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Edgar Allen Ho
Apr 3, 2017

by sebmojo
My wife has a bachelor's and I have an associate's

We also have good jobs now that have nothing to do with those

Hot take: the idea that post-secondary is important or should be mandatory is loving gross. Who cares? Thanks, professor I paid hundreds of dollars to, I now extra turbo double know MLA formatting and the themes of Macbeth. I am ready for English 1302.

Burn university and college to the ground.

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Freakazoid_
Jul 5, 2013


Buglord
It's a shame we're approaching the issue of men not getting into college as much as women using anecdotes and philosophical arguments.

Maybe we should just, like, ask these young men why. I'm willing to bet it's simply about cost and support, not because they lacked fathers or were brainwashed by boomers.

Morrow
Oct 31, 2010

Freakazoid_ posted:

It's a shame we're approaching the issue of men not getting into college as much as women using anecdotes and philosophical arguments.

Maybe we should just, like, ask these young men why. I'm willing to bet it's simply about cost and support, not because they lacked fathers or were brainwashed by boomers.

Pew is way ahead of you, but sadly they don't really give a good why beyond "just didn't want to".

quote:

Men are more likely than women to point to factors that have more to do with personal choice. Roughly a third (34%) of men without a bachelor’s degree say a major reason they didn’t complete college is that they just didn’t want to. Only one-in-four women say the same. Non-college-educated men are also more likely than their female counterparts to say a major reason they don’t have a four-year degree is that they didn’t need more education for the job or career they wanted (26% of men say this vs. 20% of women).

...

While a third of White adults without a four-year degree say not wanting to go to school was a major reason they didn’t complete a four-year degree, smaller shares of Black (22%) and Hispanic (23%) adults say the same. White adults are also more likely to say not needing more education for the job or career they wanted is a major reason why they don’t have a bachelor’s degree.

In some instances, the gender gaps in the reasons for not completing college are more pronounced among White adults than among Black or Hispanic adults. About four-in-ten White men who didn’t complete four years of college (39%) say a major reason for this is that they just didn’t want to. This compares with 27% of White women without a degree. Views on this don’t differ significantly by gender for Black or Hispanic adults.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/11/08/whats-behind-the-growing-gap-between-men-and-women-in-college-completion/

The part where there's an interaction between male and being white in thinking you don't need a degree does support anecdotal data that a lot of young men expected to be able to coast off institutional privilege.

Morrow fucked around with this message at 15:37 on Feb 4, 2023

Bel Shazar
Sep 14, 2012

Freakazoid_ posted:

It's a shame we're approaching the issue of men not getting into college as much as women using anecdotes and philosophical arguments.

Maybe we should just, like, ask these young men why. I'm willing to bet it's simply about cost and support, not because they lacked fathers or were brainwashed by boomers.

I was one of those young men... i'm sure underlying causes have changed but in my experience it was because the entirety of American culture was aligned towards my success and I continued to get jobs I was massively unqualified for until job experience became more important than education.

College just became less important when companies would put me in charge of 60+ employee divisions with just a high school diploma.

Lib and let die
Aug 26, 2004

College is a real poo poo investment when you can get a database touching job with the Democrats with nothing more than a Udemy certificate that says you know SQL.

Judgy Fucker
Mar 24, 2006

Edgar Allen Ho posted:

Burn university and college to the ground.

The point of telling kids they need college to succeed and learning vocationally useless stuff is well-taken but I think knowledge and learning aren’t bad things op, maybe we could actually keep the repositories of human knowledge and just not shoehorn everyone into them?

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

Pictured: Poster prepares to celebrate Holy Communion (probablY)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund
Yeah I think part of the problem is that Uni is just a job training factory. I came out of university having effectively learned to hate academia and not much else.

