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Shifty Nipples
Apr 8, 2007

Remulak posted:

Never said it was bunk, said it was not the actions of a foreign adversary.

Which means it was some US TLA eavesdropping with something nasty like microwaves.

crickets

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Slavvy
Dec 11, 2012

The evil Chinese blew up our aircraft carrier totally unprovoked, enormous tragedy blah blah, defend America blah blah this poo poo isn't hard man. You don't need the entire population or even a majority on board and by the time you do you're so balls deep that people shrug and go along with it because what are you going to do? Fight the government while it's fighting a war of survival for the country? In a fascist state with incredible powers of surveillance and so on?

Trimson Grondag 3
Jul 1, 2007

Clapping Larry
they’d do nuclear first strike if it meant avoiding imposing rationing in the US

GlassEye-Boy
Jul 12, 2001

Trimson Grondag 3 posted:

they’d do nuclear first strike if it meant avoiding imposing rationing in the US

it’s a good thing china also has nukes and should be significantly increasing their numbers in the next few years.

Slavvy
Dec 11, 2012

Feels like you guys are drastically overestimating how difficult it would be to force the American population to do whatever they want. There won't be some tidal wave of rebellion that endangers the government's power.

Trimson Grondag 3
Jul 1, 2007

Clapping Larry
nah see this is how we get to the neuromancer future where The Corporations decapitate the US government when they try to start WW3 because it will gently caress up the economy

Slavvy
Dec 11, 2012

I wish capitalism worked that way

Weka
May 5, 2019

That child totally had it coming. Nobody should be able to be out at dusk except cars.
War is notoriously bad for the economy

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Trimson Grondag 3 posted:

they’d do nuclear first strike if it meant avoiding imposing rationing in the US

i think they'd just let poor people starve instead of either first

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Trimson Grondag 3 posted:

nah see this is how we get to the neuromancer future where The Corporations decapitate the US government when they try to start WW3 because it will gently caress up the economy

just a fall off or significant slow down in trade between the us and China means the global economy stops growing.

This hasn’t stopped world wars in the past.

Trimson Grondag 3
Jul 1, 2007

Clapping Larry

Bar Ran Dun posted:

just a fall off or significant slow down in trade between the us and China means the global economy stops growing.
This hasn’t stopped world wars in the past.

WW2 and Korea operated in a mono media environment where consent manufacturing was possible, but that was gone by the 70s even let along today. instead it was replaced by the 'bomb who you want just leave us alone' consensus after Vietnam. In WW2 the US had a manufacturing industry and they didn't mind being told to make tank armour instead of bath tubs, that just isn't what makes money in the US today.

fair enough if you disagree, I don't think the US has the social or economic cohesion to accept any real sacrifice in service of total war any more.

Trimson Grondag 3 has issued a correction as of 05:53 on Mar 7, 2023

atelier morgan
Mar 11, 2003

super-scientific, ultra-gay

Lipstick Apathy

Slavvy posted:

Feels like you guys are drastically overestimating how difficult it would be to force the American population to do whatever they want. There won't be some tidal wave of rebellion that endangers the government's power.

there was a great deal of dissent and resistance on the part of drafted soldiers during the US involvement in vietnam: naval ships (even carriers) were sabotaged or were forced to return to port by mutiny, there were more awol soldiers than we ever put in iraq, a thousand or so officers killed by their soldiers, and so on, and the further professionalization of the military in the time since then was a reaction to that experience

i think the american people are more crushed by despair than they were then, but in way that is routinely expressing itself in bouts of intense, unpredictable violence already, and certainly we're not more unified

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




WWI is the analogous situation.

prior to the war there had been a number of very large changes in transportation. rail in europe y’all will be familiar with, atleast you should be. but three major things aligned in vessels too in the late 19th and early 20. screws steam and steel. these things had been around for a while but major advances occur in this period. Basically the clipper ships sort of hang on for a while after the civil war. but steel steam powered ships with screws really come in right at the end of the 19th. this starts with vessel types like “whalebacks” and you also get things get weird suez specific “turret decks” but the hull forms by like 1900 to 1920, if you look at the cross sections, they’re like modern ships. Regular transatlantic trade independent of weather had really taken off. a period of increasing globalization was occurring with many of the problems we see now from globalization also occurring then.

y’all are thinking about nations intending to be at war.

I think we are in a time where accidents and stupidity might be driving history.

Weka
May 5, 2019

That child totally had it coming. Nobody should be able to be out at dusk except cars.

Trabisnikof posted:

i think they'd just let poor people starve instead of either first

It hurts the rich less so it's this.

Trimson Grondag 3 posted:

fair enough if you disagree, I don't think the US has the social or economic cohesion to accept any real sacrifice in service of total war any more.

