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What is the most powerful flying bug? This poll is closed. |
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|---|---|---|---|
| 🦋 |
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15 | 3.71% |
| 🦇 |
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115 | 28.47% |
| 🪰 |
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12 | 2.97% |
| 🐦 |
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67 | 16.58% |
| dragonfly |
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94 | 23.27% |
| 🦟 |
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14 | 3.47% |
| 🐝 |
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87 | 21.53% |
| Total: | 404 votes | ||
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mlmp08 posted:I think it’s entirely possible that Russia announced they wanted to mobilize 300,000, they then announced they mobilized about 300,000, and that the actual number was also about 300,000. That’s why I wondered whether Ardennes just thinks Russia was using deception or a different reason they missed the stated number by 50,000. they might have only done 300k and the extra 50 are trained bears
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Jan 31, 2023 14:28
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speng31b posted:they might have only done 300k and the extra 50 are trained bears you ever see 50,000 bears on unicycles rolling across the plains?
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Jan 31, 2023 14:30
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V. Illych L. posted:look it had lots of game-theoretical calculations and things which i cannot remember nor retrace, but the upshot was that this capacity is seen as beneficial somehow (majorian might be able to elaborate) - the reduced distance for nuclear weapons stationed in eastern ukraine would've been a major concern for russia as well. it might've been because it's a game of potential cost management, so if you can realise a proportion of cost very quickly it changes the calculation in your favour, but this is me mostly guessing. If you look of it from the standpoint of leverage it makes sense, that you would to force your opponent to spread out and have to defend more and more of its critical infrastructure from a potential strike. Your probably not going to actually do it, but your opponent has to act like you will because there is so much on the line. Eastern Ukraine would allow the US to not only hit Moscow but Elgin and other infrastructure far more easily, while Finland would allow them to hit Murmansk/St.Petersburg more easily. The Russians couldn't wait until the Ukrainians started to be more seriously armed by the West that a decapitation wouldn't have been possible but obviously they greatly misjudged what was occurring and needed a far larger force. As far as Finland, Erdogan knows how much the US wants it because they need it as a key portion of leverage on the Russians and he is milking it for all that its worth. He is just making it more and more costs/difficult to get it because there is a laundry list of things he wants (probably everything from F-35s to loans to re-election etc etc).
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Jan 31, 2023 14:30
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speng31b posted:they might have only done 300k and the extra 50 are trained bears did you know that there was a bear that used to serve with the Polish army
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Jan 31, 2023 14:32
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Ardennes posted:If you look of it from the standpoint of leverage it makes sense, that you would to force your opponent to spread out and have to defend more and more of its critical infrastructure from a potential strike. Your probably not going to actually do it, but your opponent has to act like you will because there is so much on the line. Eastern Ukraine would allow the US to not only hit Moscow but Elgin and other infrastructure far more easily, while Finland would allow them to hit Murmansk/St.Petersburg more easily. right, the americans really do want finland whereas sweden's a much lower priority - so where erdogan can bar sweden for as long as he pleases and the americans aren't going to do much of anything about it, it's reasonable to assume that incentives will be put into place to encourage turkey to let finland in. for a few years in my youth i was heavily involved in the ICAN campaign for nuclear disarmament. at that time i thought i understood a lot of the nuclear strategy stuff, but i evidently either didn't, or i've forgotten more than i would've expected
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Jan 31, 2023 14:37
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gradenko_2000 posted:did you know that there was a bear that used to serve with the Polish army polish bears don’t count
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Jan 31, 2023 14:37
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V. Illych L. posted:look it had lots of game-theoretical calculations and things which i cannot remember nor retrace, but the upshot was that this capacity is seen as beneficial somehow (majorian might be able to elaborate) - the reduced distance for nuclear weapons stationed in eastern ukraine would've been a major concern for russia as well. it might've been because it's a game of potential cost management, so if you can realise a proportion of cost very quickly it changes the calculation in your favour, but this is me mostly guessing. i'm sure that a bunch of overpaid failkids have spent countless hours coming up with justifications for why the us has to station weapons in every single corner of the world, but looking at this at face value its still stupid as poo poo if you think about it even medium hard
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Jan 31, 2023 14:39
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V. Illych L. posted:right, the americans really do want finland whereas sweden's a much lower priority - so where erdogan can bar sweden for as long as he pleases and the americans aren't going to do much of anything about it, it's reasonable to assume that incentives will be put into place to encourage turkey to let finland in. finlands folding https://twitter.com/trtworldnow/status/1620293296634331136 swedens making GBS threads https://twitter.com/mhmtslmz/status/1620157243256897538 will sanna learn shahadah? maybe ☝️ 
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Jan 31, 2023 14:44
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V. Illych L. posted:right, the americans really do want finland whereas sweden's a much lower priority - so where erdogan can bar sweden for as long as he pleases and the americans aren't going to do much of anything about it, it's reasonable to assume that incentives will be put into place to encourage turkey to let finland in. Well, it is yes and no as far as the US goes, since there is plenty of tension between Ankara and Washington at the moment. The F-35 was also blocked in the beginning because Turkey bought S-400 systems and they don't want data from the interaction of the two making it to Moscow. Also, you have the issue of Greece now getting F-35s on top of that. On the other hand, Erdogan is keeping the game going by still floating Finland out there and it makes sense he would want to keep that leverage at least until the election. That said, I wouldn't put it past Erdogan to keep doing a "one more thing..." So on one hand, I wouldn't say there isn't a path for Finland, on the other hand, there is every incentive for Erdogan just to keep on milking it.
