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Count Roland posted:The cease fire seems to be holding. Tigray says they're leaving territory they're occupying in the Afar region.
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Apr 27, 2022 00:20
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Grouchio posted:Last thing I had heard Abiy Ahmed was personally leading a counter-offensive around Dec/Jan. How'd that go? Went pretty well. Remember how the rebels were in spitting distance of the capital? Well it seems like they overstretched their lines; I wonder if the government let this happen on purpose. Anyway, the government rolled up the rebel advance and pushed them far back from the capital. In late Dec Tigray forces sued for peace and the government indicated it wouldn't re-take the rebel capital. In march the government declared its own ceasefire, ostensibly for humanitarian reasons. Tigray forces just announced they were withdrawing from neighbouring Afar. The humanitarian situation still seems pretty dire but it doesn't look like war is going to break out again in the short term. No idea if there's potential for lasting peace.
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Apr 27, 2022 01:04
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Outside of Tigray, things are slowly returning to normal, but eg Lalibela still has no municipal water, no municipal electricity, 4 months after the TPLF was kicked out. Banks and services there are now running again, but it’s going to be a while before the places that the TPLF counterattacked return to normal, and places like Gashena and Ataye that were completely destroyed will take much longer to recover than relatively wealthy and relatively unscathed Lalibela. Internet is back at least to some extent in cities in Tigray, as of a few months, but still very little information gets out, although I haven’t tried searching Telegram channels in Tigrayan.
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Apr 27, 2022 14:58
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Saladman posted:Outside of Tigray, things are slowly returning to normal, but eg Lalibela still has no municipal water, no municipal electricity, 4 months after the TPLF was kicked out. Banks and services there are now running again, but it’s going to be a while before the places that the TPLF counterattacked return to normal, and places like Gashena and Ataye that were completely destroyed will take much longer to recover than relatively wealthy and relatively unscathed Lalibela. Wow, I'm the most recent person to post here? The guide in Lalibela I've kept in touch with said "TPLF has advanced to a town within 180 km" of Lalibela which is still pretty far (either Korem, which they have controlled for ages, or maybe he means Sekota which is 130 km), but Lalibela residents are starting to evacuate now instead of waiting until last-minute like last December. He said also that in December, TPLF went around all the small villages, even to his hometown ~40 km upstream of Lalibela on the Tekeze river, and went around raping and looting although not killing people - probably since only old people and women with children stayed. As far as I can tell from the news, the TPLF has only advanced on Kobo which was only a few km from the front during the ceasefire, but with the Tigray war it's impossible to know if there's just a lack of reporting on the road from Sekota to Gashena, or if the local residents don't really know either and are in the same information blackout since Internet is so restricted anywhere in/near the front.
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Aug 28, 2022 11:29
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Does it seem like Eritrea is going to invade again? From what I understand that was a large part of what turned the situation against TPLF last time.
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Aug 28, 2022 14:14
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Redmark posted:Does it seem like Eritrea is going to invade again? From what I understand that was a large part of what turned the situation against TPLF last time. Not as far as I understand. There’s nothing more to loot in Tigray and I don’t think they had any real interest beyond looting. They had largely withdrawn well before the TPLF offensive on Addis last Christmas. I remember hearing that drones are what turned things against the TPLF, but I imagine their supply lines were also incredibly overextended, especially given their dire lack of mechanized transport and fuel. Hopefully that lack of fuel and trucks also means they can’t get very far this time either; I can’t really imagine an offensive going well for anyone, especially not one going south. The only thing that would make sense to me is a push towards Sudan so as to have a resupply border, but i guess there must be some military/tactical reason why they tried to push towards Addis rather than towards Humera. Sudan is not too happy with the Ethiopian government either after all that poo poo with the land between the Tekese and the Atbara that is in Sudan but that was (is?) largely populated by Ethiopian farmers despite being legally Sudanese (Al Fashaga)
