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Ardennes posted:The US straight up looted all of Afghanistan's reserves btw. no poo poo
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Jan 15, 2023 02:59
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Ardennes posted:The Russians are already under heavy sanctions, I don't see what is going to knock them around in this case. there is a very very large difference here the Russians are under sanctions. you seem to think that (sanctions) is equivalent to what would happen in this hypothetical Taiwan scenario. if the us didn’t intervene militarily that might lead to an equivalent scenario, one with sanctions similar to Russia. That’s not the scenario being discussed. so you either think US involvement is equivalent between the two scenarios. or you think sanctions are equivalent to what would happen in a real peer war with the US to bluewater shipping.
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Jan 15, 2023 03:11
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I guess we now know which side the Biden administration favors in that rivalry
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Jan 15, 2023 03:38
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i believe in xi
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Jan 15, 2023 03:53
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Bar Ran Dun posted:there is a very very large difference here the Russians are under sanctions. Russia had its trade majorly disrupted, including disruption of its manufacturing sector and it found a way to recover and it's economy is not nearly as centralized as China. I wouldn't be worried about the PRC I would be worried about the West as a whole as particularly the US seems to have very little resilience in its economy and even brief interruptions can cause major supply issues. The point being an economy with state involvement can recover from disruptions much quicker than one without it. A disruption to blue water shipping would be a bigger event than Western sanctions, but I would argue that its disruption would be felt more by the West than the PRC.
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Jan 15, 2023 04:08
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Ardennes posted:The point being an economy with state involvement can recover from disruptions much quicker than one without it. you seem to think that in this scenario, where a quarter of the USN is sunk, there would be no state involvement by the US in the economy?
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Jan 15, 2023 04:29
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american state intervention in the economy is just funneling more money to the ruling class
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Jan 15, 2023 04:32
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yellowcar posted:american state intervention in the economy is just funneling more money to the ruling class This. And also making sure adderall is in shortage
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Jan 15, 2023 04:38
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Bar Ran Dun posted:you seem to think that in this scenario, where a quarter of the USN is sunk, there would be no state involvement by the US in the economy? this country can’t even make eggs anymore
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Jan 15, 2023 04:38
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if a quarter of the usn is sunk, either the nukes have already ended the world or the aliens disappeared them and the jdpon is readying the liberation of the U.S. mainland
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Jan 15, 2023 04:42
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Centrist Committee posted:if a quarter of the usn is sunk, either the nukes have already ended the world or the aliens disappeared them and the jdpon is readying the liberation of the U.S. mainland
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Jan 15, 2023 04:43
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in the event of a shooting war i wonder how easily interdicted russia-china trade would be; from what i can tell the major crossings are close to the ocean. certainly the only rail link is, and most of the border is at most like ~1100 mi from japan. would that be relatively simple to take out? i have no idea. of course there are links through third countries as well, would that drive up costs? there is a very narrow piece of border between russia and china east of mongolia but the terrain looks very forbidding, seems like it would be hard to transport goods through. interesting question! maybe i should learn more about the immortal science of logistics.
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Jan 15, 2023 04:43
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Bar Ran Dun posted:you seem to think that in this scenario, where a quarter of the USN is sunk, there would be no state involvement by the US in the economy? It is been a long time since US has have ever did anything of that caliber and in all honesty our latest attempts at improving ship production haven’t worked because again congress threw money at it. I don’t think we can even approach the Chinese in that regard. I am sure there would be some type of tax breaks to save the economy act or whatever, but let’s be honest, there will just be bare store shelves and mass confusion. The US does have food and oil production, society won’t collapse… well completely but it is going to be real messy. lobster shirt posted:in the event of a shooting war i wonder how easily interdicted russia-china trade would be; from what i can tell the major crossings are close to the ocean. certainly the only rail link is, and most of the border is at most like ~1100 mi from japan. would that be relatively simple to take out? i have no idea. of course there are links through third countries as well, would that drive up costs? It is pretty hard to take rail lines even if you are targeting bridges and of course you would drag the Russians into the conflict which means a much larger war. Also, they would probably just go through Kazakhstan and/or Mongolia. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 04:46 on Jan 15, 2023 |
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Jan 15, 2023 04:43
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also given let's say the last three years, the US government has not been particularly good at responding to any economic crises the US fed reserve currently trying to engineer a recession to address inflation!
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Jan 15, 2023 04:47
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yellowcar posted:the US fed reserve currently trying to engineer a recession to address inflation! after redefining the widely accepted definition to say we’re not currently in recession lol
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Jan 15, 2023 04:51
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sorry sorry it was the parliamentarian who changed the definition
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Jan 15, 2023 04:52
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these are all assumptions that would not hold in a serious peer conflict over Taiwan.
