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Lord of Pie
Mar 2, 2007



2022 isn't over, there's still time

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Woke Mind Virus
Aug 22, 2005

WoodrowSkillson
Feb 24, 2005

*Gestures at 60 years of Lions history*

Nix Panicus posted:

Watching professional wrestling and having all the terms and types of storylines spelled out should be a required part of modern education.

its stupid how accurate this statement is

ex post facho
Oct 25, 2007

Ardennes posted:

I would say the problem with comtemporary Marxism/Marxist study is that it simply lacks the historical tools to make much forward progress and a lot of that is that the revisionism of the Cold War period has left a firm mark.

Also, at least according to the NYT, the Republicans are seat away from taking control in the House and maybe will have a majority of 2-5 (-ish shrug). The perfect prescription for deadlock.

I find the narrative about all of this pretty interesting. Most liberals are celebrating a "grand victory" over the Republicans, when the GOP will likely still have enough seats to maintain control and block any serious piece of legislation (beyond treaties and judicial appointments.) You would think the guys who were crowing about "the New Deal 2.0" would be upset about all of this even if the election didn't go as poorly as expected.

I think the problem with most predictions is that people constantly hope for what would be the "best case scenario" for the American people (at least in their minds) but the reality is going to end up being what is the absolute worse/most cynical result. In this case, it is the perfect setup for more foreign adventurism and eventually a "grand" budget compromise.

astute analysis to point out that the democrats were, in fact, destroyed

Real hurthling!
Sep 11, 2001




FreeRangeHexagon posted:

Democrats have a strong culture of toxic positivity, which is why they are acting like they just won. Republicans love being angry all the time, which is why they are acting like they just got wiped out. In fact this was the closest thing to a draw that is possible. Which is still good for the democrats/bad for the republicans, considering the handicap the party that holds the presidency has in the midterms. But the fact that they are refusing to acknowledge how they hosed up/could have done better isn't a great sign for the democrats going forward. Problem is they may not need to correct course because Republicans seem dead set on making themselves as unlikeable possible. In a functional country this would clear the way for a third party/independent to threaten both parties. But the two party system is so entrenched there is nowhere for energy to go but from one party to the other. Just an eternal race to the bottom.

the next few cycles arent going to be so kind to the senate dems. the elections this year were like a dream scenario for holding on

ex post facho
Oct 25, 2007

Lib and let die posted:

Since when were you under the impression it wasn't going to be two more years of trump hysteriia?

never was b*txh

ex post facho
Oct 25, 2007
it's going to be extremely funny watching libs go all-out campaigning to help Sinema and Manchin keep their seats next year

StashAugustine
Mar 24, 2013

Do not trust in hope- it will betray you! Only faith and hatred sustain.

THS2 posted:

can you explain what dissipation means but without being some kind of malthusian doomer or whatever "humanrats are going to be destroyed" means

I think it originally means that like a bulletproof vest stops a bullet but a lot of the energy carries on (as it "dissipates" into your chest), the democrats may stop social progress but are shifted somewhat by the energy of the movement. now, I'm not saying this isn't practically speaking horseshit, I'm just saying that's what he meant

Chris James 2
Aug 9, 2012


Snipee posted:

They can at least put in the work

:rubby:

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

ex post facho posted:

it's going to be extremely funny watching libs go all-out campaigning to help Sinema and Manchin keep their seats next year

Loyal soldiers deserve every sacrifice

ex post facho posted:

astute analysis to point out that the democrats were, in fact, destroyed

I wouldn’t say they won

Lib and let die
Aug 26, 2004

Ardennes posted:

Loyal soldiers deserve every sacrifice

Amidala: So we're going to start providing public housing to homeless veterans, right?

Zodium
Jun 19, 2004

THS2 posted:

i looked it up and it looked like some kind of science thing. because marxism is the scientific study of political economy it absorbs whatever new scientific thinking is available in much the same way a lot of sociologists, psychologists, and other academics were working in the context of marxism before severe repression in the 50s. though obviously there are plenty of academics across the globe working with marxist theory now. im not an academic and i dont know wtf zodium is talking about from a quick google but if "systems thinking" involves systemic study of material conditions, well zodium buddy, have i got an ideology for you

