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sullat posted:I mean it would be like the sub war in the Atlantic; if we have more disposable freighters & crews than they have missiles than the blockade won't work. it would come down to: does the west have the willingness to actually have government operated cargo ships send supplies, because civilians aren't going to run a blockade it would be reasonably difficult to entirely cut off taiwan with just land based ASMs if they were escorted (having to go over taiwan would mean being the missiles are spotted and engaged by anti-air defenses for a very long time, or going around the island dramatically reduces available fuel for a final sprint phase) while trivial if they were not (the risk being present at all would invalidate maritime insurance and bankrupt any company dumb enough to try)
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Jan 13, 2023 22:37
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atelier morgan posted:it would come down to: does the west have the willingness to actually have government operated cargo ships send supplies, because civilians aren't going to run a blockade The PLAN probably wouldn't actually be handling blockade duties itself rather it would be Chinese coast guard/militia that nevertheless would have to be cleared out. One way or another it would take the USN to be psychically present in the engagement zone to make a difference. Also, I would say the second Taiwan starts opening up on Chinese missiles, the PLA will start knocking out their missile defense batteries and I don't think Taiwan can do much about it.
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Jan 13, 2023 23:06
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there’s really only one country worldwide that has that ability, it’s the US’s RRF. I used to be part of the list that would get called up for that. it’s a weird program. those ships are getting long in the tooth though, I’ve seen some talk of getting new ships into the program. but in a real war there is another option. they can just take civilian ships. most countries and the US especially have laws for that. just straight up it’s in our port that’s ours now.
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Jan 13, 2023 23:09
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sullat posted:I mean it would be like the sub war in the Atlantic; if we have more disposable freighters & crews than they have missiles than the blockade won't work. the small problem here is that there are three countries that account for about 90% of the world's merchant shipbuilding, and those are japan, south korea and china itself so in other words the us will have no real way to replace sunk freighters because those japanese and korean shipyards are sure as hell going to be a priority target for china if the poo poo hits the fan
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Jan 13, 2023 23:24
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china should invade hawaii and skip taiwan
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Jan 13, 2023 23:27
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the solution to all these problems are nuclear weapons
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Jan 13, 2023 23:31
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Real hurthling! posted:china should invade
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Jan 13, 2023 23:32
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gradenko_2000 posted:the thing about nuclear submarines is that you cannot turn off the reactor, so there's always some machinery running and, by extension, always some noise This man read the littoral waters naval operations textbook they made us read before RIMPAC. What he said.
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Jan 13, 2023 23:36
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Taiwan's not only in antiship missile range of the mainland, it's also been in range of China's 370mm rockets for a while and the PLA also has even larger rockets if they have to resort to dumb munitions. If that's too old fashioned then there's the whole arsenal of suicide drones/loitering munitions from the mainland and the usual armed ucavs that make having no air defense unbearable. Edit: So waiting for China to run out stuff to shoot is a fool's game from the get-go because the PLA has plenty of more replaceable options that they can reserve missiles for valuable warships/planes if they have to. Danann has issued a correction as of 00:06 on Jan 14, 2023 |
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Jan 14, 2023 00:03
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gradenko_2000 posted:
california should join the belt and road
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Jan 14, 2023 00:23
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Cerebral Bore posted:the small problem here is that there are three countries that account for about 90% of the world's merchant shipbuilding, and those are japan, south korea and china itself If we're at the stage where China takes out critical infrastructure in Korea and Japan we're probably a good way past the blockade bit.
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Jan 14, 2023 00:25
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Cerebral Bore posted:the small problem here is that there are three countries that account for about 90% of the world's merchant shipbuilding, and those are japan, south korea and china itself no one in Asia (including the Chinese) will be building merchant ships in this scenario. Just assume no country is replacing … really most of anything. also an invasion and blockade of Taiwan means China isn’t importing commodity grains anymore by vessel from anywhere.
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Jan 14, 2023 00:29
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If anyone wants the numbers, China imports 65 million tons of grain/flour year, if you divide that by 356, that is 182,584 tons per day. If you had an above average train bringing (3,000 tons per trip) of just grain it would take 60 of them of them a day. For no reason in particular: Ukrainian pre-war grain exports were around 45-55 million tons per year.
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Jan 14, 2023 01:00
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There is not (and will not be ) rail capacity for that btw. The more useful transport unit to have in mind is 66,000 tons per Panamax at thier ports draft restrictions. which is about three per day. and most is soy and corn not wheat.
