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I don’t get the birth rate thing. What’s the problem, exactly? Is there an assumption that people will just keep avoiding kids until nobody’s left? That a smaller growth rate somehow means a trend toward zero? Even if people were breeding at less than replacement rate why would that rate remain fixed as the population shrinks instead of leveling out or going back up? Social security is already boned so that argument’s a miss for me, and I definitely don’t care about having enough strong backs around to guide the boomers into the grave. Tiny Timbs fucked around with this message at 02:03 on Mar 4, 2023 |
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Mar 4, 2023 02:01
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Tiny Timbs posted:I don’t get the birth rate thing. What’s the problem, exactly? Is there an assumption that people will just keep avoiding kids until nobody’s left? That a smaller growth rate somehow means a trend toward zero? Even if people were breeding at less than replacement rate why would that rate remain fixed as the population shrinks instead of leveling out or going back up? Social Security depends on young workers paying taxes now to support retirees now. More old people and few young means the generational burden gets rather disproportionate and unsustainable. Japan and now China are already having to deal with demographic-driven budget problems.
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Mar 4, 2023 02:04
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Tiny Timbs posted:I don’t get the birth rate thing. What’s the problem, exactly? Is there an assumption that people will just keep avoiding kids until nobody’s left? That a smaller growth rate somehow means a trend toward zero? Even if people were breeding at less than replacement rate why would that rate remain fixed as the population shrinks instead of leveling out or going back up? It’s racism and eugenics poo poo. That’s it. The mongrel hordes are coming for your America so make more white people to secure the white hegemony. It’s that simple. Tiny Timbs posted:Social security is already boned so that argument’s a miss for me. It’s not. You could just raise the social security tax limits and boom, it’s fully funded forever. That’s also the whole thing. Rich people would rather not pay an extra 0.5% in taxes and so will allow the whole social safety net fail instead because who cares about the unwashed masses.
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Mar 4, 2023 02:06
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Serious question: Does Trump have an influential advisor (or a group of them) that are Mormons? Of the Mormons that I know, they almost universally love Trump. This idea of his seems like something they would like. Or do I just know Mormons that are white supremacists?
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Mar 4, 2023 02:27
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Are you familiar with the LDS lol
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Mar 4, 2023 02:29
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Milo and POTUS posted:Are you familiar with the LDS lol The church that very generously allowed the I can’t imagine why they’d have a white supremacy streak.
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Mar 4, 2023 02:35
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What's funny is mormons aren't even close to my most disliked american congregations
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Mar 4, 2023 02:36
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Deteriorata posted:Social Security is certainly not boned at the moment, and the problem is not going to be paying for Boomers but paying for you. yeah this is correct, it’s not even controversial. while some people may have nasty reasons for talking about birth rates, it’s a fairly boring economic point. here’s a conclusion from a paint dry boring report an economist at the social security administration, prepared for the congressional research service in 2019: “Conclusion On average, increases in life expectancy have allowed current Social Security beneficiaries to collect benefits for a longer period of time. However, the increase in life expectancies, when paired with low fertility rates, will negatively impact the program’s long-range financial position and weaken its ability to pay all scheduled benefits as projected under current law.” https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R45990 titled “Social Security: Demographic Trends and the Funding Shortfall” here’s a similar report from gao https://www.gao.gov/assets/t-hehs-98-43.pdf or the ssa again https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v66n4/v66n4p37.html and if you treat money as fungible then a budget shortfall in one program affects everything in the budget because it’s all on the table
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Mar 4, 2023 02:41
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pmchem posted:increases in life expectancy Good news on that front.
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Mar 4, 2023 02:43
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Tiny Timbs posted:I don’t get the birth rate thing. What’s the problem, exactly? Is there an assumption that people will just keep avoiding kids until nobody’s left? That a smaller growth rate somehow means a trend toward zero? Even if people were breeding at less than replacement rate why would that rate remain fixed as the population shrinks instead of leveling out or going back up? I think the replacement rate is around 2.1 births per couple. Below that the population will shrink. When that happens it will age, meaning you have fewer young people and more old people. That means difficult things all around, not just social security. Increases in healthcare needs with fewer workers, fewer workers all around, more retirees etc. (These are just quick assumptions). Japan is a good example with high healthcare needs, a deflationary economy, fewer young workers. How this plays out according to your questions I have no idea. Last I heard the US was above the replacement rate mainly due to immigration, not births, but I haven't looked at this in awhile so could be wrong. There are a lot of unknowns in this problem.
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Mar 4, 2023 03:08
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Milo and POTUS posted:What's funny is mormons aren't even close to my most disliked american congregations As a guy whose Germanic features have survived so strongly despite 200 years in America that I have been mistaken for an immigrant at times, my interactions with Mormons have been entirely pleasant.
