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I'm telling you right now that a tool that can copy code from the internet is not going to replace human programmers that write code to solve new problems. No matter how good it gets at copying the correct already-written code.
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Dec 5, 2022 04:40
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https://twitter.com/ZackKorman/status/1599317547509108736
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Dec 5, 2022 04:49
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Unlimited dumb people i.e. a computer? It's a snappy quote, but I'm not sure what unlimited bad programmers bring to a team (other than bugs) that isn't already provided by having a computer that will follow instructions far more reliably and much faster than any number of dumb people.
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Dec 5, 2022 05:12
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Jabor posted:I'm telling you right now that a tool that can copy code from the internet is not going to replace human programmers that write code to solve new problems. 
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Dec 5, 2022 05:28
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Jabor posted:I'm telling you right now that a tool that can copy code from the internet is not going to replace human programmers that write code to solve new problems. True, but there are a lot of programming tasks out there that aren’t about solving new problems. Like 50 years ago there was this standard corporate job where you had an inbox of papers, looked at each one, marked it or tallied it, and moved it to some outbox. That’s gone now. But there are programming jobs that look a lot like that but with more complicated tools. Like transforming protobufs into other protobufs. It’s not all novel work, and a lot of it was bound to be automated somehow someday, but that day is coming real soon.
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Dec 5, 2022 05:29
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LLSix posted:Unlimited dumb people i.e. a computer? I think you actually agree with the guy? It sounds like this might be a replacement for tools I've seen in the past where you would go through a highly structured process and it will write you a specific function or class, but this is more flexible and easier to use, but it will still require supervision and work to add the tough part in. E: One weird ramification to this is what could it do to the employment pipeline? This tool could easily be better than most interns I've hired.
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Dec 5, 2022 05:31
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LLSix posted:having a computer that will follow instructions far more reliably ChatGPT3 seems to reduce the time spent doing the latter, just as a junior (or "dumb") programmer might. It's not perfect, I can't just turn my brain off and blindly accept its output. But it might get me 80% of the way there very quickly. Case in point: I ran into https://text2iam.com/ today, which lets you type in human-readable descriptions of AWS IAM policies, and uses GPT3 to generate policies that map to that. One example from their page: "Allow full S3 access if user has used MFA within the last 30 mins". Writing that policy from scratch by hand would require a lot of thought and careful research. Using this system, I could get a policy quickly and then review it to see if it works as expected. It doesn't replace me or my knowledge, that's still essential. But it would save a lot of time.
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Dec 5, 2022 05:37
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^^^ yeah, that I could see uses for having it write up some boilerplate when you forget the exact syntax for something. Like "for a collection of customers, group them into buckets by their country and give me the average invoice price". But I don't think it's going to be a replacement for actually being able to vet the codes correctness and integrate it into a larger solution.
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Dec 5, 2022 05:40
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StumblyWumbly posted:E: One weird ramification to this is what could it do to the employment pipeline? This tool could easily be better than most interns I've hired. If cutting juniors in favour of GPT tools becomes widespread, then that'll lead to an employment crunch that is incredibly favourable to the job prospects of anyone who can credibly call themselves an intermediate or senior programmer.
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Dec 5, 2022 05:46
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But then where do we get the next generation of intermediate and senior programmers?
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Dec 5, 2022 05:58
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The AI will have improved by then
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Dec 5, 2022 06:00
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StumblyWumbly posted:I think you actually agree with the guy? It sounds like this might be a replacement for tools I've seen in the past where you would go through a highly structured process and it will write you a specific function or class, but this is more flexible and easier to use, but it will still require supervision and work to add the tough part in. there really have been multiple times when some new RAD thing or some new CASE thing comes up and the school pipeline fuckin implodes, whipsawing into the employment pipeline a half-decade after. of course the largest instance of this was the whole outsourcing brouhaha which isn't actually a tool but still there was already a great big secular decrease in technical skills in the youth from 0-config devices, excepting the eternal weirdoes
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Dec 5, 2022 06:04
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ultrafilter posted:But then where do we get the next generation of intermediate and senior programmers? In the short term? Probably from non-English-speaking countries where the highly-optimized-for-America AI doesn't understand the language as well and so there's still plenty of juniors going around. Longer-term, forward-looking big tech firms would keep running junior programs for the same reason they run intern programs now - it makes them the default choice of that person once they reach the stage of profitable employment.
