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Karma Comedian posted:https://twitter.com/grahworin/status/1624105789571858438?t=HM3_1XSP15n5fzvjsSzH5A&s=19 the nuclear threats are coming from inside the democracy e: im assuming the test launch was planned a long time ago, else just deciding to do an icbm launch at this time would be kinda creepy with whatever getting shot down over north america OctaMurk fucked around with this message at 03:54 on Feb 13, 2023 |
# ? Feb 13, 2023 03:49 |
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# ? Jun 6, 2024 04:13 |
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A.o.D. posted:yeah I just say recon if reconnaissance is too many syllables for some reason. I think "wrecky" vs "reecon" is a Commonwealth vs USA difference. "Recce" is used in Australia, too. I wonder which the Canadians use...
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# ? Feb 13, 2023 03:52 |
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We say wrecky up here. Though the last time I heard it spoken was over 10 years ago, but I can't imagine they would've suddenly stopped saying that. Especially since we still say "leftenant"
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# ? Feb 13, 2023 04:05 |
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Comrade Blyatlov posted:America just reminding everyone, huh? Its more that the solid rockets can go bad over time so best to pull one from inventory and test it, and while you are at it, might as verify it can hit a target. They do these at least once a year.
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# ? Feb 13, 2023 04:38 |
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OctaMurk posted:e: im assuming the test launch was planned a long time ago, else just deciding to do an icbm launch at this time would be kinda creepy with whatever getting shot down over north america These are the kind of thing planned and also announced to other countries, often over a year in advance. The date may shift slightly, but they are never a surprise launch, and they aren’t even done on a weeks’ notice, because they’re so expensive and high profile. Russia fires theirs into Kamchatka, the US into Kwaj, China has a desert range.
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# ? Feb 13, 2023 04:52 |
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Steezo posted:The war. *squints at history post civil war* mmmmm. Personally I don't think they lost hard enough.
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# ? Feb 13, 2023 05:13 |
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I sure hope someone's doing the math on whether this "drown them in bodies" strategy is actually going to break the Ukrainian ability to defend. At this point it seems like a race between Russian civil disorder versus the ability of Ukrainians to provide manpower against the zerg rush.
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# ? Feb 13, 2023 05:25 |
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Russia appears to be advancing... very very slowly, and paying extremely dearly for it in men and materials. Whatever "surge" this offensive is, doesn't seem to be causing big enough cracks. Ukraine seems to be conceding ground intelligently in anticipation of the resources that are coming to them soon. Bradleys are already on the trains/on the way there. Leopards are coming next month. Personally I don't think this Russian surge is going to gain much ground, relative to the number of dead Russians it is producing, and then I expect that to be stalled and then reversed as the Bradleys, Leopards and other tanks make it to the field. I don't expect Russian civil disorder any time soon. Hunger causes unrest, not lack of Prada shoes, and Russia doesn't seem to be going hungry yet, and they're actively reducing the number of mouths they have to feed. Also every dead Russian on the battlefield is one less hungry Russian grumbling in front of the Kremlin.
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# ? Feb 13, 2023 05:35 |
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Hunger just doesn’t seem like a problem anyway. One of Russia’s strengths is that they can make a lot of food and source their own energy. Keeping people fed and the lights on goes a long way to being more domestically resilient when faced with adversarial sanctions.
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# ? Feb 13, 2023 05:42 |
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Yeah. The more I look at how things are going politically, I see Ukraine/Russia ending up like the Koreas or (and I hate this comparison) Israel. The tipping point will be if/when Ukraine has enough resources to push Russia out. Russia's stockpile of arms is shrinking all the time and nothing I've seen suggests they have the ability to replace them (besides actual men to fight, for now). Meanwhile Ukraine just has more and more effective and modern tools coming to them all the time.
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# ? Feb 13, 2023 05:49 |
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Carth Dookie posted:Yeah. Russia just has to hold out through the morning of January 20, 2025. US support can't be relied on after that date.
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# ? Feb 13, 2023 05:56 |
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psydude posted:Ok, so we've landed on "most iconic and culturally defining battles of American history" as an equivalent for what's happening right now in Putin's Special Military Operation. "do you have an ice cream ship Russia? I have an ice cream ship"
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# ? Feb 13, 2023 06:01 |
Carth Dookie posted:Russia appears to be advancing... very very slowly, and paying extremely dearly for it in men and materials. Whatever "surge" this offensive is, doesn't seem to be causing big enough cracks. Ukraine seems to be conceding ground intelligently in anticipation of the resources that are coming to them soon. The hosed up thing is, this is word for word what Zhukov did to break the Germans at Kursk. History repeats itself.
