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MJBuddy posted:Yeah thats not true. If your matchmaker is correctly plotting out even probability of wins, the likelihood of going 0-5 over any stretch is just over 3% or 1 out of 33 for any stretch of 5 games. If you're observing 5 loss streaks or 6 loss streaks, something broke structurally (you could be personally be playing below expectation due to champ select or tired or playing on tilt, whatever). Especially in competitive. if you roll for a 3% chance 23 times, you're going to hit the 3% chance at least once half the time
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Feb 17, 2023 02:03
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i had a 38-0 push game as ball where we won easily and then followed that up with a 19-10 control game where we lost and my dps told me to never pick ball again and i tilted so hard i had to go for a walk
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Feb 17, 2023 02:13
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if each of your games is an even chance to win and you play 45 games, you have about a 50% chance to go on at least one 5-game losing streak within that sample https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-calculators/streak-calculator/ you should expect and embrace big losing streaks as just how even games work!
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Feb 17, 2023 02:15
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comedyblissoption posted:3% is a pretty decent chance if you play the game a lot! yeah, like, i dunno what it's like in OW specifically, but anyone trying to rank up seriously in league is going to be logging in hundreds and hundreds of games per season, and those are generally lasting a lot longer than the average ranked OW game the one time i gave climbing a serious shot had me clocking in at something around 450 games solid, and that was with me playing a fairly casual three games a day for months
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Feb 17, 2023 02:18
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Jimbot posted:That win 3 as 3 is such a dumb goddamn weekly and the counter doesn't help poo poo. It doesn't even track the individual wins on each role. It only counts up if you win them in groups. So you have to win as tank, dps and support in order for it to count up.
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Feb 17, 2023 02:29
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I hate that particular challenge because I'm a tank both terrible and unlucky. So it takes me five times longer to get the three tank wins as each of the other two roles. (Still haven't gotten a third this week.)
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Feb 17, 2023 03:14
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MJBuddy posted:Yeah thats not true. If your matchmaker is correctly plotting out even probability of wins, the likelihood of going 0-5 over any stretch is just over 3% or 1 out of 33 for any stretch of 5 games. If you're observing 5 loss streaks or 6 loss streaks, something broke structurally (you could be personally be playing below expectation due to champ select or tired or playing on tilt, whatever). Especially in competitive. what just going off of what you said: if you play 5 games a day for a month you will experience an 0-5 streak (all other things being equal) on average once in that time. it's extremely within the realm of normal variance.
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Feb 17, 2023 05:06
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Also being really on one day will set you up for a higher chance of a down streak the next day. Matchmaking can't get a read on your state of being.
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Feb 17, 2023 05:18
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Can only speak for myself, but it feels like they really improved matchmaking and ranking at gold/plat levels this season. Last two seasons I started in Silver 3 Support and hit a hard wall at Gold 3 despite playing enough to finish the battlepass two seasons in a row. This season I started in Silver again, am currently BP lvl 33, and have already made it to Plat 3 on support with no signs of slowing down. I haven't really altered my play significantly beyond feeling more in tune with my random teammates about 75% of the time. Fewer blowout matches, more competitive ones, and more come from behind victories than previous seasons.
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Feb 17, 2023 05:22
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Feb 17, 2023 05:33
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Herstory Begins Now posted:what I guess the question is if something happens once a month do you consider that typical. I don't? No one here in practice seems to. The question is whether an event is remote enough to be more likely a cause of a systemic problem or variance. It's a more Bayesian question than just how often things are occurring. Something you expect to happen once a month should not shock you. Something you expect to occur once a month taking place immediately after a change was implemented in the matchmaking system would more likely be something systemic. Personal example: I lost a few games with Orisa to start the season, probably because she's a little weaker and I had just come back after a few weeks off. I swapped over to play Hamster a few games due to how sturdy he's felt, and lost like 7 games in a row (because I suck with them). It's not normal variance, I'm just poor at the champ play. I wish the matchmaker had updated more aggressively than it did, but alas. So to bring that back (because it's late and I get rambly when I'm tired): "am I more likely to be playing better/worse, is the system not producing even matches or is it just luck?" And I think a 1/33 is a lower chance than the other two likely options. Of course all of my win streaks are me finally hitting the next level and all of my lose streaks are the matchmaker sandbagging me, as is law.