I'd prefer it if we gave people the ability to learn and grow without saying that "you need to do this for a good job". The best paid I've been since uni is working at a call centre not even vaguely connected to what I was doing before and I was a team leader at a major national museum.

rscott
Dec 10, 2009

Morrow posted:

Pew is way ahead of you, but sadly they don't really give a good why beyond "just didn't want to".

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/11/08/whats-behind-the-growing-gap-between-men-and-women-in-college-completion/

The part where there's an interaction between male and being white in thinking you don't need a degree does support anecdotal data that a lot of young men expected to be able to coast off institutional privilege.

You really don't need a degree as a white dude to be reasonably successful as long as you sound smart, show up and people think you're putting in effort. It took me until I was about 27 or so to figure all of that out (the putting in effort thing was the big stumbling block for me when I was younger) but like Bel Shazar says, it's amazing what they'll trust to a white guy with a high school diploma as long as that guy kind of sounds like he knows what he's talking about.

The problem it seems these days is that dudes are just not putting in the effort compared to women. Like for me personally it was because I was clinically depressed from age 13 until I went to therapy at 26 and literally just did not give a poo poo about striving towards some kind of goal. I feel like there's probably a big disparity between men and women going to therapy and seeking social support from their peers because conventional masculinity in the western world is a very libertarian ethos. We're taught to be self sufficient, independent and to not express emotions or feelings besides anger. This is a very poor recipe for dealing with insecurities and the various trials of life, and internalizing all of that poo poo makes you into a bitter, depressed person who is not very fun to be around and probably someone who isn't doing a lot to improve themselves and be a better person.

pencilhands
Aug 20, 2022

College was really important to me. I was a very socially awkward goon and being forced into shared living with other people my age did a huge favor for me in terms of emotional maturity. No way would I have ended up in a successful career without that experience.

Ravenfood
Nov 4, 2011

Edgar Allen Ho posted:

My wife has a bachelor's and I have an associate's

We also have good jobs now that have nothing to do with those

Hot take: the idea that post-secondary is important or should be mandatory is loving gross. Who cares? Thanks, professor I paid hundreds of dollars to, I now extra turbo double know MLA formatting and the themes of Macbeth. I am ready for English 1302.

Burn university and college to the ground.
It absolutely shouldn't be mandatory nor should it be one of the main paths to financial success. Nor is the cost at all sane, and the cross-pollution of universities being both job training areas and educational areas great. The idea that it isn't important and should be burned to the ground is insanely reactionary.

But also expect to see this a lot more if women continue to overtake men in terms of degree possession.

Bird in a Blender
Nov 17, 2005

It's amazing what they can do with computers these days.

pencilhands posted:

College was really important to me. I was a very socially awkward goon and being forced into shared living with other people my age did a huge favor for me in terms of emotional maturity. No way would I have ended up in a successful career without that experience.

This is one of the key parts of college. It’s forcing people to mingle with other people from lots of backgrounds. For some people, this is their first real exposure to people of color, or people from rural or city living. It’s a big part of building a more tolerant society because lots of people just continue with the same groups they had growing up for the rest of their life if they aren’t exposed to something different.

lobster shirt
Jun 14, 2021

i think it's interesting but unsurprising that four of the five largest states with home ownership disparities in favor of men are dominated by resource extraction. nevada also has a very large mining sector which probably accounts for its place there as well.

Boot and Rally
Apr 21, 2006

8===D
Nap Ghost

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

The other huge thing that is driving wildly divergent experiences in the post-pandemic economy is housing.

It gets talked about a lot, but mostly in the abstract.

A large amount of the overall inflation total comes from housing costs.

If you are one of the 60-65% of people who own their own home or live in owner-occupied housing, then the large wage increases combined with your housing costs staying flat means that even with moderate price inflation for goods and services you could have come out ahead overall.

For the 30-35% of people who are renters, especially renters in a major city with high housing costs, a good chunk of them were slammed with huge rent increases. Even the chunk who had small or moderate rent increases still lost ground and would have had to have been on the higher end of the wage growth scale to overcome that increase.

