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TheDisreputableDog posted:It started as a black movement watchword, but the pejorative use today generally implies a level of performative hypocrisy. People do use the term in dumb ways, but the reason it’s caught on is because people instinctively understand it as a system of double-standards used to gain and maintain power. Control language, control the argument, generate outrage to take out and replace key people. I think most people are earnest about it, but examples abound of the “right people” getting a pass on objectively disqualifying behavior. Lmao this is complete conservative fanfiction. It has never been about “instinctively understanding it as a system of double standards”. It’s just the new liberal. Nothing more nothing less. When conservatives, and reactionaries in general, rail against woke or liberal or critical race theory they rarely have any notion of what they hate whatsoever. Only that conditions are bad and they’re gonna blame anyone who wants to change things from how they were in the 50s. Reactionaries gonna react. Post modernism is another one that alt right lunatics like to use as a stand in for woke or liberal or whatever. It’s just a catch all “things I dislike” as used. Captain Oblivious fucked around with this message at 04:02 on Mar 13, 2023 |
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Actually, critical race theory is a cross-disciplinary examination – by social and civil-rights scholars and activists – of how laws, social and political movements, and media shape, and are shaped by, social conceptions of race and ethnicity. It is only taught in very advanced graduate level classes at research universities, and as conservatives understand it does not exist.
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Mar 13, 2023 04:12
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pencilhands posted:Actually, critical race theory is a cross-disciplinary examination – by social and civil-rights scholars and activists – of how laws, social and political movements, and media shape, and are shaped by, social conceptions of race and ethnicity. It is only taught in very advanced graduate level classes at research universities, and as conservatives understand it does not exist. Conservatives want to eliminate it by replacing it in popular understanding with a vague and impossible construction because they don’t like tools that allow nuanced understanding of, say, how and why the legal system generates bad outcomes. We think of them as morons, but they have a certain cunning when it comes to identifying threats to themselves and to creating emotional associations with words and ideas.
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Mar 13, 2023 04:25
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Looking like the FDIC is successfully doing its thing despite the kickoff of the festivities being... suboptimal. Diabolically clever federal reserve solution to reduce the risk of contagion to, probably, very close to zero: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312a.htm not a super long release, but tldr: the federal reserve is making collateralized loans available to banks that have treasury bonds (all of them?) and certain other not-poo poo securities using the bonds as collateral, which i hear from banking nerds will have the results of 1) assuring people their deposits are safe so the bank runs don't happen and the deposits are in fact safe 2) protecting those deposits at zero-ish cost to the public and 3) probably not actually making very many loans at all, because now that people are mollified the banks are safer and taking a big pile of those loans out preemptively is basically announcing "hello we think our bank might be insolvent and join SFB and the other two? in cratering", which banks generally would prefer not to do Regarding specifically SVB and Signature, https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312b.htm Yellen et al approved FDIC depositor protection for uninsured depositors through what are basically normal measures and existing (and near-future levies on banks of) FDIC funds. Depositors are safe, which is good other than depriving us of the pleasant bellyfeel of seeing dozens or hundreds of companies collapse. Existing stockholders are gonna go pound sand, pre-calamity upper management are out and won't be receiving any outstanding bonuses, bank bondholders are almost certainly? losing their investment. All in all, somewhere between "as good as could be expected" and "somewhat better than that because stabilizing the economy by offering collateralized loans nobody will take is a clever idea and very funny".
