BlindSite posted:

Stand within ten yard of tua and say that and not online and watch what happens fucker.

kiimo posted:

Yeah you gently caress around and you find out *rifles ball to your feet*

Eifert Posting posted:

Assuming anything close to a normal internal free agency this year for the Bengals They really don't have any screaming needs and can go pure BPA outside of quarterback.

Feels good man.

BlindSite posted:

Has your line gotten better this year? only seen one bengals game this season.

Amy Pole Her posted:

Phew great class to have... *checks Dolphins picks*
poo poo

But at least there's a lot of starter worthy draftable guys that play ...*checks Dolphins needs*
poo poo

TheGreyGhost posted:

I haven’t watched him in a charting/scouting sense much from this past season, but I think you’re more or less correct. I worry about him in a pocket when coverage is good still, but there’s no reason in my mind he couldn’t do the current Perkins/Baker/Garropollo type thing if it’s for real. Gonna add him to my queue after some other positions this year.

KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:

I am very interested in your thoughts on Bo, having watched him all year.

Amy Pole Her posted:

That is true. Currently living in the doomsday of thinking about a second round OT or a 3rd round CB

Chucktesla posted:

I want Justin Herbert to have a tight end he plays with for at least twelve years and catch a bunch of passes, are there a couple guys in this draft who qualify

Ornery and Hornery posted:

THEGREYGHOST DONATION ALARM

WWE Announcer Voice: THE CHALLENGE IS HERE for TheGreyGhost, TFFs favorite draftnik.

I, Ornery and Hornery, am putting DOLLARS on the line for this event. IF TheGreyGhost meets the conditions list below, I will donate $30 dollars to an animal charity or cause. If TGG meets the stretch goal, then I will up the ante to $60!!! There is no deadline because TGG is great and probably busy with the holidays and stuff

INITIAL GOAL Conditions to be met for QUARTERBACK[ PROSPECT rankings! Analysis (as prospects) includes all top QB prospects for the last 5 years (inclusive of the 2017 draft).

• 1) overall ordinal ranking among all the above qbs (please include some scoring too like x/10 or x/100)
  
• 2) arm strength
  
• 3) speed of getting the ball out,
  
• 4) accuracy, AND
  
• 5) what type of snake best represents that qb (NOTE: the snake canNOT be a venomous snake. that's dumb)

STRETCH GOAL conditions to be met for {EDGE / DT PASS RUSHER} rankings! Analysis (as prospects) includes the top 3 {EDGE / DT PASS RUSHER} prospects for each of the last 5 drafts (inclusive of the 2017 draft).

• 1) overall ordinal ranking among all the above qbs (please include some scoring too like x/10 or x/100)
  
• 2) # of pass rush moves

IF other goons want to see this heady analysis, you can join in the fun by posting a donation pledge itt.

THAT'S IT! Be there or be square...

FizFashizzle posted:

Darnell Washington is a mutant who’s going to murder the combine.

TheGreyGhost posted:

Ironically, I’ve gone back and re-read some of my prior year write ups for a bit of self-scouting. One question, what do we want to draw the line on for “top” on QBs? Anyone I went longform (200+ ish) on?

I’ll probably jump on this in a summary because it actually plays a bit with a concept I had for creating a glossary on this.

Rectal Placenta posted:

It's like mock drafts are used as a catalyst for discussion in the part of the off-season with little other interesting news or something

wandler20 posted:

Bring me every mock draft no matter how wildly inaccurate it may be.

TheGreyGhost posted:

Borsche69 posted:

walterfootball time

Borsche69 posted:

walterfootball time

TheGreyGhost posted:

if I ever got good enough at it, an AI that could write Walter Football scouting blurbs couldn’t be that hard to do, assuming you just fed it the usual racist AI data.

TheGreyGhost posted:

Here comes the single lengthiest post I have ever made here. Some early house rules

- View the objective grades along the lines of a relative scale score. 10 overall isn’t happening there. That’s averaging the following grades out of 10 (Air; Velocity; Ball Placement; Ball Timing; Mechanics; Movement Ability; Processing/Recognition), so I would call anything above like 6.5 a first-round grade there and anything above 7 as top-20 grade.
- The subjective score is essentially how I would’ve scored that prospect holistically without creating a definitive rubric. It’s how I’m going to order these guys. Anything 8 or above is first round grade.

Format for section (Subjective/Objective/Dog score) - Snake

Trevor Lawrence (9.5; 7.93; 7) - Cleanest or least objectionable prospect in 6 years. Will go as far as his footwork takes him. The Burmese Python where he is broadly adaptable to Florida and immediately became a mascot for part of Florida.

