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What is the most powerful flying bug? This poll is closed. |
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| 🦋 |
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15 | 3.71% |
| 🦇 |
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115 | 28.47% |
| 🪰 |
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12 | 2.97% |
| 🐦 |
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67 | 16.58% |
| dragonfly |
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94 | 23.27% |
| 🦟 |
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14 | 3.47% |
| 🐝 |
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87 | 21.53% |
| Total: | 404 votes | ||
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AreWeDrunkYet posted:or just as easily, if there was no invasion in february if we're throwing around alternate timelines if the Minsk II accords had been observed... if there wasn't a crackdown on separatists if the LPR / DNR hadn't seceded... if the Euromaidan coup hadn't been instigated... ... ... ... if Napoleon had triumphed at Borodino... ... if the Treaty of Westphalia hadn't been signed... ... if that fish hadn't stepped out of the water...
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Nov 17, 2022 04:50
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Morbus posted:I agree 100%. Even without the outright nazis, I think recent counteroffensives have created a feedback loop of enthusiasm that makes backing down politically untenable. I don't really know when poo poo will hit the fan but I think Russia's behavior will radically change when things shift from "Lost Cause SMO" to "Defending Crimea". Yeah I still think Russia giving up Crimea is insane talk and Ukraine getting the idea that they have a real shot at it is dangerous as hell...which makes it particularly bad that Zelensky's in a position where he may not be able to give up on that goal without something catastrophic happening. Backing off the idea of reclaiming it militarily is something the West seems to recognize needs to happen (if nothing else to provide cover for Zelensky if it comes to a point where he might need it), but for every statement that inches toward that you get a few more saying it's up to the Ukrainians when and how they should negotiate, even though they obviously can't do anything without Western support.
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Nov 17, 2022 04:51
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https://twitter.com/RepMTG/status/1592895092791996416
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Nov 17, 2022 04:57
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Frosted Flake posted:worst case Russia mobilizing on a large scale in February might have gotten Minsk II signed. Tbh I thought this was gonna be the plan, with the initial mobilization for "exercises" being a prelude. Then they just went leeroy jenkins with <200k people during mud season and welp. Even then, I thought "well maybe they know something we don't". Turns out they did, it was just all bullshit.
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Nov 17, 2022 04:58
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Dr Kool-AIDS posted:Yeah I still think Russia giving up Crimea is insane talk and Ukraine getting the idea that they have a real shot at it is dangerous as hell...which makes it particularly bad that Zelensky's in a position where he may not be able to give up on that goal without something catastrophic happening. Backing off the idea of reclaiming it militarily is something the West seems to recognize needs to happen (if nothing else to provide cover for Zelensky if it comes to a point where he might need it), but for every statement that inches toward that you get a few more saying it's up to the Ukrainians when and how they should negotiate, even though they obviously can't do anything without Western support. Keep in mind Zelenskyy's stated negotiating position up until a few weeks ago, as repeatedly reported on, was he wouldn't even negotiate with Russia unless Putin was no longer in charge (subtext coup or assassination). Ukraine doesn't have a negotiating position, stuff like "we're taking back Crimea" is what they really want, and the level of western support they're getting just pushes them into it more. This is their once in history chance to push for as much as they can get, they have nearly unlimited backing, and their population is fully committed. It's pretty much up to western backers to pull support or Russia to change its strategy because Ukraine's not bluffing and they're pushing for whatever they can get.
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Nov 17, 2022 05:00
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Orcish tactics are defeated by mud.
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Nov 17, 2022 05:02
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Throatwarbler posted:https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1592856835262144512 too bad I wasn't present. I could have deflected that shmel rocket
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Nov 17, 2022 05:04
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Nov 17, 2022 05:06
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AreWeDrunkYet posted:or just as easily, if there was no invasion in february if we're throwing around alternate timelines When would you prefer the invasion to happen then?
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Nov 17, 2022 05:13
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Lostconfused posted:When would you prefer the invasion to happen then? preferably never if the desired outcome is minimizing people dying!
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Nov 17, 2022 05:14
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AreWeDrunkYet posted:preferably never if the preferred outcome is minimizing people dying! But we're still fine with at least some people dying then?
