(Thread IKs:
fart simpson)
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crepeface posted:well duh, if we did things like a bad country it would have been bad I honestly would expect even more severe measures from China: they had a zero covid policy and also, by February 2022 how much of the population had booster vaccines in Western Australia? I would argue additional measures could bring down the death rate even lower especially since the Chinese had until recently the most aggressive control measures on earth and honestly, the outbreak is still relatively controlled even if it is growing. In addition, they may have time for a second round of boosters. Moreover, I looked into Western Australia and honestly their measures in 2022 seemed to be soft compared to China. It will still be tens of thousands but they can bring it down further than Western countries just by taking more extreme measures. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 10:00 on Dec 10, 2022 |
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Dec 10, 2022 09:54
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crepeface posted:well duh, if we did things like a bad country it would have been bad I think you're mostly right about WA being comparable to what China may experience but this part is a bit misleading. WA and every Australian state did maintain baseline disease control measures ... for like 1 month after opening and then with increasing apathy and non compliance enforcement ceased completely and there were zero mitigation measures since then until the present. Hopefully China would avoid doing the same.
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Dec 10, 2022 10:00
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Ardennes posted:I honestly would expect even more severe measures from China: they had a zero covid policy and also, by February 2022 how much of the population had booster vaccines in Western Australia? 60% had third boosters in feb 2022 in WA we'll see what measures they keep
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Dec 10, 2022 10:05
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fart simpson posted:this guy is ten trillion times cooler than all the horrible americans and euros i meet here in shenzhen, lol if you’re meeting other expats regularly your doing it wrong. e: awfulapp deserves its name really Zedhe Khoja has issued a correction as of 10:22 on Dec 10, 2022 |
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Dec 10, 2022 10:20
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crepeface posted:60% had third boosters in feb 2022 in WA Yes we'll see we'll see, but at the moment, it is far from open'em up. (Also, the Chinese are pressing boosters hard at the moment particularly among over 80 year olds.) Ardennes has issued a correction as of 10:26 on Dec 10, 2022 |
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Dec 10, 2022 10:23
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Zedhe Khoja posted:if you’re meeting other expats regularly your doing it wrong. im not going out of my way to. i'm not very connected in with the expat groups at all but it happens
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Dec 10, 2022 10:23
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Ardennes posted:Yes we'll see we'll see, but at the moment, it is far from open'em up. they better press fast quote:The country has achieved a 89.7 per cent vaccination rate and given about 56 per cent of its 1.41 billion population a booster dose, but only 61 per cent of those aged above 80 finishing their primary vaccination. https://www.theage.com.au/world/asia/two-years-later-china-says-xi-jinping-received-local-covid-vaccine-20220724-p5b43f.html] maybe it's bullshit, but that's the only figure i've seen.
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Dec 10, 2022 11:30
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https://twitter.com/xhnews/status/1601521820158824451?s=46&t=4NUil26pHOaI1ewIhh_kQg
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Dec 10, 2022 12:29
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americans shouldn't post about covid in the asia/oceania thread because they aren't capable of nuance or understanding that things can work differently in different countries. the pattern for countries that managed to vaccinate before it broke through restrictions is pretty clear: you can mitigate a high level of serious illness and deaths during the initial wave, until things settle into an uncomfortable but lower "business as usual" level (determined by remaining public health measures). 