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Mar 4, 2023 03:41
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maffew buildings posted:My sister has been telling me all about it. I don't know if she's watching due to professional interest of watching another lawyer just gently caress up so incredibly bad (understatement, I know) or because white women loving love real life murder drama *takes notes, adds “get versed in true crime” under checklist for “bagging white girls.”* E: *crosses out “white” red pens in “all”* TheWeedNumber fucked around with this message at 04:39 on Mar 4, 2023 |
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Mar 4, 2023 04:34
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Tiny Timbs posted:I don’t get the birth rate thing. What’s the problem, exactly? Is there an assumption that people will just keep avoiding kids until nobody’s left? That a smaller growth rate somehow means a trend toward zero? Even if people were breeding at less than replacement rate why would that rate remain fixed as the population shrinks instead of leveling out or going back up? I don't know why the gently caress so many people are convinced social security is boned but you definitely shouldn't just shrug at the idea of being denied benefits you have paid into your entire life
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Mar 4, 2023 04:42
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Grip it and rip it posted:I don't know why the gently caress so many people are convinced social security is boned but you definitely shouldn't just shrug at the idea of being denied benefits you have paid into your entire life Conservatives have been preaching that SS is about to go bankrupt since the day it was signed into law. It's disappointing so many otherwise intelligent people keep believing them rather than checking the facts for themselves.
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Mar 4, 2023 04:44
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TheWeedNumber posted:*takes notes, adds “get versed in true crime” under checklist for “bagging white girls.”* Be careful. My wife watches enough of that to make me think she has a rather extensive "don't make that mistake" list. She also started buying very specific cleaning supplies. I will start to really worry when she starts buying barrels or saws.
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Mar 4, 2023 04:46
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ASAPI posted:Be careful. My wife watches enough of that to make me think she has a rather extensive "don't make that mistake" list. My dating pool: https://mobile.twitter.com/mugshawtys?lang=en E: bae https://twitter.com/mugshawtys/status/1626955850509352960?s=20 TheWeedNumber fucked around with this message at 04:56 on Mar 4, 2023 |
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Mar 4, 2023 04:52
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ASAPI posted:Be careful. My wife watches enough of that to make me think she has a rather extensive "don't make that mistake" list. Whatever you do, do not make her your life insurance beneficiary.
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Mar 4, 2023 05:48
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https://twitter.com/MalcolmNance/status/1631812389481091073?s=20
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Mar 4, 2023 05:48
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Grip it and rip it posted:I don't know why the gently caress so many people are convinced social security is boned but you definitely shouldn't just shrug at the idea of being denied benefits you have paid into your entire life Because all I ever hear is that it’s not going to last, the retirement age got pushed back, and there is zero willingness to raise or eliminate the income caps to help fund it. Don’t yell at me for not expecting retirement in 30 years lol. Tiny Timbs fucked around with this message at 06:03 on Mar 4, 2023 |
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Mar 4, 2023 05:58
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Tiny Timbs posted:Because all I ever hear is that it’s not going to last, the retirement age got pushed back, and there is zero willingness to raise or eliminate the income caps to help fund it. Don’t yell at me for not expecting retirement in 30 years lol. I'm literally yelling at you for not expecting retirement in 30 years. Have some self respect and demand your loving entitlements that you have paid into. It's not loving charity - you're owed those benefits.
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Mar 4, 2023 06:41
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Milo and POTUS posted:What's funny is mormons aren't even close to my most disliked american congregations Yea, their missionaries take a "no", unlike most members of the "be an arse for Jesus" - club. Jehovas and what-have-you, at least we don't have US style megachurches here.
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Mar 4, 2023 08:29
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pmchem posted:whoa hold on that’s a pretty big accusation and certainly not something I’d want to perpetuate. to check that fact I had to google a bit, and I found this seemingly unbiased recent paper while googling on phone: It looks to me like the biggest change is women with only a high school education are having less kids. College educated women seem to be right where they were before. The biggest drops are with younger people. Birth rates have gone up for people in their 30s and 40s. It’s most likely a wealth effect than anything else. Kids are loving expensive. One of my single women friends is struggling to find a place to buy or rent this year because $42k/yr isn’t enough to do it alone let alone having a kid. Rich old people complaining about not enough babies is the result of them vacuuming up all of the wealth. Of course millennials and gen z aren’t having a ton of kids until their 30s/40s. We can’t afford it! More than four percent of all millennial wealth resides in Mark Zuckerberg’s pocket. If we had remotely the same amount of money as even gen-x let alone boomers, people would have more kids. My gf and I have discussed children, but it’s not something we can even dream to afford til I get a job after graduation in 3.5 years.
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Mar 4, 2023 12:17
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Also, social security, which has plenty of money for the next fifty years or so, would have plenty of money if there wasn’t an abysmally low cap on the tax. Cuts to social security are so that already low rear end tax cap of ~$11k in annual taxes paid can be even lower for the dragons hoarding all of the wealth.
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Mar 4, 2023 12:20
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Millennials are the single largest generation in the USA yet we have a home ownership rate of 17% because they’ve all been priced at exorbitant rates and by the time most of us could afford them, interest rates are so high it’s basically impossible to finance a home and afford. Mortgage rates are north of 7% at the moment. You want millennials and gen-z to have more kids? They need a lot more money.