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Aug 28, 2022 16:49
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Most of the cities of eastern Amhara are now under full curfew from 7pm to 6am and movement restrictions, including as far south as Debre Birhan, which is almost as far as the TPLF made it on their salient last year about 150 km from Addis. The curfew was also declared in Sekota, which I guess means that the TPLF has not actually advanced on the secondary paved road going from Tigray to Amhara, but are focusing instead on the primary road due south from Mekele to Weldiya. Seems kind of weird that even Debre Birhan is under curfew but I guess they're potentially expecting an attack following the exact same lines as last time. https://addisstandard.com/news-lalibela-imposes-curfew-movement-restriction-unauthorized-firearm-possession/ The Ethiopia War Map on Google ( https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1q-M9x3Kshld2Ys36jDU0Y45TmvE7E0km&hl=en&ll=0%2C0&z=5 ) is still the most reliable source, but the TPLF-controlled areas are almost a complete black hole of information except for what little trickles out of Mekele. E: Apparently also they're no longer letting people evacuate; people from Lalibela aren't able to get past Gashena, which is the main crossroads town just south of Lalibela. My ex-guide just asked if I could help and send him some money – this is the first time he has asked for anything in 3 years, other than of course when he was actually showing us around – so I guess things are pretty bad and maybe he will try and bribe his way through or something. Saladman fucked around with this message at 13:32 on Aug 31, 2022 |
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Aug 31, 2022 09:48
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https://www.reddit.com/r/news/comments/xsfb01/army_officers_appear_on_burkina_faso_tv_declare/quote:Army officers appear on Burkina Faso TV, declare new coup So... they couped the coup government? Honestly no idea if that's good or not.
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Oct 1, 2022 15:31
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it's complicated as hell! thomas sankara ruled until 87 when he was coup'd by blaise compaore compaore ruled until 2014 when he fled to cote d'ivoire, was replaced by BF's first civilian president. this civilian was coup'd in january by the highlighted name in the above article. the new military government indicted compaore and found him guilty in absentia for the old sankara coup just this april. i don't have any idea who the new guys are or how they're aligned but if i had to guess it would be pro-compaore bad guys or something else unrelated. hope that's not too complicated of a rundown edit looks like wikipedia's on the case quote:With Damiba at its head, the Patriotic Movement for Safeguard and Restoration military junta pledged to improve security and eventually restore civilian rule. However, the military regime failed to defeat the Jihadists; instead, rebels ad other non-state actors even expanded their operations and controlled 40% of the country by September 2022. Many military officers gew dissatisfied with Damiba, believing that he did not focus on the rebellion.[21][22][23] Jihadist insurgents launched several major attacks in September 2022, causing the Interim President reshuffling his cabinet. On 12 September, Damiba fired his defense minister, General Aimé Barthélemy Simporé, and assumed the position himself. He also appointed Colonel-Major Silas Keita as minister delegate in charge of national defence.[1] These changes did not satisfy the disgruntled army elements.[21][22] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat i say swears online fucked around with this message at 16:19 on Oct 1, 2022 |
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Oct 1, 2022 16:15
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Evidently the coup started on Friday as a strike by special forces for better pay and bonuses and evolved from there into a coup attempt. Reportedly when the coup was in the balance on Saturday, Traore took to social media to leverage the anti-French activists who then Molotov cocktailed the French embassy, waved Russian flags, etc to create more anti-Damiba noise. It was at risk of confrontation but both sides talked it out and it was apparent that the younger crowd (Traore is a captain about 32 years old) had more support within the army. Understanding is that this is a coup within a coup, Traore was part of the faction that overthrew the civilian leadership and that the intent is not to change direction dramatically but because they think they can run things better. It is still roughly that Burkina Faso needs to focus on the insurgency in the north and that the support of Niger, Cote D'Ivoire and France is needed for this (as opposed to the Mali path which is to enlist the help of Russia).
