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Hand Knit posted:You mean objectively or discursively? Because isn't he literally the worst defenceman in the league by a pretty sizable margin once you factor in defence? In history!
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Mar 7, 2023 21:23
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ThinkTank posted:I can't see a universe where Karlsson doesn't win the Norris if he puts up a 100+ point season. Who's even in competition with him this year? Josh Morrissey and? according to the nerds it should be another Adam Fox win. but even as a superfan I can’t defend that. it’s gotta be Erik, all respect to Fox.
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Mar 7, 2023 21:26
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DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:it takes a lot of effort and injury risk to play lights out defensively for a whole season. Connor both got better at offense and defense in the playoffs last year and played better individually than anyone since Mario Lemieux until he ran into the one defenseman who can almost skate with him having the best individual playoffs since Chris Pronger, who was also on a stacked team.
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Mar 7, 2023 21:28
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The Pens called up William's brother: https://twitter.com/TaylorHaasePGH/status/1633200647376961537?s=20 I assume this means a top six forward is hurt as otherwise calling up Nylander doesn't make a lot of sense to me. I'd think they'd want someone else if they were plugging someone into the bottom six
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Mar 7, 2023 21:29
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elias pettersson is the best 5v5 player in the nhl also best pker
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Mar 7, 2023 21:30
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trilljester posted:Right now it's Karlsson with 82 points, Morrissey with 67, and Rasmus Dahlin with 63. I know Winnipeg is in playoff contention and Buffalo is a big question mark to make the cut this year. It could be that we get a Norris winner who doesn't make the playoffs. Dahlin fell off a little bit and missed a few games due to injury, but his defensive game has been solid this season. The kid is only 22!!!! He’s one or two seasons away from being elite.
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Mar 7, 2023 21:44
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https://twitter.com/bardown/status/1633185279354732545 Lmao
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Mar 7, 2023 21:55
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Hand Knit posted:You mean objectively or discursively? Because isn't he literally the worst defenceman in the league by a pretty sizable margin once you factor in defence? The Norris has never once been about defensive performance. It's an award for the guy listed as a defenceman who scores the most cool lookin goals in a year. Also unrelated, but the fact that Quinn Hughes is the fastest defenceman to reach 200 assists in NHL history is mind blowing to me. He did it quicker than Bobby Orr and Brian Leetch!
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Mar 7, 2023 22:01
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It was the year Mike Green had a lot of goals.
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Mar 7, 2023 22:09
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Aphrodite posted:It was the year Mike Green had a lot of goals. Once a decade the award voters for each award have a crisis of conscience because there's a certain guy they just don't want to give the award to so they decide they're going to vote based on the true interpretation of the wording all of a sudden (which is just some stuff about integrity that sounds good in their heads). That's why we have Corey Perry and Jose Theodore Hart Trophy winners and Brodeur got the 2007 Vezina.