dissipation is irreversibly transforming energy, and in that sense, dissipative systems and structures are more or less what they say on the tin. a simple example is the pot of fluid on a hot stove systematically forming bubbles that "shunt energy in a controlled manner," as you put it, from the bottom to the top. without dissipation, the pot would explode. tornados are a more complex example that broadly works in the same way, with structures of wind rather than water. living organisms more generally can also be considered still more complex dissipative structures, a necessary function of dissipating the solar energy to which earth as a system is open. by contrast, conservative systems are invariant. i've previously used dissipative systems to explain proof of work cryptocurrency as a system for dissipating excess energy that Capital can't currently conserve to reproduce capitalism, and I thought it would be interesting to toy with dynamical structures as models of bourgeois electoral systems that more or less develop into conserving systems (e.g., politics for conserving behavior for reproducing capitalism) and dissipative systems (e.g., politics for safely dissipating leftist behavior necessarily produced by the internal contradictions of capitalism), as a means of dynamically structuring behavior rather than energy in the strictly thermodynamic sense.

in any case, i already discovered the immortal science a number of years ago, but I still have a lot to learn, and I was just wondering if anyone had already had this idea so to avoid reinventing the wheel. :3:

Ardennes posted:

I would say the problem with comtemporary Marxism/Marxist study is that it simply lacks the historical tools to make much forward progress and a lot of that is that the revisionism of the Cold War period has left a firm mark.

one of the things that has frustrated me about the english language marxism i've been exposed to is that I struggle to make firm predictions with it without situating it in cybernetics or thermodynamics or complex systems science or another dynamical framework. it seems to lead to either explaining the past in hindsight, or making predictions on an infinite timeline, or, often, both at once, such that you end up less explaining how and when the long-run scenario will occur, and more why the predicted long-run scenario has not yet occurred, by way of the past. this is, to put it bluntly, no way to conduct science, and seems to me a great disservice to how elegant a theory marxism is.

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



Ardennes posted:

I would say the problem with comtemporary Marxism/Marxist study is that it simply lacks the historical tools to make much forward progress and a lot of that is that the revisionism of the Cold War period has left a firm mark.

Also, at least according to the NYT, the Republicans are seat away from taking control in the House and maybe will have a majority of 2-5 (-ish shrug). The perfect prescription for deadlock.

I find the narrative about all of this pretty interesting. Most liberals are celebrating a "grand victory" over the Republicans, when the GOP will likely still have enough seats to maintain control and block any serious piece of legislation (beyond treaties and judicial appointments.) You would think the guys who were crowing about "the New Deal 2.0" would be upset about all of this even if the election didn't go as poorly as expected.

I think the problem with most predictions is that people constantly hope for what would be the "best case scenario" for the American people (at least in their minds) but the reality is going to end up being what is the absolute worse/most cynical result. In this case, it is the perfect setup for more foreign adventurism and eventually a "grand" budget compromise.

the republicans gaining the house is a victory for democrats because, as nancy pelosi said, america needs a strong republican party

tiberion02
Mar 26, 2007

People tend to make the common mistake of believing that a situation will last forever.


the democrats are going to be destroyed

Chris James 2
Aug 9, 2012


https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1592657104476962817

gimme the GOD DAMN candy
Jul 1, 2007
unlike if they had actually kept the house and gained senators, this is what constitutes an actual victory for the dems. the dems can swap between claiming victory (so they don't have to do anything) and defeat (so they would definitely like to do things, but can't). they always openly resented having to pretend to govern, and now they don't have to waste time on it any more. oops, republican house blocked absolutely everything including executive orders somehow. oh, look at the time- it's fundraising o'clock!

Coolness Averted
Feb 20, 2007

oh don't worry, I can't smell asparagus piss, it's in my DNA

GO HOGG WILD!
🐗🐗🐗🐗🐗

gimme the GOD drat candy posted:

unlike if they had actually kept the house and gained senators, this is what constitutes an actual victory for the dems. the dems can swap between claiming victory (so they don't have to do anything) and defeat (so they would definitely like to do things, but can't). they always openly resented having to pretend to govern, and now they don't have to waste time on it any more. oops, republican house blocked absolutely everything including executive orders somehow. oh, look at the time- it's fundraising o'clock!

Yeah, it's a victory in the way all of their weird metrics or bombastic claims about Biden's admin are, but the moment anyone makes a request of those in power to actually improve material conditions, they'll flip-flop to lamenting this defeat and how leftists and progressives cost them the ability to actually do good things. If only we'd voted harder Biden and the dems would have 100% delivered on promises.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
Yeah, it also opens up cover for more bipartisan horse trading which will lead to even worse results.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Abortion Is On The Ballot In 2024!