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Mar 13, 2023 04:26
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To be really clear, if you want the actual conspiracy of what the WOKE COMPANIES is about, in 2014 there was a bathroom law in NC that meant trans people couldn't use the bathroom that matched their gender. This was before groomer narratives, social contagions, JK Rowling, and Q becoming popular. There was a huge public outrcry, not just from activists, but both celebrities and companies. Paypal pulled out of a facility, musicians wouldn't play in NC, North Carolina lost nearly 4 Billion dollars from the fallout. It was a huge miscalculation and probably lost the Republicans the governor's house. Sometimes activists actually do nudge capital to shift its weight for good reasons. They're trying to hobble that from happening again. That's it. THAT is what DeSantis and his ilk are talking about when they talk about woke corporations. Let me be clear Paypal is not my friend, is not my ally. We don't need to constantly give our bonafides that corporations and capitalism are generally bad. But when fascists want something worse. They want an idealogical regulation in which capitalism exists in an even worse form, but when capital is ever used to challenge the state or conservatism, it's punished. You're not challenging power in you rally against performative woke companies. You're picking at the most meaningless problem about capitalism and propagating the language of legitimate facsists.
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Mar 13, 2023 04:27
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'Performative wokeness' was in use to describe definitely existing behaviour of individuals and corporations using social causes as shields for their personal greed and heinous acts- see also 'wokewashing', 'pinkwashing', etc etc. However, that was a bit before 'woke' became a conservative foghorn drowning out everything else.I AM GRANDO posted:Conservatives want to eliminate it by replacing it in popular understanding with a vague and impossible construction because they don’t like tools that allow nuanced understanding of, say, how and why the legal system generates bad outcomes. We think of them as morons, but they have a certain cunning when it comes to identifying threats to themselves and to creating emotional associations with words and ideas. Yep, it's controlling the very means of communication by any means possible, especially ones they have already found are successful- the evolution of the use of  to have liberals constantly on the back foot trying to appease the perpetually outraged, and in turn turning on the 'loony left' for not adhering to useless and ever-shifting rules of decorum.It literally goes back to the Red Scare and narrowing the Overton Window by making concepts and words thought-terminating cliches that completely shut down discourse. It's not a new tactic. It's one they've spent over a century refining. The Southern Strategy comes to mind- and how they never want to let progressives take control of the discourse again.
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Mar 13, 2023 05:52
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The quoted tweet here has one of the people who had a lot of money in svb and it looks like they chicken littled themselves into the bank run. Even in the middle of the bank run he was part he still tried to buy the dip in the middle of the run. https://twitter.com/evanhill/status/1634933065079492610
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Mar 13, 2023 05:55
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Be Your Own Bank Run
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Mar 13, 2023 06:01
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What is called when you do insider trading but manage to lose a poo poo ton of money in the process?
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Mar 13, 2023 06:05
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KillHour posted:What is called when you do insider trading but manage to lose a poo poo ton of money in the process? insider trading badly
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Mar 13, 2023 06:21
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Ghost Leviathan posted:'Performative wokeness' was in use to describe definitely existing behaviour of individuals and corporations using social causes as shields for their personal greed and heinous acts- see also 'wokewashing', 'pinkwashing', etc etc. However, that was a bit before 'woke' became a conservative foghorn drowning out everything else. I am not following you, how does the Southern Strategy work into this argument? Richard Nixon, who did nothing wrong (except some treason and war crimes), didn't so much steal the narrative there but he exploited what was already there, the horrible racism. If anything, I'd look at Ronnie Reagan accusingly for mis-used narratives and turning the voices of a generation awry.
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Mar 13, 2023 08:42
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pencilhands posted:Actually, critical race theory is a cross-disciplinary examination – by social and civil-rights scholars and activists – of how laws, social and political movements, and media shape, and are shaped by, social conceptions of race and ethnicity. It is only taught in very advanced graduate level classes at research universities, and as conservatives understand it does not exist. Y…yes? That is the point. I think you may have misunderstood the purpose of that post. The bolded in particular is precisely why it’s functionally interchangeable with woke, post modernism, etc in conservative discourse. None of it means anything. If you try to corner them on what any of these terms mean they will flail wildly. I should know, I’ve done it over and over in the deep south.