Your housing situation basically determined ~40% of whether you are actually doing a little better than pre-pandemic vs. whether you were crushed by the pandemic.

It's another one of the ways that housing policy in the U.S. is stealthily the most important economic program in the country, but is not talked about anywhere close to the same amount as tax cuts, minimum wage, etc.

Do you have sources to go along with this? I buy it, but I'd like to dig into it.

single-mode fiber
Dec 30, 2012

This guy posted about it fairly frequently last year, though the 3rd picture in the post really drives home the most salient part. There was nearly 1 trillion dollars in mortgage equity withdrawals in a single year, all of which was driven by the highest income earners. Or, as he summarized in a different post, poor people used stimulus and cheap rates to pay down their mortgages (the negative values) and extinguish other debts, rich people, angry about being inconvenienced by covid, used their houses as ATMs to go on a spree of revenge-spending. The data itself he just gathers straight from government sources, BLS, Fannie Mae, etc.

https://twitter.com/NewRiverInvest/status/1585566853060886528/photo/3

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

This does not make sense when, again, aggregate indicia also indicate improvements. The belief that things are worse is false. It remains false.

Dopilsya posted:

Thanks for that, that is interesting. The difference seems so little that enrollment splits can't just be due to some perception by men that it's less valuable or necessary.

Yeah, what we need is a breakdown by gender and by whether they're going to college. This is just the closest data I could immediately think of.

Morrow posted:

Pew is way ahead of you, but sadly they don't really give a good why beyond "just didn't want to".

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/11/08/whats-behind-the-growing-gap-between-men-and-women-in-college-completion/

The part where there's an interaction between male and being white in thinking you don't need a degree does support anecdotal data that a lot of young men expected to be able to coast off institutional privilege.

This is a lot closer, thanks!

Paracaidas
Sep 24, 2016
Consistently Tedious!
https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1621924251128287234

It's now official. Anything else aside, it does remove the dynamic of the first two states having outsized influence compared to the second two despite being worth a combined 65 delegates to the latter two's 90 delegates. Michigan and Georgia take on an outsized role in whittling the field before actual Super Tuesday (a combined 230 pledged delegates in 2020)

Paracaidas fucked around with this message at 18:37 on Feb 4, 2023

Mechafunkzilla
Sep 11, 2006

If you want a vision of the future...
Why not just have all the primaries on the same day?

the_steve
Nov 9, 2005

We're always hiring!

Mechafunkzilla posted:

Why not just have all the primaries on the same day?

Apparently that's some sort of logistical nightmare.
Also it makes it harder to manufacture the "This person is your inevitable candidate, don't even bother voting, you now support this person, unless you want the Other Political Party to win." narrative.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Not really a fan of giving South Carolina even more influence

Craptacular!
Jul 9, 2001

Fuck the DH
SC being first sits weird with me, but I'll blame that on media narratives and say no more.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal
How long does this take effect for? They were planning to change it up again every cycle, right?

reignonyourparade
Nov 15, 2012

the_steve posted:

Apparently that's some sort of logistical nightmare.
Also it makes it harder to manufacture the "This person is your inevitable candidate, don't even bother voting, you now support this person, unless you want the Other Political Party to win." narrative.

Tbh I think it actually makes it LESS hard to do that. Upsets rely on snowballing early successes to even be possible, there's basically no chance if the underdog has to spend their limited resources fighting things out in The Entire Country At The Same Time.

It's genuinely probably the logistical thing.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Mechafunkzilla posted:

Why not just have all the primaries on the same day?

Campaigning in every state at once is enormously expensive and difficult, which gives a massive advantage to heavily-connected candidates with a ton of funding, plenty of patronage connections, and national name recognition.

It stacks the deck against smaller dark-horse or grassroots candidates, who can considerably bolster their name recognition and support by winning a couple of early states to show they're just as electable as the frontrunners.