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# ? Feb 13, 2023 06:09 |
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A.o.D. posted:A little over half that number. Although their numbers would have skewed more heavily towards killed, it doesn't really matter because your chances of losing a limb were way higher, so an injury in those days was significantly more likely to permanently end your soldiering career. yeah i knew it wasnt quite even but Grant was right even though the cost was terrible the outcome was one step closer to winning
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# ? Feb 13, 2023 06:12 |
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Steezo posted:The war. shame they won the country Karma Comedian posted:https://twitter.com/grahworin/status/1624105789571858438?t=HM3_1XSP15n5fzvjsSzH5A&s=19 Aliens: "hmm yes how quaint. "Minute" man. You humans broadcast your inferiorities, meanwhile our weapons are measured in femtoseconds"
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# ? Feb 13, 2023 06:16 |
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HolHorsejob posted:If Russia has displayed anything, it's that there's no limit to the "stick" slider on the stick/carrot spectrum. Apparently you can get whatever you want if you apply an unlimited level of coercion.
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# ? Feb 13, 2023 07:16 |
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Comrade Blyatlov posted:The hosed up thing is, this is word for word what Zhukov did to break the Germans at Kursk. History repeats itself. Kursk involved a massive attack by the Germans into the teeth of prepared defenses followed by a Soviet counteroffensive. I'm not really seeing the parallels.
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# ? Feb 13, 2023 13:22 |
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EasilyConfused posted:Kursk involved a massive attack by the Germans into the teeth of prepared defenses followed by a Soviet counteroffensive. User name post combo? Can’t tell if you’re being facetious.
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# ? Feb 13, 2023 14:33 |
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Really all that has to dry up is press coverage of it, and that's gonna happen long before January 20 2025.
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# ? Feb 13, 2023 14:35 |
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Carth Dookie posted:Russia appears to be advancing... very very slowly, and paying extremely dearly for it in men and materials. Whatever "surge" this offensive is, doesn't seem to be causing big enough cracks. Ukraine seems to be conceding ground intelligently in anticipation of the resources that are coming to them soon. The hope being that once Russia has spent themselves attacking they will have hollowed out their defenses and be open for exploitation. It seems pretty likely.
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# ? Feb 13, 2023 14:36 |
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Murgos posted:User name post combo? Can’t tell if you’re being facetious.
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# ? Feb 13, 2023 14:50 |
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What's the feasibility of Ukrainian forces striking for the Sea of Azov (Berdyans'k or Melitopol) and splitting the whole front in two?
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# ? Feb 13, 2023 14:56 |
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Just Another Lurker posted:What's the feasibility of Ukrainian forces striking for the Sea of Azov (Berdyans'k or Melitopol) and splitting the whole front in two? I forget where I was reading it, but yeah there's some speculation among analysts that any major Ukrainian counteroffensive would focus on striking toward Azov and breaking the land bridge to Kherson/Crimea. psydude fucked around with this message at 15:38 on Feb 13, 2023 |
# ? Feb 13, 2023 15:35 |
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My general sense is that this is going to be the means by which they will make an assault on Crimea possible, if they truly intend to recapture their territory.
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# ? Feb 13, 2023 19:01 |
Just Another Lurker posted:What's the feasibility of Ukrainian forces striking for the Sea of Azov (Berdyans'k or Melitopol) and splitting the whole front in two? Everybody looking at a map can see how effective an offensive to the coast there would be. My impression is that the Ukrainians want and need a real armored fist in order to push through the lines and get to the coast there. If I needed to guess, what I think could happen is that as the Russian offensive falters and the Russian defensive lines get thinner and demoralized, Ukraine will use its first larger groups of Western IFVs and tanks in order to launch a counteroffensive somewhere in that region in order to reach the coast and cut off Crimea.
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# ? Feb 13, 2023 20:13 |
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Wickerman posted:My general sense is that this is going to be the means by which they will make an assault on Crimea possible, if they truly intend to recapture their territory. Whether or not they can is an open question. I don't think there's any value in doubting their intent to do so. A.o.D. fucked around with this message at 20:20 on Feb 13, 2023 |
# ? Feb 13, 2023 20:16 |
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Just Another Lurker posted:What's the feasibility of Ukrainian forces striking for the Sea of Azov (Berdyans'k or Melitopol) and splitting the whole front in two? That is for multiple reasons the most desirable place for the Ukrainians to attack. Russia knows this too.
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# ? Feb 13, 2023 20:47 |
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A.o.D. posted:Whether or not they can is an open question. I don't think there's any value in doubting their intent to do so. I stand corrected.
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# ? Feb 13, 2023 23:00 |
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Charlz Guybon posted:Ah, I just realized you meant that the Russians are repeating the German mistake, rather than meaning that the Russians are going to break the Ukrainians like they broke the Germans. You didn't really communicate it well. Yeah, that's what I got confused by as well. The analogy definitely makes more sense that way!
