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Bremen
Jul 20, 2006

Our God..... is an awesome God
I honestly have no idea how to estimate how much I'll need to retire. So much of it seems dependent on the unknowns of inflation rate, market performance, lifespan/medical technologies, and government social programs in 30 years. Sure $3-5 million sounds ridiculous but if inflation is high and medical advances give another 10-20 years maybe.

So honestly my plan is to try to emulate Scrooge McDuck as much as I can and if I drastically overshoot to take up philanthropy.

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WithoutTheFezOn
Aug 28, 2005
Oh no

Bremen posted:

I honestly have no idea how to estimate how much I'll need to retire. So much of it seems dependent on the unknowns of inflation rate, market performance, lifespan/medical technologies, and government social programs in 30 years.
Not only that but you have to guess at those numbers for an additional 20-35 years after retirement.

Have fun!

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Unsinkabear posted:

Just put me out of my misery now, jesus loving christ

In addition to what others said, the poll question was "retire with ease" not "retire comfortably" or "retire with a basic level of financial security." With ease is doing a lot of heavy lifting there; a lot of respondents are going to interpret that as meaning "how much money does it take to consider yourself rich?"

skipdogg
Nov 29, 2004
Resident SRT-4 Expert

KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:

To be fair those median households are supremely hosed

It's always the people in the middle that get hosed the hardest. My MIL didn't save for retirement. She has nothing but a 1200 dollar a month SS check she took when she was 62. Couldn't even wait till 65 for the full retirement benefit. She's eligible for all sorts of extra poo poo though. Medicaid, food stamps, commodities, meals on wheels, who knows what else. She lives with her 95 year old dad, and her retirement plan is to live with us when paw passes if she doesn't need assisted care by that point. In some ways she's better off than someone who is just barely outside the limits of all the assistance she gets.

Thufir
May 19, 2004

"The fucking Mayans were right."
Obviously there are all sorts of potential hell outcomes in the future but I think it’s pretty unlikely that median-wealthy 70 year olds end up impoverished because even in the future that cohort will be politically potent enough to protect social program benefits for itself.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

skipdogg posted:

It's always the people in the middle that get hosed the hardest. My MIL didn't save for retirement. She has nothing but a 1200 dollar a month SS check she took when she was 62. Couldn't even wait till 65 for the full retirement benefit. She's eligible for all sorts of extra poo poo though. Medicaid, food stamps, commodities, meals on wheels, who knows what else. She lives with her 95 year old dad, and her retirement plan is to live with us when paw passes if she doesn't need assisted care by that point. In some ways she's better off than someone who is just barely outside the limits of all the assistance she gets.

On the one hand, this is why means testing sucks, it creates thresholds and tons of paperwork and mostly serves to punish people for doing slightly better than awful. It really really sucks to feel like if you can do a little better you'll lose a benefit you need or will probably need and may not be able to get it back if your improvement turns out to be temporary.

On the other hand, people at the bottom still get hosed the hardest. Being completely dependent on the state for everything means constantly jumping through hoops, having no safety net, paying huge (comparatively) fees for constant bullshit, and the terrible grinding depressing crush of always having to worry about money and never being able to afford a luxury that people around you all seem to be enjoying.

I'm only making this point because it is actually vitally important to save anything you can for retirement, even if that may push you just above the threshold for various benefits. Those benefits are at the mercy of government and half of the government wants to eliminate those benefits and the other half is fickle, incompetent, and disorganized about defending them. You don't want to be in the situation of having to go hungry because your application for food stamps was randomly and inexplicably denied and the appeals process will take a year. Or being evicted because you're 31 days past due on rent that you thought you'd paid but your bank canceled autopay because you were overdrafted by $5 when you paid for your prescription and didn't realize that your annual max was hit and you got charged an extra $45 in december and your lovely bottom-tier property management company only informs you of being overdue on rent via email.

Living in the worst housing, counting your pennies on your groceries and trying to memorize the list of what you can't pay for with food stamps (which is actually a card now, that you need to check the balance on), watching your cost of living inexorably rise while the government repeatedly fails to adjust benefits upwards to compensate, knowing that your only resort is to be a terrible burden on your family and deciding to skip meals instead of calling your grandson to ask for money for the fourth time this year, staring at the busted screen on your phone and knowing that if you try to replace it not only is it going to cost something you can't pay for but you'll have to try to puzzle out a new user interface and your eyes hurt and your body hurts and god dammit how come your daughter's wife's parents get to live in that really nice house and go on cruises and enjoy their retirement and you have to sit and be pleasant with them at thanksgiving (and they really are nice people) and see the pity in their eyes...