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Jan 15, 2023 04:58
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the very idea of state intervention in the market is at odds with the ruling neoliberal ideology of the US government
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Jan 15, 2023 05:05
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yeah y’all seem to be forgetting the relevant exception to that were all that liberalism goes out the window.
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Jan 15, 2023 05:08
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and replaced with what
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Jan 15, 2023 05:08
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Bar Ran Dun posted:these are all assumptions that would not hold in a serious peer conflict over Taiwan. these are reasons we won't be having a serious peer conflict over taiwan
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Jan 15, 2023 05:09
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where is the ruling class gonna go lol
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Jan 15, 2023 05:10
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Bar Ran Dun posted:you seem to think that in this scenario, where a quarter of the USN is sunk, there would be no state involvement by the US in the economy? Do you think Joe Biden or anyone that would become president is going to make Ford stop building cars in order to make Javelins? The Neo-liberal order has fundamentally destroyed the ability for the State to intervene in the economy that isn't dismantling public works to put into private hands. COVID couldn't get the government to use its emergency powers to provide PPE after Obama had liqudated the physical stocks. Let alone that the start of COVID saw the American economy nearly sprial into implosion after shipping from China was distrupted for 8 to 12 weeks, how do you think it would react when we go to war with the place that has the majority of consumer products come from? To even go to the idea of running the blockade by declaring ships in port properties of the United States, where are we gonna get the crews? The West has dismantled is Merchant Marine in order to drive down labor costs. America simply cannot do what it did to win in both world wars because the people in charge are too ideological to do that, and we've destroyed that industrial capacity to build an economy based on usless email jobs and financial crimes. Christ the COVID money was the most the government has done for the people in my life time and they hated doing it, any sort of government intervention would be funneling money to the MIC, Landlords, and Wall Street than cutting Social Security and Meidcare to cover it
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Jan 15, 2023 05:12
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like how can you look at like just the last 20 years of neoliberal economic policy and all the entrenched interests and apparatuses within it and think all that will just go away if a sufficient enough crisis occurs
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Jan 15, 2023 05:15
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atelier morgan posted:these are reasons we won't be having a serious peer conflict over taiwan I agree with that, from either side. it’s just not going to happen.
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Jan 15, 2023 05:25
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Bar Ran Dun posted:these are all assumptions that would not hold in a serious peer conflict over Taiwan. “peer conflict” is one of those made up technical terms, like clean coal. it’s not real. it’s just a way of avoiding the truth of the thread title
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Jan 15, 2023 05:25
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The thing I’m trying to communicate to y’all is… There are a great number of things the US can do but does not. One is interfering with blue water ocean shipping. basics of sea power stuff. it’s a point I’ve tried to make in other threads. we have the ability to be much worse than we are. it’s a mistake to not see the ways that’s possible.
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Jan 15, 2023 06:01
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Bar Ran Dun posted:The thing I’m trying to communicate to y’all is… Ao you're trying to communicate a meaingless concept. Thanks
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Jan 15, 2023 06:13
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america's institutions are hallowed out and incapable of responding to anything just look at what happened with covid
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Jan 15, 2023 06:28
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yellowcar posted:and replaced with what ...fascism
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Jan 15, 2023 07:51
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yellowcar posted:america's institutions are hallowed 
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Jan 15, 2023 08:05
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indigi posted:...fascism It took until 1944 for the Nazis to finally address munitions production. Fascism is an outgrowth of liberals, its final stage before complete collapse, but it doesn't mean it is any more efficient.
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Jan 15, 2023 08:10
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indigi posted:the extraction capacity they're building in Afghanistan where they'll retain 80% equity is looking kinda iffy on this front tbh Per Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid, the Afghan share will increase to 75%. Moreover, it will be refined in Afghanistan and I wouldn't be surprised if a significant proportion is sold locally. https://twitter.com/Zabehulah_M33/status/1610904389576806400 https://twitter.com/Zabehulah_M33/status/1610904394488320001 Today, the oil extraction contract of the Amu Sea basin was signed with the Chinese company (CPEIC). According to this contract, oil will be extracted from an area of 4,500 square kilometers, which is located in three northern provinces (Sarpol, Jawzjan and Faryab). The amount of daily extraction will increase from 1000 to 20000 tons. 3/1 The company (CPEIC) will invest 150 million dollars in one year and 540 million dollars in the next 3 years. In this contract, the Islamic Emirate will be a 20 percent partner, and this share will increase to 75 percent. About 3,000 Afghans will be employed in this project. 3/2 A very important article in this contract that was signed with the company (CPEIC) is that if the said company does not fulfill all the materials and items mentioned in the notice within one year, the contract will be automatically terminated. The total term of this contract will be up to 25 years.
