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Why does everyone think inflation is going to drop to 3%? I thought we all agreed it was a supply side issue. You can't invent more people to work in factories
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# ? Jan 24, 2023 11:06 |
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# ? Jun 5, 2024 04:44 |
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back in last June, Agronox posted:Rummaging through the dumpster and nibbling on some SOHO preferreds Happy result on this one. Southerly is a small hotel REIT in the Southeast; their capital structure was pretty much blown up as a result of covid and they had their dividends suspended since March 2020. Until today! Southerly Hotels 8-K posted:On January 24, 2023, Sotherly Hotels Inc., a Maryland corporation (the “Company”) and the sole general partner of Sotherly Hotels LP, a Delaware limited partnership, issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing the reinstatement of quarterly dividends on the Company's preferred stock. A copy of the Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated by reference herein.
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# ? Jan 24, 2023 14:53 |
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Hadlock posted:Why does everyone think inflation is going to drop to 3%? I thought we all agreed it was a supply side issue. You can't invent more people to work in factories It's been running under 3% for the past six months. Well under. As soon as the big months from last year age off, the YoY number will come way down. At this rate, it will be 2% in July. People are anticipating that there is going to be a spike at some point though to keep it higher. But the numbers will have to turn very bad again, in consecutive months, for it to be 4% in july. Think the fed is being reactionary to not have pivoted already. They really don't want to move until the core PCE YoY calculation breaches 2?? Well, I guess at a min they probably won't move until unemployment starts ticking up faster. Baddog fucked around with this message at 15:39 on Jan 24, 2023 |
# ? Jan 24, 2023 14:57 |
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Hadlock posted:Why does everyone think inflation is going to drop to 3%? I thought we all agreed it was a supply side issue. You can't invent more people to work in factories Over the last 6 months, inflation has been 2-3% annualized. Seems like we're already mostly there. Kinda surprised they haven't backed off the rate raises yet but given the difficulty they have in raising them politically, I think they're trying to load their tank up now while they have the chance to have more ammo in the future. ranbo das fucked around with this message at 15:06 on Jan 24, 2023 |
# ? Jan 24, 2023 15:04 |
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Rates are a major factor but surely COVID supply chain issues and economic war with BRICS are also headwinds.
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# ? Jan 24, 2023 15:27 |
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China is easing their COVID policies at the moment and there has been some time for supply chains to disentangle from Russia too. The Fed is almost certainly going to do 25 bps raise and then the most likely thing imo is they hold rates steady until the summer at least. The energy market seems decently stable and that helps a lot.
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# ? Jan 24, 2023 15:36 |
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Things are definitely starting to feel rosier. Of course I felt that way in August too. Still have a decent whack of cash/equivalents. I guess rates are still in contractionary territory and look to be there for awhile, even though we are on the edge of a recession. So prolly will have a chance to get it in lower than here!
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# ? Jan 24, 2023 15:54 |
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Hadlock posted:Why does everyone think inflation is going to drop to 3%? I thought we all agreed it was a supply side issue. You can't invent more people to work in factories I don’t agree it’s a supply side issue. A significant factor has been arbitrary price increases justified by inflation and effective because of market concentration and collusion.
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# ? Jan 24, 2023 16:19 |
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pseudanonymous posted:I don’t agree it’s a supply side issue. A significant factor has been arbitrary price increases justified by inflation and effective because of market concentration and collusion. Can you go into more detail on this
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# ? Jan 24, 2023 18:52 |
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The fed has said a lot while raising rates about how they want unemployment to be higher than it has been but the official numbers have barely budged. If inflation does fall back to 2-3% they could easily say that it's a mirage until more people are out on the street
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# ? Jan 24, 2023 19:09 |
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A huge component of inflation has been spiked oil prices, and oil prices have relaxed. The cost of a container ship from china to the us west coast also had spiked tremendously and that has also fallen way way back down towards a "normal." High interest rates can take a long time to affect e.g. business spending but it has crushed the new housing starts market immediately. Supply-side-driven inflation may not be super responsive to higher interest rates, but the above factors still matter a lot.
