Ukraine: The Aristoblyats

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OctaMurk: Jun 21, 2013

Karma Comedian posted:

https://twitter.com/grahworin/status/1624105789571858438?t=HM3_1XSP15n5fzvjsSzH5A&s=19

the nuclear threats are coming from inside the democracy

e: im assuming the test launch was planned a long time ago, else just deciding to do an icbm launch at this time would be kinda creepy with whatever getting shot down over north america

OctaMurk fucked around with this message at 03:54 on Feb 13, 2023

# ? Feb 13, 2023 03:49

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# ? Jun 5, 2024 19:22

Hyperlynx: Sep 13, 2015

A.o.D. posted:

yeah I just say recon if reconnaissance is too many syllables for some reason.

I think "wrecky" vs "reecon" is a Commonwealth vs USA difference. "Recce" is used in Australia, too.

I wonder which the Canadians use...

# ? Feb 13, 2023 03:52

Aces High: Mar 26, 2010; Nah! A little chocolate will do

We say wrecky up here. Though the last time I heard it spoken was over 10 years ago, but I can't imagine they would've suddenly stopped saying that. Especially since we still say "leftenant"

# ? Feb 13, 2023 04:05

CommieGIR: Aug 22, 2006; The blue glow is a feature, not a bug; Pillbug

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

America just reminding everyone, huh?

Its more that the solid rockets can go bad over time so best to pull one from inventory and test it, and while you are at it, might as verify it can hit a target.

They do these at least once a year.

# ? Feb 13, 2023 04:38

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

OctaMurk posted:

e: im assuming the test launch was planned a long time ago, else just deciding to do an icbm launch at this time would be kinda creepy with whatever getting shot down over north america

These are the kind of thing planned and also announced to other countries, often over a year in advance. The date may shift slightly, but they are never a surprise launch, and they aren�t even done on a weeks� notice, because they�re so expensive and high profile.

Russia fires theirs into Kamchatka, the US into Kwaj, China has a desert range.

# ? Feb 13, 2023 04:52

Carth Dookie: Jan 28, 2013

Steezo posted:

The war.

*squints at history post civil war*

mmmmm. Personally I don't think they lost hard enough.

# ? Feb 13, 2023 05:13

GD_American: Jul 21, 2004; LISTEN TO WHAT I HAVE TO SAY AS IT'S INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT!

I sure hope someone's doing the math on whether this "drown them in bodies" strategy is actually going to break the Ukrainian ability to defend.

At this point it seems like a race between Russian civil disorder versus the ability of Ukrainians to provide manpower against the zerg rush.

# ? Feb 13, 2023 05:25

Carth Dookie: Jan 28, 2013

Russia appears to be advancing... very very slowly, and paying extremely dearly for it in men and materials. Whatever "surge" this offensive is, doesn't seem to be causing big enough cracks. Ukraine seems to be conceding ground intelligently in anticipation of the resources that are coming to them soon.

Bradleys are already on the trains/on the way there. Leopards are coming next month. Personally I don't think this Russian surge is going to gain much ground, relative to the number of dead Russians it is producing, and then I expect that to be stalled and then reversed as the Bradleys, Leopards and other tanks make it to the field.

I don't expect Russian civil disorder any time soon. Hunger causes unrest, not lack of Prada shoes, and Russia doesn't seem to be going hungry yet, and they're actively reducing the number of mouths they have to feed. Also every dead Russian on the battlefield is one less hungry Russian grumbling in front of the Kremlin.

# ? Feb 13, 2023 05:35

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

Hunger just doesn�t seem like a problem anyway. One of Russia�s strengths is that they can make a lot of food and source their own energy. Keeping people fed and the lights on goes a long way to being more domestically resilient when faced with adversarial sanctions.

# ? Feb 13, 2023 05:42

Carth Dookie: Jan 28, 2013

Yeah.

The more I look at how things are going politically, I see Ukraine/Russia ending up like the Koreas or (and I hate this comparison) Israel.

The tipping point will be if/when Ukraine has enough resources to push Russia out. Russia's stockpile of arms is shrinking all the time and nothing I've seen suggests they have the ability to replace them (besides actual men to fight, for now). Meanwhile Ukraine just has more and more effective and modern tools coming to them all the time.

# ? Feb 13, 2023 05:49

Midjack: Dec 24, 2007

Carth Dookie posted:

Yeah.