Kyler Murray (9; 7.50; 6.5) - Undersized but similarly unobjectionable to Lawrence. The Borneo Blood Python for being active mainly at night or when trying to escape.

Justin Fields (9; 7.43; 7.5) - The guy overshadowed by Lawrence but who was essentially just as capable. The Red Tailed Boa who gets overshadowed by the Burmese Python but otherwise would get the headlines for invading a habitat.

Joe Burrow (9; 7.43; 10) - The anti-tools guy who just gets the ball where it’s supposed to be. California Mountain Kingsnake where he’s incredibly dangerous to the other snakes because he can take hits and outlast them.

CJ Stroud (8.5; 7.14; 4) - Elite pocket guy in rhythm who has weird vibes at times and sometimes misses obvious threats. The Coachwhip Snake—known for constricting blood flow to improve eyesight when threatened but otherwise coasting in life.

Bryce Young (8.5; 7.29; 8) - Scrambling, lovable quarterback who everyone wants in a nice home but is frequently an escape artist—the Corn Snake.

Josh Rosen (8.5; 7.00; 2) - My biggest overrate of all time. Looked cool but died immediately in captivity, overestimated capabilities by everyone—a wild caught Ball Python.

Sam Darnold (8.5; 6.79; 5) - Excellent physical talent that was trained poorly to understand what it was doing and needed more space to operate than was received. Bad feeding response that creates problems by being too eager—Olive Python.

Baker Mayfield (8.5; 6.79; 9) - Fell apart when it turns out you can’t just grit your way through every injury or not work on your mechanics/reads and have it work out, despite having enough arm to make it possible. Hisses loudly and headbutts things—Black-headed python.

Lamar Jackson (8.5; 7.14; 9.5) - Elite physical talent actually made us underestimate just how polished he was in the passing game. Tries to outrun everything, fast, quite active, known for making GBS threads themselves when finally grabbed—The Southern Black Racer

Tua Tagavailoa (8.5; 6.79; 6) - Physically limited but showed promise in knowing what he needed to do. A Bolivian anaconda—noted for having a journal article about its corpse being played with by dolphins (see Wikipedia).

Dwayne Haskins (8.5; 6.79; 6) - Looks cool but slow and easily contained, treated like a very safe prospect because it’s a name brand. Rosy Boa Constrictor

Deshaun Watson (8; 6.93; 7.5) - Turned out to be more physically capable than expected with decent processing power. Invasive species that hurts an environment yet also doesn’t have a flashy name, African Rock Python

Trey Lance (8; 6.93; 7) - Not from the area everyone thinks of but still very capable and aggressive if you mess with it. The Caspian Whipsnake

Patrick Mahomes (8; 7.07; 9) - Ability, size, and temperament to beat anything. Unknown exactly how big he can get but already at the apex. Green Anaconda.

Zach Wilson (8; 6.93; 6.5) - Capable in its environment but falls apart anywhere else despite being billed as an Apex Predator—Eastern Indigo Snake

Will Levis (8; 7.0; 7) - Might die to mistaken identity in Appalachia, Eastern Milksnake

Mac Jones (7.5; 6.5; 3) - Pretends to be a rattlesnake by shaking an empty tail, is not a rattlesnake. Bullsnake.

Desmond Ridder (7.5; 6.79; 5) - Appeared dead in big moments but shows competence and exertion against lesser competition. Eastern Hognose

Justin Herbert (7.5; 6.57; 2) - Physically massive talent that is smart and adapts over time but gets frequently mislabeled as just another python because of size and initial overeagerness—the Reticulated Python.

Anthony Richardson (7.5; 6.57; 6.5) - Absolute hulk with exactly one speed and no nuance. King Snake

Josh Allen (7.5; 6.29; 5) - Get ignored in favor of its bigger relative but just as terrifying and maybe more unpredictable. Yellow Anaconda.

Matt Corral (7.5; 6.43; 8) - Looks threatening on rep but could get stepped on by anyone competent enough to call his bluff. Scarlet Kingsnake.

Kenny Pickett (7.5; 6.36; 7.5) - Suddenly realized to be big and dangerous after getting lumped in with a broader group of anonymous dudes for years. The Australian Scrub Python

Daniel Jones (7.5; 6.29; 3.5) - Useful in a vacuum but not as effective as bigger prospects, as easy to move on from as smaller ones, or as effective as recent exotic prospects. Known for having a musk when threatened that simulates poison. Eastern rat snake.