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# ? Feb 13, 2023 23:09 |
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https://wartranslated.com/pravda-com-ua-interview-ukrainian-colonel-oleh-faydyuk/ An interview with colonel Oleh Faydyuk, Commander of the 45th Separate Artillery Brigade. This is a unit of towed artillery and anti-tank teams that did not really exist before the war and was rapidly built up during the early part of the conflict.
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# ? Feb 14, 2023 00:58 |
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Aces High posted:We say wrecky up here. Though the last time I heard it spoken was over 10 years ago, but I can't imagine they would've suddenly stopped saying that. Especially since we still say "leftenant" Can confirm
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# ? Feb 14, 2023 02:14 |
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Didn't see if this was posted yet: https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-may-have-lost-an-entire-elite-brigade-near-a-coal-mining-town-in-donbas-ukraine-says/ Russia loses ~5k marine infantry, 155th guards, which were the same unit being sent into Bucha The take is they're cleaning up witnesses of atrocities, but then you read in and the drat thing's been fully restaffed since then and then turned into hamburger again. "[Ukrainian MOD] told Politico: ‘The 155th brigade already had to be restaffed three times. The first time after Irpin and Bucha; the second time they were defeated near Donetsk — they recovered again."
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# ? Feb 14, 2023 19:25 |
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I was gonna say that its been reported that at least one unit at bucha has been erased that way already.
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# ? Feb 14, 2023 21:24 |
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I mean do we know that Prigozhin hasn't just put them to work in the mines
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# ? Feb 15, 2023 01:40 |
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Mirconium posted:Didn't see if this was posted yet: Eh...they lost an elite brigade the first time. The 2nd and 3rd time they were wiped out they were just conscripts with a fancy title.
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# ? Feb 15, 2023 01:45 |
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Charlz Guybon posted:Eh...they lost an elite brigade the first time. The 2nd and 3rd time they were wiped out they were just conscripts with a fancy title. At Vuhledar alone they had two BTGs wrecked. The video counts 11 tanks destroyed, so that's elements of two tank companies, so there were two BTGs involved, both of which are now really short of AFVs and mine clearing vehicles. They'll still have their fire support, but they need to rebuild before they're maneuver formations again.
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# ? Feb 15, 2023 02:23 |
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Highlights from today's SECDEF and CJCS briefing following the contact group meeting. Not a lot in the brief today, all things considered. Intro and excerpts as I choose; I left most of it in. Highlights: -Emphasized wide range of countries donating major items and that 54 countries attended the contact group -SECDEF indicated the US sees nothing to back up rumors that Russia is amassing its air force, due to Russian land casualties. [My note: SECDEF went further to say that Russia hasn't really brought its air force into the fight. I'd say that they have, but after the opening, it has mostly been long-range aviation. Tactical air (fighter-bombers, etc) have been rather limited and risk-averse after taking some losses early on. Yeah, Russia and Ukraine have videos of lobbing unguided rockets parabolically, but that's not really the same as air-ground integration in support of maneuver. Russia has not lost their air forces; they just are not committing tac-air into a ground attack situation where they put them at risk for low reward. Russian CAPs remain active and generally considered a very serious threat to Ukrainian air power] -CJCS doesn't describe the warfare as one of art and maneuver, highlighting the comparatively stagnant lines, artillery, and waves of attacks on prepared defenses. [My note: Emphasis on waves of attacking forces, not "human wave," which is an annoying argument to get into and not what he said] -When asked, no discussion or plan of supplying Ukraine with aircraft right now -Highlights that it is already a massive undertaking to ship, field, and train operations and logistics on a wide variety of ground combat vehicles and air defense systems. -Kyiv is always at risk, but there are not indications and warnings of any imminent ground attack on Kyiv -Bakhmut remains to be seen, despite heavy Russian losses; Russia has a lot of forces and mobilized hundreds of thousands. https://www.defense.gov/News/Transc...y-chairman-joi/ quote:SECRETARY OF DEFENSE LLOYD J. AUSTIN III: Well, thanks, Patrick.
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# ? Feb 15, 2023 02:38 |
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Mirconium posted:"... they recovered again." That's an incredible spin on what happened - they did not "recover", they were "replaced". "Recovered" is the term you use when treatment and rest restore wounded fighters to functional capacity, not when you're basically making an entirely new brigade out of reinforcements.
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# ? Feb 15, 2023 22:08 |
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I'm not going to copy and paste this entire WSJ article because the title says it all: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-has-deployed-97-of-army-in-ukraine-but-is-struggling-to-advance-u-k-says-91086284?mod=mhp Russia Has Deployed 97% of Army in Ukraine but Is Struggling to Advance, U.K. Says quote:“We now estimate 97% of the whole Russian army is in Ukraine,” U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told the British Broadcasting Corp.’s “Today” show on Wednesday.
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# ? Feb 15, 2023 22:35 |
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# ? Jun 6, 2024 04:13 |
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Good. Target rich environment.
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# ? Feb 15, 2023 22:39 |