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Dec 10, 2022 13:30
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exmarx posted:americans shouldn't post about covid in the asia/oceania thread because they aren't capable of nuance or understanding that things can work differently in different countries. here’s my nuance. picking different shades of orange and brown for 5/7 of a chart’s entries is terrible data visualization
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Dec 10, 2022 13:41
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Raskolnikov38 posted:here’s my nuance. picking different shades of orange and brown for 5/7 of a chart’s entries is terrible data visualization yep
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Dec 10, 2022 13:49
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Does anyone remember what the first international summit Xi went to was? The Central Asia trip in September? Guess in hindsight you could take that as a clear indication that a change of policy was coming.ModernMajorGeneral posted:I think you're mostly right about WA being comparable to what China may experience but this part is a bit misleading. WA and every Australian state did maintain baseline disease control measures ... for like 1 month after opening and then with increasing apathy and non compliance enforcement ceased completely and there were zero mitigation measures since then until the present. Hopefully China would avoid doing the same. They seem to be dismantling their testing regime at a rapid pace at least so I'm not optimistic. I guess the internal logic of giving up on the most effective mitigation measures just pulls you into a just-the-flu stance. Otherwise you'd be looking at a massive policy failure and you can't have that. Ardennes posted:90% of the Chinese population is vaccinated and 70% have boosters, also the number of deaths has been relatively limited thus far. What do you mean? Of course the number of deaths have been limited so far, it was still broadly controlled. But non of any of this is magic. The big thing that worked for China were the lockdowns and quarantine centers. Once they are gone contact tracing goes too and you're more or less at uncontrolled spread. Not sure what new treatments you mean, but we seem to be out of MABS that work and China is certainly not going to import hundreds of million of courses of the Pfizer pill. Did they ever get around to adapting their domestic vaccines to any more recent spike protein than the Wild Type? Seems to have helped a lot in Cuba.
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Dec 10, 2022 14:01
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lots of cope coming from the thread. it doesn’t matter that China has high vaccination rates. once you start letting highly infectious omicrom’s progeny rip through your population repeatedly, you’re setting your healthcare system up for failure. in a year or two we’ll start to see massive amounts of other virus infections, as we are seeing in the west, as the population’s immune systems become weakened from repeated covid infections. heart failure and long covid will abound. the vaccines will not hold as the virus evolves rapidly. most Chinese wear lovely surgicals which certainly help a bit, but at the same time it’s a more densely populated country. ppl should rightfully be very concerned about what is about to happen
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Dec 10, 2022 14:07
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nigel thornberry posted:lots of cope coming from the thread. it doesn’t matter that China has high vaccination rates. once you start letting highly infectious omicrom’s progeny rip through your population repeatedly, you’re setting your healthcare system up for failure. we can't easily generalize from the west to china. if maintained, universal masking is certainly going to do a lot to keep Re < 1 in general society, even if the ~60-70% transmissibility reduction from two-way surgical masks may not prevent omicron infection at ChiseCon. pandemics are behavioral, not virological.
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Dec 10, 2022 14:17
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Zodium posted:pandemics are behavioral, not virological. that’s a pretty strong absolute statement. pandemics are certainly somewhat virological, no? sure it may not go down the same exact way as the west, but they’ll get to the same place eventually if the spread becomes uncontrolled in densely populated areas where the only mitigation strategy is vaccines and surgicals. your surgical is not saving you forever if you have to take the train to work everyday
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Dec 10, 2022 14:31
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exmarx posted:americans shouldn't post about covid in the asia/oceania thread because they aren't capable of nuance or understanding that things can work differently in different countries. South Korea's numbers are fucky, at least. Those numbers only count people within that 1-2 week window of being counted as severe. http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20220518000839 quote:They said Moon officials had already made it harder for patients to continue treatment by limiting the length of the hospital stay to the minimum isolation time required by the policy, which was gradually shortened from two weeks to one.
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Dec 10, 2022 14:34
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nigel thornberry posted:that’s a pretty strong absolute statement. pandemics are certainly somewhat virological, no? sure it may not go down the same exact way as the west, but they’ll get to the same place eventually if the spread becomes uncontrolled in densely populated areas where the only mitigation strategy is vaccines and surgicals. your surgical is not saving you forever if you have to take the train to work everyday So what's the end game for a country who has done everything it can to mitigate the spread but western countries are dead set on killing as many people as possible? Completely cut ties to the west?
