Stock Trading: try to reduce exposure to companies with CEOs who are on ketamine 24/7

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Ask/Tell > Business, Finance, and Careers > Stock Trading: try to reduce exposure to companies with CEOs who are on ketamine 24/7

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Hadlock: Nov 9, 2004

Why does everyone think inflation is going to drop to 3%? I thought we all agreed it was a supply side issue. You can't invent more people to work in factories

# ? Jan 24, 2023 11:06

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# ? Jun 3, 2024 18:33

Agronox: Feb 4, 2005

back in last June, Agronox posted:

Rummaging through the dumpster and nibbling on some SOHO preferreds

Happy result on this one. Southerly is a small hotel REIT in the Southeast; their capital structure was pretty much blown up as a result of covid and they had their dividends suspended since March 2020.

Until today!

Southerly Hotels 8-K posted:

On January 24, 2023, Sotherly Hotels Inc., a Maryland corporation (the �Company�) and the sole general partner of Sotherly Hotels LP, a Delaware limited partnership, issued a press release (the �Press Release�) announcing the reinstatement of quarterly dividends on the Company's preferred stock. A copy of the Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated by reference herein.

# ? Jan 24, 2023 14:53

Baddog: May 12, 2001

Hadlock posted:

Why does everyone think inflation is going to drop to 3%? I thought we all agreed it was a supply side issue. You can't invent more people to work in factories

It's been running under 3% for the past six months. Well under. As soon as the big months from last year age off, the YoY number will come way down. At this rate, it will be 2% in July. People are anticipating that there is going to be a spike at some point though to keep it higher. But the numbers will have to turn very bad again, in consecutive months, for it to be 4% in july.

Think the fed is being reactionary to not have pivoted already. They really don't want to move until the core PCE YoY calculation breaches 2?? Well, I guess at a min they probably won't move until unemployment starts ticking up faster.

Baddog fucked around with this message at 15:39 on Jan 24, 2023

# ? Jan 24, 2023 14:57

ranbo das: Oct 16, 2013

Hadlock posted:

Why does everyone think inflation is going to drop to 3%? I thought we all agreed it was a supply side issue. You can't invent more people to work in factories

Over the last 6 months, inflation has been 2-3% annualized. Seems like we're already mostly there.

Kinda surprised they haven't backed off the rate raises yet but given the difficulty they have in raising them politically, I think they're trying to load their tank up now while they have the chance to have more ammo in the future.

ranbo das fucked around with this message at 15:06 on Jan 24, 2023

# ? Jan 24, 2023 15:04

LLCoolJD: Dec 8, 2007; Musk threatens the inorganic promotion of left-wing ideology that had been taking place on the platform

Block me for being an unironic DeSantis fan, too!

Rates are a major factor but surely COVID supply chain issues and economic war with BRICS are also headwinds.

# ? Jan 24, 2023 15:27

Artonos: Dec 3, 2018

China is easing their COVID policies at the moment and there has been some time for supply chains to disentangle from Russia too.

The Fed is almost certainly going to do 25 bps raise and then the most likely thing imo is they hold rates steady until the summer at least.

The energy market seems decently stable and that helps a lot.

# ? Jan 24, 2023 15:36

Baddog: May 12, 2001

Things are definitely starting to feel rosier. Of course I felt that way in August too.

Still have a decent whack of cash/equivalents. I guess rates are still in contractionary territory and look to be there for awhile, even though we are on the edge of a recession. So prolly will have a chance to get it in lower than here!

# ? Jan 24, 2023 15:54

pseudanonymous: Aug 30, 2008; When you make the second entry and the debits and credits balance, and you blow them to hell.

Hadlock posted:

Why does everyone think inflation is going to drop to 3%? I thought we all agreed it was a supply side issue. You can't invent more people to work in factories

I don�t agree it�s a supply side issue. A significant factor has been arbitrary price increases justified by inflation and effective because of market concentration and collusion.

# ? Jan 24, 2023 16:19

Hadlock: Nov 9, 2004

pseudanonymous posted:

I don’t agree it’s a supply side issue. A significant factor has been arbitrary price increases justified by inflation and effective because of market concentration and collusion.