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Oct 5, 2022 07:21
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In Toronto yesterday I saw a bunch of people protesting with Ethiopian flags and loudspeakers against Abiy. It's a shame that with the focus on Ukraine the situation is pretty much ignored. I wasn't able to hear exactly what the protestors were saying other than "Canada stop killing innocent ___"; are the Oromo and other ethnic disputes also resurgent in the current flare-up, or is it pretty much Ethiopia+Eritrea against Tigray? Is Canada, or other foreign powers, involved at all, or is it more of a call to action? Redmark fucked around with this message at 03:40 on Oct 24, 2022 |
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Oct 24, 2022 03:35
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Redmark posted:In Toronto yesterday I saw a bunch of people protesting with Ethiopian flags and loudspeakers against Abiy. poo poo's complicated! the cold war history of the country is still in recent memory and plays into the politics of today. both religion and ethnicity are important and ahmed identifies as a pentecostal oromo iirc. the tigray were the pro-US group and probably received canadian support while they ruled the country in the aftermath of their victory over the USSR-supported people's democratic republic. they lost power after nearly three decades in 2018. ahmed is the first oromo leader of ethiopia despite being of the largest ethnic group. wish i could say more but i'm not that educated on the subject i say swears online fucked around with this message at 06:01 on Oct 24, 2022 |
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Oct 24, 2022 05:58
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Redmark posted:In Toronto yesterday I saw a bunch of people protesting with Ethiopian flags and loudspeakers against Abiy. Besides Eritrea, no one else is really involved, besides lackluster calls for peace etc. The global response to the war in Tigray is pretty much like the Indian and Chinese response to the war in Ukraine ("both sides should chill, aid should be allowed to reach, everyone has grievances..."). The issues in Ethiopia are really very old, hundreds of years. The conflict between Oromia and Amhara/Tigrayans aka Abyssinians dates from at least the 1500s when Oromos started moving into highland areas after the highland Christian, Semitic-speaking Ethiopians got wrecked by the Islamist invasion of Ahmed Gragn, and suddenly massive areas were depopulated. (It may pre-date that, but that's when the Portuguese showed up to save the Abyssinians.) The conflict with Somalis is when Ethiopia invaded and colonized what is now Eastern Ethiopia and what was western Somali tribelands in the late 1800s. The conflict between Amhara and Tigray is more complicated as these were in recent historical times the same people, like Spanish and Italians were both quite core parts of Rome, but of course being a brotherly people never stopped - or maybe even exacerbated - hatred of your neighbor. Most recently it is because the Tigrayan party ruled Ethiopia from 1990-2018 after they threw off the brutal Derg regime (which was largely non-ethnic and ruled by a guy from a tiny obscure tribe), during which they mildly misruled the country, but which gave all other ethnic groups the idea that Tigrayans made bank while they were scrapping around in the dirt. Which, from personally having been all over Tigray, is... really not the case. Some particular TPLF bigwigs made bank and now live in Washington DC, but Tigray in general is indistinguishable from the Amhara region. The Tigray and Amhara regions in general though are vastly wealthier and better developed than the rest of the country, besides Addis of course. And "vastly wealthier" also needs to be put in the context of one of the world's poorest countries.
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Oct 24, 2022 07:34
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i say swears online posted:poo poo's complicated! the cold war history of the country is still in recent memory and plays into the politics of today. both religion and ethnicity are important and ahmed identifies as a pentecostal oromo iirc. the tigray were the pro-US group and probably received canadian support while they ruled the country in the aftermath of their victory over the USSR-supported people's democratic republic. they lost power after nearly three decades in 2018. ahmed is the first oromo leader of ethiopia despite being of the largest ethnic group. wish i could say more but i'm not that educated on the subject Some mistakes here and in the next post. religion no, ethnicity yes, Ethiopians mobilize around ethnicity but religion doesn’t partically matter. , Eritrea defeated the derg but placed their protégés in power in Ethiopia so they could declare independence. Everything else here is correct. Saladman posted:Besides Eritrea, no one else is really involved, besides lackluster calls for peace etc. The global response to the war in Tigray is pretty much like the Indian and Chinese response to the war in Ukraine ("both sides should chill, aid should be allowed to reach, everyone has grievances..."). Ethiopia was given the Somali region in the 1950’s by Britain, it claimed it previously but never administered it, only conducted brutal raids to steal livestock. Amhara and Tigray haven’t been the same people for 3000 years, less Spanish and Italians and more Poles and Russians. The Derg wasn’t non-ethnic, it was viewed as oromo compared to the more Amhara dominated Ihapa (which was ironically less Amharic chavanist, it supported linguistic rights for all ethnicities), but was viewed as Amhara supremecist because it was centralist and Ethiopians associate centralism with Amharas. Also the TPLF did not “mildly misrule” the country, they stripped Ethiopia bare and conducted multiple genocides and rigged the only fair election in Ethiopian history, then invaded Somalia to get American weapons to shoot the protestors PawParole fucked around with this message at 03:52 on Oct 25, 2022 |
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Oct 25, 2022 03:44
