:46
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OgNar posted:Fox quoting Haberman for a headline is great. Wait, does Trump think he's betting on horses or something? The more winners he picks the better he's doing, so picking a loser by accident makes him look bad?
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Nov 10, 2022 05:15
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Clarste posted:Wait, does Trump think he's betting on horses or something? The more winners he picks the better he's doing, so picking a loser by accident makes him look bad? Basically, he hates being associated with “losers”, probably some unresolved trauma.
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Nov 10, 2022 05:35
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numerrik posted:Basically, he hates being associated with “losers”, probably some unresolved trauma. Fred Trump ruthlessly hosed up all his children's minds with his batshit German hand-me-down ubermensch bullshit that resulted in one of them dying, and the survivors all being absolutely abhorrent people. Donnie's daddy 100% said the phrase "second place is the first loser" to him probably more than once in complete sincerity over the course of his life.
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Nov 10, 2022 08:17
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