The more I look at how things are going politically, I see Ukraine/Russia ending up like the Koreas or (and I hate this comparison) Israel.

The tipping point will be if/when Ukraine has enough resources to push Russia out. Russia's stockpile of arms is shrinking all the time and nothing I've seen suggests they have the ability to replace them (besides actual men to fight, for now). Meanwhile Ukraine just has more and more effective and modern tools coming to them all the time.

Russia just has to hold out through the morning of January 20, 2025. US support can't be relied on after that date.

# ? Feb 13, 2023 05:56

Alan Smithee: Jan 4, 2005; A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

psydude posted:

Ok, so we've landed on "most iconic and culturally defining battles of American history" as an equivalent for what's happening right now in Putin's Special Military Operation.

"do you have an ice cream ship Russia? I have an ice cream ship"

# ? Feb 13, 2023 06:01

Comrade Blyatlov: Aug 4, 2007; should have picked four fingers

Carth Dookie posted:

Russia appears to be advancing... very very slowly, and paying extremely dearly for it in men and materials. Whatever "surge" this offensive is, doesn't seem to be causing big enough cracks. Ukraine seems to be conceding ground intelligently in anticipation of the resources that are coming to them soon.

The hosed up thing is, this is word for word what Zhukov did to break the Germans at Kursk. History repeats itself.

# ? Feb 13, 2023 06:09

Crab Dad: Dec 28, 2002; behold i have tempered and refined thee, but not as silver; as CRAB

A.o.D. posted:

A little over half that number. Although their numbers would have skewed more heavily towards killed, it doesn't really matter because your chances of losing a limb were way higher, so an injury in those days was significantly more likely to permanently end your soldiering career.

It's also important to remember that Grant's strategy was to force the Confederates to battle, even if the ground wasn't perfect. He wanted to make them bleed because he knew that every loss they suffered was irreplaceable.

Also, vvvvvvv

yeah i knew it wasnt quite even but Grant was right even though the cost was terrible the outcome was one step closer to winning

# ? Feb 13, 2023 06:12

Alan Smithee: Jan 4, 2005; A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

Steezo posted:

The war.

shame they won the country

Karma Comedian posted:

https://twitter.com/grahworin/status/1624105789571858438?t=HM3_1XSP15n5fzvjsSzH5A&s=19

Aliens: "hmm yes how quaint. "Minute" man. You humans broadcast your inferiorities, meanwhile our weapons are measured in femtoseconds"

# ? Feb 13, 2023 06:16

bad_fmr: Nov 28, 2007

HolHorsejob posted:

If Russia has displayed anything, it's that there's no limit to the "stick" slider on the stick/carrot spectrum. Apparently you can get whatever you want if you apply an unlimited level of coercion.

And if there are negative consequences from this approach, push the "stick" slider even further to make those go away too.

Officers sold all the carrots to build their dachas so now only sticks remain.

# ? Feb 13, 2023 07:16

EasilyConfused: Nov 21, 2009; one strong toad

Comrade Blyatlov posted:

The hosed up thing is, this is word for word what Zhukov did to break the Germans at Kursk. History repeats itself.

Kursk involved a massive attack by the Germans into the teeth of prepared defenses followed by a Soviet counteroffensive.

I'm not really seeing the parallels.

# ? Feb 13, 2023 13:22

Murgos: Oct 21, 2010

EasilyConfused posted:

Kursk involved a massive attack by the Germans into the teeth of prepared defenses followed by a Soviet counteroffensive.

I'm not really seeing the parallels.

User name post combo? Can�t tell if you�re being facetious.

# ? Feb 13, 2023 14:33

Coasterphreak: May 29, 2007; I like cookies.

Really all that has to dry up is press coverage of it, and that's gonna happen long before January 20 2025.

# ? Feb 13, 2023 14:35

Murgos: Oct 21, 2010

Carth Dookie posted:

Russia appears to be advancing... very very slowly, and paying extremely dearly for it in men and materials. Whatever "surge" this offensive is, doesn't seem to be causing big enough cracks. Ukraine seems to be conceding ground intelligently in anticipation of the resources that are coming to them soon.

The hope being that once Russia has spent themselves attacking they will have hollowed out their defenses and be open for exploitation.

It seems pretty likely.

