The housing market - Think it depends on the definition of underwater

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > The housing market - Think it depends on the definition of underwater

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Nothus: Feb 22, 2001; Buglord

Are they fishing for someone to talk them into paying 1k more per month to own?

# ? Feb 7, 2023 15:40

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# ? May 25, 2024 05:05

CRUSTY MINGE: Mar 30, 2011; Peggy Hill
Foot Connoisseur

Nothus posted:

Are they fishing for someone to talk them into paying 1k more per month to own?

To own a house instead of a "townhouse".

# ? Feb 7, 2023 15:42

Paradoxish: Dec 19, 2003; Will you stop going crazy in there?

People make posts like that because they've already decided to do the thing and soliciting advice (no matter what the advice says) makes them feel like they've carefully weighed their options.

# ? Feb 7, 2023 15:42

MickeyFinn: May 8, 2007; Biggie Smalls and Junior Mafia some mark ass bitches

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

and still can't afford kids

I hope they have willing parents nearby. As soon as the $1k+ bills for child care start coming in, they are going to realize how hosed they really are.

CRUSTY MINGE posted:

To own a house instead of a "townhouse".

What? They want to buy a townhouse instead of renting one.

# ? Feb 7, 2023 15:50

CRUSTY MINGE: Mar 30, 2011; Peggy Hill
Foot Connoisseur

MickeyFinn posted:

What? They want to buy a townhouse instead of renting one.

Ah, my bad, I thought they were hemming/hawwing between an $800k SFH and a $650k townhouse. Completely missed the rent part.

# ? Feb 7, 2023 15:53

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud: Apr 7, 2003

Getting car insurance through dad at age 28 is fuckin dire

# ? Feb 7, 2023 16:01

mastershakeman: Oct 28, 2008; by vyelkin

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

and still can't afford kids

sure they can, they just cant then have 4 vacations a year

edit lol im an idiot homeowner living forever in the year i bought. i totally forgot about the interest rate spikes and was like 'oh come on the mortgage wont be that bad' and started running numbers and my eyes popped out

mastershakeman has issued a correction as of 16:26 on Feb 7, 2023

# ? Feb 7, 2023 16:23

Paradoxish: Dec 19, 2003; Will you stop going crazy in there?

Yeah that mortgage is wholly unaffordable for them and it's crazy they got an approval.

RIP if they ever need to buy new cars or fix anything on their house

# ? Feb 7, 2023 16:39

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud: Apr 7, 2003

Paradoxish posted:

Yeah that mortgage is wholly unaffordable for them and it's crazy they got an approval.

RIP if they ever need to buy new cars or fix anything on their house

They got an approval for nearly six times their gross. Rule of thumb / HUD guidelines are 3x yearly gross or 30% of gross income per month.

We're cruising towards another massive eviction crisis.

# ? Feb 7, 2023 16:42

Fitzy Fitz: May 14, 2005

Paradoxish posted:

Yeah that mortgage is wholly unaffordable for them and it's crazy they got an approval.

RIP if they ever need to buy new cars or fix anything on their house

RIP the moment their child is born. I don't know how you could add the cost of childcare to that or afford for one of them to stay home.

# ? Feb 7, 2023 16:44

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud: Apr 7, 2003

They're in Santa Cruz county, wasn't that area a shithole thirty or forty years ago

# ? Feb 7, 2023 16:45

Ornery and Hornery: Oct 22, 2020

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

They got an approval for nearly six times their gross. Rule of thumb / HUD guidelines are 3x yearly gross or 30% of gross income per month.

We're cruising towards another massive eviction crisis.

when? I will buy their foreclosure on the cheap

# ? Feb 7, 2023 16:46

Willa Rogers: Mar 11, 2005

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

They got an approval for nearly six times their gross. Rule of thumb / HUD guidelines are 3x yearly gross or 30% of gross income per month.

We're cruising towards another massive eviction crisis.

Already happening with rentals.

quote:

The investment firm Blackstone has filed hundreds of eviction cases against its tenants in Georgia and Florida, the Financial Times reported on Monday.

Data compiled by the Private Equity Stakeholder Project, a nonprofit advocacy group that tracks private-equity investment in housing and other sectors, shows that Blackstone's eviction filings significantly increased since July. In Florida, Blackstone has filed 382 evictions since July. It's filed another 311 cases in Georgia. The Private Equity Stakeholder Project's research found another 104 eviction filings in Clark County, Nevada, home to Las Vegas, as well as 125 cases in Maricopa County, Arizona, where Phoenix is.