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Jan 15, 2023 09:34
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how exactly are the afghans going to get those resources out of the ground after two decades+ of rank imperial plunder and civil war and with their assets blatantly stolen for the crime of not being a loyal vassal except with foreign assistance? also china has the advantage of actually producing poo poo of value that they can trade, so they don't have the same incentive to prop up their economy by plundering and impoverishing poor countries as the west does. so even if afghanistan eventually takes over a majority stake in these projects they're most likely going to be selling a hell of a lot of resources to china anyway, and that arrangement suits the chinese just fine
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Jan 15, 2023 10:14
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Cerebral Bore posted:how exactly are the afghans going to get those resources out of the ground after two decades+ of rank imperial plunder and civil war and with their assets blatantly stolen for the crime of not being a loyal vassal except with foreign assistance? Yeah, if anything the Chinese have plenty to gain for a stable and relatively prosperous Afghanistan. They have a need for raw resources and it would help solve the issue of radicalism on their frontiers. It is going to take time though. Also, the Chinese are right there, they don’t really have a need for an unstable resource colony.
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Jan 15, 2023 10:30
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democracy dies when dumb brown afghans pick chinese materialism over western shitlib-ism in my not-racist WaPo op-ed
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Jan 15, 2023 10:35
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I'm a bit late to the discussion, but one of the things I remember from a discussion about modern-day submarine operations is that once you [i.e. the nation-state ordering-around a submarine force] sink even a single sizable merchant vessel and deliver the message that you are no longer abiding by certain rules of war [i.e. it's not like Russia is sinking everything in the Black Sea, or every ship trying to dock in Odessa], insurance rates are going to spike up massively and nobody is going to want to sail commercially into an area where they might be sunk. Nation-states would have to commandeer vessels and operate merchants as a merchant-marine in order to make sailings across hostile waters. Having said that, I acknowledge that the contention was over whether the United States Federal government would be willing and capable of doing such a thing. Where I would land is that even if they did, you wouldn't exactly be using such powers to convey regular commercial traffic, only more critical supplies, and even then, it'd still result in massive trade disruptions for uninvolved nations that are simply on either side of the conflict zone.
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Jan 16, 2023 10:38
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gradenko_2000 posted:I'm a bit late to the discussion, but one of the things I remember from a discussion about modern-day submarine operations is that once you [i.e. the nation-state ordering-around a submarine force] sink even a single sizable merchant vessel and deliver the message that you are no longer abiding by certain rules of war [i.e. it's not like Russia is sinking everything in the Black Sea, or every ship trying to dock in Odessa], insurance rates are going to spike up massively and nobody is going to want to sail commercially into an area where they might be sunk. Nation-states would have to commandeer vessels and operate merchants as a merchant-marine in order to make sailings across hostile waters. https://www.forbes.com/2010/04/15/pirates-somalia-shipping-insurance-business-logistics-piracy.html?sh=6b8448115eb2 old article so the numbers are probably different now but even when shipping companies could afford the higher insurance for sailing in pirate-infested waters they had trouble finding crewmen willing to sail in said pirate-infested waters, and that was with US Navy presence in the area a single sub attack could absolutely impact global trade
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Jan 16, 2023 10:46
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yeah a big part of why we don't bomb iran despite usgov's unbroken incredible desire to do so since the revolution is that sinking one tanker in the persian gulf would torpedo the global oil market and cheap energy is america's mandate of heaven
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Jan 16, 2023 11:20
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gradenko_2000 posted:I'm a bit late to the discussion, but one of the things I remember from a discussion about modern-day submarine operations is that once you [i.e. the nation-state ordering-around a submarine force] sink even a single sizable merchant vessel and deliver the message that you are no longer abiding by certain rules of war [i.e. it's not like Russia is sinking everything in the Black Sea, or every ship trying to dock in Odessa], insurance rates are going to spike up massively and nobody is going to want to sail commercially into an area where they might be sunk. Nation-states would have to commandeer vessels and operate merchants as a merchant-marine in order to make sailings across hostile waters. so what your saying is russia could destroy america by blowing up a single container ship full of chinese commodities. I bet they wouldn't though, China likes international trade more than they like russia
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Jan 16, 2023 14:46
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