Malik Willis (7.5; 6; 5) - Unique looking prospect who we know nothing about because of recent discovery and sample size in anything public or relevant being nothing. Could be cool or a complete hoax. Iridescent Shieldtail.

Mitchell Trubisky (7.5; 6.07; 3) - Had every tool needed but was far far too young to ever have a chance of being actually dangerous as opposed to the appearance of dangerous. Juvenile Black Rat Snake.

Brad Kaaya (7.5; 6.21; 2) - Survived on the volume of people around him and got overrated by everyone for stuff that anyone could’ve done. Physically sought. Eastern Green water snake.

Deshone Kizer (7.5; 6.15; 4.5) - Curious, nimble prospect that sees things but isn’t capable of finishing any type of squeeze out in favor of just kind of hanging around. Eastern Racer.

Jaren Hall (7.0; 6.36; 6.5) - Has to hide from predators frequently gets owned by anything that creates problems in its habitat. Plays bigger than it is. Smooth Green Snake

Kellen Mond (7.0; 6.36; 5) - Manages a ground game well to hide from the entirety of its habitat burning down around it. Ends up chilling in the same place as some gophers for a while. Louisiana Pinesnake.

Jordan Love (7.0; 6.00; 5) - Waits around in holes for the environment to get less bad despite being well equipped for a hardened high desert, essentially just becomes a hiding subsistence farmer. Sonoran Gopher Snake.

Drew Lock (7; 6.07; 5) - Large and shiny. Allowed to keep going because of some nebulous idea that it could be useful against some specific predator. Texas Indigo Snake

Jalen Hurts (7; 6.07; 8) - Stout, constant debate about if it’s capable of being actually dangerous or not despite some evidence it has been. Western Hognose

Davis Mills (7; 6.07; 1) - Looks cool but basically is known for nothing other than being from a spot in California. The California Red-Sided Garter Snake.

Hendon Hooker (7; 5.93; 7) - Debate over how old he is being relevant when the actual issue is just that he’s not all the actual issue here is that he’s common and not that interesting. Great Basin Gophersnake

Mason Rudolph (7; 5.43; 3) - Easily angered and lashes out. Assumed to come from a warmer, more interesting place than he does. Cape Gopher Snake

Cam Ward (6.5; 6.0; 7.5) - Raw, runs into trouble frequently and spent a lot of time in a habitat that does not translate to much of anything. Plain-bellied Watersnake.

Bailey Zappe (6.5; 5.93; 5.5) - No real predators where it’s from, ended up getting some with where it ended up. Undersized. Southern Bahamas Boa

Kyle Trask (6.5; 6; 5) - Does basically one unique thing well in one aquatic environment. Turns to poo poo if even the water temperature is off. Queen Snake

Carson Strong (6.5; 5.14; 2) - Does the easy thing of feasting on the defenseless. From the mountains. Oddly blunt. Gets hurt trying to do this constantly. Southern Rubber Boa

Sam Howell (6.5; 6.07; 6) - insanely bad at killing things to the point where evolution has given two options to do and neither really works beyond small prey. Needs to decide what it does. Western terrestrial garter snake.

Will Grier (6.5; 5.79; 6.5) - Fairly agreeable. Could survive in a cave. Climbs trees. Children’s Python

Chad Kelly (6.5; 5.79; 9.5) - Portrayed as a king because of one specific game and kind of looking the part. Pretender. Crowned False Boa.

Jacob Eason (6.5; 5.64; 2.5) - insanely cool looking but makes like 1-2 moves a month and otherwise a complete non factor. Emerald Tree Boa.

Luke Falk (6.5; 5.71; 6.5) - Secretive, small, eats tiny prey whole hiding. Abundant where they are. Worm Snake.

Ryan Finley (6.5; 5.43; 3) - Tiny, weak, there are a million of him. But he sees well! Ribbon Snake


Here’s my attempt at “objective” scores as prospects

Arm Strength
Two dimensions here: Air (raw distance and height) and Velocity (speed to a point)

Air
10: Mahomes, Allen, Herbert
9.5: Eason, Levis
9.0: Richardson, Lock, Love
8.5: Lawrence, Fields, Lance, Haskins
8.0: Stroud, Rosen, Darnold, Ridder, Hall, Kizer, Mills, Trubisky, Willis, Hooker, Strong
7.5: Murray, Jackson, Corral, Mond, Howell, Rudolph
7.0: Young, Burrow, Wilson, Watson, M Jones, D Jones, Hurts, Ward, Kelly
6.5: Tua, Mayfield, Pickett
6.0: Grier, Zappe
5.5: Trask
5.0: Kaaya, Falk, Finley

