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Unless Tesla start breaking down or a lot more people start dying in them I don't think their brand is irreparably damaged. Volvo has been trading on those criteria since at least the 70s
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Dec 28, 2022 20:11
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Hadlock posted:Unless Tesla start breaking down or a lot more people start dying in them I don't think their brand is irreparably damaged. Volvo has been trading on those criteria since at least the 70s Hadlock, months before Tesla hits $40.
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Dec 28, 2022 22:20
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Oh yeah, Tesla stock price still has further to fall People will continue to buy teslas though, there's not a lot of actually good electric vehicles out there that aren't the taycan
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Dec 28, 2022 23:20
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Hadlock posted:Oh yeah, Tesla stock price still has further to fall The Ioniq was the SUV of the year, no? Other manufacturers are catching up quick and they have much better build quality. Plus, they’re not teslas, so they got that going for them, which is good
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Dec 28, 2022 23:55
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Everyone ready for their end of year reports? I was promised a santa claus rally, and I'm afraid instead I'm gonna be finishing the year in the red. poo poo year from start to end.
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Dec 29, 2022 00:05
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Tesla has a huge amount of consumer momentum imo. They are very high performance, they have great range, they have the supercharger fast charging network which is completely unmatched by competitors as of yet. They have a big cool factor (though this will definitely have been blunted by musk's asshattery). And they give the impression that they are pushing the boundaries of what a car can do, in a way no one else is yet. Which is not to say that they don't have significant issues in some areas but there is a reason their sales figures are so strong (as I understand it).
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Dec 29, 2022 00:06
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Teslas all look boring as gently caress on the outside because they are still using the same design language (and the model is essentially the same outside) they started selling a decade ago. Inside they are even worse. The competition right now has some awesome cars that actually look cool as gently caress and have decent interiors. The only thing Tesla has going for it is the charging network and class leading (for now) average range. Those things aren't cool. Those things are practical. Tesla makes boring cars.
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Dec 29, 2022 01:13
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Best bet this year for me was TBT calls. I sold most of my trash tech PLTR specifically. I was green only because of TBT, I did a lot less trading in general. I have no great thesis for 2023 yet. I think overvalued equities like TSLA will continue to decline. Any company that doesn't have good management will suffer the most and there will be a ton of volatility in commodities in general.
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Dec 29, 2022 01:26
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could somebody tldr me on what in the gently caress they are talking about over at /r/superstonk. It doesn't have to make sense, I have just tried to see like a short summary of what they're talking about and nothing is less than 5k schizo-drivel. All I can gather is that somebody is doing the most illegalest thing in the world, you should direct register your gamestop shares and that we are in the end game, for real this time
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Dec 29, 2022 16:18
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 but stocks When did they change the smilie for kyoon???
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Dec 29, 2022 16:21
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bollig posted:could somebody tldr me on what in the gently caress they are talking about over at /r/superstonk. It doesn't have to make sense, I have just tried to see like a short summary of what they're talking about and nothing is less than 5k schizo-drivel. All I can gather is that somebody is doing the most illegalest thing in the world, you should direct register your gamestop shares and that we are in the end game, for real this time https://www.thestreet.com/memestocks/gme/gamestop-stock-71-3-million-shares-directly-transferred-to-transfer-agent
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Dec 29, 2022 16:55
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bollig posted:could somebody tldr me on what in the gently caress they are talking about over at /r/superstonk. It doesn't have to make sense, I have just tried to see like a short summary of what they're talking about and nothing is less than 5k schizo-drivel. All I can gather is that somebody is doing the most illegalest thing in the world, you should direct register your gamestop shares and that we are in the end game, for real this time Its QAnin, but for stocks. Trying to make sense of that kind of crazy is only going to make your head hurt.