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Feb 17, 2023 06:52
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historically, 3% was a shockingly higher chance than Civilization players thought anyways, just plug numbers into that sports bet streak calculator. streaks (winning or losing) are way more likely than people think
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Feb 17, 2023 06:57
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Herstory Begins Now posted:what Yeah, but I don't think for the sake of the current condition of the matchmaker in OW2 that we are talking about an average of once in that time. I think we are talking about an average of 10 times in that time, with some being even larger streaks at an exponentially lower chance of occurring supposing everything is working correctly. Which it isn't.
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Feb 17, 2023 07:00
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I guess I'm on the other side of matchmaking because I've gone like 15-3 in comp recently. I only started playing comp this season and got to plat 5 tonight, which feels real nice. The game is not super easy for a new player so it's nice to start getting better.
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Feb 17, 2023 07:05
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The only way to win at Overwatch is not to play.
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Feb 17, 2023 07:27
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I should buy some microtransactions to appease the matchmaker.
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Feb 17, 2023 07:54
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0-5 is normal, as is 5-0 you lose the vast majority of 20 games and its time to go for a walk. Either you're loving up and not noticing or the universe is telling you to chill out and play something else for a week.
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Feb 17, 2023 11:12
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Yeah, we're not talking an 0-5 here.  There's a bunch more of these on earlier days too. It's a consistent pattern over the course of the whole week. Either I got brain damaged and am suddenly worse at literally everything, or the matchmaking is just hosed. Either way, I should definitely play something else instead. Maybe they'll unfuck their matchmaker eventually.
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Feb 17, 2023 11:22
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Yeah, worth noting that the S3 change did absolutely gently caress the matchmaker. Keeps chucking people in silver/gold into masters games.
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Feb 17, 2023 11:54
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dogstile posted:Yeah, worth noting that the S3 change did absolutely gently caress the matchmaker. Keeps chucking people in silver/gold into masters games. Guess I picked a good time to take a break, lmao.
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Feb 17, 2023 12:05
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brig guide! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4gtwE_ESAO8
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Feb 17, 2023 17:00
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Watching the first 15 seconds of the video is "yep, that's how I play Brigitte. hold down left mouse button while chasing down enemies." If you manage to hit two enemies for a decent amount of damage, or even killing one, you're guaranteed to get play of the game. She can get shut down something fierce but if you manage to avoid that you can get some really impressive healing and damage numbers.
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Feb 17, 2023 17:12
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Very helpful video, thanks. Just made it to masters support for the first time running Zen mercy and brig.
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Feb 17, 2023 18:09
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Jack Trades posted:Yeah, we're not talking an 0-5 here. Looks like you aren’t very good op
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Feb 17, 2023 19:31
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SadisTech posted:The last match I had before calling it last night had a dps Moira who, while the primalling Winston was solo focusing me around and around the point on Ilios Ruins, was following us holding succ on the Winston and doing no healing whatsoever. I think they had around 3.5K total heals by the end of three rounds. Yeah I had a real bad stretch of tank placement games and I'm down in silver from plat and this is the worst, DPS Moira's were bad in OW1 but the misleading nature of the scoreboard makes them think they are far better then they are. Like sure you have a ton of elims but are those elims that we would of gotten without you even though you right clicked them for 20 damage while I was at 10% life for a solid minute? I've died numerous times as tank now not even in that dangerous situations and I'll watch a Moira dps ball float over my corpse not even after any enemy in particular just trying to rack up more dps score.
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Feb 17, 2023 19:48
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Encouraging Brig play is Haram.
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Feb 17, 2023 19:59
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leftist heap posted:Looks like you aren’t very good op https://youtu.be/fuV1ZYvK5qI
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Feb 17, 2023 21:14
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Using AI to rip off professional voice actors is a poo poo thing to do btw.