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Dec 5, 2022 06:17
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Jabor posted:If cutting juniors in favour of GPT tools becomes widespread, then that'll lead to an employment crunch that is incredibly favourable to the job prospects of anyone who can credibly call themselves an intermediate or senior programmer. Welcome to today's episode of saying the obvious part out loud This industry is going to look very different in 10 years, unrecognizable in 15, especially the bottom 2/3rds of the workforce GPT is closed source (OpenAI as a name is loving dumb, they're anything but open) but we're one stable diffusion (or a leak, really) away from it being in the public space and having that built upon in perpetuity
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Dec 5, 2022 06:18
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i dont know what RAD and CASE are bob, you gotta define your acronyms man
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Dec 5, 2022 06:19
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Achmed Jones posted:i dont know what RAD and CASE are bob, you gotta define your acronyms man rapid application development, computer-assisted software engineering previous attempts of doing this sorta thing, which basically entailed gigantic piles of gently caress-poo poo macros and dog-poo poo proprietary programming languages but were credulously announced as The Thing That Lets Us Get Rid Of These Damnable Software People. direct descendants are low and no-code platforms, which of course fall flat on their face routinely to be honest, the gpt stuff is materially less lame bullcrap, but that's prolly gonna lead to a much more material whipsaw effect just like the outsourcing stuff did because it looked credible bob dobbs is dead fucked around with this message at 06:28 on Dec 5, 2022 |
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Dec 5, 2022 06:25
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got it, thanks!
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Dec 5, 2022 06:29
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Hadlock posted:Welcome to today's episode of saying the obvious part out loud in 70 years of programming, there is not a single year in which programming and the programming job market would've been recognizable to someone from 10 or 15 years before. 2010->2020, 2000->2010, 1990-2000, 1980->1990, 1970-1980, 1960-1970, 1950-1960, each a complete transformation so saying 'its gonna be completely different in 10 years' is actually a platitude, and the default way of things bob dobbs is dead fucked around with this message at 06:35 on Dec 5, 2022 |
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Dec 5, 2022 06:32
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bob dobbs is dead posted:so saying 'its gonna be completely different in 10 years' is actually a platitude, and the default way of things Fine by me I suspect the people sitting here today watching events unfold saying "how can I benefit from this" will in 10 years, be far better off, than those saying "you can't replace me!" It's really hard to pick a specific watershed moment in a long gray period like "who invented the first true AI?" but for the first time in my life I feel like I might live to see it
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Dec 5, 2022 06:51
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I assume by 'true ai' you mean an artificial general intelligence and that is a whole other kettle of fish. No matter how good artificial narrow intelligence gets, it will never actually understand what it's saying. To get a computer to actually understand? First we will need to understand what human consciousness is and we STILL don't understand that. I can see a future where ANIs are everywhere, doing lots of tasks for lots of people (they already are to an extent) but an AGI will take a huge breakthrough of some kind that a lot of experts aren't even sure it will ever happen let alone happen in our life time.ultrafilter posted:But then where do we get the next generation of intermediate and senior programmers? Automation taking the less skilled jobs in industries has happened several times over so we can look at them for an idea.
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Dec 5, 2022 09:49
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the only truly sober definition of AI is "poo poo we can't get computers to do yet". At one point, garbage collection was AI therefore, by basically the same process as how the halting process is impossible, we can't get computers to do AI. because as soon as we do it's not AI anymore
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Dec 5, 2022 09:56
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Vulture Culture posted:Call me a cynic, but the thing about AI-generated content is that in order to put people out of jobs, the results don't have to be right, they just have to look right. 'cynic' is just a mean way of saying 'pattern recognizer'
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Dec 5, 2022 11:41
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Something like that doesn't make less software jobs, it makes more. Our world becomes even more tightly coupled to software, creating even deeper dependencies than we have today.
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Dec 5, 2022 15:12
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Hey thanks for volunteering to inner source for this critically important, high priority project. We just don't have capacity for it, unfortunately, and now you're in charge of getting it done because you're such a great engineer! We'll make sure to give you all the support you need by ignoring your PRs, emails, and Slack pings until you escalate it to the engineering Director, and then we'll complain to the Director about how you are not proactively unblocking yourself by magically knowing how our undocumented components work even though you've never seen them before. We'll also make sure to help you out by not having any knowledge transfer meetings and by linking you to long Confluence pages that don't answer your questions but the title makes it sound like it reasonably might. Thanks so much for your help and FYI we'll all be OOO for the holidays! Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
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Dec 5, 2022 17:21
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bob dobbs is dead posted:
I worked for about a year and a half at a consulting company that specialized in working with companies that built 80% of their mission critical systems in these no code platforms and just needed a little bit of tweaking to get the other 20%. The 20% stretched out into a horrible slog every time. Without fail, we had to do some pretty complicated things in a proprietary environment that didn't allow for it and had no tools or community to help you. It definitely would have been easier to do it in a real framework from the beginning rather than try to find a shortcut and paint yourself into a corner.