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Jan 31, 2023 14:45
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Ardennes posted:Admittedly, I think the first wave of mobilization was above 300,000 (around 350,000) in total. the refusal of Russia to conscript against an enemy that seeks to put a rifle in the hand of every citizen is going to cost them the war in the long run
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Jan 31, 2023 14:45
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https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1620357122583314432?s=20&t=1vN1MWBu51lTStHjpuqjIQ Looks like both western and northern supply routes into Bakhmut will be cut around the same time. It won't be an encirclement, so Ukrainian forces should still be able to withdraw.
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Jan 31, 2023 14:45
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re: the nuclear poo poo, yesterday there was an interesting article in one of the major swedish newspapers. paywalled, so i couldn’t read it but the subheader read something like “A nuclear attack on a major city might lead to localized disaster - however,…” 
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Jan 31, 2023 14:45
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nuclear winter is a myth, so its safe to wage nuclear war now
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Jan 31, 2023 14:52
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OhFunny posted:https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1620357122583314432?s=20&t=1vN1MWBu51lTStHjpuqjIQ well, in part at least - with no roads and active artillery bombarment it's not going to be fun to try to extract munitions, any remaining heavy equipment or casualties. they basically can't use trucks in that case, and it's not obvious that they have enough tracked vehicles to extract all the guys they've got in the city
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Jan 31, 2023 14:57
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OctaMurk posted:nuclear winter is a myth, so its safe to wage nuclear war now lol the one goon in the Doomsday Econ thread that keeps saying nuclear war is fake
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Jan 31, 2023 14:57
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it's definitely fake. only volcanoes are capable of changing the climate.
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Jan 31, 2023 14:58
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Ardennes posted:Well, it is yes and no as far as the US goes, since there is plenty of tension between Ankara and Washington at the moment. The F-35 was also blocked in the beginning because Turkey bought S-400 systems and they don't want data from the interaction of the two making it to Moscow. Also, you have the issue of Greece now getting F-35s on top of that. my perspective on the swedish affair is that it's much simpler than most commentators want it to be: sweden promised turkey some extraditions which they haven't been willing or able to deliver. so, no NATO membership for them. this doesn't apply so much to finland.
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Jan 31, 2023 14:58
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Finland + Türkiyeah enjoy Ugric kinship
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Jan 31, 2023 15:00
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gradenko_2000 posted:lol the one goon in the Doomsday Econ thread that keeps saying nuclear war is fake Relevant tangent? He does that in multiple threads
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Jan 31, 2023 15:01
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Raskolnikov38 posted:the refusal of Russia to conscript against an enemy that seeks to put a rifle in the hand of every citizen is going to cost them the war in the long run Kiev may be willing to do so theoretically but it is clear they are having to take more and more drastic steps to keep conscripts coming in. There seems to be complaints on the Ukrainian side that not enough is being done. Also to be honest (and it has come up before) but a lot of Ukrainian men are already in some type of government service, are abroad, or just not suitable to fight. In addition, there are many others that see simply keeping their heads down or living unregistered somewhere. We will see about Russian mobilization versus Ukrainian mobilization but I don’t think the Ukrainian side is infinite (and honestly push comes to shove the raw Russian pool is probably 5-6x times larger at this point). Also, I don’t see pensioners, children, and moms being much use in combat tbh.
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Jan 31, 2023 15:02
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This war will never end, thus Russia cannot win it.