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# ? Jan 24, 2023 19:16 |
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Does this mean earnings will be good or bad
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# ? Jan 24, 2023 19:38 |
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Toalpaz posted:Does this mean earnings will be good or bad Yes.
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# ? Jan 24, 2023 19:43 |
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Hadlock posted:Can you go into more detail on this CEOs bragging to investors in earnings calls about how they used inflation headlines as an excuse to jack up prices has been very commonplace. https://theintercept.com/2022/09/28/inflation-prices-investors-iron-mountain/ quote:Iron Mountain’s CFO Barry A. Hytinen also said on an earnings call this past April that “we do have very strong pricing power” and for the company, inflation is “actually a net positive.” https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/apr/27/inflation-corporate-america-increased-prices-profits quote:The Guardian’s findings are in line with recent US commerce department data that shows corporate profits rose 35% during the last year and are at their highest level since 1950. Inflation, meanwhile, rose to 8.5% year over year in March. https://abc7news.com/corporations-and-inflation-greedflation-profiteering-price-gouging/12120449/ quote:The chief financial officer of 3M said during his earnings call that the "team did an amazing job" driving higher prices, which have "more than offset the amount of inflation." even boring-rear end head in the sand news outlets like NPR report on it, in the very first result that came up when i typed "corporate price gouging" into google https://www.npr.org/2022/09/19/1123926748/why-some-blame-record-corporate-profits-for-high-prices quote:VANEK SMITH: Mabud has listened to hundreds of corporate earnings calls and says CEOs talk openly about this. She points to grocery giant Kroger, which has seen billions in profits over the last couple years. On a recent call with investors, the CEO said the plan is to keep raising prices. Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 03:59 on Jan 25, 2023 |
# ? Jan 25, 2023 03:50 |
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Hadlock playing dumb or really hasn't been paying attention to the headlines the last year?
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# ? Jan 25, 2023 04:15 |
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😂😂😂 MSFT
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# ? Jan 25, 2023 04:30 |
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MetaJew posted:Hadlock playing dumb or really hasn't been paying attention to the headlines the last year? I checked out in September, just now coming up for air
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# ? Jan 25, 2023 06:47 |
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Shear Modulus posted:No promising AI company is going to be raising money from anyone but private investors like VCs, institutional investors, or already-existing trillion dollar companies like microsoft and google. can't wait for the plagiarism machine to be sued out of existence
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# ? Jan 25, 2023 11:08 |
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Added some AAL today before tomorrow's earnings as just kind of a gamble that I'd be willing to hold on to long term anyways if things go south
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# ? Jan 25, 2023 21:12 |
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Sold some puts near the money this week to benefit from earnings volatility on VZ and INTC. Pretty boring dividend stocks that I don't expect to drop much more but wouldn't mind owning if they did.
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# ? Jan 26, 2023 15:06 |
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Took gains in $T yesterday, now I need a cool new dividend stonk
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# ? Jan 26, 2023 17:22 |
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Subvisual Haze posted:Sold some puts near the money this week to benefit from earnings volatility on VZ and INTC. Pretty boring dividend stocks that I don't expect to drop much more but wouldn't mind owning if they did. Good news, INTC is down nearly 10% AH
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# ? Jan 27, 2023 01:20 |
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Their guidance is fuk
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# ? Jan 27, 2023 01:40 |
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drk posted:Good news, INTC is down nearly 10% AH Got drat. Good news is this is probably just intel continuing to suck (beating suck expectations!). Not the recession upon us. Seagate beat pretty well yesterday! https://twitter.com/ecommerceshares/status/1618765964123983873?t=8rG9tJmaukKkebn0Sabcbw&s=19
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# ? Jan 27, 2023 02:01 |
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"Don't worry, it'll revert to the mean" - increasingly nervous man (myself)
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# ? Jan 27, 2023 02:28 |
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Impressive for intel to poo poo the bed like this just a few months after being given a blank check from the government
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# ? Jan 27, 2023 02:42 |
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AMD AMD ADM
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# ? Jan 27, 2023 03:54 |
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Since I was so right about Intel, looking forward to being so right about SoFi someday, too
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# ? Jan 27, 2023 03:59 |
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Hadlock posted:Since I was so right about Intel, looking forward to being so right about SoFi someday, too Keep dreamin' homie
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# ? Jan 27, 2023 04:34 |
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Hadlock posted:Since I was so right about Intel, looking forward to being so right about SoFi someday, too When do you cut your losses with SOFI?