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Mar 13, 2023 10:20
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The new BTFP from the FDIC feels like it should stop any risk the bank’s have from long dated securities assets mismatched against short term deposit liabilities. So why is First Republic bank down 70% (!) pre-market? That’s a move that implies we aren’t out of the failing banks woods yet. A few others are looking shaky too. Are traders wrong, or was Sunday’s backstop not enough to stop this from boiling over?
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Mar 13, 2023 12:08
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coelomate posted:The new BTFP from the FDIC feels like it should stop any risk the bank’s have from long dated securities assets mismatched against short term deposit liabilities. Never underestimate the power of stupid.
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Mar 13, 2023 12:18
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coelomate posted:The new BTFP from the FDIC feels like it should stop any risk the bank’s have from long dated securities assets mismatched against short term deposit liabilities. https://www.wsj.com/articles/first-republic-hit-by-svb-failure-7431495e "Unlike SVB, where the biggest divergence is in its portfolio of debt securities, First Republic’s gap mostly is in its loan book." seems like the Treasury measure won't be enough in this case?
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Mar 13, 2023 12:38
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Rappaport posted:I am not following you, how does the Southern Strategy work into this argument? Richard Nixon, who did nothing wrong (except some treason and war crimes), didn't so much steal the narrative there but he exploited what was already there, the horrible racism. If anything, I'd look at Ronnie Reagan accusingly for mis-used narratives and turning the voices of a generation awry. I meant that as a counterpoint; the right being forced to adjust their messaging in response to outright racism becoming a liability. Actually, that fits too: the use of dogwhistles and ever-changing ambiguous snarl words to cover for outright bigotry in ways liberals trying to appeal to supposed moderates couldn't openly call out.
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Mar 13, 2023 13:01
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SVB was offering 12% ROI before its collapse. Can someone explain to me how depositors who chose this bank based on ROI were depositing, and not investing? Should there be a threshold where the FDIC differentiates between money parked for ease of access/use, vs. an obvious investment strategy that should assume all the associated risks?
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Mar 13, 2023 13:37
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Is there a good reason to think that there aren't other banks that would have the same problem as SVB? (MBSs that underperform based on raising rates?) But yeaaa.....$FRC is not looking good. E: Western Alliance and PacWest are also getting smoked premarket cr0y fucked around with this message at 14:17 on Mar 13, 2023 |
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Mar 13, 2023 14:12
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skylined! posted:SVB was offering 12% ROI before its collapse. Can someone explain to me how depositors who chose this bank based on ROI were depositing, and not investing? Should there be a threshold where the FDIC differentiates between money parked for ease of access/use, vs. an obvious investment strategy that should assume all the associated risks? This is absurd and obviously not true. Their checking account interest rate was the same dogshit 1% or whatever any bank was offering. What garbage source made you believe that?
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Mar 13, 2023 14:18
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coelomate posted:This is absurd and obviously not true. Their checking account interest rate was the same dogshit 1% or whatever any bank was offering. Excuse me, 4.5% on savings/money market accounts targeted at 'smaller' startups; the 12% ROI is their general return on investments. The garbage source is their website and public financial statements.
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Mar 13, 2023 15:03
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cr0y posted:Is there a good reason to think that there aren't other banks that would have the same problem as SVB? (MBSs that underperform based on raising rates?) SVB was somewhat unique in that its client base was startups, who deposit money (good) but don't usually borrow money, as they're being funded by venture capitalists. other banks, hopefully, have a more diversified business and do a lot more lending, which should lower their exposure to bond interest risk.
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Mar 13, 2023 15:37
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skylined! posted:The garbage source is their website and public financial statements. The garbage source doesn't say what you said it did.