# ? Feb 13, 2023 14:36

Charlz Guybon: Nov 16, 2010

Murgos posted:

User name post combo? Can�t tell if you�re being facetious.

Ah, I just realized you meant that the Russians are repeating the German mistake, rather than meaning that the Russians are going to break the Ukrainians like they broke the Germans. You didn't really communicate it well.

# ? Feb 13, 2023 14:50

Just Another Lurker: May 1, 2009

What's the feasibility of Ukrainian forces striking for the Sea of Azov (Berdyans'k or Melitopol) and splitting the whole front in two?

# ? Feb 13, 2023 14:56

psydude: Apr 1, 2008

Just Another Lurker posted:

What's the feasibility of Ukrainian forces striking for the Sea of Azov (Berdyans'k or Melitopol) and splitting the whole front in two?

I forget where I was reading it, but yeah there's some speculation among analysts that any major Ukrainian counteroffensive would focus on striking toward Azov and breaking the land bridge to Kherson/Crimea.

psydude fucked around with this message at 15:38 on Feb 13, 2023

# ? Feb 13, 2023 15:35

Wickerman: Feb 26, 2007; Boom, mothafucka!

My general sense is that this is going to be the means by which they will make an assault on Crimea possible, if they truly intend to recapture their territory.

# ? Feb 13, 2023 19:01

DTurtle: Apr 10, 2011

Just Another Lurker posted:

What's the feasibility of Ukrainian forces striking for the Sea of Azov (Berdyans'k or Melitopol) and splitting the whole front in two?

IIRC, there were multiple reports about the planning of the Kharkiv and Kherson counteroffensives last year that said that the Ukrainians (especially Zelenskyy) wanted to also attack there at that time. Apparently the Americans were really adamant about it being a really, really bad idea. They then organized a war game that emphasized how bad of an idea it would be and it was called off in order to concentrate on the other offensives.

Everybody looking at a map can see how effective an offensive to the coast there would be. My impression is that the Ukrainians want and need a real armored fist in order to push through the lines and get to the coast there. If I needed to guess, what I think could happen is that as the Russian offensive falters and the Russian defensive lines get thinner and demoralized, Ukraine will use its first larger groups of Western IFVs and tanks in order to launch a counteroffensive somewhere in that region in order to reach the coast and cut off Crimea.

# ? Feb 13, 2023 20:13

A.o.D.: Jan 15, 2006

Wickerman posted:

My general sense is that this is going to be the means by which they will make an assault on Crimea possible, if they truly intend to recapture their territory.

Whether or not they can is an open question. I don't think there's any value in doubting their intent to do so.

A.o.D. fucked around with this message at 20:20 on Feb 13, 2023

# ? Feb 13, 2023 20:16

Tuna-Fish: Sep 13, 2017

Just Another Lurker posted:

What's the feasibility of Ukrainian forces striking for the Sea of Azov (Berdyans'k or Melitopol) and splitting the whole front in two?

That is for multiple reasons the most desirable place for the Ukrainians to attack. Russia knows this too.

# ? Feb 13, 2023 20:47

Wickerman: Feb 26, 2007; Boom, mothafucka!

A.o.D. posted:

Whether or not they can is an open question. I don't think there's any value in doubting their intent to do so.

I stand corrected.

# ? Feb 13, 2023 23:00

EasilyConfused: Nov 21, 2009; one strong toad

Charlz Guybon posted:

Ah, I just realized you meant that the Russians are repeating the German mistake, rather than meaning that the Russians are going to break the Ukrainians like they broke the Germans. You didn't really communicate it well.

Yeah, that's what I got confused by as well. The analogy definitely makes more sense that way!

# ? Feb 13, 2023 23:09

golden bubble: Jun 3, 2011; yospos

https://wartranslated.com/pravda-com-ua-interview-ukrainian-colonel-oleh-faydyuk/

An interview with colonel Oleh Faydyuk, Commander of the 45th Separate Artillery Brigade. This is a unit of towed artillery and anti-tank teams that did not really exist before the war and was rapidly built up during the early part of the conflict.

# ? Feb 14, 2023 00:58

My Spirit Otter: Jun 15, 2006; CANADA DOESN'T GET PENS LIKE THIS

SKILCRAFT KREW Reppin' Quality Blind Made American Products. Bitch.