Paracaidas
Sep 24, 2016
Consistently Tedious!

Mechafunkzilla posted:

Why not just have all the primaries on the same day?
This would require any interested candidate to have a massive nationwide apparatus that comes at staggering cost and would likely further consolidate power in the hands of the megadonors and the inherited infrastructure passed down from establishment candidate to establishment candidate (see also: "Why don't we just start with Texas, New York, and California?")

The staggered schedule has its own colossal flaws both with order (when Iowa and New Hampshire are disproportionately powerful in determining candidate viability, "viable" candidates tend to reflect what Iowa and New Hampshire are comfortable with) and with some similarity to the nationwide primary day challenge (spooling up from "surprise early state contender" to "I have ads, staff, and volunteers in every Super Tuesday state" is a bit easier than having a nationwide campaign from day one, but still intensely challenging on a grassroots-focused budget).

the_steve posted:

Also it makes it harder to manufacture the "This person is your inevitable candidate, don't even bother voting, you now support this person, unless you want the Other Political Party to win." narrative.
Something else that would make it harder to manufacture that narrative: Actually trying to win in South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and other similar states. It's a strategy that hasn't been attempted by multiple Dem candidates (my apologies to Tom Steyer) in the same primary since 2008, but it might just do the trick.

haveblue posted:

How long does this take effect for? They were planning to change it up again every cycle, right?
I'll need to look back at earlier stories to confirm but my recollection is that it's the stated intent but there's no enforcement mechanism.

Inertia will likely be difficult to overcome, especially if replacing South Carolina with a more.... homogenous... state.

Mechafunkzilla
Sep 11, 2006

If you want a vision of the future...
Having there be only 1 candidate left by the time I get to vote in the primary seems pretty loving undemocratic, though. Seems simpler to just put limits on how much candidates are allowed to spend during the primaries.

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



Mechafunkzilla posted:

Having there be only 1 candidate left by the time I get to vote in the primary seems pretty loving undemocratic, though. Seems simpler to just put limits on how much candidates are allowed to spend during the primaries.

If you're outside of a handful of states, national level primaries basically don't exist yeah, it's easy to get pretty cynical about them especially when you get to see so much effort being put into making sure the first one is the most reliably conservative and all on its own so the party and its agitprop networks can get to work. It's also the last time you get to vote on who may be President. Focus on the local stuff imho, vote if you think it'll help, but recognize when it won't so you can spend the energy doing something that will.

Boot and Rally
Apr 21, 2006

8===D
Nap Ghost

single-mode fiber posted:

This guy posted about it fairly frequently last year, though the 3rd picture in the post really drives home the most salient part. There was nearly 1 trillion dollars in mortgage equity withdrawals in a single year, all of which was driven by the highest income earners. Or, as he summarized in a different post, poor people used stimulus and cheap rates to pay down their mortgages (the negative values) and extinguish other debts, rich people, angry about being inconvenienced by covid, used their houses as ATMs to go on a spree of revenge-spending. The data itself he just gathers straight from government sources, BLS, Fannie Mae, etc.

https://twitter.com/NewRiverInvest/status/1585566853060886528/photo/3

If you're responding to me I am afraid I do not understand this at all. Or how it relates to the original post.

RealityWarCriminal
Aug 10, 2016

:o:

Mechafunkzilla posted:

Why not just have all the primaries on the same day?

It's much cheaper to campaign in Iowa and NH and hope to coast on name recognition than having to campaign everywhere. Also it lets niche state issues dominate national politics, like you have to be pro-corn to compete in Iowa so every serious candidate favors corn subsidies which leads to HFCS in everything. Finally, it lets small low-hope candidates focus on one state hoping for a win, like Mayo Pete focusing solely on the white chud adjacent Iowa Democrat voters. All in all, it's the best system we have.

Harold Fjord
Jan 3, 2004
Probation
Can't post for 35 hours!
Yeah that's a good point mpf.