Can you go into more detail on this

# ? Jan 24, 2023 18:52

Shear Modulus: Jun 9, 2010

The fed has said a lot while raising rates about how they want unemployment to be higher than it has been but the official numbers have barely budged. If inflation does fall back to 2-3% they could easily say that it's a mirage until more people are out on the street

# ? Jan 24, 2023 19:09

Leperflesh: May 17, 2007

A huge component of inflation has been spiked oil prices, and oil prices have relaxed. The cost of a container ship from china to the us west coast also had spiked tremendously and that has also fallen way way back down towards a "normal." High interest rates can take a long time to affect e.g. business spending but it has crushed the new housing starts market immediately. Supply-side-driven inflation may not be super responsive to higher interest rates, but the above factors still matter a lot.

# ? Jan 24, 2023 19:16

Toalpaz: Mar 20, 2012; Peace through overwhelming determination

Does this mean earnings will be good or bad

# ? Jan 24, 2023 19:38

pseudanonymous: Aug 30, 2008; When you make the second entry and the debits and credits balance, and you blow them to hell.

Toalpaz posted:

Does this mean earnings will be good or bad

Yes.

# ? Jan 24, 2023 19:43

Shear Modulus: Jun 9, 2010

Hadlock posted:

Can you go into more detail on this

CEOs bragging to investors in earnings calls about how they used inflation headlines as an excuse to jack up prices has been very commonplace.

https://theintercept.com/2022/09/28/inflation-prices-investors-iron-mountain/

quote:

Iron Mountain�s CFO Barry A. Hytinen also said on an earnings call this past April that �we do have very strong pricing power� and for the company, inflation is �actually a net positive.�

At the September 20 investor event, Meaney explained that �where we�ve had inflation running at fairly rapid rates � we�re able to price ahead of inflation� � that is, increase its prices at a greater rate than the high recent rates of inflation. As Meaney put it, raising prices �obviously covers our increased costs, but � a lot of that flows down to the bottom line.� He also noted that this didn�t just apply to his company: �People are seeing what FedEx, UPS, and others are having to do to actually manage their business and pass on that inflation.�

Later in the event, in response to a question from a JPMorgan Chase analyst, Meaney explained that the company had �been getting north of 200 basis points of price increase� � i.e., 2 percent � in the low inflation environment of the mid-2010s. But, he added, he had then hoped for inflation because �pricing for us is actually slightly accretive on the margin� with higher inflation.

Interestingly, both Meaney and Hytinen expressed momentary regret that what was good for Iron Mountain might be bad for everyone in general. �I wish I didn�t do such a good dance,� Meaney said last week, �but that�s more on a personal basis than on a business model.�

Hytinen told earnings call participants that �we feel for folks� regarding inflation, but �we have a high gross margin business, so it naturally expands the margins of the business.�

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/apr/27/inflation-corporate-america-increased-prices-profits

quote:

The Guardian�s findings are in line with recent US commerce department data that shows corporate profits rose 35% during the last year and are at their highest level since 1950. Inflation, meanwhile, rose to 8.5% year over year in March.

The Guardian�s analysis is the first to take a granular look at a cross-section of companies across a range of industries. It compared the most recent quarter�s profits to the same quarter two years prior, pre-pandemic. Price increases were obtained by checking earnings reports, though those often lacked specifics.

The data is not intended to be definitive, but does show how a wide sample of companies have raised prices even as profits jumped. In earnings call after earnings call, executives made no secret of their strategies.

As gas prices soared, Chevron�s 240% profit spike was part of �the best two quarters the company has ever seen�, prompting a dividend increase and assurances it would keep production low to maintain high prices.

Steel Dynamics profits increased 809%. The company was �not materially affected by inflation� as higher prices �exceeded� increased supply chain costs.

Fertilizer giant Nutrien�s profits shot up by about $1.2bn on �higher selling prices [that] more than offset higher raw material costs and lower sales volume�.

Nike�s 53% profit increase driven by higher prices was only �partially offset� by supply chain and inflationary cost increases.

Keurig-Dr Pepper�s �significant pricing actions� and productivity outpaced inflationary costs, leading to an 83% profit jump.