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Mar 13, 2023 15:39
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It seems like there is market panic, but in practical terms I don't think there is reason to believe that the issues with the books for Silicon Valley are reflective of how every other bank is run. Not really clear whether the stock market will decide to be rational in the near future, but even if there are more bank runs I don't think there is much reason to believe that people will lose deposits. Pretty telling that this happened shortly after the extended conversation about the Fed raising rates to tamp down inflation and not caring if recession is the result - 0ing out a bunch of stocks is ONE way to reduce excess savings I guess! Edit: please don't go for another round of explaining the difference between aggregate savings and the excess savings rate or whatever, no one cares and that level of technical detail isn't necessary to get the broad strokes of anything If someone wants to have a data-baaed derail, can we have a conversation about how property values have been moving over the last several years and why rents have been the component of the inflation basket that is driving the overall trend? My recollection of the macro trends is that rising mortgage interest rates should lead to falling property values as: A. The number of people in the market to buy decreases B. The attractiveness of real estate as an investment option decrease relative to the higher-interest government bonds C. The prices of properties goes down due to reduced demand and the factual reality of what monthly payments people can afford being roughly the same (but the purchase price has to be lower since interest makes up a larger portion). I suppose the short-term trend is that if we think of monthly mortgage payments and rents as substitute goods we can see that, with some price stickiness on sale prices for houses there would be an increase in price for an equivalent mortgage payment, allowing for a corresponding increase in rent, but in the longer-term we should be expecting this to level off and eventually fall unless renters/sellers are colluding (deliberately or "accidentally" through price-setting tools like Zillow estimates or whatever algo the management companies use to price their apartments) BougieBitch fucked around with this message at 15:52 on Mar 13, 2023 |
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Mar 13, 2023 15:40
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skylined! posted:Excuse me, 4.5% on savings/money market accounts targeted at 'smaller' startups; the 12% ROI is their general return on investments. The garbage source is their website and public financial statements. 4.5% is a pretty good rate for a money market account but it’s not outlandishly high. It is also astronomically different from the 12% that was incorrectly presented originally. There is no credible argument to be made that getting 4.5% on a money market account constitutes excessive risk taking.
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Mar 13, 2023 15:44
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Timeless Appeal posted:I dunno. My wife works for a pretty old and large accounting firm in North Carolina that also does a lot of the same community building business and takes pro-social justice stances. I think a lot of offices just become pretty cosmopolitan by sheer size and scope even if they're in more conservative regions. That's true. But the fascists are stuck in a bit of a bind - they're furious that big business is largely okay with gay people, but for various ideological and practical reasons they can't really go all-in on becoming an anti-business party. So they've settled on picking particular big businesses and industries to pile all their anger on as scapegoats, and making a very public example of those scapegoats in an attempt to discourage other businesses. For example, the DeSantis crusade against Disney. skylined! posted:Excuse me, 4.5% on savings/money market accounts targeted at 'smaller' startups; the 12% ROI is their general return on investments. The garbage source is their website and public financial statements. A quick Google suggests that 4.5% APY is not absurd for a money market account. A bit on the high side, but not ridiculously so.
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Mar 13, 2023 15:48
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Most importantly, a money market fund is a blend of investment grade securities and commerical paper and bla bla bla. It is not a bank deposit. Anyone holding an account at SVB in a money market fund was at 0 risk of losing money at any point.