Aces High posted:

We say wrecky up here. Though the last time I heard it spoken was over 10 years ago, but I can't imagine they would've suddenly stopped saying that. Especially since we still say "leftenant"

Can confirm

# ? Feb 14, 2023 02:14

DearSirXNORMadam: Aug 1, 2009

Didn't see if this was posted yet:

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-may-have-lost-an-entire-elite-brigade-near-a-coal-mining-town-in-donbas-ukraine-says/

Russia loses ~5k marine infantry, 155th guards, which were the same unit being sent into Bucha

The :tinfoil:

take is they're cleaning up witnesses of atrocities, but then you read in and the drat thing's been fully restaffed since then and then turned into hamburger again.

"[Ukrainian MOD] told Politico: �The 155th brigade already had to be restaffed three times. The first time after Irpin and Bucha; the second time they were defeated near Donetsk � they recovered again."

# ? Feb 14, 2023 19:25

in a well actually: Jan 26, 2011; dude, you gotta end it on the rhyme

I was gonna say that its been reported that at least one unit at bucha has been erased that way already.

# ? Feb 14, 2023 21:24

Alan Smithee: Jan 4, 2005; A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

I mean do we know that Prigozhin hasn't just put them to work in the mines

# ? Feb 15, 2023 01:40

Charlz Guybon: Nov 16, 2010

Mirconium posted:

Didn't see if this was posted yet:

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-may-have-lost-an-entire-elite-brigade-near-a-coal-mining-town-in-donbas-ukraine-says/

Russia loses ~5k marine infantry, 155th guards, which were the same unit being sent into Bucha

The take is they're cleaning up witnesses of atrocities, but then you read in and the drat thing's been fully restaffed since then and then turned into hamburger again.

"[Ukrainian MOD] told Politico: �The 155th brigade already had to be restaffed three times. The first time after Irpin and Bucha; the second time they were defeated near Donetsk � they recovered again."

Eh...they lost an elite brigade the first time. The 2nd and 3rd time they were wiped out they were just conscripts with a fancy title.

# ? Feb 15, 2023 01:45

mllaneza: Apr 28, 2007; Veteran, Bermuda Triangle Expeditionary Force, 1993-1952

Charlz Guybon posted:

Eh...they lost an elite brigade the first time. The 2nd and 3rd time they were wiped out they were just conscripts with a fancy title.

At Vuhledar alone they had two BTGs wrecked. The video counts 11 tanks destroyed, so that's elements of two tank companies, so there were two BTGs involved, both of which are now really short of AFVs and mine clearing vehicles. They'll still have their fire support, but they need to rebuild before they're maneuver formations again.

# ? Feb 15, 2023 02:23

mlmp08: Jul 11, 2004; Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration; Nap Ghost

Highlights from today's SECDEF and CJCS briefing following the contact group meeting. Not a lot in the brief today, all things considered. Intro and excerpts as I choose; I left most of it in.

Highlights:
-Emphasized wide range of countries donating major items and that 54 countries attended the contact group
-SECDEF indicated the US sees nothing to back up rumors that Russia is amassing its air force, due to Russian land casualties. [My note: SECDEF went further to say that Russia hasn't really brought its air force into the fight. I'd say that they have, but after the opening, it has mostly been long-range aviation. Tactical air (fighter-bombers, etc) have been rather limited and risk-averse after taking some losses early on. Yeah, Russia and Ukraine have videos of lobbing unguided rockets parabolically, but that's not really the same as air-ground integration in support of maneuver. Russia has not lost their air forces; they just are not committing tac-air into a ground attack situation where they put them at risk for low reward. Russian CAPs remain active and generally considered a very serious threat to Ukrainian air power]
-CJCS doesn't describe the warfare as one of art and maneuver, highlighting the comparatively stagnant lines, artillery, and waves of attacks on prepared defenses. [My note: Emphasis on waves of attacking forces, not "human wave," which is an annoying argument to get into and not what he said]
-When asked, no discussion or plan of supplying Ukraine with aircraft right now
-Highlights that it is already a massive undertaking to ship, field, and train operations and logistics on a wide variety of ground combat vehicles and air defense systems.
-Kyiv is always at risk, but there are not indications and warnings of any imminent ground attack on Kyiv
-Bakhmut remains to be seen, despite heavy Russian losses; Russia has a lot of forces and mobilized hundreds of thousands.

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transc...y-chairman-joi/

quote:

SECRETARY OF DEFENSE LLOYD J. AUSTIN III: Well, thanks, Patrick.

Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. We've just concluded our ninth meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. I'd like to thank Ukrainian Minister of Defense Reznikov and his team for once again joining us today.

Now, next week, the world will mark a grim milestone. It will have been a year since Russia invaded its peaceful neighbor, Ukraine, and our hearts are with the families of all the Ukrainian soldiers killed and wounded fighting to defend their country, their sovereignty and their fellow citizens. And we mourn alongside Ukrainian civilians who have lost children and parents and loved ones as Russia has deliberately attacked civilian targets.

Russia has inflicted a year of tragedy and terror on Ukraine, but the people of Ukraine have inspired the world. We deeply admire the resilience of the Ukrainian people and their determination to defend their territory, their sovereignty and their freedom.

And nations of goodwill have rallied together to reject Putin's vision of a world of chaos where tyrants can trample borders and conquer their peaceful neighbors and break the rules of war. And that's what this Contact Group represents. Together, we have made clear that we will support Ukraine's self-defense for the long haul, and we will move out with the urgency that the moment demands.

Earlier this month, the United States announced another round of security assistance for Ukraine. The presidential drawdown announcement included more ammunition for HIMARS. It included 190 heavy machine guns to counter unmanned aerial systems from Russia or Iran, 181 MRAP vehicles and more than 2,000 anti-tank munitions and other key capabilities. We also added $1.75 billion in Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative funds for critical air defense capabilities, including counter-UAS systems and more.

And at today's Contact Group, we joined again with our valued allies and partners to make sure that Ukraine has what it needs, when it needs it, and we continue to work together to provide Ukraine with full combat-critical capabilities, and not just equipment. And that's why we discussed synchronizing our donations into an integrated training plan, and you can see the importance of our coordination and our common efforts to meet Ukraine's needs for armor.

Among the members of this Contact Group, we have given Ukraine's defenders more than eight combat brigades. This includes major contributions from the United States of Strykers and Bradleys and Abrams tanks. It includes the U.K.'s donation of Challenger tanks and the contribution of Senator Armored Personnel Carriers that Canada announced last month. It also includes the refurbished T-72 tanks that the United States, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic are in the process of delivering, as well as Poland's latest donation of T-72s, and it includes the important steps from Germany, Poland, Canada, Portugal, Spain, Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands on Leopard battle tanks.

Now, we also heard today about significant new air defense donations. That includes Italy and France, which jointly announced that they will provide Ukraine with the SAMP/T air defense system, and France also announced that it will work with Australia to ramp up 155 millimeter ammunition production to support Ukraine.

And finally, let me also thank Norway, which just announced that it will provide 7.5 billion euros in military and civilian assistance to Ukraine over the coming five years. Now, that's a very significant commitment.

Now, all of these capabilities will continue to be important for Ukraine's success on the battlefield, but as I said last month in Ramstein, this isn't about one single capability; it's about delivering all the capabilities that we've promised, it's about integrating all these systems together, and it's about working with the Ukrainians to help them fight for their freedom.

Now, we also had an important discussion today on our ongoing work on accountability. It's a priority for me and my Contact Group colleagues to ensure that our donations continue to be used as intended, and that we move proactively to prevent arms proliferation. And we will keep working with our Ukrainian partners to ensure that all of the equipment that we're providing continues to reach the brave troops on the front lines.

Now, a year ago, Putin assumed that Ukraine was an easy target. Putin assumed that Kiev would easily fall. And Putin assumed that the world would stand by. But the Kremlin was wrong on every count. Over the past year Ukraine's soldiers have fought valiantly for their country. Ukraine's people have shown deep courage in the face of Russian cruelty. And countries of goodwill have rallied to defend an open order of rules and rights.

Together we seek a world where disputes are resolved peacefully, where sovereignty is respected, where borders are honored and where civilians are protected. Those are the values of this contact group. We stand united in our support for Ukraine's fight for freedom. And we will stand together, united and resolute, for as long as it takes.

And with that, let me turn it over to General Milley.

GENERAL MARK A. MILLEY: Thank you, Secretary Austin, and thank you for your leadership, leading this ninth successive contact group. This is an incredible level of effort by many, many countries. And it wouldn't be happening without the leadership of Secretary Austin.

Good afternoon, everyone, and let me start by giving my condolences to the people of Turkiye and Syria, with the tragic loss of life and suffering that has occurred because of the recent earthquake.