Jim Baker, the Private Equity Stakeholder Project's executive director, told the Financial Times that Blackstone's status as one of the country's biggest landlords means its actions resonate widely.

"Given Blackstone's massive role in the housing market, the firm's recent move to evict tenants threatens housing stability for families in the US and around the world," he said.

Blackstone owns more than $326 million worth of real estate across the country. About one-fifth of those holdings are tied up in an investment vehicle known as the Blackstone Real Estate Investment Trust, or BREIT. Over half of BREIT's $69 billion portfolio is made up of rental housing, and 97% of those holdings are in the US.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/rea...44ca68bd38506ed

But good news for investors!

quote:

The news of Blackstone's increasing eviction efforts came days after the company announced its fourth-quarter earnings. It said its total assets under management � which covers all Blackstone's businesses, not just real estate � grew by 11% year over year, to about $974 billion.

Blackstone also said its core real-estate portfolios have performed well with room for even more upside. For example, what Blackstone calls its "opportunistic" real-estate portfolio appreciated by more than 7% during 2022 in one of the most challenging markets in recent memory. The firm's core real-estate portfolio gained more than 10% in value during 2022.

BREIT specifically has outperformed several publicly traded REITs. The fund's website indicates that as of December 31, it had produced an annualized return of 8.4%. For comparison, Vanguard's real-estate index fund lost more than 17% of its value over the past year, while iShares' Core US REIT lost more than 14% of its value.

# ? Feb 7, 2023 16:46

spacemang_spliff: Nov 29, 2014; wide pickle

mastershakeman posted:

sure they can, they just cant then have 4 vacations a year

edit lol im an idiot homeowner living forever in the year i bought. i totally forgot about the interest rate spikes and was like 'oh come on the mortgage wont be that bad' and started running numbers and my eyes popped out

lol their mortgage would be like almost $5k a month. Leaving 2k for everything else

# ? Feb 7, 2023 16:46

Zurtilik: Oct 23, 2015; The Biggest Brain in Guardia

Yeah it's pretty cool. I got a house worth twice as much but with interest my mortgage almost tripled. 😎

# ? Feb 7, 2023 16:47

spacemang_spliff: Nov 29, 2014; wide pickle

yeah it owns that like no one will be able to afford a house unless their wealthy parents buy it or die

doing great america

# ? Feb 7, 2023 16:49

Fitzy Fitz: May 14, 2005

Willa Rogers posted:

Already happening with rentals.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/rea...44ca68bd38506ed

But good news for investors!

Oh yeah, we just had a big corporate landlord come in and buy up an entire neighborhood of rental duplexes, evict everyone (many of whom who'd been living there long-term), and jack the rent way up. There were protests and complaints from the city itself, but what they did was totally legal!

# ? Feb 7, 2023 16:50

spacemang_spliff: Nov 29, 2014; wide pickle

thank god my old man died when interest rates were low

# ? Feb 7, 2023 16:50

Fitzy Fitz: May 14, 2005

spacemang_spliff posted:

yeah it owns that like no one will be able to afford a house unless their wealthy parents buy it or die

doing great america

Emphasis on the "wealthy" because I get the impression inheritance is fading as more and more elderly are drained of their money by healthcare and housing costs in old age.

# ? Feb 7, 2023 16:51

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud: Apr 7, 2003

Fitzy Fitz posted:

Oh yeah, we just had a big corporate landlord come in and buy up an entire neighborhood of rental duplexes, evict everyone (many of whom who'd been living there long-term), and jack the rent way up. There were protests and complaints from the city itself, but what they did was totally legal!

Blackstone bought an ~11,000-unit complex on Manhattan built in the late 1940s, jacked the prices up to around $3800-4200 a unit, and are trying to get New York rent stabilization laws messed with so they can raise the rent even higher. On units that were built a lifetime ago.

# ? Feb 7, 2023 16:53

Paradoxish: Dec 19, 2003; Will you stop going crazy in there?

Fitzy Fitz posted:

RIP the moment their child is born. I don't know how you could add the cost of childcare to that or afford for one of them to stay home.

They literally can't. Assuming their incomes are roughly in the same ballpark then they likely can't afford their mortgage payments alone on a single income, not including any other housing expenses. That's loving crazy. The idea that any legitimate lender would approve a mortgage like that is absolutely batshit.