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https://mobile.twitter.com/sajid_nadeem78/status/1584265512632037376 https://mobile.twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1584574352602718209 seems to be near the end of the war
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Oct 25, 2022 03:55
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Saladman posted:The conflict between Amhara and Tigray is more complicated as these were in recent historical times the same people, like Spanish and Italians were both quite core parts of Rome, but of course being a brotherly people never stopped - or maybe even exacerbated - hatred of your neighbor. Most recently it is because the Tigrayan party ruled Ethiopia from 1990-2018 after they threw off the brutal Derg regime (which was largely non-ethnic and ruled by a guy from a tiny obscure tribe), during which they mildly misruled the country, but which gave all other ethnic groups the idea that Tigrayans made bank while they were scrapping around in the dirt. Which, from personally having been all over Tigray, is... really not the case. Some particular TPLF bigwigs made bank and now live in Washington DC, but Tigray in general is indistinguishable from the Amhara region. The Tigray and Amhara regions in general though are vastly wealthier and better developed than the rest of the country, besides Addis of course. And "vastly wealthier" also needs to be put in the context of one of the world's poorest countries. I lived for months in Oromia and years in SNNPR, traveled around Amhara, and spent a couple weeks out west near Jimma, and I'd be hard pressed to say any region (except Addis ofc) was "vastly wealthier" than any of the others.
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Oct 25, 2022 04:09
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Also re: "mild misrule" of the Derg, isn't that then Ethiopia had its awful famines?
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Oct 25, 2022 16:33
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On another subject, I recently read Dancing in the Glory of Monsters by Jason Stearns and it really helped me understand both the civil war in Congo as well as the Rwandan genocide by putting them in a political/historical context. I'd love something similar for Ethiopia if anyone has suggestions.
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Oct 25, 2022 16:39
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PawParole posted:Ethiopia was given the Somali region in the 1950’s by Britain, it claimed it previously but never administered it, only conducted brutal raids to steal livestock. Amhara and Tigray haven’t been the same people for 3000 years, less Spanish and Italians and more Poles and Russians. I should have added the caveat "compared to the Derg" for their misrule. Admittedly not a high bar to clear. My perhaps wrong understanding of Tigrayan and Amharic as languages are that they split off somewhere around 1000 AD from Geez, although like Spanish Latin and Italian Latin I’m sure it was not so clear cut and there were always regional differences. A quick look seems to support that, but admittedly there is not a lot of research on it. I tried to get something in Geez translated a while ago and I could only find like three professors in all of N America, and zero in Europe, who specialized in Geez. Is there something suggesting it split off sooner? Languages can change really fast, see: English 1000 years ago. For Ogaden: it started to be conquered by Ethiopia under Menelik II in the late 1800s, although it took a lot longer than I had misremembered, and was ongoing up to the Italian invasion in the 1930s: https://www.jstor.org/stable/41966038. Did anything meaningfully change in 1950? I didn’t think anything ever was really by central Ethiopia past Harar besides raids and taxation, before or after the Brits. For development: yeah looks like I was wrong on that. It’s that Afar and Somali regions are badly underdeveloped. There’s not so much difference in the rest, especially not recently. The national bank has pretty good and updated stats - they’re pretty thorough. https://nbebank.com/wp-content/uploads/pdf/annualbulletin/Annual%20Report%202020-2021/2020-21%20Annual%20Report.pdf Other years here: https://nbe.gov.et/annual-report/ In the mid 2000s, eg 2007-8 report, Tigray was getting more investment than Amhara despite having a quarter of the population, and slightly more than Addis, and double that of Oromia despite having 1/7 the population. More recent years are less skewed but still certainly favorable for Tigray on a per capita basis. I also found a pretty solid review of health/development in The Lancet, which mirrors the economic reports reasonably closely. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02868-3/fulltext Gambella having the best development of any region, not counting the two city states, is surprising - although I guess it is also sparsely populated so maybe that helps for some reason. Tigray is only doing very slightly better than the other regions, so I guess all that extra investment money didn’t go to the right cause, or I misread it. But yeah, not as different as I thought at all. Everyone I’ve talked to about Ethiopia seems to have this idea that Tigray got a disproportionate share of the money. Maybe that prejudiced me to think it looked better, since it’s not like I was taking records for electricity and water and schooling, and I was only there for a month. Saladman fucked around with this message at 16:51 on Oct 25, 2022 |
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Oct 25, 2022 16:48
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https://mobile.twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1585030632971055105
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Oct 26, 2022 11:47
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https://mobile.twitter.com/feyiso_kedir/status/1585383231154982912
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Oct 26, 2022 22:32
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Thanks for posting updates.