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Nov 17, 2022 05:16
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AreWeDrunkYet posted:preferably never if the desired outcome is minimizing people dying! As long as the only deaths are Jews, Roma, and people suspected or accused of being such i guess, since numbers are the only thing that matter
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Nov 17, 2022 05:20
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Tankie eugenics
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Nov 17, 2022 05:24
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Nonsense posted:Orcish tactics are defeated by mud. arent uruk hai like born in vats of mud or something if the orcs hd deployed their upgraded troops this would have been over alas, the oligarchs stole all of the uruk hai birthing vats
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Nov 17, 2022 05:49
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this is the stupidest loving war
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Nov 17, 2022 06:05
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Wheeee posted:this is the stupidest loving war oh... when did you enter the fray?
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Nov 17, 2022 06:08
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Wheeee posted:this is the stupidest loving war Look up the emu war.
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Nov 17, 2022 06:08
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8. To see victory only when it is within the ken of the common herd is not the acme of excellence. 9. Neither is it the acme of excellence if you fight and conquer and the whole Empire says, "Well done!" 10. To lift an autumn hair is no sign of great strength; to see the sun and moon is no sign of sharp sight; to hear the noise of thunder is no sign of a quick ear. 11. What the ancients called a clever fighter is one who not only wins, but excels in winning with ease. 12. Hence his victories bring him neither reputation for wisdom nor credit for courage.
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Nov 17, 2022 06:12
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DancingShade posted:Look up the emu war. emu war didn’t melt the brains of half the western world
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Nov 17, 2022 06:16
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Lostconfused posted:8. To see victory only when it is within the ken of the common herd is not the acme of excellence. "Confront your soldiers with the deed itself; never let them know your design. When the outlook is bright, bring it before their eyes; but tell them nothing when the situation is gloomy."
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Nov 17, 2022 06:18
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Wheeee posted:emu war didn’t melt the brains of half the western world They were already in that state. "smart"phones give every clown a voice by design.
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Nov 17, 2022 06:21
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Nov 17, 2022 06:24
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DancingShade posted:Look up the emu war. yeah Nintendo just partnered with Denuvo to deploy DRM to its games to try and stop emulators but that's just going to piss everyone off
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Nov 17, 2022 06:43
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gradenko_2000 posted:yeah Nintendo just partnered with Denuvo to deploy DRM to its games to try and stop emulators but that's just going to piss everyone off wtf really?
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Nov 17, 2022 06:55
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Nov 17, 2022 07:10
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nintendo
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Nov 17, 2022 07:32
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500 good dogs posted:wtf really? if so stop the war until this is resolved, this is pretty important
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Nov 17, 2022 08:09
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Meow Tse-tung posted:if so stop the war until this is resolved, this is pretty important We need the 7th Doctor Who to walk into the middle of the battlefield shouting "stop I command it!" while waving his umbrella "there will be no battle here!". Then everyone stops.
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Nov 17, 2022 08:15
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DancingShade posted:We need the 7th Doctor Who to walk into the middle of the battlefield shouting "stop I command it!" while waving his umbrella "there will be no battle here!". Then everyone stops. 
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Nov 17, 2022 08:16
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lmfao
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Nov 17, 2022 08:25
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Russia not committing enough troops initially or at least earlier I think can probably be explained by a desire not to escalate too quickly. Their path to victory is not tank columns driving on Kiev, it's the west withdrawing support or the Ukrainian government collapsing financially despite that support. This constant missile and drone barrage is encouraging the west to send SAMs, which are pretty expensive generally. Now NASAMs can fire old air to air missiles, which keeps costs down but eventually those supplies will run out and if the supply of Shahed 136s stays steady then eventually the west will either be unable either physically to produce or financially pay for enough munitions to supply Ukraine. That's the nub as I see it, can Russia outproduce (and purchase) what the west is willing and able to put into this conflict? I don't think we will see further significant withdrawals like we have twice recently, they've stretched holding those positions out as long as possible or necessary and now look like they're settling in to prepared positions. DancingShade posted:Nah I'm pretty sure all of recorded history only goes back 20 years or so. History 2.
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Nov 17, 2022 08:46
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Ah yes, DRM on the Switch, a platform famous for having system resources to spare.