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Dec 10, 2022 14:40
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Cpt_Obvious posted:So what's the end game for a country who has done everything it can to mitigate the spread but western countries are dead set on killing as many people as possible? Completely cut ties to the west? Hell yeah autarchy lets gooooooooo
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Dec 10, 2022 14:41
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nigel thornberry posted:that’s a pretty strong absolute statement. pandemics are certainly somewhat virological, no? sure it may not go down the same exact way as the west, but they’ll get to the same place eventually if the spread becomes uncontrolled in densely populated areas where the only mitigation strategy is vaccines and surgicals. your surgical is not saving you forever if you have to take the train to work everyday for 20 years, people like yaneer bar-yam have been heralding, with several near misses along the way, a nasty respiratory pandemic if so-and-so preventive measures were not taken, which they weren't. the emergence of a pandemic for which a niche exists is a white swan, i.e., it's statistically inevitable, and all you can do is close the niche--behaviorally, that is, politically. covid emerged because of how Capital has structured society. that's behavioral, not virological. it became endemic in the west because it evolved to spread along vectors that must remain open for Capital to maintain its stability. that, too, is behavioral, not virological. China can still fail, of course, but it isn't a foregone conclusion.
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Dec 10, 2022 14:42
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Why is China's elderly vaccination rate so low anyways? Is it just "old people are loving stupid in all countries" or what? I kinda expected a high rate of vaccination across all demographics in a country that actually took covid seriously.
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Dec 10, 2022 14:46
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Cpt_Obvious posted:So what's the end game for a country who has done everything it can to mitigate the spread but western countries are dead set on killing as many people as possible? Completely cut ties to the west? stay the course and maintain covid zero or something similar there to. I think it’s possible to reform some of its dumber aspects of it but largely be keep it in place. it provided tons of upside whereas letting it rip is all downside. I guess it is too pessimistic say it’ll be just as bad as the west where zero NPIs are even considered. but so far the pessimists have been proven right at every turn of this pandemic. goons are almost always wrong, but the exception is the cspam covid thread which has almost always been correct
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Dec 10, 2022 14:46
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PiratePrentice posted:Why is China's elderly vaccination rate so low anyways? Is it just "old people are loving stupid in all countries" or what? I kinda expected a high rate of vaccination across all demographics in a country that actually took covid seriously. Stopping or slowing a pandemic via NPIs counterintuitively hinders vaccination rates from people thinking that it isn't as necessary But also yes old people being loving stupid everywhere also applies
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Dec 10, 2022 14:49
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the pessimists were wrong about monkeypox, wrong about covid evolving to bind ace2 receptors better than our best antibodies, wrong about lots of things. goons just have very selective memories and love to use heuristics instead of real analysis.
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Dec 10, 2022 14:51
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What's the general attitude toward like scientific acceptace in China anyways? They maintain parallel traditional and real medical systems, right? Is that for old people and young people respectively or does the TCM stuff have a lot of representation in younger generations too?
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Dec 10, 2022 14:52
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Cpt_Obvious posted:So what's the end game for a country who has done everything it can to mitigate the spread but western countries are dead set on killing as many people as possible? Completely cut ties to the west? At least they would have had to centralize the international quarantine facilities and not let the gently caress-ups in Shanghai or Urumqui run them. PiratePrentice posted:Why is China's elderly vaccination rate so low anyways? Is it just "old people are loving stupid in all countries" or what? I kinda expected a high rate of vaccination across all demographics in a country that actually took covid seriously. Pretty sure the emphasis was to vaccinate the people who are most likely to come into contact with the virus.
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Dec 10, 2022 14:56
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Zodium posted:the pessimists were wrong about monkeypox, wrong about covid evolving to bind ace2 receptors better than our best antibodies, wrong about lots of things. goons just have very selective memories and love to use heuristics instead of real analysis. yeah I said “almost always”. obviously no one is correct all the time. I get your gimmick is pretentiousness dressed up in pseudo intellectual language, but at least learn to read
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Dec 10, 2022 15:03
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being right about half the illnesses you make predictions about isn't traditionally considered "almost always correct." it's about how often you'd expect a pessimistic heuristic to be right.
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Dec 10, 2022 15:06
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genericnick posted:Pretty sure the emphasis was to vaccinate the people who are most likely to come into contact with the virus. I can't say I've been to China or anything but I kinda assume that old people came into contact with young people before the pandemic. Even if you're not expecting to quit zero-covid for two or more years I feel like you should really have a plan for the longer term, or even one for if your social structure doesn't tolerate stasis for that long.