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Oct 27, 2022 04:42
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Elyv posted:Thanks for posting updates. Same, it's appreciated
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Oct 27, 2022 13:35
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looks like TDF is trying to counterattack past couple days. Its the perfect time since ENDF/EDF are staggered over one road nearly 200km from Shire to Abiy Addi. Then 100km along two roads to friendly territory. If they fail its back into countryside for TDF since the offensive will be much less vulnerable once it connects with Eritreans to north or forces to south. Really not sure why ENDF/EDF decided to push for Mekelle before securing Rama and a much shorter supply route. If TDF succeeds I suspect it would be pretty bad for ENDF/EDF, since it would be a long retreat by one road surrounded by hostile countryside. And western offense is only one with real gains so far. EDF in north hit brick wall. Meanwhile Alamata and Korem are very vulnerable geographically from the north so easy to reverse absent a breakthrough. At which point ball would be in TDF's court. Lunge south again? Or try to knock out Eritrea so there will be no third major intervention? Eritrea seems to make more sense now since the Amharan militia have increased 10-fold. Eritrea mobilization-wise is limited by a small population. Also physically small, just 120km from Tigray to Asmara. TDF managed 310 km from Tigray in Gondor Offense and 390 km in Addis Offense In terms of advance on Asmara, major defensive positions would be on border of course. Then it is pretty open for most of the way, although with some semi-defensible spots. Looking at Google Maps both roads have very good defensive terrain about 15km south of Asmara. So getting to the gates of Asmara is pretty easy once you get through the border. Actually breaking through that rough terrain just to the south and then actually capturing Asmara (~1 million in metro area versus ~0.6 for Dessie/Kombolcha) would be the hard part.
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Oct 29, 2022 01:58
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https://mobile.twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1587882854498828288 Seems over
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Nov 2, 2022 20:10
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Whoa. Reading now. Twitter won't display the images without logging in so I jumped through the hoops so you don't have to:  
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Nov 2, 2022 20:16
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amhara nationalists are already yelling that “if we don’t get Raya and Wolkait we will rebel”. Abiy is hosed, make peace with Eritrea and give them Badme, Tigray rebels, make peace with Tigray and give them Wolkait Amhara rebels, make peace with Amhara and give them Shewa, Oromo rebels, make peace with Oromo and give them all of Haraghe, Somali rebels. https://mobile.twitter.com/HoMan99/status/1587866770731302913
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Nov 3, 2022 03:12
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https://mobile.twitter.com/MapEthiopia/status/1589323607221891072 one of the largest cities in oromia is under siege
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Nov 6, 2022 19:35
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https://mobile.twitter.com/sajid_nadeem78/status/1600168637511438337 https://mobile.twitter.com/sajid_nadeem78/status/1599859413074186240?cxt=HHwWgMDQ7Zzq67MsAAAA Hundreds of people killed in ethnic massacres in Wollega.