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Mar 7, 2023 22:28
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Karlsson having 82 points in 2016 and Doughty winning the Norris with 51 was some absolute bullshit, my man was robbed
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Mar 7, 2023 22:51
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BRAKE FOR MOOSE posted:GA/60 doesn't tell you much that +/- doesn't. McDavid is better than Matthews on xGA/60 this season; so individualizing the metric somewhat actually ends up favoring McDavid. You're loving high. +/- is dog poo poo because it includes short handed goals and empty netters against and some other random rear end poo poo. You must not be reading either. Conor McDavdi's defensive woes have not been over stated. He's literally bottom 1/3rd of forwards in actual outcomes this season. Over the last 3 seasons at 5v5 Conor McDavid is on the ice for 2.72 goals against per 60 which is good for 329th of 472 players (5v5 600 minutes ice time forwards only). That ranks him in the bottom 30th percentile of the league. Over that time he has outscored it and that's because 20/21 and 21/22 were 2 of Conor's BEST 5v5 years of his entire career only overshadowed by '16/17 which is....coincidentally....Conor's best defensive year in actual goals against and expected. But Conor's career is basically 4 years of 57%+ goals for at 5v5 and 4 years at 50 to 52% at 5v5. Point being Conor's defensive deficiencies are not overblown. He's freaking awful. See below for MORE Starsfan posted:It's his best season ever by xG +/- at 5v5 play, his 5v5GA/60 over his career is almost entirely lined up with his on ice save percentage as well as the quality of the team and is effectively meaningless, I don't know why you're quoting it. Connor McDavid didn't have Jack Campbell playing alot of minutes behind him in 2016-17, the Oilers had an actual competent goaltender that year for once. If your goalie isn't getting shot on you can't get scored on. Pretty simple. Yes I understand there are also 1000 other variables that go into this and actual goals against. I've also *always* tried to compare same season to same season when talking about Matthews and McDavid for the exact reason you state and yes there are tons of variables and coaches and *on* and *on* and *on* so year by year lets go - all numbers 5v5 and forwards with 200 minutes of ice time using Nat Stat 'cause it's my 2nd home 2015-2016: (439 total players) McDavid 3.3 aGA/60 (434) and 2.47 xGA/60 (372). No Matthews. Alex Ovechkin 1.71 aGA (74) 1.99 xGA (84) Crosby 2.13 aGA (217) 2.23 xGA (226) 2016-2017: (434 total players) McDavid 2.14 aGA/60 (193 ) and 2.32 xGA/60 (272) Matthews 2.38 aGA (294) 2.59 xGA (396) Ovechkin 2.27 aGA (246) 2.54 xGA (379) Crosby 2.36 aGA (280) 2.51 xGA (372) 2017-2018: (447 total players) McDavid 2.72 aGA/60 (354) 2.76 xGA/60 (418) Matthews 2 aGA (96) 2.76 xGA (417) Ovechkin 2.65 aGA (333) 2.87 xGA (438) Crosby 2.61 aGA (317) 2.33 xGA (210) 2018-2018: (449 total players) McDavid 3.3 aGA/60 (427) 2.88 xGA/60 (428) Matthews 3.41 aGA (436) 2.81 xGA (418) Ovechkin 2.83 aGA (434) 2.96 (436) Crosby 2.06 aGA (106) 2.29 xGA (162) 2019-2020: (428 total players) McDavid 3.3 aGA/60 (398) 2.91 xGA/60 (412) Matthews 2.29 aGA (163) 2.36 (208) Ovechkin 3.24 aGA (392) 2.58 xGA (335) Crosby 2.95 aGA (342) 2.64 xGA (360) 2020-2021: (429 total players) McDavid 3.07 aGA/60 (375) 2.37 xGA/60 (272) Matthews 2.01 aGA (112) 2.06 (111) Ovechkin 2.7 aGA (304) 2.39 xGA (287) Crosby 2.12 aGA (141) 2.25 xGA (221) 2021-2022: (477 total players) McDavid 2.26 aGA/60 (147) 2.43 xGA/60 (199) Matthews 3.06 aGA (385) 2.04 xGA (24) Ovechkin 2.82 aGA (337) 2.69 (359) Crosby 2 aGA (78) 2.62 xGA (319) 2022-2023: (433 total players) McDavid 3.03 aGA/60 (340) 2.57 xGA (199) Matthews 1.98 aGA (80) 2.68 xGA (248) Ovechkin 2.74 aGA (282) 3.22 xGA (422) Crosby 2.49 aGA (216) 2.83 xGA (321) Ugh this took so long I forgot my freaking point. Oh right 1. Anyway you slice it Conor McDavic is a bottom 1/3rd forward in actual goals against as well as expected goals against. Whether this hurts or helps the Oilers cause of 'winning' is up to you. I remain of the opinion I'd prefer the super star outscore teams significantly 5v5 and score sick powerplay goals. YMMV. 2. Here lies Sid. Not elite defensively. Propped up by sv%. 3. Matthews plays just enough defense to not hinder his team too much and scores at a ridiculous pace. Also helped by sv% in actual outcomes a bunch. Except that one time. Which is lol. 4. Ovechkin. I didn't really have anything else tbh. 5. I should have included like Landeskog or MacKinnon as another contrast but I was already 2/3rds through making my eyes bleed so look it up yourself if you're curious.