The analysis found commodity companies trading in oil, timber, rubber, meat, wheat, steel and mining recorded the highest profit increases, while restaurants and retailers saw comparatively lower improvements, or losses. Commodity price spikes reverberate down the supply chain, eventually hitting consumers, noted Martin Schmalz, an Oxford University economist.

The Guardian�s data, he added, objectively shows a massive �transfer of wealth� from consumers, who pay higher prices, to shareholders and investment firms that reap the benefits.

https://abc7news.com/corporations-and-inflation-greedflation-profiteering-price-gouging/12120449/

quote:

The chief financial officer of 3M said during his earnings call that the "team did an amazing job" driving higher prices, which have "more than offset the amount of inflation."

3M has more than two dozen lines of products including adhesives and aftermarket auto parts.

Toll Brothers is one of the largest homebuilders in the United States, with luxury homes currently being sold in Alameda and Contra Costa counties.

Its chief executive officer said, "We have more than exceeded cost increases through our pricing over the last 18 months."

He went on to say they "are still comfortable with our ability to drive that gross margin higher."

"We are seeing CEOs being really, really clear that they're using the cover of inflation to jack up prices on consumers," Mabud said.

even boring-rear end head in the sand news outlets like NPR report on it, in the very first result that came up when i typed "corporate price gouging" into google

https://www.npr.org/2022/09/19/1123926748/why-some-blame-record-corporate-profits-for-high-prices

quote:

VANEK SMITH: Mabud has listened to hundreds of corporate earnings calls and says CEOs talk openly about this. She points to grocery giant Kroger, which has seen billions in profits over the last couple years. On a recent call with investors, the CEO said the plan is to keep raising prices.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

RODNEY MCMULLEN: We view a little bit of inflation as always good in our business, and we would expect to be able to pass that through.

VANEK SMITH: AutoZone saw earnings jump 13%. Here's the CFO.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

JAMERE JACKSON: And as I've said before, you know, inflation has been a little bit of our friend in terms of what we see in terms of retail pricing.

VANEK SMITH: Hostess has seen profits jump more than 12%. The CEO had this to say.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

ANDY CALLAHAN: We're also seeing the consumers experience a lot of disruption. And they haven't fully recognized there were absorbed pricing.

VANEK SMITH: Et tu, Twinkie?

Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 03:59 on Jan 25, 2023

# ? Jan 25, 2023 03:50

MetaJew: Apr 14, 2006; Gather round, one and all, and thrill to my turgid tales of underwhelming misadventure!

Hadlock playing dumb or really hasn't been paying attention to the headlines the last year?

# ? Jan 25, 2023 04:15

xgalaxy: Jan 27, 2004; i write code

😂😂😂 MSFT

# ? Jan 25, 2023 04:30

Hadlock: Nov 9, 2004

MetaJew posted:

Hadlock playing dumb or really hasn't been paying attention to the headlines the last year?

I checked out in September, just now coming up for air

# ? Jan 25, 2023 06:47

New Found Power: Aug 18, 2005; As in atom bomb... As in nuclear fission.. As in the end of the world.

Shear Modulus posted:

No promising AI company is going to be raising money from anyone but private investors like VCs, institutional investors, or already-existing trillion dollar companies like microsoft and google.

Don't forget how they bought github and immediately used all the code on it to train a code generation bot.

can't wait for the plagiarism machine to be sued out of existence

# ? Jan 25, 2023 11:08

DeadFatDuckFat: Oct 29, 2012; This avatar brought to you by the 'save our dead gay forums' foundation.

Added some AAL today before tomorrow's earnings as just kind of a gamble that I'd be willing to hold on to long term anyways if things go south

# ? Jan 25, 2023 21:12

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

Sold some puts near the money this week to benefit from earnings volatility on VZ and INTC. Pretty boring dividend stocks that I don't expect to drop much more but wouldn't mind owning if they did.