THS2
Oct 2, 2021

perfect conditions for the grand bargain

Nix Panicus
Feb 25, 2007

Zodium posted:

one of the things that has frustrated me about the english language marxism i've been exposed to is that I struggle to make firm predictions with it without situating it in cybernetics or thermodynamics or complex systems science or another dynamical framework. it seems to lead to either explaining the past in hindsight, or making predictions on an infinite timeline, or, often, both at once, such that you end up less explaining how and when the long-run scenario will occur, and more why the predicted long-run scenario has not yet occurred, by way of the past. this is, to put it bluntly, no way to conduct science, and seems to me a great disservice to how elegant a theory marxism is.

I think Marxism's core problem in being a predictive system is that it, and people in general, continuously underestimate the capacity of the human soul for misery. We keep expecting there to be some breaking point where people look around and realize how totally hosed they are and make some clear eyed comparisons of their life and the life of the elites and come to the conclusion that all that stuff the elites have is the result of theft from the immiserated, and it keeps not happening because your average person has a nearly unlimited capacity for suffering. A pack mule will snap at cruel treatment and fight back long before the average worker will raise a hand to his boss. The real secret of radical revolution is the moments and leaders that crystalize a people's resentment and catalyze their ability to fight back. The underlying material reality is just potential energy that may never otherwise be realized no matter how bad it gets.

Johnny Cache Hit
Oct 17, 2011
Donald trump will win the presidency in 2024 and bring about the final destruction of the democrats

MLSM
Apr 3, 2021

by Azathoth

Ardennes posted:

I would say the problem with comtemporary Marxism/Marxist study is that it simply lacks the historical tools to make much forward progress and a lot of that is that the revisionism of the Cold War period has left a firm mark.

Also, at least according to the NYT, the Republicans are seat away from taking control in the House and maybe will have a majority of 2-5 (-ish shrug). The perfect prescription for deadlock.

I find the narrative about all of this pretty interesting. Most liberals are celebrating a "grand victory" over the Republicans, when the GOP will likely still have enough seats to maintain control and block any serious piece of legislation (beyond treaties and judicial appointments.) You would think the guys who were crowing about "the New Deal 2.0" would be upset about all of this even if the election didn't go as poorly as expected.

I think the problem with most predictions is that people constantly hope for what would be the "best case scenario" for the American people (at least in their minds) but the reality is going to end up being what is the absolute worse/most cynical result. In this case, it is the perfect setup for more foreign adventurism and eventually a "grand" budget compromise.

western Marxism is garbage because it’s been so thoroughly imbued with liberal ideology by bourgeois institutions. even David harvey told people to vote for Hillary and Biden.

that and racism directed at China is politically correct. there’s honest to god marxists in Europe and America calling the CPC bourgeois revisionism lol

The Voice of Labor
Apr 8, 2020

the predictive power of economic systems is a bunch of formulas determining what output you get when given whatever set of variables. marx is no different except the formulas mirror reality. you can calculate how much time is stolen by your boss in a day and you can make good predictions about how much more of your time will be stolen by your boss if the efficiency of job increases, but it's not going to, like, tell you that you should buy bitcoin in 2013 or that the people will rise on october 23rd 2036

Nix Panicus
Feb 25, 2007

Yeah, but if the answer to the Marxist equation is 'shits hosed man, and its only going to get worse' every time but nothing ever comes from it people start doubting whether they got the right answer. Surely if everything was hosed and only getting worse someone would do something about it, right? Maybe the fact that no one is doing anything means everything is actually fine and Marxism is the problem?

The missing part of the problem to reconcile 'everything is getting worse' with 'no one is doing anything' is man's infinite capacity for being poo poo on

StashAugustine
Mar 24, 2013

Do not trust in hope- it will betray you! Only faith and hatred sustain.

more concretely, imperialism managed to shift the worst excesses of capitalism onto the people less able to do anything about it (not that they didn't try and occasionally succeed) and also turns out nationalism is a hell of a drug

THS2
Oct 2, 2021

the biggest mistake rn is ignoring what China is accomplishing with zero covid and very intentional development. rapid improvements are being made there. they weren't loving with "moderately prosperous socialist society by 2020"

China is going to be undisputedly the largest economy in the world within the next year or two. expect the US to completely freak out at not being the 200 military bases supreme Only Superpower

marxists should engage with this more

Relevant Tangent
Nov 18, 2016

Tangentially Relevant

ex post facho posted:

it's going to be extremely funny watching libs go all-out campaigning to help Sinema and Manchin keep their seats next year

everyone hates sinema and she's losing her primary by forty
hate the liberals that actually exist instead of the ones in your head