God, sorry for the rant but this is the experience of like so, so, so many people. Save something for retirement. Whatever you can. Even if it's a pittance it's better than nothing. So, so, so much better than nothing.

Subvisual Haze
Nov 22, 2003

The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

Bremen posted:

I honestly have no idea how to estimate how much I'll need to retire. So much of it seems dependent on the unknowns of inflation rate, market performance, lifespan/medical technologies, and government social programs in 30 years. Sure $3-5 million sounds ridiculous but if inflation is high and medical advances give another 10-20 years maybe.

So honestly my plan is to try to emulate Scrooge McDuck as much as I can and if I drastically overshoot to take up philanthropy.
The back of the envelope math is taking your estimated yearly living expenses multiplied by 25x. Obviously there are a million factors that aren't possible to estimate for future conditions, but that's used as a quick starter estimate from the Retire Early crowd.

SpartanIvy
May 18, 2007
Hair Elf

Leperflesh posted:

The sad reality for many people
This is my biggest fear and why I've been jumping into retirement savings after not having done much with it until my early 30's. I have chosen to live well within my means, and I use those compromises in lifestyle to have tons of disposable income to do and buy fun things as well as contribute around 30% of my gross income to retirement savings. As my earnings hopefully continue to increase in the next decade I plan to maintain my costs and up my contribution percentage as well.

I've met a shocking amount of people that have no plans for retirement and no meaningful savings, and as the years go by and they don't change, I worry what will happen to them in the future. I see this horrible future coming and want to make sure I'm ahead of the game as much as I can be. If good things happen and most of my generation gets bailed out, I will be happy for them. But I can also see the future where Boomers gut every social service and something like 90% of Millennials live on the street.

Smashing Link
Jul 8, 2003

I'll keep chucking bombs at you til you fall off that ledge!
Grimey Drawer

SpartanIvy posted:

... I can also see the future where Boomers gut every social service and something like 90% of Millennials live on the street.
New thread title?

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Smashing Link posted:

New thread title?

heh. despite the occasional rant, this is a helpful place not a doomsday place. as someone else previously posted,

Unsinkabear posted:

"the second best time is now" is extremely wholesome



anyway for some thread content, since there has been a lot of discussion about HYSA's and what not recently, some people may enjoy this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJ5an536b1M

odd lots just now did a podcast regarding interest rates that retail sees on deposits, and how/why they differ from t-bill rates, etc.

ncumbered_by_idgits
Sep 20, 2008

I’m about to embark on my first investment outside my 401k with a Fidelity Roth. I’m leaning towards a target date fund but wondering what the thread consensus is besides that. .

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

ncumbered_by_idgits posted:

I’m about to embark on my first investment outside my 401k with a Fidelity Roth. I’m leaning towards a target date fund but wondering what the thread consensus is besides that. .

If you're not super keen to engage with the nuts and bolts of fund selection, a target date fund will work well for you.

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

ncumbered_by_idgits posted:

I’m about to embark on my first investment outside my 401k with a Fidelity Roth. I’m leaning towards a target date fund but wondering what the thread consensus is besides that. .

A target date fund is an excellent and easy choice. The one thing you will want to compare is the expense ratio. A Fidelity fund (FDEXX for example) can have a 0.75% expense ratio (bad!) while a similar Vanguard fund (VFFVX for example) can have a 0.08% expense ratio (+expenses for the underlying funds). Over 30-40 years this makes a very significant difference.

MrLogan
Feb 4, 2004

SpartanIvy posted:

This is my biggest fear and why I've been jumping into retirement savings after not having done much with it until my early 30's. I have chosen to live well within my means, and I use those compromises in lifestyle to have tons of disposable income to do and buy fun things as well as contribute around 30% of my gross income to retirement savings. As my earnings hopefully continue to increase in the next decade I plan to maintain my costs and up my contribution percentage as well.

I've met a shocking amount of people that have no plans for retirement and no meaningful savings, and as the years go by and they don't change, I worry what will happen to them in the future. I see this horrible future coming and want to make sure I'm ahead of the game as much as I can be. If good things happen and most of my generation gets bailed out, I will be happy for them. But I can also see the future where Boomers gut every social service and something like 90% of Millennials live on the street.

I still get mad that Boomers cut social security by 16% for later generations, but not themselves.

Sundae
Dec 1, 2005

pmchem posted:



majority of US/Canada respondents say they need >$5m for it to be enough to retire

good luck goons

I aspire to someday be the guy in Europe who needs more than $20M.


I had a conversation with my mother recently, in which she expressed confusion as to why I was so certain I wouldn't retire here in California. (She was delighted because she's a Fox News libertarian, but still confused.)
"Mom - I have 27 years left on a condo with a monthly payment higher than the max for Social Security. I can't retire here."