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Mar 4, 2023 12:22
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Grip it and rip it posted:I'm literally yelling at you for not expecting retirement in 30 years. Have some self respect and demand your loving entitlements that you have paid into. It's not loving charity - you're owed those benefits. Ok I’m going to self respect it real hard into existence
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Mar 4, 2023 12:49
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My wife and I are on the leading edge of millennials and we got extremely lucky with the timing of life. Graduated right before 2008 to a company that was doing well despite the financial crisis and actually expanding. Bought our first house a month before the first time homebuyer tax credit expired, it appreciated reasonably in the 8 years we owned it, then moved to a much bigger house with a way bigger yard four years ago. Got a good rate then and refinanced to a stupid low rate when everything went to poo poo during Covid. With the extra principal payments we’ll have this thing free and clear in ~20 years. It’s “appreciated” 150k since we bought it because lol pandemic pricing, but good lord. We’ve been very fortunate and I’m thankful for it every day. Someone who graduated after us into the recession? Yeah, that sucks. I have a coworker about my age who recently got divorced, and he said there is no way in hell he can afford a house.
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Mar 4, 2023 12:55
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TheWeedNumber posted:My dating pool: https://mobile.twitter.com/mugshawtys?lang=en do you think she's accepting pen pals
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Mar 4, 2023 13:36
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TheWeedNumber posted:My dating pool: https://mobile.twitter.com/mugshawtys?lang=en I'm swiping right but I keep going to the previous page please help
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Mar 4, 2023 13:50
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Tom Sizemore passed away. He had a brain aneurysm a few weeks ago and never regained consciousness.
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Mar 4, 2023 14:02
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Ah that sucks. He was a good actor.
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Mar 4, 2023 14:09
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Mr. Nice! posted:It looks to me like the biggest change is women with only a high school education are having less kids. College educated women seem to be right where they were before. Anecdotally, this is the prevailing mood among everyone I grew up with who I'm still in contact with (which is quite a few of them). The only people I knew as a kid who have been having kids are the wealthy and the already extremely poor. Everyone else has been looking at just the hospital bill for delivering a baby and going nope let's not do this, or is just too depressed, anxious, and stressed out to hold down a serious relationship in the first place.
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Mar 4, 2023 14:25
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Professional class white millennials are getting a massive childcare subsidy in the form of being WFH now and able to take care of their kids in between sending two emails a day.
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Mar 4, 2023 14:47
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slurm posted:Professional class white millennials are getting a massive childcare subsidy in the form of being WFH now and able to take care of their kids in between sending two emails a day. Tell me you don’t know “professional class white millennial” mothers without telling me you don’t know any “professional class white millennial” mothers. If anything things got tougher for the mothers I know because of daycare closures and how they would have to parent and educate their kids when they were supposed to be working, and they all have jobs that entail a hell of a lot more than sending two emails a day. This is a gross post and you should feel bad about making it.
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Mar 4, 2023 15:05
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slurm posted:Professional class white millennials are getting a massive childcare subsidy in the form of being WFH now and able to take care of their kids in between sending two emails a day. Yeahhhhhh you might want to rethink that take. Most of my colleagues who had to WFH and had kids (especially very young ones) went through a far worse hell than most as they ended up having to do work mostly when their kids were sleeping which basically gave them little / no time in the day to do anything but childrearing, homeschooling and work they had to get done once the child was asleep. It's put a lot of stress on their marriages and physical / mental health.
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Mar 4, 2023 15:16
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slurm posted:Professional class white millennials are getting a massive childcare subsidy in the form of being WFH now and able to take care of their kids in between sending two emails a day.
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Mar 4, 2023 15:27
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Also in a lot of cases I noticedit was dad who had the job where he could wfh because mom had to go work at the hospital/bank/other “essential job” that put them at risk of bringing Covid home because some shithead didn’t want to wear a mask.
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Mar 4, 2023 15:36
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slurm posted:Professional class white millennials are getting a massive childcare subsidy in the form of being WFH now and able to take care of their kids in between sending two emails a day. Do you know what 'subsidy' means because the way you used it suggests that you don't.
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Mar 4, 2023 15:44
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Milo and POTUS posted:do you think she's accepting pen pals *kicks up a foot and throws his hair back* I hope so.
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Mar 4, 2023 15:47
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pantslesswithwolves posted:Tom Sizemore passed away. He had a brain aneurysm a few weeks ago and never regained consciousness. Rip
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Mar 4, 2023 15:48
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pantslesswithwolves posted:https://twitter.com/Forbes/status/1631734104357044235?s=20 Wrong Theory posted:I get to say it! I get to say it! "I am going to fund it out of my bigly bank accounts--which are big--and build a city like nobody's ever seen, like you wouldn't believe. And when I'm robbed of another RIGGED election in 2024, I'm going to attempt to get the MAGAts in the states I win to secede and this will be capital of the Patriot States of America" And then he stiffs all the contractors who built New Germania and somehow makes it their fault.
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Mar 4, 2023 16:15
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