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Jan 31, 2023 15:04
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lol https://twitter.com/andersostlund/status/1620419874026840076?l https://twitter.com/andersostlund/status/1620422692783673344
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Jan 31, 2023 15:06
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theres a really awesome statue in austria dedicated to all the men in the army who deserted when the nazis took over lol
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Jan 31, 2023 15:17
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holy poo poo what a take
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Jan 31, 2023 15:17
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Donrf posted:
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Jan 31, 2023 15:17
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Danann posted:
lol
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Jan 31, 2023 15:25
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idk if these were posted, from Russia ministry of something yesterday    
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Jan 31, 2023 15:28
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the whole point of joining NATO together with sweden or not at all was the implicit strategic necessity of a land supply route through sweden in the event of a war with russia. this is so stupid i am actually beyond words to describe this. so we are simply planning on aggravating russia for lulz i guess. strategic pinecone thinking
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Jan 31, 2023 15:29
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mlmp08 posted:I think it’s entirely possible that Russia announced they wanted to mobilize 300,000, they then announced they mobilized about 300,000, and that the actual number was also about 300,000. That’s why I wondered whether Ardennes just thinks Russia was using deception or a different reason they missed the stated number by 50,000. Idk, seems like a very normal thing to happen. How would you land on exactly 300k if you database is kind of lacking and a bunch of people just remembered urgent business in Georgia? And if you end up picking up a few more, why not keep them if you kind find them a pair of regulatory socks?
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Jan 31, 2023 15:36
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mlmp08 posted:I think it’s entirely possible that Russia announced they wanted to mobilize 300,000, they then announced they mobilized about 300,000, and that the actual number was also about 300,000. That’s why I wondered whether Ardennes just thinks Russia was using deception or a different reason they missed the stated number by 50,000. drat dude thats so interesting, tell me more
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Jan 31, 2023 15:38
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gradenko_2000 posted:holy poo poo what a take This is all Austria-Hungary's fault for creating Ukrainians though. I'm slowly turning into Farrakhan but about Maria Theresa, the Partition of Poland and liturgical languages instead of Yakub.
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Jan 31, 2023 15:39
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genericnick posted:Idk, seems like a very normal thing to happen. How would you land on exactly 300k if you database is kind of lacking and a bunch of people just remembered urgent business in Georgia? And if you end up picking up a few more, why not keep them if you kind find them a pair of regulatory socks? Missing your mark by +50,000 people or 17% would be very piss poor accounting and management. An overage of a percent or something, whatever. Or muster 130 people to ship 100 who qualify, sure. But straight accidentally recruiting and sending to war 17% more, unfunded and undesired by leadership? That would be incompetent. In any case, was wondering where Ardennes got the number, since it runs counter to the Russian government’s statements. Russia’s claim is that they can count pretty well. plus, would be dishonest to your citizens to mislead them on mobilized soldiers. Putin has been careful on mobilization goals and forcible conscription political blowback. mlmp08 has issued a correction as of 15:45 on Jan 31, 2023 |
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Jan 31, 2023 15:42
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AnimeIsTrash posted:drat dude thats so interesting, tell me more Will do.
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Jan 31, 2023 15:42
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Frosted Flake posted:This is all Austria-Hungary's fault for creating Ukrainians though. if only Austria-Hungary didn't split into Austria and Hungary, there wouldn't be an Austria to start WWII 
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Jan 31, 2023 15:46
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I think we should say envelopment instead of encirclement as the latter is prone to many arguments
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Jan 31, 2023 15:46
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lollontee posted:the whole point of joining NATO together with sweden or not at all was the implicit strategic necessity of a land supply route through sweden in the event of a war with russia. this is so stupid i am actually beyond words to describe this. so we are simply planning on aggravating russia for lulz i guess. strategic pinecone thinking russia must be humiliated and defeated. honestly what are they going to do about it. well? what will they do?
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Jan 31, 2023 15:46
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lollontee posted:the whole point of joining NATO together with sweden or not at all was the implicit strategic necessity of a land supply route through sweden in the event of a war with russia. this is so stupid i am actually beyond words to describe this. so we are simply planning on aggravating russia for lulz i guess. strategic pinecone thinking Why do you even need to join NATO if you're in the EU? You're already in a defensive pact, I genuinely don't get it
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Jan 31, 2023 15:46
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Lostconfused posted:(from t.me/donrf22/14061, via tgsa) Just keep sending barely trained recruits with a rifle and two magazines of ammo, that will surely stop the russians
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Jan 31, 2023 15:48
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mlmp08 posted:Will do. waiting for this bump
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Jan 31, 2023 15:51
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AnimeIsTrash posted:waiting for this Okay, I’ll post later when I’m not outside. but it will probably just point out that I think Russians can count and Ardennes didn’t provide any evidence that they lied to their people and/or accidentally recruit 50k extras.
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Jan 31, 2023 15:57
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