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Dec 29, 2022 17:39
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Sand Monster posted:https://www.thestreet.com/memestocks/gme/gamestop-stock-71-3-million-shares-directly-transferred-to-transfer-agent "We sucker-punched Mike Tyson and he's been beating us silly ever since. However... what if we stay in the ring and he punches us so much he tires out? That's a real boxing strategy, right? And then we'll beat HIS rear end! We'll be invincible!"
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Dec 29, 2022 17:51
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They think that all the hedge funds still have giant short positions against the stock and that they can get another, even bigger short squeeze to happen.
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Dec 29, 2022 19:42
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Space Fish posted:"We sucker-punched Mike Tyson and he's been beating us silly ever since. However... what if we stay in the ring and he punches us so much he tires out? That's a real boxing strategy, right? And then we'll beat HIS rear end! We'll be invincible!" Isn’t that actually what Muhammad Ali did vs Joe Frazier?
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Dec 29, 2022 19:47
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pseudanonymous posted:Isn’t that actually what Muhammad Ali did vs Joe Frazier? Yeah but against George Foreman ("The Rumble in the Jungle").
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Dec 29, 2022 20:15
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Sand Monster posted:Yeah but against George Foreman ("The Rumble in the Jungle"). Okay. But in no universe is Wall Street Bets the Muhammed Ali of anything.
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Dec 29, 2022 20:26
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pseudanonymous posted:Okay. But in no universe is Wall Street Bets the Muhammed Ali of anything. Maybe hosed-up-by-Parkinson’s Muhammed Ali
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Dec 29, 2022 20:34
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Every stock hit the top of the 4 hour channel ar once Sussy
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Dec 29, 2022 23:49
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Hope everyone had a good trading year. This market has been brutal. Results: +22% roughly Biggest winners: UVXY and VIX Tactical selling of uvxy and vix calls in a year with major vol underperformance and very few scares Biggest losers: GOOG: didn’t stick to my rules, didn’t let the shares go at my price to cut losses. SPY: hedging costs money 2023: Tbill ladder and sell options against that collateral Gamble less Add to winners Don’t try to fade trends without any signal, technical or otherwise Gamble less
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Dec 30, 2022 22:32
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Pastrami posted:Tbill ladder and sell options against that collateral Been considering this, what platform do you use and how does the collateral work?
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Dec 30, 2022 23:00
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TD Ameritrade. Tbills are basically like cash (99% margin). I do a ladder of 8w, 3 month, and 6 month bills
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Dec 30, 2022 23:32
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https://twitter.com/eddiedonmez/status/1608870013930459137?s=20 nice collection of investment bank 2023 outlooks, in reply @ tweet. he links to posts of his on linkedin and from there you can download PDFs. you know, to see how wrong they all are 252 trading days from now.
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Dec 31, 2022 16:52
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Pretty interesting graph from blackrock  Most everyone is on board with the idea that we're in a supply constrained inflationary period, likely due to covid; that green dashed line sort of represents when they think the economy will be ready to supply demand again. I don't have access to a straight edge but looks like 2027 or maybe even 2030 I guess I'm not super surprised, it's going to take a while for new young people to enter the workforce, but that's the first time I've seen that future supply graph spelled out so clearly. I was expecting the economy to reach some semblance of normalcy closer to 2025
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Dec 31, 2022 17:06
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Let's talk about 2022! BENCHMARKS It was a pretty brutal year out there.
The speculative account is where I do stock picking and swing trades. From a risk-adjusted perspective I did well, at least compared to the rest of the market this year:
 You can see how I really cut back on my risk exposure around Labor Day. WHAT WORKED
I'm probably going to play it safe in 2023. I am vaguely bearish on the macro but if the US sees a recession this year, it will probably be mild. As usual I wish I had better insight into what's going on in China, because by sheer size they're increasingly in the driver's seat. As I see it stocks are fairly valued to somewhat overvalued; expected volatility seems neither too high nor too low; I'd expect the Fed to continue raising short term rates so long as nothing breaks in the meantime. I do think that long-term bonds look overpriced here. Shorting TLT (for example) at the beginning of 2022 would've been a fantastic trade, and I suspect it will still do well in 2023. The industrialized world has likely broken out of its liquidity trap dating from 2008 and long-term rates will likely start heading back to their long-term averages. So, mark this one down to laugh at me later if it's wrong: short TLT here at $99.56 and we'll see how it did at the end of 2023. Good luck to everyone this coming year!