Also suffering are the Ukrainian people. We are approaching the one-year anniversary of Russia's illegal invasion of a sovereign nation, the sovereign nation of Ukraine. And I want to thank the ministers of defense and the chiefs of defense that are here today representing 54 countries that continue to participate in this group. The actions of those leaders over the last year have contributed substantially, with real effect on the battlefield. And they collectively have demonstrated unwavering commitment to the defense of Ukraine.

And a special thank you to the Ukrainian Minister of Defense Reznikov and his deputy CHOD (Chief of Defense), who continue to display exceptional leadership, and my friend General Zaluzhnyi, who is on the battlefield every day, leading his country's defense.

Ten days from now is the one-year anniversary when Russia brutally, illegally and a completely unprovoked way invaded the sovereign nation of Ukraine. As the secretary just pointed out, Putin thought he could defeat Ukraine quickly, fracture the NATO alliance and act with impunity. He was wrong. Ukraine remains free. They remain independent. NATO and this coalition has never been stronger. And Russia is now a global pariah. And the world remains inspired by Ukrainian bravery and resilience.

In short, Russia has lost. They've lost strategically, operationally and tactically. And they are paying an enormous price on the battlefield.

But until Putin ends his war of choice, the international community will continue to support Ukraine with the equipment and capabilities it needs to defend itself. Through this group, we are collectively supporting Ukraine's ability to defend its territory, protect its citizens and liberate their occupied areas.

In the face of a barbaric Russian invasion, Ukrainians remain resilient. The nation of Ukraine is united for one single purpose, to expel the Russian forces from their territory and to defend themselves.

For Ukraine, this is not a war of aggression. It is a war of defense. For Russia, it is a war of aggression. The Russian military is paying tremendous costs in their war of aggression. And now they have resorted to sending conscripts and prisoners to imminent death.

In recent months the group who gather here today pledge to provide significant quantities of battlefield capabilities, tanks, air defense and munitions. Eleven countries have pledged tanks. Twenty-two have pledged infantry fighting vehicles. Sixteen pledged artillery and munitions. And nine more pledged air defense artillery.

The group is focused, focused on delivering the capabilities committed and efficiently providing the training, the spare parts, the sustainment, logistics necessary for the full employment of these systems. Training, maintaining and sustaining Ukraine remains key for Ukraine to prevail.

Throughout this war Ukraine has shown incredible resourcefulness in how they integrate varied capabilities to adapt to the changing dynamics of this battlefield. Ukrainians have combined unbreakable will with innovative tactics and empowered their leaders to liberate their own country.

Russia, on contrast, is waging a very costly war of attrition, while Ukraine is effectively leveraging their asymmetric advantages in order to defend itself. And the most important asymmetric advantage they have is courage, resilience and tactical skill.

This war is extremely dynamic. And Ukraine today is fighting while training and evolving future operations. Ukraine will integrate recent commitments of armored vehicles, infantry fighting vehicles and tanks with fires to achieve the effect of synchronized ground maneuver.

While Russia has waged this war for far too long, they will not outlast the Ukrainian people nor the group of allies and partners that met today. The purpose for the United States and allies, as said by our political leadership, is very simple. It's to uphold the rules-based international order, an order that rejects the idea that big, strong, powerful nations can attack other smaller countries, that borders shall not change just by the use of aggressive military force. This is the very underlying, founding principle of the United Nations at the end of World War II.

Ukraine does not stand alone. Fifty-four countries met today to ensure that Ukraine can defend itself and the principles that guide international conduct. And those principles will be upheld. We will remain a unified coalition. We will continue to uphold the values of sovereignty and freedom. And we will continue to support Ukraine.

Thank you, and I welcome your questions.

STAFF: Okay, we'll go to Tara Copp, AP.

Q: Secretary Austin, you said earlier this is a crucial moment for Ukraine and that the allies need to get air defenses and munitions into Ukraine now. What are you seeing from Russia that makes this moment different?

And the NATO secretary general has already warned that Ukraine is burning through the munitions faster than a rate that the allies can supply it. Will you at some point need to ask Ukraine to do more with less?

...