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Mar 13, 2023 15:57
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I'm irritated by all the hypocritical wailing and gnashing of teeth from the exact assholes that last week would have been furiously masturbating in celebration about disrupting some new paradigm and firing half the country to save a buck then telling them they should boot straps and learn to code their way in to a new job. Now it's those rear end in a top hat's money on the line and I'm supposed to believe they're suddenly deeply concerned about the impact this will have on all those poor innocent victims of payroll that are threatened by not getting a paycheck. Give me a god drat break. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 13, 2023 15:58
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Timeless Appeal posted:To be really clear, if you want the actual conspiracy of what the WOKE COMPANIES is about, in 2014 there was a bathroom law in NC that meant trans people couldn't use the bathroom that matched their gender. This was before groomer narratives, social contagions, JK Rowling, and Q becoming popular. There was a huge public outrcry, not just from activists, but both celebrities and companies. Paypal pulled out of a facility, musicians wouldn't play in NC, North Carolina lost nearly 4 Billion dollars from the fallout. It was a huge miscalculation and probably lost the Republicans the governor's house. Sometimes activists actually do nudge capital to shift its weight for good reasons. They're trying to hobble that from happening again. That's it. I think the outsized political effects of big businesses throwing their weight around is bad in general, the right just wants it to not happen for ideas they don't like instead of not happening at all
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Mar 13, 2023 16:19
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Google Jeb Bush posted:Looking like the FDIC is successfully doing its thing despite the kickoff of the festivities being... suboptimal. I’m a little confused by this. Between SVB and Signature there is over 200B in uninsured deposits, correct? How much does the FDIC have lying around? If it’s not enough, how long will it take to make the depositors whole?
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Mar 13, 2023 16:20
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Ghost Leviathan posted:I meant that as a counterpoint; the right being forced to adjust their messaging in response to outright racism becoming a liability. Actually, that fits too: the use of dogwhistles and ever-changing ambiguous snarl words to cover for outright bigotry in ways liberals trying to appeal to supposed moderates couldn't openly call out. I see. I'm sorry for misreading you!
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Mar 13, 2023 16:51
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bird food bathtub posted:I'm irritated by all the hypocritical wailing and gnashing of teeth from the exact assholes that last week would have been furiously masturbating in celebration about disrupting some new paradigm and firing half the country to save a buck then telling them they should boot straps and learn to code their way in to a new job. Now it's those rear end in a top hat's money on the line and I'm supposed to believe they're suddenly deeply concerned about the impact this will have on all those poor innocent victims of payroll that are threatened by not getting a paycheck. A lot of people running startups are both FYGM assholes and idiots who don't understand the economy beyond mainlining Reddit and libertarian rags. However, there is absolutely no upside to "oops, banks suddenly don't work anymore." We should all be relieved that the fed stepped in and made sure depositors are made whole. Even if you don't like who those depositors are. Bad things happening to people you don't like isn't always a good thing. The real question is "are we going to learn from this and bring back Dodd Frank?" lol hell no
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Mar 13, 2023 17:10
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Starks posted:I’m a little confused by this. Between SVB and Signature there is over 200B in uninsured deposits, correct? How much does the FDIC have lying around? If it’s not enough, how long will it take to make the depositors whole? Oversimplified model of SVB: 200 bill in checking accounts (demand deposits - these are liabilities. They got the cash at some point, but now owe it back to depositors at a moment's notice) 50 billion in actual cash money sitting around 150 billion in "hold to maturity" 5 year treasuries each paying 1% interest At a glance that balances, right? 200 bill liabilities, 200 bill assets unfortunately that hold to maturity portfolio has lost a lot of current value due to rising rates. Because rates are much higher now than they were then, you couldn't sell your 150 billion in 5 year treasuries paying 1% for 150 billion. You could sell them for maaaaybe 125 billion. Then last Friday, people withdrew 42 billion from SVB. Uh oh! They won't be able to keep honoring deposits without selling those long term "hold to maturity" bonds, and if they do that while they are worth less, they just straight up won't have enough money to handle all withdrawals. So the FDIC shuts the bank and guarnatees depositors. But it didn't cost $200 billion. The absolute worst case scenario where 0 depositors stick around is like, maybe 25 billion in actual loss. And there are a lot of loans and other gimmicks in play to make it require even less money. The FDIC had ~150 bil on hand and ~100 bil in line of credit from the treasury at the start of last week. It can absolutely handle a handful of these without dipping into emergency powers or congressional action.
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Mar 13, 2023 17:13
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Captain Oblivious posted:Lmao this is complete conservative fanfiction. It has never been about “instinctively understanding it as a system of double standards”. It’s just the new liberal. No, I think people understand that the same group who spent four years lecturing about a pro-rape party and that black lives actually matter turned around and voted for a rapist/cop presidential ticket. As I said, when actual power is up for grabs, progressive dogma becomes fluid.