You can be an unknown nice guy and almost beat famous senator if you can start with a nice small state like Iowa or New Hampshire. Let's you build news cycles for future States

reignonyourparade
Nov 15, 2012

Mechafunkzilla posted:

Having there be only 1 candidate left by the time I get to vote in the primary seems pretty loving undemocratic, though. Seems simpler to just put limits on how much candidates are allowed to spend during the primaries.

That pretty much just replaces the resources problem with the name recognition problem.

Cycling through who gets to be when should probably happen but the gradual succession of primaries is genuinely probably the only way to even have a chance of upsets.

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



Any real solution to the obviously intractable problems with the current method is much more likely to be along the lines of "no more campaigning" than it is "we've fiddled with the rules a bit." Campaigning isn't going anywhere unfortunately even if we're beyond the point where one could even argue people have learned more at the end than they would've gotten from a statement of positions of all candidates at the start. Too many careers rely on it and it's a cultural expectation. I can vote early here so when there's actually a candidate I can vote for, so I can at least knock it out early and never have to think about the race again.

RealityWarCriminal
Aug 10, 2016

:o:
After Biden finished 5th in NH, it was clear the state could not be counted on to pick presidents. Thankfully SC stepped up.

single-mode fiber
Dec 30, 2012

Boot and Rally posted:

If you're responding to me I am afraid I do not understand this at all. Or how it relates to the original post.

The relation is that it's not only that housing costs stayed flat for homeowners, it's that the top half of them also got a generational windfall of cash in a year, which they immediately turned around and windmill slammed into goods and service purchases. Their willingness to pay an enormous premium in order to get those immediately, instead of deferring for months or years, is a significant driver of overall inflation. Renters are worse off not only because of the direct negative effects of inflation, but also because they did not even get the opportunity to tap into this dynamic (they would've been limited to transfer payments like stimulus checks, child care tax credit, etc.).

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



RealityWarCriminal posted:

After Biden finished 5th in NH, it was clear the state could not be counted on to pick presidents. Thankfully SC stepped up.

NH hasn't moved much, I don't think any faction in any party thinks they can rely on it to vote in a sensible or reliable way. Nevada moving up is the big victory provided it's not because they feel they've brought the unions and new leadership under heel.

Timeless Appeal
May 28, 2006
Georgia, Michigan, and Nevada would have made a lot more sense to me as all being on day one. Gives a good cross-section and signals to those places that they're important to Democrats.

Paracaidas
Sep 24, 2016
Consistently Tedious!

Mechafunkzilla posted:

Having there be only 1 candidate left by the time I get to vote in the primary seems pretty loving undemocratic, though. Seems simpler to just put limits on how much candidates are allowed to spend during the primaries.
There's no mechanism forcing candidates off the ballot in a staggered primary, they just tend to bail when there's no chance to win (and/or no chance to deny someone else an outright victory). I suspect a nationwide primary would see similar dynamics for any candidate polling ~25-30% off the lead 2 months out. There are too many political, personal, and financial incentives to GTFO of a losing campaign.

Establishment candidates and those beloved by corporate media (but I repeat myself) would give their firstborn to have a nationwide primary with spending limits.

Epic High Five posted:

it's easy to get pretty cynical about them especially when you get to see so much effort being put into making sure the first one is the most reliably conservative and all on its own so the party and its agitprop networks can get to work.
I know when I think "Reliably Conservative" I think of Jesse Jackson over Gore and Dukakis, John "Two Americas" Edwards over Kerry, Clark, and Dean, and Obama over Hillary. Of course, Jackson, Obama, and Edwards actually put the effort in. Unsurprisingly, when more progressive candidates ignore the state they... don't win?