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Nov 17, 2022 09:10
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Weka posted:Russia not committing enough troops initially or at least earlier I think can probably be explained by a desire not to escalate too quickly. Their path to victory is not tank columns driving on Kiev, it's the west withdrawing support or the Ukrainian government collapsing financially despite that support. This constant missile and drone barrage is encouraging the west to send SAMs, which are pretty expensive generally. Now NASAMs can fire old air to air missiles, which keeps costs down but eventually those supplies will run out and if the supply of Shahed 136s stays steady then eventually the west will either be unable either physically to produce or financially pay for enough munitions to supply Ukraine. That's the nub as I see it, can Russia outproduce (and purchase) what the west is willing and able to put into this conflict? yeah, I think this is about right. iirc, there was also peace talks preceding the withdrawal from Kiev (that BoJo tanked) so it would have worked if Ukraine were actually the ones on the other side of the negotiating table rather than being a pawn that the US is perfectly happy to let suffer if it lets them bleed Russia. there's also the appearance to their partners/allies China, India, Turkey (?!?!) and unaligned countries of restraint
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Nov 17, 2022 09:40
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Frosted Flake posted:With the amount of weapons NATO gave out and to whom, they should be thanking their lucky stars the war spilled outside Ukraine’s border with this and not a downed airliner outside Hamburg or a TOW fired at a Synagogue in Brussels. Give it time.
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Nov 17, 2022 10:00
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Weka posted:Russia not committing enough troops initially or at least earlier I think can probably be explained by a desire not to escalate too quickly. Their path to victory is not tank columns driving on Kiev, it's the west withdrawing support or the Ukrainian government collapsing financially despite that support. This constant missile and drone barrage is encouraging the west to send SAMs, which are pretty expensive generally. Now NASAMs can fire old air to air missiles, which keeps costs down but eventually those supplies will run out and if the supply of Shahed 136s stays steady then eventually the west will either be unable either physically to produce or financially pay for enough munitions to supply Ukraine. That's the nub as I see it, can Russia outproduce (and purchase) what the west is willing and able to put into this conflict? Does this matter? Modern SAMs aren't really going to stop the drones. Honestly, that seems to be a large part of the missile drama. Zelensky was claiming 100% hit rates, so if they just had those NATO SAMs the attacks would stop. If your missiles land in random villages in Poland your air defense is probably not hitting 10/10 shots and even more SAMs won't change that. Which I guess would be pretty demotivating.
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Nov 17, 2022 10:01
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The SAMs are for defending against cruise missiles. The little drones probably can't even be targeted with them. Russia is using both, though I think they alternate with missiles in daytime and the drones at night.
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Nov 17, 2022 10:12
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speng31b posted:Keep in mind Zelenskyy's stated negotiating position up until a few weeks ago, as repeatedly reported on, was he wouldn't even negotiate with Russia unless Putin was no longer in charge (subtext coup or assassination). Ukraine doesn't have a negotiating position, stuff like "we're taking back Crimea" is what they really want, and the level of western support they're getting just pushes them into it more. I think this analysis is correct, and furthermore see no signs that western backers will pull support. So it's going to be up to Russia to either give up everything, unlikely, or change strategy to force Ukraine to change their aims. This is likely to bear a disastrous cost in lives, both Russian and Ukrainian, Ukrainian infrastructure, and could well destabilize Russian civil society. Difficult to predict what the effects on Russian civil society and politics would be. Also difficult to predict what the western backers' response to the fates of war changing would be. Early in the war, in the interest of preserving lives and preventing misery, I thought (and still stand by) that the best course of action was for the Ukrainian government to pursue a negotiated surrender getting something as close to a ratified Minsk II as they could. I think we have now reached the point where, by the same motivations and logic, the best course of action is for the Russian government to take the loss, end the SMO and retreat. The one difference I will note is that Ukraine's stated aims seem more maximalist and therefore less acceptable to the Russian government than even Putin's initial stated aims. Long story short, by far the most likely future involves more death, destruction and misery, with a number of chances of things spinning horrendously out of control.
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Nov 17, 2022 10:57
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Yeah, it looks like Russia is going to hunker down for the winter and see how things have developed by next year. I guess whether that's good sense comes down to whether you think Russia or Ukraine will be under the greater pressure come the spring.
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Nov 17, 2022 11:08
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russia retreated from a few regions, it's hardly an insurmountable setback while western economies and Ukraine's power infrastructure are collapsing.
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Nov 17, 2022 11:14
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| # ? May 25, 2024 21:59 |
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which lotr film are we up to? because that's what will happen next
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Nov 17, 2022 11:22
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