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# ? Jan 27, 2023 04:54 |
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Shear Modulus posted:Impressive for intel to poo poo the bed like this just a few months after being given a blank check from the government Well to be fair, they have been making GBS threads the bed for awhile... I don't even know whether to consider adding to my position and just giving it 5+ years... too big to fail and all that but man they've had a poo poo run of executive leadership. It's pretty sad.
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# ? Jan 27, 2023 04:59 |
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DoubleT2172 posted:When do you cut your losses with SOFI? Just keep averaging down until the stock is delisted
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# ? Jan 27, 2023 05:25 |
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movax posted:Well to be fair, they have been making GBS threads the bed for awhile... If you haven't read the SEC filing/offer letter for Murthy, it's a trip. That dude FLEECED Intel and then drove it into the ground. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/50863/000005086316000105/ex101412262015q4.htm Edit: I only recently learned from some coworkers that Intel thought they were poaching him from Qualcomm when he was apparently about to get fired. MetaJew fucked around with this message at 06:18 on Jan 27, 2023 |
# ? Jan 27, 2023 06:05 |
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MetaJew posted:If you haven't read the SEC filing/offer letter for Murthy, it's a trip. That dude FLEECED Intel and then drove it into the ground. dude looks like he knew he fleeced them, too:
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# ? Jan 27, 2023 14:40 |
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Uhhh so LCID and GME are having a fun Friday
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# ? Jan 27, 2023 19:50 |
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Splinter posted:Just keep averaging down until the stock is delisted New thread title?
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# ? Jan 27, 2023 20:26 |
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Baddog posted:For y'alls amusement, I'm currently stuck in a short put position in IRBT. Decent stack of Jan 55p. Closed this out finally last week. Eyeballing getting back in, the odds are priced so high that the deal won't go through (>50% now that it fails), doesn't make sense to me. But its still just too painful. I think the price to get out didn't get much worse from when I made this post (underlying dropped from 47 to 46, but extrinsic disappeared), but was gut wrenching the whole way. Stock was down to 45 today. 10x loss on the initial bet, gently caress.
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# ? Jan 27, 2023 20:27 |
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About 3 weeks ago, I bought some thousands of euro's worth of C3.AI. It has since then risen close to 60% and I'm not sure what to do with this stock now! It was supposed to be a long-term buy, but this thing is rising out of control and I'm not sure why it's doing it this fast. I assume it's because all of the recent AI talk.
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# ? Jan 27, 2023 22:45 |
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algos seeing "AI" in a bunch of headlines and going to buy that ticker symbol
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# ? Jan 27, 2023 22:54 |
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# ? Jun 5, 2024 04:44 |
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John F Bennett posted:About 3 weeks ago, I bought some thousands of euro's worth of C3.AI. It has since then risen close to 60% and I'm not sure what to do with this stock now! It was supposed to be a long-term buy, but this thing is rising out of control and I'm not sure why it's doing it this fast. It doesn't have to be an all or nothing thing. If your position size is now uncomfortable, sell some of it. If you believe in the stock long-term and don't think the current high is the all-time high, and also don't see a better opportunity for the rest, retain some of the shares.
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# ? Jan 27, 2023 23:00 |