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Dec 8, 2022 06:16
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In better Ethiopia news, Mekelle has electricity again so life is presumably returning to normal there. I guess now that power is back, maybe regular Internet will return and we'll start getting information from the Tigrayan side of the last two years. No regular flights yet scheduled to Mekelle airport. I wasn't able to figure anything about how much if any of Tigray is still controlled by Eritrean forces. Power and water are fully back on in Lalibela too (since a couple months) and much of the municipal infrastructure has been fixed, after the brief TPLF takeover last Christmas.
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Dec 8, 2022 09:28
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https://mobile.twitter.com/xotrinx/status/1600559930871730176 Outrage and protests in Addis Ababa as Amhara students are told to sing the Oromo anthem.
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Dec 18, 2022 23:21
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 squad goals
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Dec 19, 2022 00:03
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i say swears online posted:
Oromia, Oromia, mother of great history Home of Oromos, hub of Gada system land of the law and morals, mother of the Sycamore congress Prosperous, fertile, and can grow all. We washed dirt of 100 years with blood. We raised your flag with priceless sacrifice. We are happy, so should you be; our self-governance is back. For peace, and democracy, respect for humanity For credible development and quick growth For love and unity with other nations For life guarantee, we have set a firm goal We have brought forth our forearms. Oromia, Thrive and Prosper PawParole fucked around with this message at 07:34 on Dec 20, 2022 |
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Dec 20, 2022 07:30
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https://twitter.com/sajid_nadeem78/status/1606338240084119552?cxt=HHwWgMC41cuH7sosAAAA ugh
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Dec 29, 2022 06:43
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PawParole posted:https://twitter.com/sajid_nadeem78/status/1606338240084119552?cxt=HHwWgMC41cuH7sosAAAA What is ሸኔ?
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Dec 29, 2022 08:55
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Fuschia tude posted:What is ሸኔ? i can't read Geez but The Ethiopian government refuses to call the OLA by its chosen name, instead referring to it as Shene (Oromo: Shanee, meaning. 'five) Why five I don't know PawParole fucked around with this message at 19:46 on Jan 4, 2023 |
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Jan 4, 2023 19:42
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Burkina Faso is really going to poo poo. On top of the increasing attacks on facilities and convoys (now including fatalities on both sides), word on the streetis that Wagner is successfully pushing local forces around enough and creating enough dis-information out there that the French have been asked to withdrawal their special forces and army out of Burkina Faso.
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Jan 23, 2023 09:15
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Electric Wrigglies posted:Burkina Faso is really going to poo poo. the french army has been doing way more harm than good there, it's not because of russian disinfo they're being kicked out but because they suck. imagine thinking that the people of burkina faso need russians to know that french neocolonialism is bad.
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Jan 24, 2023 08:37
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tristeham posted:the french army has been doing way more harm than good there, it's not because of russian disinfo they're being kicked out but because they suck. imagine thinking that the people of burkina faso need russians to know that french neocolonialism is bad.
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Jan 24, 2023 10:21
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tristeham posted:the french army has been doing way more harm than good there, it's not because of russian disinfo they're being kicked out but because they suck. imagine thinking that the people of burkina faso need russians to know that french neocolonialism is bad. The local forces on their own are getting pushed back steadily. Attacks on convoys have increased and local soldiers are getting ambushed foraging for food (one of my workmates lost his brother in such an attack). On my facebook are posts saying that the brand new 76 series Toyotas that are common to these attacks on Burkinabe forces is supplied by the French. It is a common local belief that Trump being illegally kicked from power in the US is a disaster for the Burkina people and part of the reason for the terrorist's success. Maybe it is true but the effectiveness of these attacks is why the government keeps getting changed and French influence is being reduced. If the French are supplying the Toyota's and arms for the fighters, I think it is a massive own goal. Toplowtech posted:I am french and i approve this message. Also why would a military-lead coup-government perceive the French army as a threat, i wonder? Part of the support of the current coup leader was him publicly hating on the French in line with the youth calls to get rid of the French. He rallied that support, the government changed and then he quietly kept receiving French support (as opposed to swapping the French out to Wagner support like has occurred in Mali). I am unsure whether the govt really wants the French support to go (it is mostly special forces guarding the Burkinabe govt itself - only small numbers really, even the drone support left awhile ago, maybe some funding as well).
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Jan 24, 2023 17:09
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