# ? Feb 7, 2023 16:54

Nothus: Feb 22, 2001; Buglord

And that's assuming there are no unanticipated health complications.

# ? Feb 7, 2023 16:55

Not a Children: Oct 9, 2012; Don't need a holster if you never stop shooting.

That income is apparently take-home, so their gross income is likely much higher than the $7200 number cited. Maybe they can free up some money from an uncited 401k, besides that... Maybe.

Either way, yeah, they're just looking for permission to do what they already wanted

# ? Feb 7, 2023 16:58

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud: Apr 7, 2003

Not a Children posted:

That income is apparently take-home, so their gross income is likely much higher than the $7200 number cited. Maybe they can free up some money from an uncited 401k, besides that... Maybe.

Either way, yeah, they're just looking for permission to do what they already wanted

Rule of thumb is net / 0.7 = gross, their gross is around $120ish. They got approved for $700K. That's underwriter malpractice.

# ? Feb 7, 2023 16:59

Paradoxish: Dec 19, 2003; Will you stop going crazy in there?

Yeah, it's extremely reminiscent of pre-2008 rubber stamping. It's not like it's a little bit off, they got approved for a loan that's way above what's affordable for them.

# ? Feb 7, 2023 17:11

Minecraft Holmes: Oct 21, 2016

euphronius posted:

if their parents gave them 200k or so they�d probably make it work

underwriters don't tend to like that actually

# ? Feb 7, 2023 17:18

Willa Rogers: Mar 11, 2005

A lot of rental properties in Chicago metro are being bought out by Beal Properties. I thought it was a local firm but googling it makes it seem like a mini-Blackstone with national reach.

# ? Feb 7, 2023 17:25

actionjackson: Jan 12, 2003

Willa Rogers posted:

A lot of rental properties in Chicago metro are being bought out by Beal Properties. I thought it was a local firm but googling it makes it seem like a mini-Blackstone with national reach.

Beal as in the guy that also played high stakes poker a lot, Andy Beal?

# ? Feb 7, 2023 17:26

Willa Rogers: Mar 11, 2005

I dunno; there's different Beals for different cities I guess. :confused:

Mommy & Daddy Beal had a slew of kids & now those kids screw tenants all across the country.

# ? Feb 7, 2023 17:30

Willa Rogers: Mar 11, 2005

there's a website called avoidbealproperties.com and this was from it:

quote:

Who Owns Beal Properties in Chicago, IL?
In our investigations about Beal Properties we have found a spiderweb of LLC organizations often related to their buildings, but also as holding companies. Each of which often redirect to other organizations.

While operating multiple LLCs is common in real estate and property management, they usually have appropriate information recorded with the State regarding who manages that.

In this case, we find Master Holdings, LLC and BP Holdings, LLC, both of which appear not to be registered with the State of Illinois as of 5/13/2020, filed as a foreign corporation, or as a DBA who are often recorded as the managers of the various Beal Properties LLCs. We�ve asked the Secretary of State to investigate this, who then referred us to the Illinois Attorney General. We are still pending their response.

Based on extensive searching and data mining, it appears the principal owner of Beal Properties is a man by the name of William Silverstein. Silverstein is credited in the Chicago Business Journal as the �founder� of Beal Properties back in a 2018 article.

Why all these LLCs have a seemingly non-registered LLC as their manager is a bit concerning. Is this a giant blunder of administrative failure, or is this something more such as an attempt to hide ownership as best as possible?

If it is an attempt to hide ownership, why? In our experience as tenants, we have found in maddening to not know who to reach when things need to be escalated. Talking with many Beal Properties staff when things go south seem to be difficult and they hold the cards close as to who is higher up. It�s a silo that many tenants may not be able to break, less they know someone.

# ? Feb 7, 2023 17:33

Nitevision: Oct 5, 2004; Your Friendly FYAD Helper
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Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

They're in Santa Cruz county, wasn't that area a shithole thirty or forty years ago

Yeah Santa Cruz boomed in the 80s as a bedroom community for Silicon Valley but all the housing has been owned by Prop 13 olds since then, who have completely dug their heels against development and mostly allowed the rental stock to rot into slums. Anyone under 60 who owns a house was a java developer. It's as expensive as Seattle there

Further reading: https://darrellowens.substack.com/p/santa-cruz-is-a-housing-nightmare

# ? Feb 7, 2023 18:48

Justin Tyme: Feb 22, 2011

mastershakeman posted:

oh boo hoo they only make 120k a year

its not 1995 anymore grandpa

cool country though where you can make like seven grand takehome a month and instead of living large with a grill and a pool you get the privilege of being able to live in some lovely townhouse from the 70's and get two thousand left over to spend on $10 a dozen eggs

Justin Tyme has issued a correction as of 18:55 on Feb 7, 2023

# ? Feb 7, 2023 18:51

Fitzy Fitz: May 14, 2005

Justin Tyme posted:

its not 1995 anymore grandpa

Hell, it's not 2019 anymore. Housing prices have basically doubled in the last few years. I feel like my savings lost all their value overnight.