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Dec 5, 2022 17:55
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https://twitter.com/jjvincent/status/1599743434360639489 Maybe we're not all that endangered just yet.
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Dec 5, 2022 17:58
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I’m not convinced that AI will change much. Firstly, I can’t imagine two disparate systems produced by AI to interface sensibly and without bugs/leaks/etc. Secondly, like basically all other AI it’s just informed derivation, it has no way to create anything wholly new. So it will never innovate. I can’t imagine AI taking over much in the games industry - I mean it would be nice to never have to implement a* ever again but even then I wouldn’t trust it. So much of my work has no real prior art or is bound by some specific performance constraint or locked to some un-googleable proprietary platform.
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Dec 5, 2022 17:59
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large sections of work-for-hire art is gonna eat poo poo and die tho, is the rub
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Dec 5, 2022 18:22
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Hadlock posted:GPT is closed source (OpenAI as a name is loving dumb, they're anything but open) but we're one stable diffusion (or a leak, really) away from it being in the public space and having that built upon in perpetuity Reminds me of this short story, in which brain uploading works and, as a consequence, virtualized people are automatically being created, worked to death, and deleted on a massive scale throughout the globe...largely because researchers early on lost legal control over their prototype and it leaked out into the public sphere.
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Dec 5, 2022 18:34
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bob dobbs is dead posted:large sections of work-for-hire art is gonna eat poo poo and die tho, is the rub  I'm a hobbiest photographer and that circle is mostly not 'too' worried, but certain sections will definitely slowly be chipped away at. The prime one being stock photography. Creating actual art still requires a human, but when you want some generic picture of a multicultural board room of people all smiling and one standing in front of a whiteboard, at the moment you go to shutterstock and buy it and some photographer gets 50 cents, soon enough you would just throw that in a prompt instead. Mega Comrade fucked around with this message at 18:38 on Dec 5, 2022 |
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Dec 5, 2022 18:35
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TooMuchAbstraction posted:Reminds me of this short story, in which brain uploading works and, as a consequence, virtualized people are automatically being created, worked to death, and deleted on a massive scale throughout the globe...largely because researchers early on lost legal control over their prototype and it leaked out into the public sphere. qntm is a goon. username qntm
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Dec 5, 2022 18:36
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Dec 5, 2022 18:37
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drat the AI has started to pull dad pranks.
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Dec 5, 2022 20:17
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ultrafilter posted:https://twitter.com/jjvincent/status/1599743434360639489 It's Stackoverflow, how would they know? I mean, the entire "Stack exchange" would only notice by volume and improved quality if anything? 
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Dec 5, 2022 22:49
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I hope the AI will answer my StackOverflow questions with THE PONY COMES copypasta
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Dec 5, 2022 23:49
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StumblyWumbly posted:I think you actually agree with the guy? It sounds like this might be a replacement for tools I've seen in the past where you would go through a highly structured process and it will write you a specific function or class, but this is more flexible and easier to use, but it will still require supervision and work to add the tough part in. Year 1: better than the interns Year 2 or 3: better than the juniors ... lifg posted:True, but there are a lot of programming tasks out there that aren’t about solving new problems. 90% of my work is we have a function here and we want to call it there. Or we have an API and we want to call it a bunch of times and store the results in this other place. Or take these protocol buffers, annotate them with data from those other protocol buffers, and call some combination of these 10 other APIs depending on what the merged protocol buffer looks like. 80% of the code ends up being automated tests to make sure things behave as expected under some input field being populated according to some edge case. How many of you designed and implemented an entirely new database system like innodb or bigtable vs dumped your data into one?
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Dec 6, 2022 00:41
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Hmm. Maybe these developments are concerning to the sort of people that have one year of programming experience ten times over and haven't progressed beyond that.
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Dec 6, 2022 00:52
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Bruh, ow
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Dec 6, 2022 01:08
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unlike all the blub programmers out there, i (as a 10x engineer) have nothing to worry about
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Dec 6, 2022 01:08
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oliveoil posted:Bruh, ow Holy poo poo something made it through
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