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Jan 14, 2023 01:10
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China is actually the world's largest producer of wheat, they just don't export much of it. I would assume during war-time there would be some degree of changes in diet (also China is mostly self-sufficent). The question of rail through-put is another factor, but at the same time, part of the reason for belt and road was to establish durable rail connections across Eurasia and it has mostly worked. Obviously, a panamax ship is going to be more efficient, but again we are talking about wartime.
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Jan 14, 2023 01:17
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The big hit would be meat(and fish)
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Jan 14, 2023 02:01
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it’s also not a question of efficiencies. the vessel transport isn’t replaceable in magnitude by train period. that’s actually playing out right now with the Ukrainian grain exports btw.
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Jan 14, 2023 02:08
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Centrist Committee posted:california should join the belt and road it might even high-speed rail out of it
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Jan 14, 2023 02:12
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Bar Ran Dun posted:The big hit would be meat(and fish) Isn't a big chunk of that grain import animal feed too?
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Jan 14, 2023 06:21
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yes that’s why. and the Chinese fishing fleet would have issues in this hypothetical situation.
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Jan 14, 2023 06:29
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Weka posted:Isn't a big chunk of that grain import animal feed too? 90% of grains consumed in China are produced there though, so on one hand yes, but on the other hand, it may not matter especially if there are conpensating mechanisms in place. Also, China exports more food as well, and the deficit from imports would be mitigated by a cap on exports. China has clearly been planning on such an eventuality for a while.
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Jan 14, 2023 07:48
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yes they wouldn’t starve. but look at what fairly mild inflation in grocery prices is doing here and ask what happens if meat and fish are unaffordable. they definitely want to mitigate this risk. but how the trade war a few years back went is strong evidence they have not. and what is their mitigation (imperialism) which will build them the same problems we face from out own imperialism.
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Jan 14, 2023 08:02
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Bar Ran Dun posted:but look at what fairly mild inflation in grocery prices is doing here and ask what happens if meat and fish are unaffordable. yes but we’re capitalism and they’re socialism, whatever problem you’re thinking about they’ll undoubtedly handle better
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Jan 14, 2023 08:11
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Bulk food imports (including grains) seem to have begun to reduce whereas imports of stuff like meat, dairy, and horticultural products has massively increased. so yeah there is definitely a danger of a big hit to certain foods availability in the event of a war and that of course comes with the danger of unrest. I think probably nationalism would see them through though.
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Jan 14, 2023 08:13
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Weka posted:I think probably nationalism would see them through though. That’s a big assumption. why would this be widely popular? Centrist Committee posted:yes but we’re capitalism and they’re socialism, whatever problem you’re thinking about they’ll undoubtedly handle better if these things were equal in scale yeah. these are not things equal in scale these are orders of magnitude apart in quantities that would be affected. peel off from the war that’s never going to happen. which country the United States or China is more currently prepared for supply chains to become less global and more regional.
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Jan 14, 2023 08:23
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Bar Ran Dun posted:That’s a big assumption. why would this be widely popular? well the PRC has a lot of goodwill to burn before people grow sick of the war.
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Jan 14, 2023 08:25
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Bar Ran Dun posted:yes they wouldn’t starve. The US is also seeing a much of supply shortages due to Avian flu and everything else there aren’t riots in the streets. Also, China came out of the trade war with pretty well, and I think it is a stretch to call any of this imperialism to be frank. Weka posted:Bulk food imports (including grains) seem to have begun to reduce whereas imports of stuff like meat, dairy, and horticultural products has massively increased. so yeah there is definitely a danger of a big hit to certain foods availability in the event of a war and that of course comes with the danger of unrest. I think probably nationalism would see them through though. The goal of the Chinese is to be around 85% self sufficient in beef and 70% in dairy, and again they also have rail and road connections.
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Jan 14, 2023 08:26
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Bar Ran Dun posted:peel off from the war that’s never going to happen. which country the United States or China is more currently prepared for supply chains to become less global and more regional. that’s happening right now and lol china by a country mile
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Jan 14, 2023 08:26
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 thread title in one image
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Jan 14, 2023 23:13
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sullat posted:I mean it would be like the sub war in the Atlantic; if we have more disposable freighters & crews than they have missiles than the blockade won't work. OK. We don't. Sounds like a defacto missile blockade would totally work then?