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Dec 31, 2022 18:27
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So basically my stocks that are currently in the red are likely going to take forever to recover?
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Dec 31, 2022 18:29
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latinotwink1997 posted:So basically my stocks that are currently in the red are likely going to take forever to recover? They might not ever! Take a look at the CSCO max chart
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Dec 31, 2022 19:35
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Nortel's another cautionary one. In the summer of 2000, the company's market cap was so high that it constituted something like 35% of the entire Canadian market. Within two years, the stock had dropped from C$124 to C$0.47 per share.
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Dec 31, 2022 20:07
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If you guys are talking CSCO and Nortel, don't forget Lucent! Amazing how the big three *all* went in the shitter. The same business model I believe, giving away the equipment for little to nothing up front, then never getting paid.
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Dec 31, 2022 20:09
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401k (boring index funds): -9.4% IRA (actively traded): -2.2% Individual Invest (actively traded aggressively): +28.9% So the part of my portfolio that made money is also only part that pays taxes on earnings. Perfect. Biggest winners were $gogl (dry bulk shipping) $flng (liquid nat gas shipping) $mro (energy) $nvo (pharma diabetes) Biggest losers were $atos (pharma penny held too long) and Russian index fund (lol, lmao) Looking forward cash is no long trash. My savings account is now up to 3.3% apr. It's nice to at least have a conservative option that yields more than zero. I expect the market to trade mostly sideways for a while, but that isn't based on anything more than gut feeling. Maybe selling options will continue to serve me well. No particular sector has me extremely excited at the moment. Tech has taken a beating, but as a result its current value proposition is better, not quite ready to try catching that falling knife yet though. Could be good value bargains to be had for the brave this year.
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Dec 31, 2022 21:13
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Hadlock posted:Pretty interesting graph from blackrock IMO inflation is not properly defined as solely a gap between supply and GDP. GDP contains domestic supply only! A major component of supply constraint has been China's restrictions and lockdowns reducing imports. That is clearly changing and its change (or not) is not dependent on a domestic recession. Another major component of supply constraint has been oil, and its price reacted accordingly. Check out the price of oil today. ~$80/bbl is historically on the high end but essentially a new "normal" and is close to the 2018 high point. Check this out: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/07/freight-rates-from-china-to-west-coast-down-90percent-as-trade-falls-rapidly.html My conclusion is that we are already seeing the supply constraints evaporate and I think inflation is going to dip sharply in 2023 - we are already near or at intersection with that "green line" of the economy able to meet domestic demand. I hope that central bank policy reacts quickly and does not push us into a deep recession.
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Dec 31, 2022 21:38
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Hey, we've got a feedback/rules discussion thread for the new year up here https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=4020879 Appreciate any and all of your thoughts. And I need to do the math on this piss poor year. Suffice to say my portfolio is tech heavy as always, so uhhh......
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Dec 31, 2022 23:24
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The ONE loving year I max out my Roth at the beginning of the year. Normally I throw $500 a month in but figured I’d do it all in January.