THS2
Oct 2, 2021

Relevant Tangent posted:

everyone hates sinema and she's losing her primary by forty
hate the liberals that actually exist instead of the ones in your head

MLSM
Apr 3, 2021

by Azathoth

THS2 posted:

the biggest mistake rn is ignoring what China is accomplishing with zero covid and very intentional development. rapid improvements are being made there. they weren't loving with "moderately prosperous socialist society by 2020"

China is going to be undisputedly the largest economy in the world within the next year or two. expect the US to completely freak out at not being the 200 military bases supreme Only Superpower

marxists should engage with this more

comrade Xi my people yearn for freedom

THS2
Oct 2, 2021

please send high speed trains and execute some billionaires, President Xi

Wamsutta
Sep 9, 2001

THS2 posted:

the biggest mistake rn is ignoring what China is accomplishing with zero covid and very intentional development. rapid improvements are being made there. they weren't loving with "moderately prosperous socialist society by 2020"

China is going to be undisputedly the largest economy in the world within the next year or two. expect the US to completely freak out at not being the 200 military bases supreme Only Superpower

marxists should engage with this more

china is like giving up Covid zero tho they’re getting hosed up rn lol. supply chain about to vaporize like the thanos snap

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Nix Panicus posted:

Yeah, but if the answer to the Marxist equation is 'shits hosed man, and its only going to get worse' every time but nothing ever comes from it people start doubting whether they got the right answer. Surely if everything was hosed and only getting worse someone would do something about it, right? Maybe the fact that no one is doing anything means everything is actually fine and Marxism is the problem?

The missing part of the problem to reconcile 'everything is getting worse' with 'no one is doing anything' is man's infinite capacity for being poo poo on

Even neoclassical economists have admitted that extremely high wealth economy is causing issues. I think it is easy for the proletarian revolution to not happen and everything to be hosed and unworkable at the same time.

The capital class gotten better since 1917 in sensing when movements arise and shut them down. The European social safety net very much was part of this compromise, but that required stability and a concerned effort to keep standards of living rising.

Since the late 1970s, it has been working the other way but until the late 2000s/early 2010s; the changes weren't that present to the general population and standards of living hadn't changed that much. Obviously, we are on the other side of that now.

So where do we go from here? I think present-day governments would rather implement fascism/level cities rather than revolutionaries to take control over them but the system is inherently unstable, and it is showing. The future is probably a "drag to the mat" as climate change, inequality, and the damage from geopolitical contests reach a critical point and that the result the system breaks down into chaos (this doesn't take a nuclear war btw).

I believe Marx was completely right in analyzing how capitalism works and what its immediate effect will be, he just was wrong about humanity moving forward to counter-act it. We are going to gouging each others eyes out until the population density gets low enough things quiet down again.

Ardennes has issued a correction as of 12:13 on Nov 16, 2022

Halloween Jack
Sep 12, 2003
I WILL CUT OFF BOTH OF MY ARMS BEFORE I VOTE FOR ANYONE THAT IS MORE POPULAR THAN BERNIE!!!!!

Nix Panicus posted:

I think Marxism's core problem in being a predictive system is that it, and people in general, continuously underestimate the capacity of the human soul for misery. We keep expecting there to be some breaking point where people look around and realize how totally hosed they are and make some clear eyed comparisons of their life and the life of the elites and come to the conclusion that all that stuff the elites have is the result of theft from the immiserated, and it keeps not happening because your average person has a nearly unlimited capacity for suffering. A pack mule will snap at cruel treatment and fight back long before the average worker will raise a hand to his boss. The real secret of radical revolution is the moments and leaders that crystalize a people's resentment and catalyze their ability to fight back. The underlying material reality is just potential energy that may never otherwise be realized no matter how bad it gets.
Marx didn't say that enough immiseration produces revolution, though. Simply being more and more miserable doesn't clarify or crystallize anything. Immiseration guarantees unrest, but not revolution.

I think Marx underestimated the ability of imperial powers to keep the machine running by conquering new territories and new markets. He also couldn't predict how telecommunications gave the ruling class the power to surveil and propagandize the masses closely and constantly. That was his biggest failing, and by failing I mean the inability to perfectly envision and predict every meaningful event in the future.