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Jan 14, 2023 23:41
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Ardennes posted:I think it is a stretch to call any of this imperialism to be frank. the extraction capacity they're building in Afghanistan where they'll retain 80% equity is looking kinda iffy on this front tbh
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Jan 15, 2023 00:32
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Ardennes posted:I think it is a stretch to call any of this imperialism to be frank. oh that’s how they are trying to get away from US commodity grain though, one good example is how they are buying up African farming capacity. on the fish front well they can legally fish anywhere 12 miles off shore. they’ve decimated a couple fisheries that way. they also sometimes do it illegally too. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/11/30/china-beijing-fishing-africa-north-korea-south-china-sea/ https://allafrica.com/stories/202212110046.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/09/26/world/asia/china-fishing-south-america.html https://www.wired.com/2017/03/yuyang-liu-drifting-west-africa/amp https://www.europarl.europa.eu/meetdocs/2009_2014/documents/pech/dv/chi/china.pdf Ardennes posted:again they also have rail and road connections. and again that you think that’s adequate belays ignorance of the logistics involved. you can do the math and know it’s not adequate. something else you don’t know is that these trades (particularly commodity grain) are also seasonal shipping happens at a specific times of year from specific markets. it’s a bit like a surge.
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Jan 15, 2023 00:55
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Danann posted:thread title in one image its china's fault for not integrating enough with the US MIC
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Jan 15, 2023 01:33
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https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1614134676230213633
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Jan 15, 2023 01:36
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capitalism happened and surprised no one except dumb libs
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Jan 15, 2023 01:44
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indigi posted:the extraction capacity they're building in Afghanistan where they'll retain 80% equity is looking kinda iffy on this front tbh The US straight up looted all of Afghanistan's reserves btw. You could argue the Chinese need to give better terms, but at the same time, this is after the West has done everything possible to starve out the population of Afghanistan. Bar Ran Dun posted:oh that’s how they are trying to get away from US commodity grain though, one good example is how they are buying up African farming capacity. Btw, a lot of "buying up that capacity" is Chinese nationals intermarrying and then purchasing land and staying there and raising a family. I don't know how you want to frame that one. As far as fishing again, I don't know I would square aggressive fishing practices with imperialism to be honest without making the world useless. Also, you can save the articles about debt traps etc. No one knows when a war is going to happen (or if anything China if they could would time it after their granaries are filled). The question isn't it would fully satisfy their current consumption, but rather it would satisfy it enough that there wouldn't be serious unrest or other issues. China already has an very robust domestic agricultural production, and imports are for the most part a much smaller part of that. The logistics involved is not about feeding the entire Chinese nation, it is about assuaging the fall in imports from sea lanes. At the same time, do you really think the Chinese can not in the slightest increase their capacity for inland imports? That the Russians wouldn't at least attempt to address any all in imports? Danann posted:thread title in one image Also, US shipyards are dramatically underperforming despite money being thrown at them. They can out of produce 2 Arleigh-Burke destroyers out of 3 proposed, and 1.25 Virginia class subs out of 2 proposed per year; the Chinese are rapidly expanding their shipyards at the same time. Much of the US subfleet is still old Ohio/Los Angeles class subs from the 1970s/80s to early 1990s. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 02:08 on Jan 15, 2023 |
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Jan 15, 2023 01:59
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China is more willing to and had renegotiated deals that are more favourable to the other party
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Jan 15, 2023 02:05
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Ardennes posted:At the same time, do you really think the Chinese can not in the slightest increase their capacity for inland imports? That the Russians wouldn't at least attempt to address any all in imports? we were talking about a scenario where a largish part of the US fleet is sunk protecting Taiwan. your assumptions in that scenario are exceedingly optimistic regarding what happens to international supply chains. Bar Ran Dun has issued a correction as of 02:10 on Jan 15, 2023 |
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Jan 15, 2023 02:08
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Bar Ran Dun posted:we were talking about a scenario where a largish part of the US fleet is sunk protecting Taiwan. The Russians are already under heavy sanctions, I don't see what is going to knock them around in this case. If anything, China is working to develop trade connections with states in Eurasia that largely have their own internal supply chains. It is true there is going to be an absolute shock to the entire system but it would hit the West and its East Asian allies far worse. We are already seeing this is action now to a lesser extent.
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Jan 15, 2023 02:12
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Ardennes posted:The Russians are already under heavy sanctions, I don't see what is going to knock them around in this case. If anything, China is working to develop trade connections with states in Eurasia that largely have their own internal supply chains. It is true there is going to be an absolute shock to the entire system but it would hit the West and its East Asian allies far worse. We are already seeing this is action now to a lesser extent. Like the entire US economy almost collapsed when it was cut off from Chinese manufacturing for a few weeks in 2020. I'm glad no lessons were learned from that
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Jan 15, 2023 02:35
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