Look to the Ukraine example. It'll be a hard core of true believers enforcing everyone's participation.

Bar Ran Dun posted:

just a fall off or significant slow down in trade between the us and China means the global economy stops growing.

This hasn’t stopped world wars in the past.

I guess the great satan has seen this graph and is hoping for a repeat.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




look at the first war not the second. it’s quite a different thing.

Trimson Grondag 3
Jul 1, 2007

Clapping Larry
yeah the WW1 thing is quite interesting to think about, especially if you look at US involvement in WW1 in the context of bailing out JP Morgan etc.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




right it’s also the period that Lenin is writing about in Imperialism and it has the same growth in international financialization. changes in transportation allow for increases in exploitation and resource extraction.

Hubbert
Mar 25, 2007

At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

Bar Ran Dun posted:

I think we are in a time where accidents and stupidity might be driving history.

same as it ever was

nomad2020
Jan 30, 2007

Slavvy posted:

I don't get it, how can you watch videos of Ukrainian dudes being dragged kicking and screaming into a van to go get mulched by a pion and then be unable to imagine the USA, the most powerful fascist government on earth, not doing the same thing?

They don’t generally have the power of introspection OP.

Weka
May 5, 2019

That child totally had it coming. Nobody should be able to be out at dusk except cars.

Bar Ran Dun posted:

look at the first war not the second. it’s quite a different thing.



Looks pretty similar to me. Not as pronounced. I'm not sure it'll hold for number 3 though, but I'd say that's the bet.

StashAugustine
Mar 24, 2013

Do not trust in hope- it will betray you! Only faith and hatred sustain.

Weka posted:

War is notoriously bad for the economy

Wars are profitable as long as they happen to someone else

Centrist Committee
Aug 6, 2019

Slavvy posted:

Feels like you guys are drastically overestimating how difficult it would be to force the American population to do whatever they want. There won't be some tidal wave of rebellion that endangers the government's power.

i think you’re over selling this. the us hasn’t been able to field a real army in a real war since vietnam. it’s not even clear the us can put actual citizens in the field anymore after the gwot. the only reason ukraine is still a thing is because it’s not us soldiers dying. you’re not gonna be able to draft a nation of neurotic school shooters in 2023 lamo most of us aren’t even healthy enough to fight

Centrist Committee
Aug 6, 2019
it’s gonna be like ww1 in that the dumbass military aristocracy gets wiped out real fast but just lol if you think a draft is possible. you’re certainly not going to be able to raise a colonial army for anything other than defense of the province like ukraine

Centrist Committee
Aug 6, 2019
maybe it can be like a big game of battle bots tho with the us just throwing drone after drone into the ring idk

Relevant Tangent
Nov 18, 2016

Tangentially Relevant

Slavvy posted:

The evil Chinese blew up our aircraft carrier totally unprovoked, enormous tragedy blah blah, defend America blah blah this poo poo isn't hard man. You don't need the entire population or even a majority on board and by the time you do you're so balls deep that people shrug and go along with it because what are you going to do? Fight the government while it's fighting a war of survival for the country? In a fascist state with incredible powers of surveillance and so on?

there was plenty of opposition to the forever war in 2001 all the way through
it didn't matter but it was there
part of losing ww3 is that the us can't bring back the draft without everyone helping teens avoid the draft, imo

Centrist Committee
Aug 6, 2019

Relevant Tangent posted:

part of losing ww3 is that the us can't bring back the draft without everyone helping teens avoid the draft, imo

hey kids, we’re taking away tiktok and making you fight a war instead, remember to vote!

Relevant Tangent
Nov 18, 2016

Tangentially Relevant

Weka posted:

Look to the Ukraine example. It'll be a hard core of true believers enforcing everyone's participation.

The Ukraine example requires invasion from an outside force, nobody is invading America.

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

It took a few weeks of panic from the pandemic to set off a wave of protests only three years ago.

The people in US are crushed, but you're going to need to give them an outlet because it doesn't take much to set them off.

Did the protests accomplish anything? No, but the government still had to mobilize its internal army in response.

The Demilich
Apr 9, 2020

The First Rites of Men Were Mortuary, the First Altars Tombs.



Relevant Tangent posted:

The Ukraine example requires invasion from an outside force, nobody is invading America.

Can we trust both Mexico and Canada to not perform a sweet pincer attack??

KomradeX
Oct 29, 2011

Even if Red Dawn happened no American has what it takes to do an insurgency. Hell the cops will be too busy purging the undesirables to gang press people into fighting a losing war

Weka
May 5, 2019

That child totally had it coming. Nobody should be able to be out at dusk except cars.