SEC. AUSTIN: So in terms of where we are -- thanks, Tara. In terms of where we are in the fight, what we've seen over the last several months is a contested battlefield, we see a lot of activity in the Bakhmut area, which is where Russia is focusing most of its effort. We see Russia introducing a number of new troops to the battlefield. Many of those troops are ill-trained and ill-equipped. And so their casualty rate has been really high.

What Ukraine wants to do in the -- at the first possible moment is to establish or create momentum and establish conditions on the battlefield that continue to be in its favor. And so we expect to see them conduct an offensive sometime in the spring.

And because of that, you know, we, all the partners in the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, have been working hard to ensure that they have the armored capability, the fires, the sustainment to be able to be effective in creating the effects on the battlefield that they want to create.

And so we believe that there'll be a window of opportunity for them to exercise initiative and then change -- or continue to create the right conditions on the battlefield here.

In terms of munitions, this has been a tough fight throughout. You know, we've been -- Ukraine has been at this for a year. And so they have used a lot of artillery ammunition. We're going to do everything we can, working with our international partners, to ensure that we get them as much ammunition as quickly as possible and that we'll do everything we can to sustain our efforts there as well.

We are working with the Ukrainian soldiers in various places throughout Europe to emphasize additional training on maneuver so that as they place more emphasis on maneuver and shaping the battlefield with fires and then maneuvering, there's a good chance that they'll require less artillery munitions, but that's left to be seen.

So we're going to do everything we can to make sure that they have what they need to be successful, and that's what we continue to emphasize here in the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, and we think the training will pay additional dividends as well.

...

STAFF: Okay, let's go to (Dmytro ?), Ukrinform.

Q: Thank you for your (inaudible). National News Agency of Ukraine, (inaudible). To Mr. Secretary, was the question of the plane supplies -- I mean, combat jet supplies to Ukraine, was it discussed or not? And what kind of security circumstances should be created inside Ukraine to deploy new type of aircrafts of such kind? Does it mean that it's possible, after the integrated air defense system is created?

And to General Milley, if I may, what is your risk assessment for supply routes of the delivery of Western equipment and ammunition to Ukraine and how it could be made more secured? Thank you.

SEC. AUSTIN: So on the issue of aircraft, I don't have any announcements to make on aircraft today. We're going to continue to work with Ukraine to address Ukraine's most pressing needs. Again, you know, they're contemplating an offensive in the spring, and that's just weeks away. And so we have a lot to get done.

So if you think about the numbers of systems that we're bringing together -- Bradleys, Strykers, Marders, CB90s, 113s, artillery, and the list goes on and on -- it's a monumental task to bring all those systems together, get the troops trained on those platforms, to make sure we have sustainment for all of those systems and get those systems into the fight. So that's really the focus of our of our conversation today.

GEN. MILLEY: So (Dmytro ?), lines of communication in warfare, in combat are always subject to enemy attack. No different here. And the lines of communication that stretch through the western portions of Ukraine are subject to Russian attack -- attack from the air, attack from artillery, attack from Special Operations Forces, et cetera.

So the key to ensure that the supplies get through -- maintain good operational security, vary your times, don't set patterns, take different routes, and make sure you disperse your force so that you have small penny packets, as opposed to one large, massive convoy.

The security from the Polish border or any other border, Romania or anywhere, that security is a part of the security plan for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. They pick the stuff up and they do that, and they practice all the good tactics, techniques and procedures that I just described. I would say it's not without risk, but it's moderate, and it's been successful so far to get through.

Q: Thank you.

STAFF: Let's go to Felicia Schwartz, Financial Times.

Q: Thank you. First, for Secretary Austin, we've heard from Western officials that Russia's Air Force is well intact, and that the Russians are preparing to launch an air campaign as its land forces are depleted. Where is Russia amassing aircraft ahead of the offensive? How soon could this begin? Has this hastened the need to provide air defense to Ukraine? And has enough assistance been provided so that Ukraine is ready to defend against it?

And then for Chairman Milley, does Russia have the right equipment to pose a threat to the Ukrainians and breakthrough in the Donbas? And separately, but relatedly, is Ukraine going to get enough equipment in enough time and have a big enough force on the ground to be able to have a serious counteroffensive?