# ? Feb 7, 2023 18:55

Blackhawk: Nov 15, 2004

Fitzy Fitz posted:

Hell, it's not 2019 anymore. Housing prices have basically doubled in the last few years. I feel like my savings lost all their value overnight.

But inflation isn't that bad* !!

* If you don't count trivialities such as food, housing and energy

Here in Auckland I know and talk to a lot of young engineers with good highly skilled jobs and barring getting an extremely well-paid management position somewhere nobody under about 30 to 35 will ever be able to afford a house or apartment in this city on their own salary (even as DINKs).

If you exclude the exurbs that are a >1 hour drive from the city in peak hour traffic the average house price is ~$1.2M NZD ($760k USD) while median household income is ~$105k NZD ($66k USD) for a price to income ratio of around 11.5. It was actually kinda hard to find the median household income because newspapers and the government love to quote the average value, which is obviously significantly higher due to wealth disparity.

# ? Feb 7, 2023 19:32

Nothus: Feb 22, 2001; Buglord

Nitevision posted:

Yeah Santa Cruz boomed in the 80s as a bedroom community for Silicon Valley but all the housing has been owned by Prop 13 olds since then, who have completely dug their heels against development and mostly allowed the rental stock to rot into slums. Anyone under 60 who owns a house was a java developer. It's as expensive as Seattle there

Further reading: https://darrellowens.substack.com/p/santa-cruz-is-a-housing-nightmare

In that case, I see why that couple feels like they have to play financial Russian roulette for a lovely townhouse

# ? Feb 7, 2023 21:12

MickeyFinn: May 8, 2007; Biggie Smalls and Junior Mafia some mark ass bitches

Blackhawk posted:

But inflation isn't that bad* !!

* If you don't count trivialities such as food, housing and energy

Here in Auckland I know and talk to a lot of young engineers with good highly skilled jobs and barring getting an extremely well-paid management position somewhere nobody under about 30 to 35 will ever be able to afford a house or apartment in this city on their own salary (even as DINKs).

If you exclude the exurbs that are a >1 hour drive from the city in peak hour traffic the average house price is ~$1.2M NZD ($760k USD) while median household income is ~$105k NZD ($66k USD) for a price to income ratio of around 11.5. It was actually kinda hard to find the median household income because newspapers and the government love to quote the average value, which is obviously significantly higher due to wealth disparity.

Have you considered how great this situation makes current homeowners who purchased a long time ago feel, though? When they get old and their children, who live 2+ hours away, can't take care of them and they live in their own filth due to in-home care being way too expensive, because the workers are paying way too much for rent, you can bet they are going to come for your paycheck to keep their quality of life high.

# ? Feb 7, 2023 21:33

Failson: Sep 2, 2018; Fun Shoe

Goon project: buy a block from the Detroit Land Bank.

Oh hey, Toledo has a Land Bank too!

Surely there are jobs and services and transportation there too!

...

...

Surely

# ? Feb 7, 2023 22:05

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud: Apr 7, 2003

I went to Toledo for a baseball game a while back and honestly it ain't too bad, Libbey Glass money put some nice museums there.

# ? Feb 7, 2023 22:43

Demon Of The Fall: May 1, 2004; Nap Ghost

spacemang_spliff posted:

yeah it owns that like no one will be able to afford a house unless their wealthy parents buy it or die

doing great america

the only reason I was able to afford a home last year was my dad prematurely dying and leaving me and my sister money that he was going to blow on travel during retirement

# ? Feb 7, 2023 22:45

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# ? May 25, 2024 05:05

spacemang_spliff: Nov 29, 2014; wide pickle

Demon Of The Fall posted:

the only reason I was able to afford a home last year was my dad prematurely dying and leaving me and my sister money that he was going to blow on travel during retirement

yeah same pretty much

# ? Feb 7, 2023 23:01

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