Velocity
10: Mahomes, Allen, Richardson
9.5: Eason, Levis, Lock, Herbert
9.0: Lawrence, Fields
8.5: Lance, Haskins, Rosen
8.0: Love, Stroud, Kizer, Trubisky, Willis, Mond, Wilson, D Jones
7.5: Darnold, Ridder, Mills, Hooker, Murray, Howel
7.0: Hall, Jackson, Corral, Rudolph, Young, M Jones, Ward, Kelly, Mayfield, Pickett, Kaaya
6.5: Strong, Watson, Tua
6.0: Burrow, Hurts, Falk
5.5: Trask
4.5 Zappe
4.0: Grier
3.5: Finley

Notes
Watson did the most to improve here in the league, excellent mechanical work to get a couple points on velocity and air both now compared to where I would put him at around an 8 on velocity and a 7.5-8 on air.
Eason and Lock both make me sad because they could be so so good if they ever learned touch and ball placement.
Burrow, Hurts, and Tua are odd because they’re so average in this area that you forget that all you need is enough arm to get a ball where it’ll work, not necessarily anywhere.

Accuracy
Two dimensions here, ball placement and timing. The distributions/grades on this are tighter and less generous because of just how rare elite accuracy really is in college because you’re just not punished for it the same way.

Placement
8.5 Burrow
8.0: Lawrence, Stroud, Murray
7.5: Young, Mayfield, Tua
7.0: Mahomes, Fields, Rosen, M Jones, Kaaya, Trask
6.5: Haskins, Lance, Trubisky, Wilson, Ridder, Jackson, Corral, Pickett, Watson, Zappe
6.0: Lock, D Jones, Darnold, Mills, Hooker, Hall, Ward, Strong, Hurts, Falk, Grier, Finley
5.5: Howell, Kelly,
5.0: Levis, Herbert, Love, Kizer, Willis, Mond, Rudolph
4.0: Allen, Richardson, Eason

Timing
8.0: Burrow
7.5: Lawrence, Young
7.0: Stroud, Murray, Mayfield, Tua, Rosen, M Jones, Trask, Haskins, Watson, Grier
6.5: Mahomes, Fields, Lance, Wilson, Jackson, Zappe, D Jones
6.0: Kaaya, Ridder, Corral, Pickett, Darnold, Hurts, Falk, Finley
5.5: Mond
5.0: Trubisky, Mills, Hall, Ward, Strong, Howell, Levis, Herbert, Kizer
4.5: Kelly, Richardson, Eason
4.0: Lock, Hooker, Love. Willis, Rudolph, Allen

Notes:
The Leach line about accuracy never improving is largely correct save a handful of guys like Allen and Mahomes who needed a mixture of help around them and fixed mechanics to demonstrate what they can do.
Burrow’s ball placement was so loving freakish man.
Another field where Rosen was straight up fools gold

Mechanics
These count both feet and arm, so don’t be surprised if these score lower than you’d expect


9.0: Wilson
8.5: Lawrence
8.0: Levis
7.5: Burrow, Murray, Rosen
7.0: Young, Stroud, Tua, Grier, Mills
6.5: Mayfield, M Jones, Watson, Zappe, Kaaya, Pickett, Mond
6.0: Trask, Fields, Jackson,D Jones, Ridder, Corral, Darnold, Falk, Finley, Howell, Herbert, Kelly, Rudolph
5.5: Haskins
5.0: Lance, Trubisky, Hall, Ward, Kizer, Richardson, Love
4.5: Strong, Willis, Allen
4.0: Mahomes, Hurts, Eason, Lock, Hooker


Notes
Least predictive metric by far. Bad mechanics that work > good mechanics that don’t.
Sometimes it doesn’t even take much of a tweak to fix things, Allen and Mahomes basically just did footwork drills! Watson learned to step in.

Movement

10: Jackson
9: Richardson
8.5: Willis, Hurts
8.0: Young, Murray, Watson
7.5: Fields, Ridder, Darnold, Lance, Hall
7.0: Alexis, Mond, Ward, Kizer, Hooker
6.5: Lawrence, Burrow, Allen
6.0: Tua, Mayfield, Corral, Love, Mahomes
5.5: Pickett, Herbert, Kelly
5.0: Wilson, Stroud, Grier, Zappe, Kaaya, D Jones, Finley, Haskins, Trubisky, Lock
4.5: M Hones
4.0: Rosen, Trask, Falk, Eason
3.5: Mills, Rudolph
2.0: Strong

Processing/Recognitiom

Similar to accuracy metrics, can see some outliers but the college offense really obscures some of this past a certain point. Far more constrained scores.