SEC. AUSTIN: Thanks, Felicia. In terms of whether or not Russia is massing its aircraft for some massive aerial attack, we don't currently see that. We do know that Russia has a substantial number of aircraft in its inventory and a lot of capability left. That's why we've emphasized that, you know, we need to do everything that we can to get Ukraine as much air defense capability as we possibly can. And recently, you've seen us step up and offer Patriots. You've seen other countries come forward with SAMP/T and IRIS-T. But it's not enough, and we're going to keep pushing until we get more because that threat is out there. But again, many countries have stepped up to the plate thus far. Our effort currently is to get this -- these capabilities into country as quickly as we can, and then integrate those capabilities so we have -- truly have an integrated air and missile defense capability.

And I would add that Ukraine's done a credible job of intercepting a lot of the rockets and missiles that have been launched by Russia in those recent attacks. But again, we want to make sure that they have the ability to protect themselves going forward in the event that Russia tries to introduce its Air Force into this fight. They haven't done so thus far because Ukraine's air defenses have been pretty gosh darn effective, as you know.

GEN. MILLEY: So Felicia, on whether or not the Russians have the capability and equipment, et cetera to continue the attack in the Donbas -- well, they are attacking the Donbas right now. Their progress is slow. It's a war of attrition. They're taking heavy casualties. Their leadership and morale is not great, and they're struggling mightily. However, they do have numbers, and as you know, President Putin did a call-up of several hundred thousand, and those folks have been arriving on the battlefield. So they do have numbers, and whether or not they're successful in pressing the fight, that remains to be seen. But that fight has been going on, and it's a slow, grinding battle of attrition in that general area.

For the Ukrainians, I don't want to project forward what the Ukrainians may or may not do. As you know from this particular conference here, we are plussing them up with a significant amount of capabilities, with ground-maneuver artillery, et cetera. What they do with that, that'll be up to the Ukrainians in the coming weeks and months

STAFF: We have time for one more. Let's go to Marcus Price at ARD television.

...

GEN. MILLEY: And Marcus, on the issue of the Russian offensive, this -- this offensive that you see ongoing right now generally in the Bakhmut area, you know, from Kharkiv all the way down to Kherson the front line is quite stable, even though very violent and a lot of fighting. It's relatively stable. Most of the dynamic movement back and forth is in -- generally in the vicinity of Bakhmut. The Ukrainians are holding. They're fighting the defense. The Russians, primarily the Wagner Group are attacking, but there's a -- what -- what I would describe it as is a very significant grinding battle of attrition with very high casualties, especially on the Russian side. There�s no fancy arts of maneuver going on here. This is frontal attacks, wave attacks, lots of artillery with extremely high levels of casualties in that particular area.

And how long that will last is difficult to say, actually. It's been going on for weeks, and I think it'll continue to go on until either the Russians culminate -- I don't think the Ukrainians will just collapse or fold; I think they're going to continue to fight. So that's a battle that we're paying attention to very, very closely and making sure that the Ukrainians have the capability to continue to defend.

As far as Kyiv, I'm not going to wonder what intelligence we have or don't have. I would just say that right now, there's always a potential threat. There's clearly air threats, the missile attack threats. Kyiv is the capital, and that was a significant objective early in the war. So I would never discount Russian capabilities to attack Kyiv, but right now, we're not seeing any significant indicators and warnings.

STAFF: Ladies and gentlemen, that is all the time we have available today. This concludes our press briefing.

# ? Feb 15, 2023 02:38

Kith: Sep 17, 2009; You never learn anything
by doing it right.

Mirconium posted:

"... they recovered again."

That's an incredible spin on what happened - they did not "recover", they were "replaced". "Recovered" is the term you use when treatment and rest restore wounded fighters to functional capacity, not when you're basically making an entirely new brigade out of reinforcements.

# ? Feb 15, 2023 22:08

psydude: Apr 1, 2008

I'm not going to copy and paste this entire WSJ article because the title says it all:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-has-deployed-97-of-army-in-ukraine-but-is-struggling-to-advance-u-k-says-91086284?mod=mhp

Russia Has Deployed 97% of Army in Ukraine but Is Struggling to Advance, U.K. Says

quote:

“We now estimate 97% of the whole Russian army is in Ukraine,” U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told the British Broadcasting Corp.’s “Today” show on Wednesday.

# ? Feb 15, 2023 22:35

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# ? Jun 5, 2024 19:22

Crab Dad: Dec 28, 2002; behold i have tempered and refined thee, but not as silver; as CRAB

Good. Target rich environment.

# ? Feb 15, 2023 22:39

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Internet VFW > Ukraine: The Aristoblyats

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