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Dec 10, 2022 15:10
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Zodium posted:being right about half the illnesses you make predictions about isn't traditionally considered "almost always correct." it's about how often you'd expect a pessimistic heuristic to be right. fine cspam covid thread is correct a plurality of the time. that’s more than can be said if most goons. is my language sufficiently correct for your liking yet? please expound you intellectual titans of the boards
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Dec 10, 2022 15:11
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On US hospital beds, the number has been falling for decades lol
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Dec 10, 2022 15:14
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nigel thornberry posted:fine cspam covid thread is correct a plurality of the time. that’s more than can be said if most goons. is my language sufficiently correct for your liking yet? please expound you intellectual titans of the boards i'll allow it.
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Dec 10, 2022 15:15
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PiratePrentice posted:I can't say I've been to China or anything but I kinda assume that old people came into contact with young people before the pandemic. Even if you're not expecting to quit zero-covid for two or more years I feel like you should really have a plan for the longer term, or even one for if your social structure doesn't tolerate stasis for that long. Not trying to say it's a good idea, but if the typical outbreak starts with a failure of the quarantine procedures in a tier 1 city where surveillance testing is enforced and close contacts are put into isolation you'd expect to catch it before it jumps from the working age population to the elderly.
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Dec 10, 2022 15:23
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PiratePrentice posted:Why is China's elderly vaccination rate so low anyways? Is it just "old people are loving stupid in all countries" or what? I kinda expected a high rate of vaccination across all demographics in a country that actually took covid seriously. The old people stupid is a big part of it. The compound I lived in during the lockdown was mostly elderly folks, and the WeChat group was absolutely rammed with olds posting poo poo about drinking certain herbal teas, taking the Lianhua capsules, or other weird measures would surely protect or even cure you of COVID.
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Dec 10, 2022 16:37
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Hedenius posted:https://twitter.com/xhnews/status/1601521820158824451?s=46&t=4NUil26pHOaI1ewIhh_kQg china xinhua news is right
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Dec 10, 2022 16:57
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Raskolnikov38 posted:here’s my nuance. picking different shades of orange and brown for 5/7 of a chart’s entries is terrible data visualization
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Dec 10, 2022 17:17
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yeah but if china so smart why astronaut wear mask on ISS??? btw I get my china news from reddit
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Dec 10, 2022 17:37
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Have you watched any space horror movie? It will stop The Thing.
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Dec 10, 2022 17:46
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nigel thornberry posted:stay the course and maintain covid zero or something similar there to. I think it’s possible to reform some of its dumber aspects of it but largely be keep it in place. it provided tons of upside whereas letting it rip is all downside. The issue was the Chinese were finding that the outbreaks were getting harder to control as the willingness for the public to put up with them waned and now you have multiple outbreaks across various provinces. They would have to have Shanghai level lockdown across significant portions of the country at this point and that isn't economcially fesible. Also, Chinese control measures are quite clearly stronger than the West, and you still have high vaccination which is going to soften the blow. genericnick posted:They seem to be dismantling their testing regime at a rapid pace at least so I'm not optimistic. I guess the internal logic of giving up on the most effective mitigation measures just pulls you into a just-the-flu stance. Otherwise you'd be looking at a massive policy failure and you can't have that. It still isn't going to be an uncontrolled spread as others have said, I doubt masking and distancing are going away. In addition, I am sure there may be measures to insulate the elderly and people with weakened immunity. Ending the lockdowns means it will spread but that very much isn't the same thing as saying it will spread like wildfire. crepeface posted:they better press fast That story is from July Also, the Chinese already have a new booster in the works, it is still under stage 3 trials in China but Indonesia has already given it emergency authorization. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 19:14 on Dec 10, 2022 |
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Dec 10, 2022 18:58
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nigel thornberry posted:the exception is the cspam covid thread which has almost always been correct 
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Dec 10, 2022 19:19
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Ardennes posted:The issue was the Chinese were finding that the outbreaks were getting harder to control as the willingness for the public to put up with them waned and now you have multiple outbreaks across various provinces. They would have to have Shanghai level lockdown across significant portions of the country at this point and that isn't economcially fesible. yeah but opening up and making people work with covid during outbreaks isn't economically positive either as we've seen from economies in the West, and since they're dismantling mandatory and free testing it is going to spike transmission insanely high
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Dec 10, 2022 19:21
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