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Mar 13, 2023 17:16
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I feel like my little 401k is never going to recover from our never-ending string of bullshit financial crises. I try not to even look at it anymore because it's more of an experiment than something that will provide meaningful support. By the time I'm too old to work it will probably be just as worthless as social security will be.
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Mar 13, 2023 17:27
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Dick Trauma posted:I feel like my little 401k is never going to recover from our never-ending string of bullshit financial crises. I try not to even look at it anymore because it's more of an experiment than something that will provide meaningful support. By the time I'm too old to work it will probably be just as worthless as social security will be. Nah, it'll probably grow 6-10% per year on average, and the most money to be earned is by continuing to invest steadily in moments like this where everything seems bleak. See, e.g., every other time this has happened.
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Mar 13, 2023 17:37
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Google Jeb Bush posted:Regarding specifically SVB and Signature, Signature was pretty shocking, I wonder if there was nonpublic information the feds became aware of. I worked with Signature pretty closely in my old job, they held a pretty unique role in the crypto space. Basically they helped automate burning and minting of USDC as well as helping exchanges and traders settle the fiat leg of crypto trades.
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Mar 13, 2023 17:38
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https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1635291796627660801 I posted about this a few weeks ago when it looked likely to be approved, but it looks like it is official. There's really no way to defend the Biden administration here - their claims of fighting climate change is pure nonsense in the face of stuff like this.
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Mar 13, 2023 17:41
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Starks posted:I’m a little confused by this. Between SVB and Signature there is over 200B in uninsured deposits, correct? How much does the FDIC have lying around? If it’s not enough, how long will it take to make the depositors whole? Remember the FDIC and receivership process exists to make sure the banks wind down before the uncovered liability is that large. The way this is being covered is to basically force the banking industry as a whole to pay it off via a short term 0% loan from the federal reserve, exact sum to be determined after assets are sold off. The actual uncovered liability is only between 20 and 50 billion. Normally FDIC assessment is supposed to catch this before they hit the hard stop and force a buyout or closure while coverage for deposits from portfolio balance is still positive. This happened because a huge portion of their depositors were in a IRC or something and panicked all at once, and the sales svb had to make to meet their reserve requirements from those withdrawals forced them to recalculate their portfolio value with long term below low yield treasuries in a different categorie with a way lower value. They also sold treasuries at a loss because of the below current yield. The FDIC has a lot of backing mechanism, so the answers are 1(how much can you extract from the banking industry without a general collapse and 2(how much can the fed give as a line of credit against future values of answer 1. Basically, infinite money, because the FDIC exists to maintain depositors confidence in the banking system. Without the FDIC you could not maintain a capitalist system after a bank run, it's just designed to remove the same amount of money later.
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Mar 13, 2023 17:44
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TheDisreputableDog posted:No, I think people understand that the same group who spent four years lecturing about a pro-rape party and that black lives actually matter turned around and voted for a rapist/cop presidential ticket. As I said, when actual power is up for grabs, progressive dogma becomes fluid. Most people think being "woke" is good, it's only commonly understood as meaning "bad liberal" if you're conservative because it's their new shibboleth. It's probably partially because they use it against everything (including banks which is what started this tangent lol) that it doesn't have a widespread negative connotation
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Mar 13, 2023 17:46
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics is going to release first pass February CPI figures tomorrow morning. I suspect it's going to cause a lot of chaos. The bank run danger could be complicating the ability to try to "fix" inflation by interest rate hikes. Just like in other countries (like the UK's recent pension plan fiasco), way more of our financial systems seems vulnerable to chaos as we move away from zero (or in Europe and Japan's case, sub-zero) interest rates.
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Mar 13, 2023 17:51
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