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Mar 7, 2023 23:09
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rex rabidorum vires posted:Conor McDavic
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Mar 7, 2023 23:11
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I appreciate the passion, Rex, but maybe take about 20% off.
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Mar 7, 2023 23:14
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Connor McDavic
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Mar 7, 2023 23:14
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I’m on my iPhone and if I swipe up one time and don’t see the end of the post I know I’ve been rex’d
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Mar 7, 2023 23:32
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Have you considered the new lord and saviour, Jack Hughes as your personal hockey Jesus? The Oilers are a one (well, two) trick pony and won't win poo poo.
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Mar 7, 2023 23:36
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I can't believe Corey Perry won a Hart and Stamkos never did
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Mar 7, 2023 23:38
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He's intentionally misspelling names as a joke after misspelling Matthews' name last page, hope that helps y'all still love ya rex
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Mar 7, 2023 23:39
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Good Soldier Svejk posted:I can't believe Corey Perry won a Hart and Stamkos never did The award isn't made of glass
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Mar 7, 2023 23:40
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Diet Crack posted:The award isn't made of glass listen I'm already holding my breath anytime Jack goes remotely near the boards e: it is wild how high he rates in xGA. He looks terrible/nonexistent sometimes in his own end (so much that they stapled him to Haula for months), but I guess he does get a lot of sneaky takeaways and just generally has the puck for entire shifts
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Mar 7, 2023 23:44
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rex rabidorum vires posted:
Do you agree that McDavid's xGA numbers and specifically his rankings relative to the rest of the league have improved significantly based on the data set you have provided over the time period of the last 2 years compared to what he had done previously and that he's actually doing the best out of the 4 comparable forwards you have selected in 2022-23?
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Mar 7, 2023 23:44
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I'll tell ya what Connor's xga is: eXtremely Good At riling us all up.
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Mar 7, 2023 23:54
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T-Bone posted:listen I'm already holding my breath anytime Jack goes remotely near the boards Me too to be fair. He has a real knack for being in the place best to take the puck away and break out into the other zone - his skating is bewildering sometimes too
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Mar 7, 2023 23:58
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Straight Ga/60 comps don't work when you don't filter out for systems/players etc. That's not to say that Connor is a good defensive player, but he's also playing with Cody Ceci and Leon Draisaitl a lot who are both having banner years at being bad in that end (Leon I still love you and you rock).
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Mar 7, 2023 23:59
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rex rabidorum vires posted:You're loving high. I can't wait for the season to start. These off season posts are just arduous.
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Mar 8, 2023 00:00
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Saying McDavid isn’t clearly the best player in the league because he’s below average defensively is like saying Ullmark isn’t the best goalie this year because he doesn’t throw the body enough.
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Mar 8, 2023 00:01
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Yeah defense doesn't matter for poo poo
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Mar 8, 2023 00:03
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Mind_Taker posted:Saying McDavid isn’t clearly the best player in the league because he’s below average defensively is like saying Ullmark isn’t the best goalie this year because he doesn’t throw the body enough. goalies can throw the body with those crazy all or nothing poke checks that either work great or just concede a goal
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Mar 8, 2023 00:04
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Mind_Taker posted:Saying McDavid isn’t clearly the best player in the league because he’s below average defensively is like saying Ullmark isn’t the best goalie this year because he doesn’t throw the body enough. This doesn't seem like the best comparison to rescue McDavid since Ullmark scores goals and McDavid, apparently, doesn't stop them.
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Mar 8, 2023 00:06
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Hamilton is a better all round player than McDavid - discuss. (lol no he's slow as poo poo)
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Mar 8, 2023 00:11
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Eric the Mauve posted:Yeah defense doesn't matter for poo poo Yes, this is clear every year when it comes to Norris voting.