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Dec 31, 2022 23:41
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2022 Investing Report 457b (started in November 2021, what great timing) = -11.47% (started with S&P 500, then added small-cap index, then added active ex-US option) Roth IRA = +5.42% after an uncannily timed switch from FZROX+FZILX to VT, during the pause of which the market shat the bed. Taxable = -85%, which represents my sole individual stock (what else but $GOON aka NDRA). Made modest gains on short-terms swings of BBBY (hello August spike), EXPR, LCID, and GME. Pulled the trigger on some green and, in the case of 2022, avoided a whole lot of red. Probably my last big-risk plays for a good while. Earlier this month my taxable account showed a gain for the year of $2,500, and I took that opportunity to cut some losers and reduce my upcoming tax bill (bye RIVN and UONE!). I bonds: maxed out in late 2021, early 2022, and soon early 2023! After passing through the first two contributions' worth of lock-up, the ice is all free skating now. T-bills: The first rung of the ladder is in place and I look forward to establishing a self-rolling system over the next few weeks. Crypto: Sometime earlier this year I converted all my free Coinbase shitcoins to Bitcoin and cashed them out. Glad to be rid of that circus and its extra tax-time paperwork. I've set up the Roth portion of my 457b to begin contributions in 2023 so that it, too, is locked up where I can't/won't futz around with funds or meme plays. Having these contributions automatically deducted from my paycheck enforces responsible spending, too.
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Jan 1, 2023 01:00
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Let’s get some more negative numbers in here to balance out those people with gains: 401k (TDFs): -9.8% IRA (mostly index funds with some individual stocks and semi-active trading): -17% Taxable (most active trading): -5% Biggest winners: IWM OTM Put Calendar Spreads: Just repeated covering the short leg on rips and reselling on dips. Finally closed out the entire calendar last week. VOO swing trade: Bought in October and sold in Dec. Biggest losers: EWZ short puts: Sold puts and the etf had three gap down days soon after (June timeframe). Had puts for Aug and panic covered. Would have been a slight winner if I held onto the puts. BBBY short puts: Touched the poop when the IV skyrocketed and sold far OTM puts. This was an oversized trade and panic covered again when news came out that Ryan sold all his shares. Lessons for the new year? Be more loving disciplined. Put time into trading and have a plan to prevent FOMO, revenge trading, oversizing trades, and other newbie poo poo that is easier said than done. Maybe try adding multiple positions to leave runners or roll options more often to secure gains but prevent cutting potential winners too early.
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Jan 1, 2023 01:30
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Link in tweet goes to absolutely great explanation from CBOE about recent equity put/call ratio spikes, with very detailed data. https://twitter.com/WallStJesus/status/1609329857200111618 Example quote: quote:The incidence of heavy volume in deep ITM contracts with no resulting open interest is indicative of a strategy employed by the largest market participants to minimize exposure to early assignment. Commonly seen in deep ITM calls ahead of an ex-dividend date, this type of activity creates large blocks of open interest that are immediately assigned by another party. The net effect is that early assignment on original short positions is avoided based on the percentage pro-rata allocation method used by OCC. Another effect is a sharp spike in the equity put/call ratio that is nondirectional and unrelated to typical option use cases.
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Jan 1, 2023 02:00
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Agronox posted:As I see it stocks are fairly valued to somewhat overvalued; expected volatility seems neither too high nor too low; I'd expect the Fed to continue raising short term rates so long as nothing breaks in the meantime. Mmm I entered into a leap at spy 380. I plan on cutting around 420-430. Just pointing this out for posterity. I can't see us bottoming much lower, although, I've had people warn me (Flowing) that bear markets have 33-50% of their draw downs in the last 1/3rd. I like the tlt trade tho. Thinking about opening tsla short now that the squeeze should be calming down.