# ? Jan 26, 2023 15:06

Syrinxx: Mar 28, 2002; Death is whimsical today

Took gains in $T yesterday, now I need a cool new dividend stonk :smugjones:

# ? Jan 26, 2023 17:22

drk: Jan 16, 2005

Subvisual Haze posted:

Sold some puts near the money this week to benefit from earnings volatility on VZ and INTC. Pretty boring dividend stocks that I don't expect to drop much more but wouldn't mind owning if they did.

Good news, INTC is down nearly 10% AH

# ? Jan 27, 2023 01:20

BlackMK4: Aug 23, 2006; wat.; Megamarm

Their guidance is fuk

# ? Jan 27, 2023 01:40

Baddog: May 12, 2001

drk posted:

Good news, INTC is down nearly 10% AH

Got drat. Good news is this is probably just intel continuing to suck (beating suck expectations!). Not the recession upon us. Seagate beat pretty well yesterday!

https://twitter.com/ecommerceshares/status/1618765964123983873?t=8rG9tJmaukKkebn0Sabcbw&s=19

# ? Jan 27, 2023 02:01

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

"Don't worry, it'll revert to the mean" - increasingly nervous man (myself)

# ? Jan 27, 2023 02:28

Shear Modulus: Jun 9, 2010

Impressive for intel to poo poo the bed like this just a few months after being given a blank check from the government

# ? Jan 27, 2023 02:42

Toalpaz: Mar 20, 2012; Peace through overwhelming determination

AMD AMD ADM

# ? Jan 27, 2023 03:54

Hadlock: Nov 9, 2004

Since I was so right about Intel, looking forward to being so right about SoFi someday, too :allears:

# ? Jan 27, 2023 03:59

Gaius Marius: Oct 9, 2012

Hadlock posted:

Since I was so right about Intel, looking forward to being so right about SoFi someday, too

Keep dreamin' homie

# ? Jan 27, 2023 04:34

DoubleT2172: Sep 24, 2007

Hadlock posted:

Since I was so right about Intel, looking forward to being so right about SoFi someday, too

When do you cut your losses with SOFI?

# ? Jan 27, 2023 04:54

movax: Aug 30, 2008

Shear Modulus posted:

Impressive for intel to poo poo the bed like this just a few months after being given a blank check from the government

Well to be fair, they have been making GBS threads the bed for awhile...

I don't even know whether to consider adding to my position and just giving it 5+ years... too big to fail and all that but man they've had a poo poo run of executive leadership. It's pretty sad.

# ? Jan 27, 2023 04:59

Splinter: Jul 4, 2003; Cowabunga!

DoubleT2172 posted:

When do you cut your losses with SOFI?

Just keep averaging down until the stock is delisted

# ? Jan 27, 2023 05:25

MetaJew: Apr 14, 2006; Gather round, one and all, and thrill to my turgid tales of underwhelming misadventure!

movax posted:

Well to be fair, they have been making GBS threads the bed for awhile...

I don't even know whether to consider adding to my position and just giving it 5+ years... too big to fail and all that but man they've had a poo poo run of executive leadership. It's pretty sad.

If you haven't read the SEC filing/offer letter for Murthy, it's a trip. That dude FLEECED Intel and then drove it into the ground.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/50863/000005086316000105/ex101412262015q4.htm

Edit: I only recently learned from some coworkers that Intel thought they were poaching him from Qualcomm when he was apparently about to get fired.

MetaJew fucked around with this message at 06:18 on Jan 27, 2023

# ? Jan 27, 2023 06:05

pmchem: Jan 22, 2010

MetaJew posted:

If you haven't read the SEC filing/offer letter for Murthy, it's a trip. That dude FLEECED Intel and then drove it into the ground.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/50863/000005086316000105/ex101412262015q4.htm

Edit: I only recently learned from some coworkers that Intel thought they were poaching him from Qualcomm when he was apparently about to get fired.

dude looks like he knew he fleeced them, too:

# ? Jan 27, 2023 14:40

Space Fish: Oct 14, 2008; The original Big Tuna.

Uhhh so LCID and GME are having a fun Friday

# ? Jan 27, 2023 19:50

Hadlock: Nov 9, 2004

Splinter posted:

Just keep averaging down until the stock is delisted

New thread title?