Sanders decided not to bother

quote:

In January, efforts by Ms. Turner and others to direct some campaign resources into Super Tuesday states fizzled against opposition from Mr. Shakir and others. Mr. Shakir was adamant that Mr. Sanders’s path to the nomination ran principally through Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, and the California primary on Super Tuesday.

quote:

The pollster, Ben Tulchin, in a meeting with campaign aides, recommended a new offensive to influence older black voters, according to three people briefed on his presentation. The data showed two clear vulnerabilities for Mr. Biden: his past support for overhauling Social Security, and his authorship of a punitive criminal justice law in the 1990s.

But the suggestion met with resistance. Some senior advisers argued that it wasn’t worth diverting resources from Iowa and New Hampshire, people familiar with the campaign’s deliberations said. Others pressed Mr. Tulchin on what kind of message, exactly, would make voters rethink their support for the most loyal ally of the first black president.
I've said before: I firmly believe Bernie wins if this is the 2020 calendar because the idiot contingent within his staff couldn't have rebranded 2016's "But we got Danny Glover and a state senator from Ohio, what more can we do?" strategic trainwreck as "California: It's easier than winning black votes."

It's absolutely possible that the DNC made this move trying to push the primaries in a more centrist and predictable direction. They are the sort of dumbasses who would ignore that South Carolina Dems consistently choose the more progressive and/or economically populist whenever those candidates pay attention to their state.

Epic High Five posted:

Campaigning isn't going anywhere unfortunately even if we're beyond the point where one could even argue people have learned more at the end than they would've gotten from a statement of positions of all candidates at the start.
"Is universal healthcare important to you and your family? It is to me too. That's why I cosponsored the Senate's Medicare for All bill" -- Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, Kirsten Gillibrand

Timeless Appeal posted:

Georgia, Michigan, and Nevada would have made a lot more sense to me as all being on day one. Gives a good cross-section and signals to those places that they're important to Democrats.
I'm glad they moved Nevada up to the same day and SC/NH/NV does hit a sweetspot for me: None of the states are prohibitively expensive to campaign in (NH doesn't get caught in Boston's market, right?), they represent a broad swath of the party politically and demographically, and a competitive finish in all 3 or a victory in any of them leaves a candidate in a strong position if they look remotely viable in the larger and costlier Georgia and Michigan contests. I do expect further changes before the next contested primary: Probably either Michigan<->Illinois or New Hampshire <-> [MN/OR/AZ]

Epic High Five posted:

Focus on the local stuff imho, vote if you think it'll help, but recognize when it won't so you can spend the energy doing something that will.
This is kickass advice for everyone!

-Blackadder-
Jan 2, 2007

Game....Blouses.
Balloon's down.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1621958202924437504
For the best. GOP was starting to gear up for a heavy lean in on it.

Also Blinken has cancelled his China trip.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/fallout-suspected-spy-balloon-kills-huge-propaganda-win-china-rcna69157

quote:

“This incident is incredibly embarrassing for Beijing. It reinforces concerns that most Western nations justifiably harbor about China’s great power ambitions,” Craig Singleton, a senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington, D.C., think tank, told NBC News Saturday.

He added that Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s decision on Friday to indefinitely postpone his visit to China had defeated what would have been a “huge propaganda win” for Beijing, “in essence signaling that America has dispatched its top envoy to China and not the other way round.”

-Blackadder- fucked around with this message at 21:58 on Feb 4, 2023

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

The order of the states should have been randomized. Very simple, the candidates are going to raise a poo poo ton of money in any event no matter what order the states all start in election to election.

Shrecknet
Jan 2, 2005


It should be 5 states per period (every 2 weeks), and the 5 should be one from each quintile of the states by population (so something like California, Colorado, Indiana, Maine, Wyoming). Certainly there's a way to do this with some geographic concessions for lower-budget campaigns, and then rotate the starting batch of five every four years.

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I AM GRANDO
Aug 20, 2006

The equipment hanging from that balloon looked extremely basic and junky. Will it be recovered to show that there was no danger, or will that make things worse? I can imagine that either way conspiracy theorists will claim the truth of what was on the balloon is being buried.

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