StashAugustine posted:

Wars are profitable as long as they happen to someone else

I was being sarcastic.

KomradeX posted:

Even if Red Dawn happened no American has what it takes to do an insurgency. Hell the cops will be too busy purging the undesirables to gang press people into fighting a losing war

Simply pressgang the undesirables.

skooma512
Feb 8, 2012

You couldn't grok my race car, but you dug the roadside blur.

KomradeX posted:

Even if Red Dawn happened no American has what it takes to do an insurgency. Hell the cops will be too busy purging the undesirables to gang press people into fighting a losing war

Yup, the ethnic cleansing will begin as soon as they identify which ethnicity is doing the attacking. Fighting people who can actually fight back? Eh, we'll see. Although I'm sure even Americans will get off their rear end if an invasion is having an effect on them personally and someone is happily handing them explosives and instructions on where to put them. This of course is an absurd notion and the only enemy fires that will hit the Homeland will be in MIRV form.


Centrist Committee posted:

i think you’re over selling this. the us hasn’t been able to field a real army in a real war since vietnam. it’s not even clear the us can put actual citizens in the field anymore after the gwot. the only reason ukraine is still a thing is because it’s not us soldiers dying. you’re not gonna be able to draft a nation of neurotic school shooters in 2023 lamo most of us aren’t even healthy enough to fight

It hasn't needed to, because all wars since Vietnam don't need that many bodies on the ground. Chicken and an egg thing to be sure, but so far nobody's wanted to kick that anthill nor do they necessarily want to actually pay working class soldiers anything when they could be feeding money into the grift machine and getting a taste as it goes through.

I don't know what a general mobilization in the US would look like in 2023. There will be contingents of society (the cool ones) that will immediately refuse based on a grievance related to race or class or out of principle. The propaganda is going to go to unfathomable heights and the majority of Americans are going to do as the TV tells them to do ultimately. I saw the COVID disinfo and the quiet quitter disinfo coalesce and become mainstream in real time, no reason why a war can't do that, that's usually the classic example in fact. The rich will do as they've always done and get exemptions and cush postings.

They'll just adjust health standards until they get the amount of bodies they want. The school shooters will likely be pleased to get a real gun and do the Call of Duty thing. They'll look the other way for mental disabilities like ADD and make them (me :smith) meat shields. It doesn't really matter if you're effective at soldiering if you're only expected to last a week and nuclear war is expected to flip the table any day now.

But at least before the propaganda kicks in, I can't imagine any segment of American society being that eager to defend it since all but the top segments have been explicitly abandoned if not exploited and there's no hiding from that fact anymore. Nationalism is merely performative, hell the most hardcore nationalists here generally want to exterminate the federal government.

Wheeee
Mar 11, 2001

When a tree grows, it is soft and pliable. But when it's dry and hard, it dies.

Hardness and strength are death's companions. Flexibility and softness are the embodiment of life.

That which has become hard shall not triumph.

get worried when the army starts putting in orders for large quantities of XXXL uniforms

NeatHeteroDude
Jan 15, 2017

Wheeee posted:

get worried when the army starts putting in orders for large quantities of XXXL uniforms

NeatHeteroDude
Jan 15, 2017

I think the U.S. would be very good at fighting. I think we'd have lots of good soldiers, all of whom are awesome.

Filthy Hans
Jun 27, 2008

by Fluffdaddy

(and can't post for 10 years!)

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1633087428876554244

Australia will also lose WW3

Relevant Tangent
Nov 18, 2016

Tangentially Relevant

we're agreed that nobody will win ww3 so who is going to start it?

Wheeee
Mar 11, 2001

When a tree grows, it is soft and pliable. But when it's dry and hard, it dies.

Hardness and strength are death's companions. Flexibility and softness are the embodiment of life.

That which has become hard shall not triumph.

following the surprisingly successful battlefield performance of american conscripts during the late 20’s, due in large part to excess adipose tissue fouling the ballistics of shrapnel and small rifle rounds leading to increased survival rates among wounded fighters, militaries around the globe began to adopt a cheeseburger-based diet for their soldiers

KomradeX
Oct 29, 2011

Didn't the Aussies buy a bunch of M1s even though they have no way to transport them off Australia? Or was that just an exaggeration?

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Delta-Wye
Sep 29, 2005

Wheeee posted:

following the surprisingly successful battlefield performance of american conscripts during the late 20’s, due in large part to excess adipose tissue fouling the ballistics of shrapnel and small rifle rounds leading to increased survival rates among wounded fighters, militaries around the globe began to adopt a cheeseburger-based diet for their soldiers

if you uparmor those floating seats from wall-e and equip them with a TOW missile, the average american could be a formidable force on the modern battlefield

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