Halloween Jack has issued a correction as of 17:20 on Nov 16, 2022

THS2
Oct 2, 2021

Wamsutta posted:

china is like giving up Covid zero tho they’re getting hosed up rn lol. supply chain about to vaporize like the thanos snap

not really.

also china's economy is about to collapse, which it had been on the verge of for decades according to the dumbest western "china watchers" alive

Son of Thunderbeast
Sep 21, 2002

THS2 posted:

not really.

also china's economy is about to collapse, which it had been on the verge of for decades according to the dumbest western "china watchers" alive

They're acting like a kid in a car trying to predict when the light's going to turn green. "Aaaand NOW! NOW! and NOW! ....... NOW!" and hoping that when they get it right they can act like they were right all along

MLSM
Apr 3, 2021

by Azathoth

Ardennes posted:

Even neoclassical economists have admitted that extremely high wealth economy is causing issues. I think it is easy for the proletarian revolution to not happen and everything to be hosed and unworkable at the same time.

The capital class gotten better since 1917 in sensing when movements arise and shut them down. The European social safety net very much was part of this compromise, but that required stability and a concerned effort to keep standards of living rising.

Since the late 1970s, it has been working the other way but until the late 2000s/early 2010s; the changes weren't that present to the general population and standards of living hadn't changed that much. Obviously, we are on the other side of that now.

So where do we go from here? I think present-day governments would rather implement fascism/level cities rather than revolutionaries to take control over them but the system is inherently unstable, and it is showing. The future is probably a "drag to the mat" as climate change, inequality, and the damage from geopolitical contests reach a critical point and that the result the system breaks down into chaos (this doesn't take a nuclear war btw).

I believe Marx was completely right in analyzing how capitalism works and what its immediate effect will be, he just was wrong about humanity moving forward to counter-act it. We are going to gouging each others eyes out until the population density gets low enough things quiet down again.

This post reminds me of this book that is coming out to tomorrow: https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/book...20from%20below.




I think your last sentence there is spot on, though. Marx completely underestimated humanity’s collective tolerance for suffering in the modern world. collective human misery was definitely a feature back then as much as it now, just Engels history of the working class england, but they didn’t t have the abundance of distractions that the layman has now, I.e. video games, porn, drugs, TV, internet, etc not to mention modern brainwashing techniques by the ruling class

Edit: pretty much this:

Halloween Jack posted:

Marx didn't say that enough immiseration produces revolution, though. Simply being more and more miserable doesn't clarify or crystallize anything. Immiseration guarantees unrest, but not revolution.

I think Marx underestimated the ability of imperial powers to keep the machine running by conquering new territories and new markets. He also couldn't predict how telecommunications gave the ruling class the power to surveil and propagandize the masses closely and constantly. That was his biggest failing, and by failing I mean the inability to perfectly envision and predict every meaningful event in the future.

MLSM has issued a correction as of 20:04 on Nov 16, 2022

The Voice of Labor
Apr 8, 2020

Halloween Jack posted:

He also couldn't predict how telecommunications gave the ruling class the power to surveil and propagandize the masses closely and constantly. That was his biggest failing, and by failing I mean the inability to perfectly envision and predict every meaningful event in the future.

he drew a really clear link between increased efficiency in communication, rail lines and telegraph, and increased effeciency in production. he nailed that telecom would make goods cheaper and shorten the hours of work neccessary to reproduce labor, though he lacked the data points to make a formula out of it. but he definitely laid out what its benefits are and how those benefits could placate labor.

why is the frame in this thread that marxism somehow failed or is wrong? 50% of the world was communist within living memory, latin america's gonna be red p' soon, china's the most powerful country on the planet and vietnam and cuba have proven themselves invincible against overwhelming odds.

communism is down one game in a best of seven championship run and all of capitalism's star players are on injured reserve

Son of Thunderbeast
Sep 21, 2002

The Voice of Labor posted:

communism is down one game in a best of seven championship run and all of capitalism's star players are on injured reserve

I think it's tempting and easy to fall into despair because capitalism's injured star players are doing their best to pour gas around the arena and light a match

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Zodium
Jun 19, 2004

The Voice of Labor posted:

why is the frame in this thread that marxism somehow failed or is wrong? 50% of the world was communist within living memory, latin america's gonna be red p' soon, china's the most powerful country on the planet and vietnam and cuba have proven themselves invincible against overwhelming odds.

I don't have the wherewithal to respond properly today, but just to be clear, I wasn't trying to set that frame at all, I was only talking about the western marxism I have been exposed to and my personal struggle to make predictions with it. :3:

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