Sundae fucked around with this message at 21:45 on Feb 23, 2023

Space Fish
Oct 14, 2008

The original Big Tuna.


esquilax posted:

A target date fund is an excellent and easy choice. The one thing you will want to compare is the expense ratio. A Fidelity fund (FDEXX for example) can have a 0.75% expense ratio (bad!) while a similar Vanguard fund (VFFVX for example) can have a 0.08% expense ratio (+expenses for the underlying funds). Over 30-40 years this makes a very significant difference.

VFFVX has a transaction cost for purchasing outside of a Vanguard account.

I would recommend a Fidelity Freedom Index (key word!) fund, which is comparable to Vanguard's offerings and charges a much lower expense ratio than the "just Freedom" target date funds.

If you're young/risk-embracing enough that you want to go all-stocks for a while, then holding FZROX and FZILX in a 60/40 ratio will get you roughly the world equity market's return for 0% annual fee. VT accomplishes this as well for 0.07%.

runawayturtles
Aug 2, 2004
Yeah... Fidelity is perpetually confusing new investors by having two sets of target date funds, one active/expensive (Freedom) and one passive/cheap (Freedom Index). Always ignore the former.

Subvisual Haze
Nov 22, 2003

The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.
Sometimes its nice to use the Roth IRA to supplement fund types that don't have a good low cost version in your 401k. Like small caps or TIPS or emerging markets. Depends of course on what your 401k has on offer.

VTI (Vanguard's Total Market Index in ETF form) is always a fine default choice though.

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


Good timing for this subject because my company got bought out and I need to set up my 401k. My options are... limited :sigh:





I don't see any of the passive funds in this list unless I want to manually choose my stock/bond mix?

KillHour fucked around with this message at 00:11 on Feb 24, 2023

Happiness Commando
Feb 1, 2002
$$ joy at gunpoint $$

The fidelity freedom funds are target date funds with low ERs. Pick the fund with the year you think you might retire.

Sundae
Dec 1, 2005

Happiness Commando posted:

The fidelity freedom funds are target date funds with low ERs. Pick the fund with the year you think you might retire.

The FID Freedom 2055 is 0.76% ER, versus FID Freedom Index 2055 at 0.12% as examples. They're not that low.

Residency Evil
Jul 28, 2003

4/5 godo... Schumi

KillHour posted:

Good timing for this subject because my company got bought out and I need to set up my 401k. My options are... limited :sigh:





I don't see any of the passive funds in this list unless I want to manually choose my stock/bond mix?

That's a reasonable plan. FID 500 Index is an S&P 500 index fund. FID INTL Index I'm guessing is the international equivalent. FID US BND IND is a bond fund I'm guessing.

raminasi
Jan 25, 2005

a last drink with no ice

Happiness Commando posted:

The fidelity freedom funds are target date funds with low ERs. Pick the fund with the year you think you might retire.

Fidelity Freedom Index funds are cheap. The ones in the screenshot look like the expensive ones, but knowing the actual symbols or expense ratios would confirm.

The Leck
Feb 27, 2001

KillHour posted:

Good timing for this subject because my company got bought out and I need to set up my 401k. My options are... limited :sigh:





I don't see any of the passive funds in this list unless I want to manually choose my stock/bond mix?

It looks like you may have some decent indexes in the FID 500 INDEX, FID INTL INDEX, and FID US BOND IDX. Doesn't seem too bad at all! I need to take some screenshots of my options and show you what REALLY lovely choices look like.

Subvisual Haze
Nov 22, 2003

The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.
Extended Market is everything not included in the SP500, so between that and the 500 index you have the whole US market covered with cheap indexes. I see there's also a bond and international index. Those 4 should cover everything recommended for a basic balanced portfolio.

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22
you gotta post ERs but that Fidelity S&P 500 index fund should be cheap

CubicalSucrose
Jan 1, 2013

Phantom my Opera and call me South Park: Bigger, Longer, & Uncut

KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:

you gotta post ERs but that Fidelity S&P 500 index fund should be cheap

Emptyquote

drk
Jan 16, 2005

esquilax posted:

Vanguard fund (VFFVX for example) can have a 0.08% expense ratio (+expenses for the underlying funds).

Is this correct? I always assumed fund of funds expense ratios were inclusive of the underlying funds expenses, not in addition to.

A quick search suggests ERs should be inclusive but the reference was a 70 page SEC document I'm not going to read on my phone.

smackfu
Jun 7, 2004

MrLogan posted:

I still get mad that Boomers cut social security by 16% for later generations, but not themselves.