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Jan 1, 2023 04:28
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PoppingFresh posted:Let’s get some more negative numbers in here to balance out those people with gains: for some reason i bought a bit of arkk in january 2022
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Jan 1, 2023 04:31
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This was a big learning year for me, as I'd become fat and lazy on years of bull markets and this one really shook me into paying a lot more attention to what the market is doing instead of buying and holding and turning my brain off. With my retirement investment accounts, well they pretty much largely track the S&P500 so no real story to tell here. I continued to buy in more S&P tracking ETFs from time to time throughout the year with money I had set aside. But yeah the real story is being down uhhh -60% in my taxable gambling account mostly due to having big holdings in SHOP and META that sunk like stones. Now I didn't lose any money on those investments, as I'd been holding them for a long time, but I certainly wish I sold in early January instead of several weeks later! Biggest Losers Held big techcos SHOP and META waaaaay too long ~bought the dip~ on GOOG and it continued to sink another 20% before I sold it. ~bought the dip~ on AMD at ~100 and it continued to sink further. Had small scratch n' win sized investments in RIVN and LCID in hopes that one would get lucky and become the next TSLA and boy that certainly didn't happen! Biggest Winners SARK Pivoting quickly into XLE after I shed all the shitcos and techcos I was holding. Sold much of it at a 48% gain. Paying closer attention to market trends, bought NIKE at a low and rode a rally to selling it for a ~25% gain. (I actually like this company and would be happy to hold this for the long term but decided to take money out of the market instead) Lessons For 2023 take profit you loving moron holy poo poo set some stop orders Market Predictions for 2023 I still kind of think that GOOG has some good years ahead but terrified to touch that again after having so poorly timed my earlier purchase yikes. Probably won't be doing quite so much in my taxable account in 2023 as interest rates have risen high enough that tbh it kind of makes more sense for me to take some profits out of the taxable account and simply apply them to my mortgage instead (Canadian mortgage up for renewal). This will limit the amount of money I have to play around with. I'm a bit glad this year with these bad mistakes happened while I'm relatively young as I'll hopefully develop some better habits for the future coming out of this. (advice gladly accepted!) Femtosecond fucked around with this message at 09:34 on Jan 1, 2023 |
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Jan 1, 2023 04:56
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I track total net worth month to month, not trading accounts, but it was an absolute blood bath of a year for me on almost any measure. -25.3% , loving A. Definitely worst year since 2008. I remain very heavy on Amazon and Apple, so that's why it went very bad on me. Was actually not doing too bad as recently as august, but the last couple months, goddamn. Amazon 143 to 84, Apple 172 to 130. Nasdaq is down 33.5% on the year, so I guess I beat that comparable! Barely. I'm feeling poor as hell, but if I look at it in perspective, I'm still above pre-pandemic numbers. (well poo poo, I guess inflation has eaten away my assets big time, so no, maybe I'm not up, hah!). My active trading was pretty much a push going into december, but ended up contributing about -1% of the total. I continue to think that recession fears are overblown. The conventional wisdom has been pricing in worse and worse recessions all goddamn year, and it hasn't happened. But the market keeps expecting it to happen "soon", and we keep going down. Meanwhile inflation has obviously peaked, been trending down for the last 6 months (except for one month when leases renewed), but we're acting like the next financial crisis is right around the corner. Decent chance the last rate hike is behind us, and rates might actually be lower six months from now, unless the Fed is determined to not lower until the YoY actually gets under 2. Which I guess decent chance they might? Thats what Jpow says, and he has been doing what he says he will do. And the Fed didn't start raising until 6 months too late. It's so much easier to be reactionary than forward looking. Covid in china is a big deal, but they have so many people to toss into the factories to keep the supply chains running. Europe hasn't frozen yet. For most of the year it seemed like multiple black swans were right around the corner, but right now I actually feel pretty optimistic, somehow. Biggest lesson for the year was I have got to stop being so stubborn on trades that go against me. I sell options, and I need to just close them out on expiration instead of ever taking delivery. I had a ton of winners, but the couple big losers I couldn't let go of really got me this year. Biggest losers: BGFV (think this might be my biggest loss yet), CURV, GREE Biggest winners: selling a lot of ATVI 50p, AMC 5p, AMC 2.5p, CLR 65p, CALT 15p, CNR 20p, TRQ 26p , CTXS 100p, SJI 35p, etc etc. But I need to be right about 10 times for every short put that really gets away from me, and some got away from me big this year. Just dumb. I scaled back for most of the year, many fewer positions, on safer propositions. Have a decent-ish amount of cash for now, just bought some SGOV to park it in. Will probably get it in if we go back to the SPY 350 neighborhood.
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Jan 1, 2023 07:17
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