8.5: Burrow
7.5: Fields, Lawrence
7.0: Young, Murray, Watson, Tua, Mayfield, Stroud, Kaaya, Rosen, Trask
6.5: Jackson, Darnold, Pickett, Zappe, Finley, Haskins, M Jones
6.0: Ridder, Lance, Hall, Corral, Mahomes, Wilson, Grier
5.5: D Jones, Mills
5.0: Hurts, Levis, Mond, Ward, Kizer, Hooker, Allen, Love, Herbert, Kelly, Trubisky, Lock
4.5: Richardson, Howell
4.0: Willis, Eason, Strong

Notes
Guys who pop here really pop, most guys it’s a question almost of “what would someone else see here” which is hard to distinguish


My overall thoughts:

I don’t love the number scoring for a few reasons. Notably it’s hard to articulate how hard a ceiling a rating is on a guy or why exactly a mechanical rating is really bad for one player but not so much for another. I do longform for a reason but trying to pair my subjective vibes on things with a numerical score aren’t completely disconnected it appears.

Biggest overrates are Rosen, Darnold, Haskins, Mayfield. Didn’t accurately account for turnover potential or laziness in picking up a scheme on any of them.

Biggest underrated are Mahomes, Allen, Watson, and Herbert. I acknowledged Lamar’s talent but don’t think I really expected him to get embraced by a team like he has been. The first 4 working on their footwork allowed them to play up to their arm talent and processing by making them more accurate which is historically a terrible bet.

Personal pat on the back for calling for Fields over Wilson and elevating Burrow over Tua.

Arm talent and accuracy working together really are the key, everything else is secondary.

I’ve gotten better at this—biggest misses were in the first few years

Scouting is about “what does a success require” and knowing all the pitfalls beyond that. You can’t learn how good of a student a guy is from the tape, just hints at what can happen.

Encourage anyone with archives to go back and read some of the old threads. My misses are pretty funny on some guys like Rosen but can definitely see knowledge and experience build like with anything else.

TheGreyGhost posted:

Here comes the single lengthiest post I have ever made here. Some early house rules

Format for section (Subjective/Objective/Dog score) - Snake

Trevor Lawrence (9.5; 7.93; 7) - Cleanest or least objectionable prospect in 6 years. Will go as far as his footwork takes him. The Burmese Python where he is broadly adaptable to Florida and immediately became a mascot for part of Florida.

Kyler Murray (9; 7.50; 6.5) - Undersized but similarly unobjectionable to Lawrence. The Borneo Blood Python for being active mainly at night or when trying to escape.

Justin Fields (9; 7.43; 7.5) - The guy overshadowed by Lawrence but who was essentially just as capable. The Red Tailed Boa who gets overshadowed by the Burmese Python but otherwise would get the headlines for invading a habitat.

Joe Burrow (9; 7.43; 10) - The anti-tools guy who just gets the ball where it’s supposed to be. California Mountain Kingsnake where he’s incredibly dangerous to the other snakes because he can take hits and outlast them.

CJ Stroud (8.5; 7.14; 4) - Elite pocket guy in rhythm who has weird vibes at times and sometimes misses obvious threats. The Coachwhip Snake—known for constricting blood flow to improve eyesight when threatened but otherwise coasting in life.


Arm Strength
Two dimensions here: Air (raw distance and height) and Velocity (speed to a point)

Air
10: Mahomes, Allen, Herbert
9.5: Eason, Levis
9.0: Richardson, Lock, Love
8.5: Lawrence, Fields, Lance, Haskins
8.0: Stroud, Rosen, Darnold, Ridder, Hall, Kizer, Mills, Trubisky, Willis, Hooker, Strong


Velocity
10: Mahomes, Allen, Richardson
9.5: Eason, Levis, Lock, Herbert
9.0: Lawrence, Fields
8.5: Lance, Haskins, Rosen
8.0: Love, Stroud, Kizer, Trubisky, Willis, Mond, Wilson, D Jones

Accuracy
Two dimensions here, ball placement and timing. The distributions/grades on this are tighter and less generous because of just how rare elite accuracy really is in college because you’re just not punished for it the same way.

Placement
8.5 Burrow
8.0: Lawrence, Stroud, Murray
7.5: Young, Mayfield, Tua

Timing
8.0: Burrow
7.5: Lawrence, Young
7.0: Stroud, Murray, Mayfield, Tua, Rosen, M Jones, Trask, Haskins, Watson, Grier

Doltos posted:

Strouds pinpoint when he's on. So are Bryce and Levis in the intermediate game.