# ? Jan 27, 2023 20:26

Baddog: May 12, 2001

Baddog posted:

For y'alls amusement, I'm currently stuck in a short put position in IRBT. Decent stack of Jan 55p.

I definitely did not think that amazon buying what is now a commodity robot vacuum company would be an issue for the FTC. The market is irobot vs about 50 chinese knockoff competitors - even shark is owned by a chinese "private capital" company now. I suppose samsung and LG have devices as well, which sell better in asia. Dyson has a robot vacuum. Pretty fragmented market. But every day the FTC doesn't announce a decision has become another day that the stock melts down (while ONEM goes up, apparently everyone thinks the FTC is ok with amazon having more medical data).

I did try to capitulate this month, but no volume to get out, and I didn't want to just accept the market makers ask (although it looks like I should have now!)

I'm pretty much just resigned to riding it out at this point - although if the FTC does wake up and nix the deal before end of year, its going to be a big big loss. But I think this thing will keep dragging out for awhile longer. The ATVI announcement took almost 10 months, this has only been around 5.

The breakup fee is 100M (which doesn't have to be paid until aug '23), about 4 points on the stock. But the 3Q results were *insanely* bad, so the floor is perhaps down in the low 30s now. Figuring a possible floor at 33 (with the breakup fee), and the stock trading at 47, consensus seems to be that the chance of the deal happening now is down to about 50/50 (the acquisition price is 61).

And I do still think the privacy concerns are massively overblown. There are publicly available data sets on houses that amazon can just merge into their customer data, (and I'm sure they already have). They don't need to buy roomba to get that data. Is information on when people vacuum what the FTC is concerned about? Or is it having the marketing muscle to elbow out a bunch of roomba knockoffs in a crowded marketplace? But weighed against that, the current head of the FTC did make her reputation with a paper arguing that Amazon needs to be broken up. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-31/ftc-s-antitrust-probe-of-amazon-picks-up-speed-under-new-boss?leadSource=uverify%20wall And Biden has directed the FTC and DOJ to basically come down on "big tech". https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing...erican-economy/

So follow along, I'll post the end pain results when I close it out. Or if you think the odds are better than what the market currently thinks, get in here with me! I still think the deal is only about 25% or less to get scuttled, but I was trying to capitulate at implied odds of about 33%, just because the big downside had become a little too real (and more quickly than I thought it was going to be priced in).

Closed this out finally last week. Eyeballing getting back in, the odds are priced so high that the deal won't go through (>50% now that it fails), doesn't make sense to me. But its still just too painful. I think the price to get out didn't get much worse from when I made this post (underlying dropped from 47 to 46, but extrinsic disappeared), but was gut wrenching the whole way. Stock was down to 45 today.

10x loss on the initial bet, gently caress.

# ? Jan 27, 2023 20:27

John F Bennett: Jan 30, 2013; I always wear my wedding ring. It's my trademark.

About 3 weeks ago, I bought some thousands of euro's worth of C3.AI. It has since then risen close to 60% and I'm not sure what to do with this stock now! It was supposed to be a long-term buy, but this thing is rising out of control and I'm not sure why it's doing it this fast.

I assume it's because all of the recent AI talk.

# ? Jan 27, 2023 22:45

Shear Modulus: Jun 9, 2010

algos seeing "AI" in a bunch of headlines and going to buy that ticker symbol

# ? Jan 27, 2023 22:54

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# ? Jun 3, 2024 18:33

Leperflesh: May 17, 2007

John F Bennett posted:

About 3 weeks ago, I bought some thousands of euro's worth of C3.AI. It has since then risen close to 60% and I'm not sure what to do with this stock now! It was supposed to be a long-term buy, but this thing is rising out of control and I'm not sure why it's doing it this fast.

I assume it's because all of the recent AI talk.

It doesn't have to be an all or nothing thing. If your position size is now uncomfortable, sell some of it. If you believe in the stock long-term and don't think the current high is the all-time high, and also don't see a better opportunity for the rest, retain some of the shares.

# ? Jan 27, 2023 23:00

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Ask/Tell > Business, Finance, and Careers > Stock Trading: try to reduce exposure to companies with CEOs who are on ketamine 24/7

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