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Feb 17, 2023 23:01
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100% agree, but it doesn't even sound like Moira.
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Feb 17, 2023 23:11
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I get that some days are frustrating, but if you find yourself constantly bemoaning other things day in and day out as the reason you don't do well/climb, you have to take a step back to acknowledge that you're the reason you aren't doing well and climbing. As long as there are other people higher than you, clearly there is more you can be doing. Either just stop playing because the process of becoming better is no longer fun, play a different mode, or stop and think more about how to improve
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Feb 17, 2023 23:16
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Or just stop caring about climbing. If you've played 1000+ hours of Overwatch, you won't be getting better at it, just older.
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Feb 17, 2023 23:26
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was playing some dogshit stuck in hell bronze 5 last night. had a good game so we all teamed up. couldnt start the new game since there was a rank diff. Couldnt figure out who it was until a dps piped up and was like oh im in masters thats why we cant start then left wtf lol? also i know im getting better cuz last night someone said i was a good tank and friended me DURING the match also rein ftw still
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Feb 17, 2023 23:28
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getting better is basically just a continuous series of One Weird Trick and consistently doing them
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Feb 17, 2023 23:30
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Getting better requires an investment of effort and time, of which I don't care to spend any on OW anymore lol. Gimme that mindless PvE poo poo asap, Blizzard. Slackers.
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Feb 17, 2023 23:32
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No matter how much I play I'll still be a useless piece of poo poo so it really doesn't matter
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Feb 17, 2023 23:48
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Issaries posted:Or just stop caring about climbing. Eh, if all you're doing is playing, then you won't get better. There's a time commitment where you need to do vod reviews and maybe even take it more seriously with scrims (and reviewing vods of scrims) to get better. I know i'm hardstuck where i am (I haven't even played comp for months, maybe i'm diamond?) because i am way too busy with life, so i will be hardstuck forever until i do that poo poo, i just don't have time with work and family  At some point, you aren't going to improve micro much anymore, but most people's macro play is bad (mine included). That's why vod reviews are important. Playing over and over and over again gives you diminishing returns on micro and doesn't help much with macro. Edit: Speaking of which, here's a good Spilo video on a GM tracer, he does both micro and macro commentary: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UdXAuEUjnE Mister Fister fucked around with this message at 00:24 on Feb 18, 2023 |
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Feb 18, 2023 00:22
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If I was gonna spend the effort and time to get good at a competitive game again it wouldn't be overwatch. It started life as a more casual game that blizzard have retroactively tried to make an eSport and they have shown they are not good at game or meta balance. You're just setting yourself up for an incredibly frustrating time. At this point I play ranked not to climb but just to get well balanced matches. On the topic of matchmaking though things still seem very weird despite their claims of it being fixed. Still getting very regular players completely popping off with 20-30 kills more than anyone else. This happened in season 1 and 2 but not nearly as often. I also occasionally get players who seem to barely know what their characters abilities do although that could be down to people trying to de-rank I guess.
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Feb 18, 2023 12:19
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Issaries posted:Or just stop caring about climbing. Mega Comrade posted:At this point I play ranked not to climb but just to get well balanced matches. This is me. I think the last season I was maybe still getting better was season 5. And I usually only play comp just so we get to play both sides and don't have people dropping in and out. I've had a lot of very fun games where we lost, but being on the winning team in a stomp is about as boring as it gets. I also never join voice chat and mute text chat so I don't have to listen to the complaints. I just want to shoot folks in a balanced match.
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Feb 18, 2023 16:20
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Mega Comrade posted:It started life as a more casual game that blizzard have retroactively tried to make an eSport and they have shown they are not good at game or meta balance. You're just setting yourself up for an incredibly frustrating time. Remember when we had different groups running comp Overwatch but Blizzard didn't want anything but sole control and then proceeded to do basically nothing with OWL.
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Feb 18, 2023 19:42
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Mystery Heroes is great because you get to play heroes you don't normally ever play because lol meta bullshit.
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Feb 18, 2023 20:14
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