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Mar 8, 2023 00:12
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Mind_Taker posted:Saying McDavid isn’t clearly the best player in the league because he’s below average defensively is like saying Ullmark isn’t the best goalie this year because he doesn’t throw the body enough. Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:Straight Ga/60 comps don't work when you don't filter out for systems/players etc. That's not to say that Connor is a good defensive player, but he's also playing with Cody Ceci and Leon Draisaitl a lot who are both having banner years at being bad in that end (Leon I still love you and you rock). Year over year over year over year over year of logged data shows he's near the bottom. Always. Nearly entire career. The only constant over the entire data set in terms of coaches, forwards, goaltenders, and defensemen...is Connor. 8 years in the league. 8 years of data points relative to 400+ other players on 30-32 other teams. Connor is still near the bottom 1/3rd. If what you're asking for exists it's either a giant compilation of Micah blob charts....which I don't have or some other very fancy $$$$ Opta or Opta like stuff that yeah...outta my price range. Eric the Mauve posted:He's intentionally misspelling names as a joke after misspelling Matthews' name last page, hope that helps y'all I'm actually a horrific writer and even after a bunch of proofreads I miss stuff. Pray to never see something un-proofread. Also I can't spell. Or grammar. You're lucky if it's coherent. Hand Knit posted:I appreciate the passion, Rex, but maybe take about 20% off. No. EDIT: Sorry forgot Starsfan  Starsfan posted:Do you agree that McDavid's xGA numbers and specifically his rankings relative to the rest of the league have improved significantly based on the data set you have provided over the time period of the last 2 years compared to what he had done previously and that he's actually doing the best out of the 4 comparable forwards you have selected in 2022-23? His expecteds have improved yes! Significantly. I'm actually surprised by Matthews delta between actual and expecteds as well. And yes the Oilers are and have been a hugely hilariously flawed mess going back much longer than McDavid's career and that there are 5 other players on the ice who aren't Connor that contribute to all of these positives/negatives as well....and a coach/GM is employed (in theory) to make sure you max Connor's skills and minimize his detrimental parts. As such though even compared to his contemporaries his actual results are extremely poor. And they always have been. The divergence in expected vs actual shows improvement which you rightly and correctly call me out on  but at the end of the day how things 'should be' and 'how they actually are' still don't jive and that means a less successful Connor and less successful Oilers (good). rex rabidorum vires fucked around with this message at 00:27 on Mar 8, 2023 |
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Mar 8, 2023 00:19
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Arivia posted:goalies can throw the body with those crazy all or nothing poke checks that either work great or just concede a goal And Ullmark does, so mind take that!
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Mar 8, 2023 00:20
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Kopitar is a better all-around player than McDavid. Hands will be thrown if there is disagreement.
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Mar 8, 2023 00:51
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Elbows, more likely.
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Mar 8, 2023 00:55
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Hand Knit posted:I appreciate the passion, Rex, but maybe take about 20% off. Off the xGA or actual GA? And is this a limited time offer? Also it really should be Connor McDavis, the typo is right there one letter away.
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Mar 8, 2023 01:00
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Connor McDavid owns a dog named Lenard
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Mar 8, 2023 01:12
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Defense ruined hockey so I'm glad Connor sucks at it
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Mar 8, 2023 01:15
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The Leafs broadcast tonight starting with a discussion on how Auston Matthews “needs to get going” and never mentioning both he and the team repeatedly talking about a nagging injury, him sitting out the All Star game and multiple stretches this year because of it, and anyone watching him immediately being able to see that he doesn’t have his trademark wrister and is shying away from shooting opportunities, makes me wonder how much heat this debate would really garner if he was healthy and scoring at his pace from last year. It’s a moot point though because it’s starting to feel like he’s not getting back to his old self any time soon.
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Mar 8, 2023 01:16
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