The thread was just chatting about defined benefit pensions and those are the worst for this, especially unions that have to vote on any changes. Our state has like five tiers of pensions over the years, decreasing in quality.

esquilax
Jan 3, 2003

drk posted:

Is this correct? I always assumed fund of funds expense ratios were inclusive of the underlying funds expenses, not in addition to.

A quick search suggests ERs should be inclusive but the reference was a 70 page SEC document I'm not going to read on my phone.

You are probably right. The fidelity freedom fund has a "management fee" of 0.75% as the only expense, but looking deeper the funds it holds are basically zero expense so that doesn't help. Then I checked VFFVX prospectus and that 0.08% states that it does include the underlying fees and the target date fund itself says it has zero expenses. I might have been confusing management fees with expense ratio.

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


Sooooo what do I pick then?

Subvisual Haze
Nov 22, 2003

The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.
How long until you retire? What is the chance you tap your fund early? What are the odds you panic if the stock market shits the bed?

Subvisual Haze
Nov 22, 2003

The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.
Conventional Wisdom for Maximum Aggression:
20% FID US Bond Index
20% FID INTL Index
15% FID EXTD Market Index
45% FID 500 Index

Obviously these amount could vary, but it hits the 20% minimum bond exposure that conventional wisdom endorses, then tries to capture the rough 2:1 domestic to international market cap ratio and 3:1 Sp500 to all else cap ratio in the domestic market.

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


Subvisual Haze posted:

How long until you retire? What is the chance you tap your fund early? What are the odds you panic if the stock market shits the bed?

I'm 34, so 30 years? None unless I'm really hosed. None.

Edit:

Going to blindly follow your advice for now. Thanks!



Double Edit: My old 401k poo poo is in the high cost managed garbage because I'm an idiot. If I change those to match, are there tax implications?

KillHour fucked around with this message at 04:25 on Feb 24, 2023

Nitrousoxide
May 30, 2011

do not buy a oneplus phone



KillHour posted:

I'm 34, so 30 years? None unless I'm really hosed. None.

Edit:

Going to blindly follow your advice for now. Thanks!



This is what the breakdown is for a target fund for your anticipated retirement:


https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vffvx

You can replicate that with your individual funds there and keep checking it once a year to update the ratios as it shifts things around as your retirement closes.

Tricky Ed
Aug 18, 2010

It is important to avoid confusion. This is the one that's okay to lick.



KillHour posted:

Double Edit: My old 401k poo poo is in the high cost managed garbage because I'm an idiot. If I change those to match, are there tax implications?

If it's still in a 401(k) plan OR you rolled it into an IRA, there's no tax implications for changing funds within the plan. Just don't cash it out or withdraw anything. Feel free to post about what you're thinking if you have questions.

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


Tricky Ed posted:

If it's still in a 401(k) plan OR you rolled it into an IRA, there's no tax implications for changing funds within the plan. Just don't cash it out or withdraw anything. Feel free to post about what you're thinking if you have questions.

Thanks. I did the same with the other two (that are both also in Fidelity just by chance).

The first one was almost the same, except the only bond index available was FUAMX, so I did that there.

The second one looks like this now (don't ask me what the gently caress I was thinking with those old contributions - I was barely 20)



Nitrousoxide posted:

This is what the breakdown is for a target fund for your anticipated retirement:


https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vffvx

You can replicate that with your individual funds there and keep checking it once a year to update the ratios as it shifts things around as your retirement closes.

This is a lot more aggressive on stocks vs bonds, which I don't mind, but my IRA is 100% VTSAX so maybe having 20% is better here?

KillHour fucked around with this message at 04:47 on Feb 24, 2023

Subvisual Haze
Nov 22, 2003

The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.
Oh, are your old Fidelity plans and your new one linked to NetBenefits.com by chance? Your new plan has very good options, and if both are via Fidelity, it should be fairly simple to Rollover the cash value of the old accounts directly into the new ones.

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


Subvisual Haze posted:

Oh, are your old Fidelity plans and your new one linked to NetBenefits.com by chance? Your new plan has very good options, and if both are via Fidelity, it should be fairly simple to Rollover the cash value of the old accounts directly into the new ones.

I'm sure they are (or rather, I don't know how to check but I would assume so?). If the new plan's options are better than my other plans' options, I'll look into how to do this. Thanks!

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Subvisual Haze
Nov 22, 2003

The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.
Oddly enough I'm having similar circumstances currently of a job changing management and this is the form they're having us use to rollover money from one Fidelity managed plan directly to a different one.

https://nb.fidelity.com/bin-public/070_NB_PreLogin_Pages/documents/403b_Rollover_585060.pdf (not sure if you need to login first to access this)

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